PatsFans.com - Mobile
PatsFans.com
Search

Idle thoughts - "When a win is worse than a loss" edition.

2021 Patriots Season:
Upcoming Opponent:
Next Up: vs Jets
Pick Results: NYJ: 3.1% at NE: 96.9%

Sun
Oct 24th

Current Patriots Twitter Feed:

DaBruinz

Pats, B's, Sox
PatsFans.com Supporter
I think the D is going to round into shape next year. Not a great unit right now but theres alot to build off: Great secondary, some young exciting players (Winovich, Duggar, Butler, Uche, Jackson etc). But, just an opinion... A few reinforcements along DL are absolutely needed.
Butler is a UFA. Hopefully, the Pats and he can get a deal done. Same goes for Guy. It's highly likely the Patriots draft a DT/NT in the first round.

While Davis looked to be a good for a NT, the concussion issues mean he's unlikely to be back.
 

luuked

Hall of Fame Poster
i think there will be several "good" QB's available this off season. I suspect Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz will be two. The jets are in a blood bath, Gase will be fired at the latest by season's end. New coach and maybe GM will want their own people. And I suspect with the relative success that Herbert, Tua, and a few others, Lurie will want to push Hurts to start. I think Trubiski is as good as gone. Stafford also, maybe.

I'm not saying any of these would be a good fit in NE, but definitely better options than CN. He just doesn't have it anymore.

That's where I come in ask which players ?

You mention Wentz. The Eagles can't trade or cut him until 2022. If they do at the end of this year they will inherit dead cap hit of over 77m. Even as a post 6/1 cut it is still way too much money for a franchise that is over 63m ABOVE the cap for next year using a 175M projection. If we are talking trade it doesn't change too much of their calculation (they'd only save about 1m and still have about 50m in dead space). So they will want a significant asset for that player.

You mention Darnold. Why would the Jets send a young QB to their division rivals for anything but substantial assets ? And if you agree to do that you essentially are saying screw drafting a QB early we are for the next two years in the Darnold business.

More veteran options will cost you assets as well as around 13-17m in APY as contract.

Once you stop thinking about all of this in a dreamland kinda way but check out Spotrac or Overthecap and understand the implications it is pretty clear that there are not too many viable options out there. Fitzpatrick who is 38 might be the most suitable choice among QB FAs if you think Cam is the wrong choice. And that's not a great situation to be in.
 

luuked

Hall of Fame Poster
I hope we can see Asiasi in CA, and Keene shortly thereafter, to know if one or both are in the long-term plans. Obviously need a top end WR, hopefully a FA.

I don't think anything that happens this year -- outside of a catastrophic injury -- would affect the long term plans the Pats have with both Asiasi and Keene. They were in a horrifically tough situation to begin with when there was no proper offseason activities and only a toned down version of camp. And then were going through injuries throughout the season.

If anything I would expect them to hit the ground running next year after this borderline redshirt year.
 

ctpatsfan77

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
Here's the thing. I don't think Bill is going to dump Cam. Good playing, bad playing Cam is still the leader of the team. From all reports he's a been a great teammate. But I do think that the leash is a lot shorter now than it was yesterday. There is a part of me that wants to see what Stidham has got before the whole " sell all the franchise's assets to draft a QB high" crowd takes over the place. BB moved on from a $100MM QB I don't think he'll be afraid to move on from a $1MM QB.

People don't want to make excuses for any player, but Cam has more than a few he COULD claim for his very inconsistent performances. We all know them, so I won't waste time repeating them. But I can't help but wonder what Cam could be with a full off season and a 2nd year in the system.
The question is can they find a contract that makes sense for both sides? He's clearly worth more than what they're paying him this year, but his current level of play isn't worth $20M+ a year, either.
 

One-If-By-Sea

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
I don't think anything that happens this year -- outside of a catastrophic injury -- would affect the long term plans the Pats have with both Asiasi and Keene. They were in a horrifically tough situation to begin with when there was no proper offseason activities and only a toned down version of camp. And then were going through injuries throughout the season.

If anything I would expect them to hit the ground running next year after this borderline redshirt year.

Agreed. But I hope that I can see them play a bit, since I can not watch practice, to see if they are going to plug the TE hole(s). My curiosity, which I know BB couldn't care less about, but I care about my own enquiring mind :) . If they are both going to stick, I can skip @BaconGrundleCandy 's TE Draft review ;).
 

One-If-By-Sea

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
That has been one of the more insightful takes on what's going on with his inconsistency and terrible short throws. Interesting.

I see it a little differently but essentially the same take as @KontradictioN. Cam's legs are so shot he does not have the leg strength left to overcome his atrocious footwork. I would guess his legs are still stronger than Brady's legs, but Brady's footwork is so much better than Cam's he is still going at 43. Without the footwork, Cam's decreased leg strength = cooked. I am sure his shoulder problems contribute too as he contorts his body to throw.

Also interesting that Cam's and Gronk's legs are gone at 30 years of age. Not sure that would have been true with earlier generations. Because the defense is hitting low to avoid head contact, their legs gave out at 29 or 30 which is earlier I think (I have not done any analysis). Cam and Gronk avoided possible brain injury and lost their legs. I would be curious if Cam and Gronk were asked today if they could have previously signed a legal medical waiver to avoid the lower leg tackles, would they have done that to extend their careers, or are they happy the upper body tackles were avoided? I am sure there are lots of guys this applies to, Gronk and Cam are the big names.
 

One-If-By-Sea

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
The question is can they find a contract that makes sense for both sides? He's clearly worth more than what they're paying him this year, but his current level of play isn't worth $20M+ a year, either.

I do not think his contract is out of line with what we saw Sunday (Cam earns up to $6,5M with incentives I think). Fitzpatrick in Miami is on a 2 year, $11M deal. As the season wears on, last Sunday might not be a one time blip, but a repeating pattern. The season wears down the older player's legs and shoulder. Look at Brady's deep ball - he is obviously not as sharp of the first 6 games.
 

mgteich

PatsFans.com Veteran
PatsFans.com Supporter
Agreed. But I hope that I can see them play a bit, since I can not watch practice, to see if they are going to plug the TE hole(s). My curiosity, which I know BB couldn't care less about, but I care about my own enquiring mind :) . If they are both going to stick, I can skip @BaconGrundleCandy 's TE Draft review ;).
We will start 2021 with our redshirts, plus Izzo, LeCosse and Burt. Sure, we may draft another (that's always worked out well), and we'll likely sign a couple of TE to compete in camp. In any case, I can't see TE as being a high priority for Belichick. He has to focus on re-signing OL's, RB's and DL's (and a couple of STers; Folk, Davis and Bethel come to mind).

He will also to need to consider the situation in the secondary, especially if the McCourty's and Chung retire/
 

Steve:Section 102

A lion isn't concerned with the opinion of sheep
PatsFans.com Supporter
i think there will be several "good" QB's available this off season. I suspect Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz will be two. The jets are in a blood bath, Gase will be fired at the latest by season's end. New coach and maybe GM will want their own people. And I suspect with the relative success that Herbert, Tua, and a few others, Lurie will want to push Hurts to start. I think Trubiski is as good as gone. Stafford also, maybe.

I'm not saying any of these would be a good fit in NE, but definitely better options than CN. He just doesn't have it anymore.
The free agent class of 2021 is not great, IMO. Prescott, Rivers, Brissett, Trubisky, Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor... Andy Dalton again. Ugh. Nick Mullens, CJ Bethard. It's a bunch of yuck. I'd like to know who the smartest, most coachable guy in that group is.

 

ctpatsfan77

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
I do not think his contract is out of line with what we saw Sunday (Cam earns up to $6,5M with incentives I think). Fitzpatrick in Miami is on a 2 year, $11M deal. As the season wears on, last Sunday might not be a one time blip, but a repeating pattern. The season wears down the older player's legs and shoulder. Look at Brady's deep ball - he is obviously not as sharp of the first 6 games.
They had to set up the contract that way because of their cap situation. If they had, say, $10M in cap space, they'd probably have given him more upfront with fewer incentives. I think they would have given him a Fitzpatrick-like contract if they could have.
 

One-If-By-Sea

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
They had to set up the contract that way because of their cap situation. If they had, say, $10M in cap space, they'd probably have given him more upfront with fewer incentives. I think they would have given him a Fitzpatrick-like contract if they could have.

Agreed. But if Cam received his incentives the total cash value in 2020 (the first year of his contract) is $6.5M, and Fitzpatrick's total cash value in 2019 (first year of his contract) is $7.0M. Very little difference in total money. The difference is Fitzpatrick's money is fully guaranteed and Cam's money is verbally committed - "work with our Cap situation and we will try to help you earn your incentives". Cam is taking the risk, not Fitzy.

People say Cam is playing for $1M which is not true. The more Cam plays the more he earns. I agree the Patriots probably give Cam more guaranteed money if they had the cap space this Spring, but right now it looks like that is very little difference in total money earned.

Given the choice of Cam or Fitzpatrick at $7M a year guaranteed, I would pick Fitzy without hesitation.
 

patfanken

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter

I've been a fav for over 40 years, in good seasons and bad. The New England Patriots have never, ever tanked. That has never been a philospophy of the team. And, IMO, that is the way it should be. Teams are paid to perform in every game. Yes, I understand holding out players late in the season to prevent injuries, but that's as far as I go.

So, for me, I ignored the rest of the post. When we don't start with a common team, I don't see the point. You propose that the Patriots change the very nature of the team, the commitment to try to win every week.
Sorry you didn't bother to read further, it would have saved you the embarrassment of complaining to someone who AGREES with you. BTW- if you want I know a great definition of sarcasm (which was what that first paragraph was). if you want me to send it to you. ;)
 

Calhoun44

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
Agreed. But if Cam received his incentives the total cash value in 2020 (the first year of his contract) is $6.5M, and Fitzpatrick's total cash value in 2019 (first year of his contract) is $7.0M. Very little difference in total money. The difference is Fitzpatrick's money is fully guaranteed and Cam's money is verbally committed - "work with our Cap situation and we will try to help you earn your incentives". Cam is taking the risk, not Fitzy.

People say Cam is playing for $1M which is not true. The more Cam plays the more he earns. I agree the Patriots probably give Cam more guaranteed money if they had the cap space this Spring, but right now it looks like that is very little difference in total money earned.

Given the choice of Cam or Fitzpatrick at $7M a year guaranteed, I would pick Fitzy without hesitation.
Not I. I think even after what I've seen, I prefer Cam. But especially since the decision would have to be made in the off season, Cam would have easily been my choice. He has made big impacts on many of the games in key moments. 5-6 is not great, but I'm not sure Fitzpatrick would be doing any better (record-wise) than Cam.
 

stcjones

Pro Bowl Player
This is a bad team who should be tanking instead of winning these close ugly games. We will all be regretting a win like this when we are picking around #20 next April. We should sit Cam, who clearly can't pass anymore after his worst passing game of his career. His footwork sucks. His accuracy is non-existent and he clearly has trouble seeing the field and his taking sacks even though the OL has done a good job protecting him.

What I have written here is NOT what I think, but it IS what you will be hearing all week from the media. So be prepared. The sky is falling. BB has lost it. The dynasty is over and it will be decades before we might see a revival. :eek: Well while some of the criticisms are valid, it surely was an ugly offensive game no question. I see a path back from purgatory and I encourage a dialog for those who disagree.

BTW- I am not going to write one of those 10,000 word jobs tonight. Just a few thoughts for discussion ....at least that's my intent. ;) So on to the list.

1. Lets start with the bad stuff.

a. Cam looked horrible. I couldn't help note that after Folk's game winning FG the stricken look of disappointment on Cam's face. It was as if he was so disappointed in his performance he couldn't bear to share in his teammates' celebration of a well deserved. He KNEW it was his worse passing game of a very good 10 year career and it clearly hurt him. I don't blame him. That's what a winner feels like when he's sucked on the field. It happens. Move on. He's the same guy who threw for 350 odd yds just last week. So while it would have been nice if he had built on that performance this week, it didn't happen. Move on.

That being said, I don't know what's going on in practice. Back in 2001 the word was that Brady was already looking better than Drew in practices preceding Drew's injury and it would have been just a matter of time before Bledsoe might have been replaced if his game didn't improve. The fact was that the offense Bill wanted to run simply suited Brady's skill set over Drew's Drew never adapted his game. Hard to teach an old dog new tricks. But I don't want to go down that rabbit hole.

Here's the thing. I don't think Bill is going to dump Cam. Good playing, bad playing Cam is still the leader of the team. From all reports he's a been a great teammate. But I do think that the leash is a lot shorter now than it was yesterday. There is a part of me that wants to see what Stidham has got before the whole " sell all the franchise's assets to draft a QB high" crowd takes over the place. BB moved on from a $100MM QB I don't think he'll be afraid to move on from a $1MM QB.

People don't want to make excuses for any player, but Cam has more than a few he COULD claim for his very inconsistent performances. We all know them, so I won't waste time repeating them. But I can't help but wonder what Cam could be with a full off season and a 2nd year in the system.

b. I've been a LONG time coming to this point, but I'm finally coming to the point where I am really worried about N'Keal Harry's future as a Patriot. He really looks lost and seems like he's completely lost his confidence.

Listen I still believe he has a future. He's a tough kid who is willing to block LB's, who is willing to go over the middle, etc. He's generally shown good hands despite his drop today. But I'm not really worried about his physical skills. I AM now worried about his head. Is this kid mentally tough enough to deal with the adversities of injuries and overcoming a bad performance. EVERY player has them. The good pros, simply move on with even greater determination to do better. The guy who are quickly out of the league are the ones who can't. I'm not sure which category Harry lies right now.

c. We are going to hear about from now until April but I'm NOT a big fan about picking a QB in the first round or god forbid mortgaging the future to move up for a can't miss "franchise QB" (Like mitch Trubisky or Wentz or Sam Darnold, or any of a dozen other QB's I could mention that have turned out to be less than their teams hoped for.

BTW - Someone in the game day thread opined that maybe it might not be a bad Idea to get Harry to put on 25 pounds of muscle and move to TE. Just a thought.

c. The running game took a step back this week. One reason was the fact the Cards were stacking 8 and 9 men at the LOS. The other was the lost of Issaih Wynn. I don't know what happened with Elumenaur, but mid way through the first period our 2 starting OT's were 6th round rookies :eek: So it was no wonder the running game wasn't going well. I saw Elumanur back in the game later, but bottom line, Wynn will be missed the next 2 game...at least.

d. The broadcast team at Fox sucked. They were clearly favoring the NFC team to the point when the announcer literally use the term "we" in describing the Cards. That explained a lot to me.

e. The refs - These guys were horrible. The call on the PR was ludicrous. It can't be a blindside hit when the 2 guys are facing each other. Right? Another key call was on Gilmore giving the Cards ANOTHER shot at a TD on a failed 3rd down play inside the 5. Sure Gilmore DID give Hopkins a slight tug that didn't interfere with his route, yet they COMPLETELY ignored the fact that Hopkins had not only pushed off early in the route, but he slammed Gilmore right in the face!!!!!! That was almost as bad as the double penalty call that gave the cards ANOTHER chance after a failed 3rd down play. These guys were REALLY inconsistent.

BTW- Some in the media are trying to intimate that the PF call on Cam that set up the winning FG was "controversial". It wasn't. Sure Cam was hit before he went out. But that WASN'T why the flag was thrown. The guy ear holed Cam with the top of his helmet. And while in my day that would have been applauded, now its clearly a foul. No controversy there at ALL!

g. Second thought - I really thought JWilliams had a great rookie year, and I even thought he looked good early in the season, but as each game has passed he seems to have become a distant after thought and that disturbs me. I want him to be good and he should be. Yet clearly he isn't getting any run. It might not be his fault. Hard for him to crack Gilmore, Jackson, JMcCourty, and JJones at CB and harder to crack a DMcCourty, Phillips and Dugger at S

h. Another last minute thought. - Can't help but to be very disappoint in the fact neither of our 2 TE draftees have managed to get on the field due to injuries. It really sucks.

The good stuff.


a. This team has a LOT of character. They have lost a lot of close game this year and have had things go bad at the worst times. Injuries, illnesses, fumbles and picks. They are in a position where they literally have to run the table if they want to guarantee themselves a playoff spot, so EVERY game is a playoff game from here on out. So no one would have been surprised if after the abysmal start they had in going behind 10-0 in the first 10 minutes of the game, they would have quit and gone through the motions. Nothing seemed to be working.
.
Well they obviously didn't quit and made a lot of really clutch plays over the course of the game. So even if you think they suck and should be tanking, this is team that is WORTHY of our full support. They have a lot of grit and determination.

b. I think Winovich, Uche, and Simon will give us a solid OLB corps for the next several years. Uche is starting to make a difference. Winovich could be a star in the making and Simon is as solid as they come.

c. Adam Butler had his best game as a Patriot. I don't know what they were putting in his chocolate milk while he was out, but I want some in my milk. That kid was on fire. I was worried when I saw Cowart was out. I needn't have. Adam proved solid support in the run game and consistent pressure up the middle.

BTW- Lawrence Guy could be the most under rated defensive lineman in the league. Week in and Week out he gives this team a great effort and solid production and no one seems to notice.

d. The secondary (along with the DL pressure) held a very explosive and talented Cardinal offense to just 170 yds passing. A special shout out should go to Gilmore who held the best receiver in the NFL to a VERY quiet 55 yds on 5 catches. Most of those were on 10 yd outs when it looked like Gilmore was in zone. There were a LOT of fantasy players who are very sad tonight. ;)

e. Very nice game by a guy I've been pretty critical of this year. JBentley led the team with 13 tackles and was a rock on the inside. If they can keep him out of passing game or protect him, he can develop into a good run stopper.

f. DHarris had his worst game in a while but I love him more every time I see him run.

g. Dugger is going to be a good one. He's going to be an impact safety down the road and likely the guy who keeps Patrick Chung in retirement in NH. He's another of the young guys who make me happy.

h. And while we really might have the worst set of WR's in the league, Jakobi Myers is turning out to be a solid option running constant routes and getting open despite his speed deficiencies. And the more I see of Jamir Bird, the more I like him. HE seems to be improving as the season goes on.


3; Other thoughts.

a. The Pats are looking at a 2 week stay on the west coast coming up in games against a very winnable Chargers and the very tough Rams a week later. They they play the AFC in each of their last 3 games. They will likely be underdogs in 3 of those games (Rams, Bills, and Dolphins) All those games will be close and the Pats will have a punchers shot in every game. 10-6 is possible, though 8-8 is more likely. But here's the thing. Even if they don't make the playoffs this season, I don't see this team as being far from being back in the championship mix. Here's why.

b. For the first time in decades, the cap is going to drop to 175M next season. For the few teams WITH cap space the FA market will be deep and offer a lot of great bargains because there will be a number of teams who are going to have to let go good players to get under the cap and other might be able to keep their own guys, but will not be able to bid for any new guys. IF what we been led to believe is true, the Pats will be among those few teams with relatively a lot of space to pick up 2 or 3 QUALITY players that could make immediate impacts on areas of need for this team.

c. This team needs speed at WR. This team needs speed at ILB. This team needs bulk on the DL THERE WILL be quality players who fill these needs available next March and the Pats will have room to acquire some and the market will be flush with so many that it should be good time to be a buyer.d

d. i. This defense seems to be getting better or at least capable to stop 2 of 3 very good QB's running dynamic offensive systems. Its not going to take too much to push it to the next level

Bill creates winning teams with winning attitudes. It is never a surpirse to him when they win. He gives them what they need to do in order to win a game, and gets them to believe that if they do those things, they will win the game. So Bill is NEVER going to tank any game they suit up for. He still believes that adage that it is the best TEAM ,not the most talent that wins football games. AND while he'd rather have Julio Jones and DHopkiins as his WR's, he's shown he can win MULTIPLE Superbowls with some other guys who aren't household names. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if he hired someone this off season who has some experience in some of the "Air Raid" kind of offensive concepts that the Pats aren't familiar with on offense.

e. I just got an Alexa thing from Amazon and I can't believe I ever existed without it. Is that sad????? ;). OK I've rambled enough. I'm going to thoroughly enjoy this win and look forward to the next one.
I thought you said you were NOT going to write one of those 10,000 word diatribes here.....this is 30,000!!!! Just kidding around...some great points here Ken....i admire your passion!
 

1960Pats

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
  • Special teams was clearly the star unit of the day. 2 great run backs, exceptional punts and clutch FG.
  • Whether most of the "big calls" were technically correct or not I did not like them. Penalties seem too random and too punitive. The defensive holdings, block on punt and personal foul on Cam run all directly led to points and all were subjective. Defensive players already have it hard enough w/o restricting them even further.
  • The team needs to figure out a better plan for Cam. Continue to be surprised at his lack of pocket awareness and inability to run out of it. He rarely scrambles away from trouble and actually seems to move into it.
  • Am afraid run game will continue to suffer if they cannot create some sort of passing threat. Really feel like they need to get Harris more involved in passing game. Get him isolated on LB in the flat and pick up some easy 7 or 8 yards gains.
I agree about the calls but not the hit on Cam. I can't stomach the head hunting and that was clearly one of those. I don't root for injuries, but when I see a gutless play like that I don't have much empathy for the offender if he gets hurt. That happened in the Bills game. I also get the feeling that players go for the head more if they know a player has been concussed in the past.

Cant Newton does the little things as well as the big things poorly. One of his swing passes to White was a perfect example. He threw it so high that White had to leap for it. In the NYFL little things like that turn a possible big play into nothing. I'll be hugely disappointed if he's our starter again next year, at any price.
 

Uptown

Standin' Pat
This is not a bad team. We’re a decent QB and a good WR away from being 8-2. We have a top 5 defense (that is getting better) and a top 5 rushing offense. I can’t think of a team that ever had those two qualities and was bad.

We stand to gain much more by winning and attracting like minded free agents than moving up a few slots in what will be a crapshoot of a draft due to COVID.
Actually, as of Sunday morning our defense ranked dead last in DVOA; though I’m sure the offensive (lack of) production plays a significant role.
 

1960Pats

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
Sorry OP - your post was too long for me on a Monday AM, however, just to address your first paragraph (Yes, I know it was in jest/sarcastic).

"Tanking" may be the most idiotic idea I've ever heard thrown out there for the Pats. You are willing to destroy a culture/brand built up over 20 years to draft Justin Fields or Zach Wilson? Every one of these QBs were selected outside the top 10 (Mahomes was #10 I think).

Mahomes
Brady
Wilson
Rodgers
Brees
Jackson
Watson
Carr
Big Ben

So for me? Absolutely not. Play every game to win... instill a winning culture on our young players. I already like what I am seeing from many of our recent draft picks: Harris, Meyers, Uche, Bentley, Jackson, Duggar etc..
Why is there a RB on that list? ;)
 

1960Pats

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
Actually, as of Sunday morning our defense ranked dead last in DVOA; though I’m sure the offensive (lack of) production plays a significant role.
Whatever DVOA is I don't like it. The Pats are rated 12th in points allowed, which with an offense rated 27th is pretty good.
 

Uptown

Standin' Pat
Whatever DVOA is I don't like it. The Pats are rated 12th in points allowed, which with an offense rated 27th is pretty good.
It’s a pretty decent metric for a team’s “story.” However, our offense has been so inept at times/combined with many significant opt-outs, that I tend to take this particular one with a grain of salt.
 

Top