A first round draft pick stolen in a media witch hunt, in a relatively small sample size (20%, five years) is going to be highly impactful on the negative side.
So are injuries (Antonio Garcia, Malcolm Mitchell) that leave a team with zero, and others (Wynn) that cause major issues when combined with Plan B (Veldheer) retiring.
That being said, there certainly seems to be an alarming number of early round (1-3) misses going beyond the 2015 cutoff, even after taking injuries into consideration.
(
Number in parenthesis is the total number of draft picks the Pats had that year in the first three rounds.)
2008 (4): Terrence Wheatley, Shawn Crable, Kevin O'Connell
2009 (6): Ron Brace, Brandon Tate, Tyrone McKenzie
2010 (5): Jermaine Cunningham, Taylor Price
2011 (5): Ras-I Dowling, Ryan Mallett
2012 (4): Tavon Wilson, Jake Bequette
2013 (4): Aaron Dobson
2014 (2): Dominique Easley
2015 (3): Jordan Richards, Geneo Grissom
2016 (4): Cyrus Jones, Vincent Valentine
2017 (2): Derek Rivers, Antonio Garcia
It's too early to tell for the last two drafts, but thus far it does not look very promising. Two to four contributors depending on how full or empty your glass is, and four others that don't inspire any confidence:
2018 1st round: Isaiah Wynn, Sony Michel
2018 2nd round: Duke Dawson
2018 3rd round: no pick
2019 1st round: N'Keal Harry
2019 2nd round: Joejuan Williams
2019 3rd round: Chase Winovich, Damien Harris, Yodny Cajuste
One other thing that jumps out is how late the Patriots drafted in consecutive years, 2016 and 2017. The previous year they stood pat, choosing Malcom Brown, Jordan Richards and Geneo Grissom at the end of each round. In 2016 the Pats had zero picks from 1-59, then made Cyrus Jones their first selection. The following year the Pats did not make a pick until #83, and only two in the top 130: Rivers and Garcia.
Those bad back-to-back drafts in 2016-17 look to be the issue more than anything else. Lost first and fourth round picks to Roger, traded a first and third for Brandin Cooks, then when selections are finally made it is Cyrus Jones, etc.
Edit: another issue was mishandling the Jimmy Garoppolo trade.
Due to the timing the Pats received less than they otherwise would have got in return (a 2nd round pick).
The trade actually looks worse because instead of a single second round draft bust to lament, there are seven draftees that arrived due to that exchange that have yet to produce in a meaningful way.
That 2nd got traded down or out to the next year (JoeJuan Williams), resulting in multiple picks that are either already gone (Christian Sam, Duke Dawson) or have yet to contribute (Damien Harris, Yodny Cajuste, Jarrett Stidham, weekly healthy scratch Byron Cowart. The Pats have one more chance to salvage something from that deal, with a 2020 fourth round pick from that trade.
