Idle thoughts - "When a win is worse than a loss" edition.

[1960Pats]

It’s a pretty decent metric for a team’s “story.” However, our offense has been so inept at times/combined with many significant opt-outs, that I tend to take this particular one with a grain of salt.

One major factor that I see is the lack of takeaways. Does that figure into the DVOA?

 

[borg]

Not I. I think even after what I've seen, I prefer Cam. But especially since the decision would have to be made in the off season, Cam would have easily been my choice. He has made big impacts on many of the games in key moments. 5-6 is not great, but I'm not sure Fitzpatrick would be doing any better (record-wise) than Cam.

Help me out on these "many big impacts" you refer to.

His game-crushing fumble vs Buffalo?
His 5 picks vs SF & Denver?
His 'hold the ball forever' drive-crushing sacks?
His goal line failure vs Seattle?
His 1 WR TD pass in 10 games?

He does deserve credit for the nice scramble for 15 yds + surviving a head shot vs Ariz....after his 8 completion / 84 yd passing afternoon.
He does deserve credit for his double digit QB sneaks vs Mia to open the season
And he deserves credit for his bold fashion statements every Sunday

 

[luuked]

I see it a little differently but essentially the same take as @KontradictioN. Cam's legs are so shot he does not have the leg strength left to overcome his atrocious footwork. I would guess his legs are still stronger than Brady's legs, but Brady's footwork is so much better than Cam's he is still going at 43. Without the footwork, Cam's decreased leg strength = cooked. I am sure his shoulder problems contribute too as he contorts his body to throw.

The thing is that I don't know if any of it is true or not. But it is introspective and makes for a more interesting discussion than the other stuff you hear which is just describing and whining about the symptoms (e.g. accuracy, touch, missing reads).

 

[luuked]

One major factor that I see is the lack of takeaways. Does that figure into the DVOA?

Of course there are penalties attached to turnovers or negative plays.

DVOA takes every single play into account and compares it to the league average for similar situations. Older games get reweighted and contribute less to your DVOA score over time.

It is arguably the only really good summary stat for football teams. Mostly because they account for teams having different schedules and opponents by comparing against the average.

The main problem as with every statistical approach to football is that with only 16 games a year the sample size is just too small.

Methods To Our Madness | Football Outsiders

An explanation of Football Outsiders' advanced statistics.

www.footballoutsiders.com

 

[p8ryts]

Nice thoughts!
I think I am alone, but believe that our receivers have some grit and potential. If we could get a tight end option that could even get 2-3 catches a game it would do wonders for all of them.

Yes, I like Myers and Byrd, Cam limits their effectiveness. Ready to see Moncrief, Zuber, Ford or Wilkerson(?) supplant Harry.

 

[jdlboot14]

Bottom line - either BB or JMD (or combined) are high round WR-killers. They have ZERO ability to adjust and maximize natural talent at that position. If we had drafted Metcalf instead of Harry, he'd be riding the bench and sulking, and gone by year 3 just like Harry will be. It's so aggravating, but it's the way it is. Pats are a scheme-based offense week to week, and you have to find smart, selfless over-achievers to work in it. Those guys don't come in the top rounds. Troy Brown, Welker, Edelman, and now guys like Meyers and Byrd have to have the character and work ethic to fight to survive. Moss was THE rare exception - because he was out to prove the world wrong (and was an established vet). I never want to see a top 2-round WR being drafted again. Work with hidden gems, and keep bringing in underrated FA's. This is the way. (although I hate it)

 

[captain stone]

We will start 2021 with our redshirts, plus Izzo, LeCosse and Burt. Sure, we may draft another (that's always worked out well), and we'll likely sign a couple of TE to compete in camp. In any case, I can't see TE as being a high priority for Belichick. He has to focus on re-signing OL's, RB's and DL's (and a couple of STers; Folk, Davis and Bethel come to mind).

He will also to need to consider the situation in the secondary, especially if the McCourty's and Chung retire/

What in the world have these 5 stiffs done to lower Bill's (or at least a rational executive's) priority for this position? He has to focus on...RBs...ahead of TEs?!? And I don't want Bill to sign a couple more of them who are only capable of merely "competing" in camp; I want Bill to acquire a #1-CALIBER TE and leave ALL the others already here to "compete" for the other spots...

 

[Brotherblues]

Thoughts on your thoughts:

1. Simon is 30, so I would not use him as an example for optimism several years down the road. Wino and Uche do bring a ton of hope.

2. There's always a very high risk of ending up with the Darnolds and Rosens and Trubiskis of the world, but a first round QB is still by far a team's best chance of finding a player who can give you top-12 production at the position. With just an extra pair of semi reliable pass catchers, I think this team will offer a great environment for grooming a young qb.

3. Couldn't agree more about the team's grit. They're winning through sheer toughness, and superior preparation/coaching.

 

[Calhoun44]

Help me out on these "many big impacts" you refer to.

His game-crushing fumble vs Buffalo?
His 5 picks vs SF & Denver?
His 'hold the ball forever' drive-crushing sacks?
His goal line failure vs Seattle?
His 1 WR TD pass in 10 games?

He does deserve credit for the nice scramble for 15 yds + surviving a head shot vs Ariz....after his 8 completion / 84 yd passing afternoon.
He does deserve credit for his double digit QB sneaks vs Mia to open the season
And he deserves credit for his bold fashion statements every Sunday

Gotta take the bad with the good.
I'm okay with 5-6 right now considering all the turnover and two game stretch with no practice. Of course I wish those negative plays never happened, but a lot of those close games may not have been possible without some of the scrambles and throws that he did make. Still even with Brady this team is no better than 7-4, probably 6-5 based on last year's struggles and the loss of Jules.

 

[jdlboot14]

Gotta take the bad with the good.
I'm okay with 5-6 right now considering all the turnover and two game stretch with no practice. Of course I wish those negative plays never happened, but a lot of those close games may not have been possible without some of the scrambles and throws that he did make. Still even with Brady this team is no better than 7-4, probably 6-5 based on last year's struggles and the loss of Jules.

I can't agree there. Brady would have won the BUF, DEN, HOU games. Sure, he can't extend the scrambling plays like Cam, but he's good for extending about 50% of the drives Cam stalls because of insanely bad throws. The ONLY variable is if Brady would have been willing to play with Meyers/Byrd as his top options. But, he'd have gotten a lot more out of Harris as the lead back with a legit play action game.

 

[sb1]

I can't agree there. Brady would have won the BUF, DEN, HOU games. Sure, he can't extend the scrambling plays like Cam, but he's good for extending about 50% of the drives Cam stalls because of insanely bad throws. The ONLY variable is if Brady would have been willing to play with Meyers/Byrd as his top options. But, he'd have gotten a lot more out of Harris as the lead back with a legit play action game.

They'd be better than 5-6 with Brady but they'd still be far from a team that can contend with the Chiefs and other teams for a title. I'm not even convinced anymore they'd be a playoff team with him.

Brady's 12-4 mark last year undoubtedly benefited from a great defense and a very easy schedule. That great defense is long gone and the schedule is much harder. Would be much tougher for him to win a ring here compared to his current team.

 

[jdlboot14]

They'd be better than 5-6 with Brady but they'd still be far from a team that can contend with the Chiefs and other teams for a title. I'm not even convinced anymore they'd be a playoff team with him.

Brady's 12-4 mark last year undoubtedly benefited from a great defense and a very easy schedule. That great defense is long gone and the schedule is much harder. Would be much tougher for him to win a ring here compared to his current team.

I agree. This team is not a contender with or without Brady this year. Our OL and Secondary is solid. Our DL and RB group is serviceable. Our LB and WR is weak (but better next year). Our QB and TE situation is the worst in the league.

 

[Nunchucks]

I think Brady would do well here, with the improved OL and Harris running the ball. But, hr wasn't coming back and thats okay

 

[mgteich]

Sorry you didn't bother to read further, it would have saved you the embarrassment of complaining to someone who AGREES with you. BTW- if you want I know a great definition of sarcasm (which was what that first paragraph was). if you want me to send it to you.

I usually recognize sarcasm. I apologize for missing it this time.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, I like Myers and Byrd, Cam limits their effectiveness. Ready to see Moncrief, Zuber, Ford or Wilkerson(?) supplant Harry.

Meyers, Byrd, Zuber/Ford/Moncrief would continue to be the worst set of receivers in the NFL, at least among contenders.

 

[Kontradiction]

Meyers, Byrd, Zuber/Ford/Moncrief would continue to be the worst set of receivers in the NFL, at least among contenders.

To be fair, Philly still has a shot at the division and they may actually be worse than us at the position.

 

[PF_SU]

To be fair, Philly still has a shot at the division and they may actually be worse than us at the position.

They have 2 wins less in the win column and have even less offensive production. Comparing on the basis of "they still have a shot at the division" is like comparing apples to oranges.

 

[Thelonious]

Nice thoughts!
I think I am alone, but believe that our receivers have some grit and potential. If we could get a tight end option that could even get 2-3 catches a game it would do wonders for all of them.

You are alone, as you should be..

 

[Kontradiction]

They have 2 wins less in the win column and have even less offensive production. Comparing on the basis of "they still have a shot at the division" is like comparing apples to oranges.

Have you seen that division lately?

 

[Thelonious]

11 games, 4 td passes.

7 interceptions.

Multiple blown late-game opportunities.

Last game QR: 23.6.

The praise for Cam hereabouts is stone-cold delusion. Not kidding: sheer, barking, inexplicable horse---t.

As for "tanking," there's a contradiction in the OP: Playing Cam IS tanking. It's the only rational justification for playing him in fact.