How the Patriots got where they are: College draft edition

[Deus Irae]

Draft round of the recent SB winning QBs

6th
3rd
6th
1st
6th
3rd
1st
1st
1st
2nd

So 6 of the last 10 SBs have been won by QBs taken outside of the first round.

 

[1960Pats]

Tanking works fine, if you make the right picks.

I'm in the camp that believes tanking games sends the wrong message to the team. The picks don't matter as much as the message.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Draft round of the recent SB winning QBs

6th
3rd
6th
1st
6th
3rd
1st
1st
1st
2nd

So 6 of the last 10 SBs have been won by QBs taken outside of the first round.

Makes sense including the biggest outlier in pro sports . Also the Eagles wouldn't be in position to compete for a SB without Wentz who had an MVP-type year. And was also drafted Rd1.

 

[Deus Irae]

What you said ...
"The issue is bad teams without QBs drafting RBs in the first round"

Yes. That should be obvious. If you can't figure it out, you've got no business talking football.

I gave you multiple examples of good teams/QBs drafting RB's Rd1 and none made a difference if we're being honest.

That's not true. It's not even close to true. Your argument on this isn't even at a child's level. Here, let me play. I'll take the guy who's probably the best left tackle of this century, Walter Jones.

Played from 1997-2008. Go look at his team's records before, during and after, and his playoff success. I'd put it all in the post, but the maintenance time seems to have 86'd it.

It's never a smart move drafting RB's Rd1. History shows you can find them later in the draft and UDFA.

Running game matters but running backs don't.

I've already shown why that claim is nonsense.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm in the camp that believes tanking games sends the wrong message to the team. The picks don't matter as much as the message.

But the picks do matter as much as the message. The picks just have to be worth it.

I'm not a big fan of tanking, in general, because it's not a sure thing. But there are times when it would be worth it.

 

[Deus Irae]

Makes sense including the biggest outlier in pro sports . Also the Eagles wouldn't be in position to compete for a SB without Wentz who had an MVP-type year. And was also drafted Rd1.

I cited to 10 years, which is a common thing. Is Wilson just a great outlier? Is Brees just another one of those great outliers? And Wentz wasn't the QB, Foles was. Was Foles a first round pick?

 

[PittPatriot]

The elephant in this room is the growing war between Brady fans vs Belichick fans for attribution of the success of the past 20 years. Brady fans tend to talk down Belichick to talk up Brady.

And vice versa.

I don't think it's a BB vs. TB12 thing. We are Patriots fans. Most of us were fans before TB12 (or BB) and will be afterwards. We want what best for the TEAM.

 

[Deus Irae]

Again nothing of substance at all. Imagine arguing RB's matter in 2020. NFL teams and this draft expert are telling you you're wrong. Its ok to be wrong Deus.

You're not a draft expert. You're some random guy on a message board. And only a fool would pass on a player he thought would be a great running back because they were picking in the bottom of round 1 and it would be "wrong" to take a RB before pick 33.

But, since you cited to "NFL teams", I'm sure you know more than, say, the Patriots, who've drafted 2 RBs in the first round during Brady's tenure.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

You're not a draft expert. You're some random guy on a message board. And only a fool would pass on a player he thought would be a great running back because they were picking in the bottom of round 1 and it would be "wrong" to take a RB before pick 33.

But, since you cited to "NFL teams", I'm sure you know more than, say, the Patriots, who've drafted 2 RBs in the first round during Brady's tenure.

Well someone smarter than you is doing actual work to look at which draft pundits, experts etc are legit or not. Without looking into it and doing any research you're just "blah, blah, blah" like you normally do. So how actually would you know?

This all started with RB's drafted round one and you saying this ...
"The issue is bad teams without QBs drafting RBs in the first round"

It doesn't matter if you're a good/bad team.You can find that production later. Ask the 49ers, Titans, Chiefs, Seahawks, Packers. You brought up NEP. How did that work out for us drafting RBs in the first when we've won with LGB, A Smith, BJGE and made others look very good at times (Ridley, Gray).

I also gave you multiple examples of good/great teams that drafted RB's early and it didn't move the needle a bit (Sony, Gordon, Matthews, Ingram) all could have been easily replaced (Chubb, Kamara etc) from players taken later.

Arguing RBs RD1 isn't a smart move in 2020 boomer.

 

[FCB02062]

Special Team performance got Joe Judge a HC job. At least I'm pretty sure it wasn't his coaching of the WR's that got him to the Giants.

And those "spectacular" special teams did what in the playoffs?

 

[Kasmir]

I don't think it's a BB vs. TB12 thing. We are Patriots fans. Most of us were fans before TB12 (or BB) and will be afterwards. We want what best for the TEAM.

Disagree. There are a number of folks here who've declared themselves as Brady fans, saying they'll stop following the team after he retires or they'll switch allegiance to any team he goes to. Not everyone feels that way of course, but many do.

And it's a legitimate debate about who is more responsible for the team's success over the last 20 years, BB or TB12. And in general the folks who say BB sucks as a GM are generally the same ones who attribute the success of the team to Brady.

 

[fnordcircle]

I'm sure you know more than, say, the Patriots, who've drafted 2 RBs in the first round during Brady's tenure.

That you, of all people, would post this in a thread you started to **** on the Patriots' drafting...

 

[Kasmir]

And those "spectacular" special teams did what in the playoffs?

Where did I say the special teams were "spectacular"? The Punting unit was excellent. The coaching was good enough to earn a promotion for Joe Judge.

Does absolutely everything about the Patriots have to be awful for you to feel good?

 

[Ring 6]

Running backs can be found in later rounds. OL can be found in later rounds. S can be found in later rounds. Any position can be found in later rounds.
Like every other position the most likely way to find a dominant game changing player at rb is drafting them early.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Never, ever.

So you answered my post when I asked you about Gurley or Barkley with the 32nd pick, citing Brady and Manning as outliers. Isn’t it fair to say “a first round running back is generally a very bad investment for a multitude of reasons; however, the scenario can exist if the RB is exceptional enough and drops far enough in the first round” ?

Theoretically a kicker who can accurately make a 75-yard field goal could be a first round pick.

I just think having axioms like that is not a good approach to many things in life.

 

[203Pat]

Since Bacon cited to Kamara, let's take a closer look at his draft year (2017)

RBs drafted in 2017:

Fournette
McCaffrey
Cook
Mixon
Kamara
Hunt
(D'Onta) Foreman
Conner


That's a hell of a RB draft. But it's an outlier. Any simple scanning of the drafts in recent years shows that. It also shows that quality RBs aren't just falling off of trees. Start by comparing 2017 to 2018 and 2016, and you see the picture setting up quickly.

DraftHistory.com

Look at a few of the recent drafts and you will see mid to late round RB's who perform well when the starter goes down.

2018
Chase Edmonds
Boston Scott
Bo Scarborough
Justin Jackson

2017
Marlon Mack
Jamaal Williams
Chris Carson

RB is the most plug and play position and it needs to be with how often RBs get injured.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

So you answered my post when I asked you about Gurley or Barkley with the 32nd pick, citing Brady and Manning as outliers. Isn’t it fair to say “a first round running back is generally a very bad investment for a multitude of reasons; however, the scenario can exist if the RB is exceptional enough and drops far enough in the first round” ?

Theoretically a kicker who can accurately make a 75-yard field goal could be a first round pick.

I just think having axioms like that is not a good approach to many things in life.

In all seriousness if a Caff, Barkley fell into our laps I'd seriously think about it but at the same time things would have to line up.
Is Lamar Jackson on the board as well? How is are RB Corp? I wouldn't auto take a big name to disrupt a good thing we have going on the team.

I'm not dancing these are things I'd have to weigh.

Would you want to be paying Gurleys contact right now? Zeke? Even Barkleys on that team?

You take a guy that high you're already paying big money and invested for the future or else it looks kinda dumb taking a guy top 5-10 and letting him walk. Those picks are supposed to cornerstones. Not one and done.

I look at RB as the cherry on top. Not the sundae. Of you have a good OL RB falls into place. Almost automatically when you have a QB/OL.

In terms of value, importance it's down the scale for me. QB, OL/DL, CB, S, WR, LB, RB

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

In all seriousness if a Caff, Barkley fell into our laps I'd seriously think about it but at the same time things would have to line up.
Is Lamar Jackson on the board as well? How is are RB Corp? I wouldn't auto take a big name to disrupt a good thing we have going on the team.

I'm not dancing these are things I'd have to weigh.

Would you want to be paying Gurleys contact right now? Zeke? Even Barkleys on that team?

You take a guy that high you're already paying big money and invested for the future or else it looks kinda dumb taking a guy top 5-10 and letting him walk. Those picks are supposed to cornerstones. Not one and done.

I look at RB as the cherry on top. Not the sundae. Of you have a good OL RB falls into place. Almost automatically when you have a QB/OL.

In terms of value, importance it's down the scale for me. QB, OL/DL, CB, S, WR, LB, RB

See, I agree with basically everything you’re saying. In general, very bad idea to draft a RB very high. But most GMs do realize this as well, so that is why you very rarely see top 5 running backs and way fewer first round running backs nowadays. I just think this is not a written in stone rule...if the RB is good enough and sinks that much, it can be a good value. But I agree it is pretty rare that a RB exceeds his draft value when compared to a replacement level player.

 

[TB_Helmet]

See, I agree with basically everything you’re saying. In general, very bad idea to draft a RB very high. But most GMs do realize this as well, so that is why you very rarely see top 5 running backs and way fewer first round running backs nowadays. I just think this is not a written in stone rule...if the RB is good enough and sinks that much, it can be a good value. But I agree it is pretty rare that a RB exceeds his draft value when compared to a replacement level player.

I think the main thing is if you’re bad enough that you’re in the top 5, you probably have bigger needs besides RB and should draft accordingly.

Conversely if you’re drafting late in the first round, it means you have a better team and maybe a great RB would be a huge addition. While I generally am not a huge fan of this, I’m not opposed to it on principle. But you *really* have to hit that pick and that’s why drafting Sony probably wasn’t the best idea in retrospect. Few people would be complaining if we had gotten Nick Chubb’s production with that pick.

 

[Danger Zone]

And yet somehow with all this terrible, terrible drafting in a far, far, far worse position in the draft year after year after year the Patriots went to Super Bowl year after year after year and somehow stumbled accidentally into one of the best defenses of the past decade.

But you know, the Super Bowls and the defense are not relevant to the conversation of just how bad a drafter Belichick is.