La Canfora: Brady unlikely to sign extension, will test free agency

[PatsFanInVa]

I like where we are right now. There's a "we don't know what tf to jabber about" window here where dumbasses have to backlash against the near-universal proclamation of GOAThood, and go into an "Is Tom Brady overrated" spin cycle. I just saw some clips, at least by title, by looking for that old Rams SB 36 clip (searching "Tom Brady Overrated.")

The potential splitting of Brady from NE is going to make these guys' heads blow up. How can they talk about how great some other team would be if we weren't hogging all the brady, and at the same time say the brady is just a role-playing JAG?

Cracks me up. Meanwhile, the "REAL GOAT," at least up to the passing of REAL baton from Rodgers to Mahomes, just **** the bed again, obviously preferring to stay home, just him and his REAL greatness, rather than advance to the SB. AGAIN.

For all the guys hanging signs saying "Please please Tom please stay," I feel ya. I agree with Tom that his interests have probably diverged from the team's at this point, and that is sad. I wish he would stay, but what's left to work with this time? And by the same token, if the Pats try to knock it out of the park on Brady's contract to make up for discounts past, what is left to arm him with, when he most looks like he needs help?

I ain't lookin' too hard at the contracts, that's what you capologist types are for. The moment "everybody says" that you can't do X, Y, and Z all at the same time, the surest way to look like a fool is agree, without diving deep into those details. Proclaiming "can't be done" when there's a stack of clauses you haven't read strikes me as foolish.

At the same time, It seems real likely that we can't address a mess of needs at the same time as upping the Brady ante.

And on the other, other hand, if it looks horrible terrible unsoveable and so on and so on, for some reason one party or the other probably perceives that as a win for their side.

So fuggit. Stick around if ya want, if not, thanks for the memories. "Wish us luck, the same to you."

 

[supafly]

I’m skeptical TB wants to come back.

I think he would come back for a reasonable salary and contract, but I think the writing is on the wall and has been since the negotiations that occurred last summer. Again, just my opinion and of course I hope that I’m wrong. Seeing Tom leave will be devastating.

 

[primetime]

I think it is accurate to say that the Patriots are in a cap position where re-signing Brady will severely undermine their ability to assemble a team around Brady that solves the deficiencies that plagued this year's team. However, I think the defense will remain very good and will give them a chance in every game. That's with or without Brady, and I guess the calculus comes down to your belief in Brady's decline and an unknown about who could replace him.

 

[borg]

This Brady Exit Anxiety Disorder that has been consuming Patriots Nation has to be debilitating to Brady and his family and will only get worse if he resigns.

From a psychological standpoint, I would think it would be easier on him and his family to move on to a new city and a new team as a mercenary with a defined time table.

Why endure the constant public speculation and anxiety in a region the Bradys will likely detach themselves from permanently when he finally exits the Patriots?

New life in a new city with a less emotionally attached fan base would be liberating. Securing a new contract that allows him to define his ultimate exit from the game would eliminate a large portion of fan anxiety created by the “unknown.”

 

[TomPatriot]

I think he would come back for a reasonable salary and contract, but I think the writing is on the wall and has been since the negotiations that occurred last summer. Again, just my opinion and of course I hope that I’m wrong. Seeing Tom leave will be devastating.

There were newspaper reports last August about an extension and it didn't materialize. So what happened? Did BB back out? Did TB back out? Both?

I don't think he wants to come back. I think he's tired of BB and Foxboro; he's been there 20 years. He still wants to play, but also wants something new. Maybe he flourishes somewhere else. Maybe he continues a slow decline. Who knows?

I think BB is great but playing for him for 20 years is one helluva long grind.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

There were newspaper reports last August about an extension and it didn't materialize. So what happened? Did BB back out? Did TB back out? Both?

I don't think he wants to come back. I think he's tired of BB and Foxboro; he's been there 20 years. He still wants to play, but also wants something new. Maybe he flourishes somewhere else. Maybe he continues a slow decline. Who knows?

I think BB is great but playing for him for 20 years is one helluva long grind.

I’m going to speculate the extension both sides (claimed to have) wanted had a lot less to do with total dollar amount and a lot more to do with the details. We know the Patriots are among the most cautious teams when it comes to the language and guarantees in those deals.

So it wouldn’t surprise me if they treated him like most players they sign instead of heavily guaranteed deals, with huge signing bonuses, they’ve done in the past with him. Wouldn’t surprise me if they also went with incentives that both he and Gronk were recently burned on. I also wonder if Brady had other things he wanted, such as more time off to spend with family, etc., things that Belichick was also unwilling to give give to Gronk (been my speculation for some time.). And finally there’s the Alex Guerrero piece probably met head on during these negotiations.

I’m sure many fans will be emotional and angry if he leaves, and I’ll be one of them, but I’ve also felt really uneasy about this ever since he told the press about the extension not happening and not feeling valued. When you are Tom Brady and motivated by doubters, and there are no doubters left, maybe you can find them in Belichick and Kraft. This fire to prove himself is what we’ve loved about him over the years. I’ll just always hate the way he went out in NE. Thanks Sanu.

 

[Tottie]

I’m going to speculate the extension both sides (claimed to have) wanted had a lot less to do with total dollar amount and a lot more to do with the details. We know the Patriots are among the most cautious teams when it comes to the language and guarantees in those deals.

So it wouldn’t surprise me if they treated him like most players they sign instead of heavily guaranteed deals, with huge signing bonuses, they’ve done in the past with him. Wouldn’t surprise me if they also went with incentives that both he and Gronk were recently burned on. I also wonder if Brady had other things he wanted, such as more time off to spend with family, etc., things that Belichick was also unwilling to give give to Gronk (been my speculation for some time.). And finally there’s the Alex Guerrero piece probably met head on during these negotiations.

I’m sure many fans will be emotional and angry if he leaves, and I’ll be one of them, but I’ve also felt really uneasy about this ever since he told the press about the extension not happening and not feeling valued. When you are Tom Brady and motivated by doubters, and there are no doubters left, maybe you can find them in Belichick and Kraft. This fire to prove himself is what we’ve loved about him over the years. I’ll just always hate the way he went out in NE. Thanks Sanu.

The 2018 incentives they added to his contract instead of giving him a proper deal were pretty petty. MVP season in 2017 and he had a base salary of I think 15 mil? They added a bunch of incentives that I believe he had to be like top 5 in all major stats to hit and he would get a total of like 23 mil? Top 5 stats needed to be paid like a top 20 QB or something like that. Don't quote me on the exact details I'm just going from memory. The point is, that deal is like a slap in the face. Things must of escalated from there into last year's negotiations. I do understand the way BB does deals but everything has exceptions. They could of gotten him for pretty cheap if they just issued some guarantees and assumed some risk. Trust works both ways.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

The 2018 incentives they added to his contract instead of giving him a proper deal were pretty petty. MVP season in 2017 and he had a base salary of I think 15 mil? They added a bunch of incentives that I believe he had to be like top 5 in all major stats to hit and he would get a total of like 23 mil? Top 5 stats needed to be paid like a top 20 QB or something like that. Don't quote me on the exact details I'm just going from memory. The point is, that deal is like a slap in the face. Things must of escalated from there into last year's negotiations. I do understand the way BB does deals but everything has exceptions. They could of gotten him for pretty cheap if they just issued some guarantees and assumed some risk. Trust works both ways.

I trust Belichick except with drafting receivers and any players in the second round.

 

[Tunescribe]

For starters, a one deal would have to be similar to last year's one year deal.

I would think that $30M of new money would be a minimum. If you are worried about the 2020 cap, consider that following:

WITHOUT BRADY
$13.5M Brady dead money
plus the cap for a bridge quarterback (or backup veteran) say $6.5M
for a total of 2020 cap hit of $20M

WITH BRADY
$6.75M
plus the 2020 cap on a new Brady contract.

To match the 2020 cap hit without Brady, the new cap hit is restricted to $13.25M

$4.25M salary
$27M bonus over 3 years (pushing forward $18M)
for a total of $20M = ($6.75 + $4.25M + $9M)

$20m this year, $13.25m the next. Unless Brady truly doesn't care about money in any way, it's hard to fathom him signing that deal. (Personally, I think Brady cares about money less than some have reported, but I also think money provides him a convenient excuse to leave for other reasons which I'm increasingly becoming convinced outweigh his interest in staying.)

A "bridge QB" probably depends though. Assume Stidham is the starter and maybe Keenum will come for that much (though really he got paid $7.5m last year so unlikely). If Newton gets cut or traded, he might be $20-22m as a starter type (consider that at $16m, Andy Dalton was the cheapest incumbent veteran starter type in football last season). Same for all the other guys like Tannehill or Bridgewater, low $20s is your starting point. It all depends on how sturdy you want that bridge to be.

Unless the Patriots decide to just roll the dice with Stidham and a middling veteran backup a la Keenum in which case the cost is around $20m, it's hard to envision the Patriots paying the QB position less than $30m next year between a veteran starter (thinking Tannehill, Bridgewater, Newton, Rivers level) and Brady's dead money or otherwise if the money goes to Brady himself.

I'm open to all possibilities including keeping Brady at the right amount. But most scenarios I've seen suggest the same $$$ will be spent at QB whether Brady is retained or another veteran is brought in, which might not be the wisest course.

By way of overview, I consider this a likely situation: the team has serious needs at multiple positions that will be compounded by losing key free agents. The Patriots will enter 2020 in rebuild mode, unprecedented for BB's tenure since 2000-2001, with a relatively weak roster compared to recent years. They also face their most brutal schedule ever. This might not be a playoff-ready team to which a player like Brady is well suited -- with or without him, a Super Bowl run looks highly doubtful. Even winning the AFCE cannot be assumed.

So, it's reasonable to question the wisdom of re-upping Brady for a costly swan-song year where his presence won't be pivotal in terms of playoff success. Keeping him while rebuilding just delays the inevitable need to identify and develop his successor. The same goes for signing a middlin'-priced "bridge" quarterback vet when you're better off long term just biting the bullet and developing youngsters under fire -- that goes for all skill positions on offense including QB.

Of course, this seems a radical approach. The very best scenario would be Brady accepting an EXTREMELY team-friendly contract for a final season prior to retirement (perhaps meaning a cut from last year's salary) to manage the offense and mentor his successor. The question is, will his pride and apparent need to be "appreciated" allow it? All his moves this offseason suggest otherwise.

To summarize: (1) Brady is not the Brady of old or even of two years ago. His level of performance slipped in 2019 not completely from a subpar supporting cast. (2) For Brady to be effective with the Patriots in 2020, offensive personnel around him must be upgraded significantly, requiring the addition of high-priced free agents. (3) For the team to afford that help, other areas of need would be shortchanged if Brady is retained at or above last season's salary: By applying limited resources to accommodating him on offense, the defensive roster will suffer from robbing Peter to pay Paul and placing more on Brady's shoulders to carry the load. Can he really turn the clock back at age 43?

Here is what I expect to occur in order of likelihood:

* The Patriots re-sign Brady to a contract similar to 2019 and the defense will suffer a setback. The team will struggle and if it makes the playoffs will be one and done. The team will enter 2021 probably without Brady still in significant rebuild mode.
* Brady signs with another team. The Patriots will enter 2020 with a balanced roster but will struggle through growing pains and if they make the playoffs will be one and done. The team will begin 2021 with a firm foundation.
* Brady retires.

 

[Simpelton]

Nobody knows for sure. Everyone is guessing.

Personally I suspect that Brady's radio silence will end 1-2 days after the Superbowl. He won't rain on the parade of teams still playing for something by putting out news that might oershadow them. But as soon as that's not an issue -- we'll know.

That said -- you have to believe that if he was committed to staying in New England, something would have gotten done by now. Everyone knows everyone else's phone number. Everyone has made comprimises in the passt. No reaon they can't do so again.

I think it's clear that we've seen the last of Brady in a Patriots' uniform. He's gotta have his Montana-in-KC years to round out his career. no shame in it for either side.

 

[Vindicate]

Because they were stupid last year, and might smarten up.

Not saying I disagree with the idea that they were dumb with how they've handled Brady, especially with what seems to be a pretty unproven QB situation behind him - but do you think it's still the not stupid thing to do to sign him given our cap restrictions heading into this year?

As it has been regurgitated 500 times over in multiple threads, Brady deserves a better cast around him. Can we afford both? I really just want to hear a situation where both are possible so I can have hope lol.

 

[Kasmir]

Maybe he continues a slow decline. Who knows?

All past history suggests it will be a fast decline, probably injury related. Brady is very close to the end. Some other team may very well pay him for a year for the box office novelty, but tying up significant money with Brady for anything but year-to-year / incentive based makes no football sense.

 

[primetime]

I'm open to all possibilities including keeping Brady at the right amount. But most scenarios I've seen suggest the same $$$ will be spent at QB whether Brady is retained or another veteran is brought in, which might not be the wisest course.

By way of overview, I consider this a likely situation: the team has serious needs at multiple positions that will be compounded by losing key free agents. The Patriots will enter 2020 in rebuild mode, unprecedented for BB's tenure since 2000-2001, with a relatively weak roster compared to recent years. They also face their most brutal schedule ever. This might not be a playoff-ready team to which a player like Brady is well suited -- with or without him, a Super Bowl run looks highly doubtful. Even winning the AFCE cannot be assumed.

So, it's reasonable to question the wisdom of re-upping Brady for a costly swan-song year where his presence won't be pivotal in terms of playoff success. Keeping him while rebuilding just delays the inevitable need to identify and develop his successor. The same goes for signing a middlin'-priced "bridge" quarterback vet when you're better off long term just biting the bullet and developing youngsters under fire -- that goes for all skill positions on offense including QB.

Of course, this seems a radical approach. The very best scenario would be Brady accepting an EXTREMELY team-friendly contract for a final season prior to retirement (perhaps meaning a cut from last year's salary) to manage the offense and mentor his successor. The question is, will his pride and apparent need to be "appreciated" allow it? All his moves this offseason suggest otherwise.

To summarize: (1) Brady is not the Brady of old or even of two years ago. His level of performance slipped in 2019 not completely from a subpar supporting cast. (2) For Brady to be effective with the Patriots in 2020, offensive personnel around him must be upgraded significantly, requiring the addition of high-priced free agents. (3) For the team to afford that help, other areas of need would be shortchanged if Brady is retained at or above last season's salary: By applying limited resources to accommodating him on offense, the defensive roster will suffer from robbing Peter to pay Paul and placing more on Brady's shoulders to carry the load. Can he really turn the clock back at age 43?

Here is what I expect to occur in order of likelihood:

* The Patriots re-sign Brady to a contract similar to 2019 and the defense will suffer a setback. The team will struggle and if it makes the playoffs will be one and done. The team will enter 2021 probably without Brady still in significant rebuild mode.
* Brady signs with another team. The Patriots will enter 2020 with a balanced roster but will struggle through growing pains and if they make the playoffs will be one and done. The team will begin 2021 with a firm foundation.
* Brady retires.

Yeah, I think this post is basically spot on, but I'm increasingly leaning towards option 2 being the more likely outcome. (I think option 3 is probably very highly unlikely.) I think people probably underrate the talent on this team even if some major free agents like Van Noy and Thuney depart, though. Part of it would depend on who the quarterback is. If it's Stidham, is he ready? If it's a veteran like Cam Newton or Ryan Tannehill, how do they answer the questions that they pose (chronic lower body issues for Newton; continued ascent or regression to the mean for Tannehill)?

I do think we have to move forward from this year in a position we haven't been in nearly 2 decades, which is we can't assume the Patriots will win playoff games. But I also think they'll remain competitive, though a lot of that depends on draft, free agency, and how the chosen Brady successor turns out. If Brady leaves, that is. I'm 50/50 on that, I do think he's declined but remains a top-10 QB. But I do think he's standing at the edge of that cliff, and it's only a matter of time, so it's a risk if you try to bring him back for anything more than a year... and I'm not convinced he wants that.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Nobody knows for sure. Everyone is guessing.

Personally I suspect that Brady's radio silence will end 1-2 days after the Superbowl. He won't rain on the parade of teams still playing for something by putting out news that might oershadow them. But as soon as that's not an issue -- we'll know.

That said -- you have to believe that if he was committed to staying in New England, something would have gotten done by now. Everyone knows everyone else's phone number. Everyone has made comprimises in the passt. No reaon they can't do so again.

I think it's clear that we've seen the last of Brady in a Patriots' uniform. He's gotta have his Montana-in-KC years to round out his career. no shame in it for either side.

I am a headhunter and often relocate people for new jobs. I would never be certain, or really close to certain, that someone is going to leave their long-time home and employer, even for a much better offer. Brady is human like everyone else, and a strong emotional, second-guessing, almost paralyzing fear will emerge if he does indeed decide that rationally it is the best decision to play somewhere else. I still think he is likely to leave NE, but this is a factor to be considered. As much as people try to say it isn’t an emotional decision, it often is, and those emotions don’t kick until the reality hits.

 

[Tunescribe]

Yeah, I think this post is basically spot on, but I'm increasingly leaning towards option 2 being the more likely outcome. (I think option 3 is probably very highly unlikely.) I think people probably underrate the talent on this team even if some major free agents like Van Noy and Thuney depart, though. Part of it would depend on who the quarterback is. If it's Stidham, is he ready? If it's a veteran like Cam Newton or Ryan Tannehill, how do they answer the questions that they pose (chronic lower body issues for Newton; continued ascent or regression to the mean for Tannehill)?

I do think we have to move forward from this year in a position we haven't been in nearly 2 decades, which is we can't assume the Patriots will win playoff games. But I also think they'll remain competitive, though a lot of that depends on draft, free agency, and how the chosen Brady successor turns out. If Brady leaves, that is. I'm 50/50 on that, I do think he's declined but remains a top-10 QB. But I do think he's standing at the edge of that cliff, and it's only a matter of time, so it's a risk if you try to bring him back for anything more than a year... and I'm not convinced he wants that.

Fans need to buckle up for a rocky road ahead next season with or without Brady. That's how I see it.

 

[primetime]

Fans need to buckle up for a rocky road ahead next season with or without Brady. That's how I see it.

Rocky by our spoiled standards, still relatively smooth by the standards of the rest of the league.

 

[50-yard-line]

My gut tells me that the Pats don't give him a great offer and he won't be back (maybe it's just my fear, but that's what I expect right now).

BB goes with Stidham next year.

The most logical landing place for Brady, to me, is with the Chargers. They need to put fans in seats desperately, and in a huge market area (with lots of Pats fans, i might add). If I were running the Chargers, I'd go after him hard - I'd trade/overpay for JE (another California kid who's out here in South Bay every year) if that's what he wanted. Heck, I'd trade for Gronk's rights and go after McDaniels if that's what he wanted.

The Chargers are in a desperate situation and they need to do something drastic.

 

[TomPatriot]

I trust Belichick except with drafting receivers and any players in the second round.

Ok, but he drafted Jimmy in the second round. Also, Jordan Richards. And Cyrus Jones. And Aaron Dobson. Ok, nevermind.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

My gut tells me that the Pats don't give him a great offer and he won't be back (maybe it's just my fear, but that's what I expect right now).

BB goes with Stidham next year.

The most logical landing place for Brady, to me, is with the Chargers. They need to put fans in seats desperately, and in a huge market area (with lots of Pats fans, i might add). If I were running the Chargers, I'd go after him hard - I'd trade/overpay for JE (another California kid who's out here in South Bay every year) if that's what he wanted. Heck, I'd trade for Gronk's rights and go after McDaniels if that's what he wanted.

The Chargers are in a desperate situation and they need to do something drastic.

If Tom goes to LA and takes Edelman and Gronk with him, the Chargers are winning the SB...

 

[primetime]

I will say, if Brady comes back, they better draft Thaddeus Moss so Brady can be the first QB in NFL history to throw a touchdown to both a father and son.