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How the Patriots got where they are: College draft edition

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Deus Irae, Jan 23, 2020.

  1. 203Pat

    203Pat In the Starting Line-Up

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    I always hate the “draft is a crapshoot” narrative. If you’re throwing darts at names on a board then yes, it’s a crapshoot. If you’re targeting players based on film, measurables, fit in your scheme, and character then it shouldn’t be a crapshoot. It will never be an exact science but it’s far from a crapshoot. Tons of time and money is invested into each teams draft process for it to just boil down to luck in the early rounds. The later rounds are a different story and a lot of times scouts/coaches like something about a guy and they take a flier on him in round 6 or 7.
     
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  2. captain stone

    captain stone Pro Bowl Player

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    I was recently looking at a thread in the draft forum from last year titled who among WRs is First Round-worthy, and a not-insignificant majority had AJ Brown ahead of Everybody else including Kneal, Harry...How did so many of us, with our limited resources, get it right while Billy, with all of his resources, get it so wrong?

    Draft is a Crapshoot my ass...Not with the 32nd pick out of 256 should it be.
     
  3. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Definitely agree about it being a crapshoot. That's an outdated argument with what we know about theses prospects.
    I think it's crazy to give up on Harry though. For the most part you want a WR to ...
    1)Breakout at an early age
    2)Show consistent production
    3)Have traits that translate & an upside trait they're good at but can improve upon
    4)Pass combine test

    Harry passed all of those.

    Again too early to give up on him imo.
     
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  4. 1960Pats

    1960Pats PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    IMHO, one thing that lessens the impact of those poor drafts and lost picks is free agency. In 2001 the Pats turned things around almost overnight with quite a few FA pickups. Maybe the same thing can happen now.
     
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  5. 1960Pats

    1960Pats PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think the later picks are important because it gives a team the first shot at those players.

    As for the crapshoot narrative, what makes it difficult is the fact that your looking at players that are competing against non-pro players and it's difficult to predict how that will translate to the NYFL.

    You also have the workout warrior affect, which is a very real phenomena. Throw in the fact that players of such a young age mature at different speeds and it becomes even more difficult.

    That's why the NYFL HOF has plenty of members who weren't top picks.
     
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  6. 203Pat

    203Pat In the Starting Line-Up

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    I think the later round picks are important as well. Those are guys that have less pressure on them to be superstars right out of the gate. Granted they have to worry about making the roster but there is always the practice squad that they can learn and develop on. Cheap young talent you can get practicing with the team that if they end up as a contributor it’s basically a bonus.
    I agree with you about the crapshoot aspect of the draft but I just don’t subscribe to the notion that we missed on so many picks recently because it’s a crapshoot. I can’t just shrug my shoulders and say “oh well that just happens”. Yes every team will draft busts. Every team will draft underwhelming players. Not every team manages to draft only one Pro Bowl level starter in the last 4 drafts. Any way you split it we’ve had a rough patch of drafts the last few years and it put us in a rough spot this offseason.
     
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  7. scott99

    scott99 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I've lost most of my hair because of Patriot's drafts. I don't know why I even follow the draft anymore, but once a draft fanatic, you never change. I just know I'll most likely not be happy with the picks.

    Oddly enough, Sony Michel was my favorite player for the Pats in the 2018 draft, was beyond thrilled when they drafted him. It was the first time ever the Pats drafted my favorite player in the draft. Had a great rookie season, unfortunately, he's not who he was in college. But I doubt we win the SB in 2018 without him.

    I was somewhat happy with the 2019 picks, I wanted a WR in the 1st round, they just picked the wrong one, and didn't double dip when we needed to.

    Unfortunately, even though they didn't have much draft capital, they still found a way to screw up the 2017 draft. Derek Rivers and Antonio Garcia in the 3rd round, one pick after Garcia, the Chiefs picked Kareem Hunt. Deatrich Wise was a good pick in the 4th round, but 15 picks later, George Kittle is picked by SF.
     
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  8. 203Pat

    203Pat In the Starting Line-Up

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    I’m far from writing off anyone in the 2019 class but it’s just disappointing when a team has high round picks as healthy scratches on a roster that is far from loaded.
     
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  9. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Besides Harris I'm not sure who we could expect to crack the starting lineup?

    That's always something I look at when judging drafts. Sure they might not have played but are rosters considered? There are a lot of players getting playing time solely based on where they were picked. A lot tougher when you have HT, Gilmore, Jones, Jackson etc in front of you.
     
  10. 203Pat

    203Pat In the Starting Line-Up

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    To me that is also a factor in why I am not thrilled with the draft class. I don’t know why we spent high picks on two of our deepest positions when we had so many areas of need.
     
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  11. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Fair. I'm sure we thought of them as a combo of BPA & future needs with guys leaving?
     
  12. 203Pat

    203Pat In the Starting Line-Up

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    I assumed Harris was Sony insurance after we ended up with Patterson playing RB with Hill gone so I wasn’t surprised. I just don’t really like spending an early pick on an insurance guy at a position where there are almost always serviceable players available in free agency.

    As for Williams I didn’t really get the pick then and I don’t really get it now. At the time Jon Jones was in his last year but Williams isn’t a slot guy to my knowledge. I guess maybe they thought he would replace J McCourty if he doesn’t re-sign but I’d assume that will be JC Jackson so it seems like either way Williams was destined to be a deep depth guy.
    If we weren’t completely barren at TE, didn’t need some speed at receiver, and didn’t need some big DT’s along with some LB’s to replace Van Noy and Collins if they bail then I’d say take guys like Williams and Harris.
     
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  13. IllegalContact

    IllegalContact PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    it's the only question that matters
     
  14. IllegalContact

    IllegalContact PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Patriot SB winning success based more on free agency/vets than draft

    if you go year by year, generally, the difference between winning it all came down to the acquired veterans more than the rookies of that year.
     
  15. scott99

    scott99 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I think it's well documented that I hated the Williams pick. My only thought is, maybe Belichick saw Williams as a safety when he drafted him. He's got good size and length to cover TEs, not good speed at all, but TE like speed. Maybe it was a future pick when McCourty's and Chung's ages are factored in. Otherwise, it was a horrible pick, but that is the only scenario I could think of. He's certainly not fast enough to be a starting lockdown CB.
     
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  16. scott99

    scott99 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    There have been key guys who have been decent to key factors in the SB years. Malcolm Mitchel and Sony Michel for instance (especially Michel) in recent years. Then I think of Seymour, Light and Wilfork playing major roles as rookies in SB winning seasons. Dan Koppen & Eugene Wilson are 2 others I can think of.
     
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  17. tasmlab

    tasmlab Starting QB, won 20 SBs, number is retired PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Don't know how this fits in, but here's the players on the 2019 roster who were either drafted or UFDA'd by Belichick:

    Brady
    Stidham
    Bolden
    Harris
    Michel
    White
    Edelman
    Harry
    Meyers
    Slater
    Izzo
    Watson
    Cannon
    Ferentz
    Karras
    Mason
    Thuney
    Wynn
    Butler
    Coward
    Winovich
    Wise
    Bentley
    Collins
    Hightower
    Roberts
    Chung
    Ebner
    Harmon
    Jackson
    Jones
    McCourty
    Williams
    Baily
    Cardona
    Andres
    Cajuste
    Davis
    Develin
    Froholdt
    Gostowski
    Johnson
    King
    Olszewski
    Rivers


    The list would probably be as long if you did 2016, 2017 or 2018, when they went to the super bowl.

    I know BB drafts look terrible, but I still have to defer to him on building a successful team. The 2019 12-4 squad was really just two players and some health away from being competitive to the end.
     
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  18. captain stone

    captain stone Pro Bowl Player

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    The guy Bill should've drafted instead of Harris: Dawson Knox.

    A lot less tough when you have Watson, LaCost & Izzo ahead of you...
     
  19. captain stone

    captain stone Pro Bowl Player

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    And sometimes the difference between losing it all came down to the sub-replacement-level JAG wannabes (Eric Alexander, Pierre Woods, Chris Harper et. al.) because the rookies & other recently drafted players sucked.
     
  20. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We won't actually know how good BB is at consistent team building until he's stuck with a lesser QB.
     
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