SI article- Which teams will win the next 5 Super Bowls?

[everlong]

This is such a ridiculous exercise but it's the off season and I'm bored so I'll play.

The Chiefs are among the most likely to regress next year in my mind. Teams have a year of tape on Mahomes who granted is dynamic with his legs but QBs like that also end up on the shelf more often. They also have to rebuild that defense and two of their better pieces in Houston and Berry will be 30 and 31 and both have had a hard time staying healthy. Kelce also turns 30 and Watkins can't stay on the field and they signed him to that big contract.

I also think the Eagles will regress further. They're at a negative salary cap space of over 6M.

I surprised nobody took Green Bay and I'm shocked 4 people took the Steelers who are as dysfunctional as it gets and their QB is a major reason why. Worthlessberger is one of those QBs where the miles are going to add up all at once. As much as I think Rodgers is all about Rodgers if they put the right team around him he's still capable. I do think he might be gone before Brady.

I'm surprised nobody took SF as a dark horse. They have high draft picks and JG returning along with a load of cap space.

 

[Brick27]

“Hey Chiefs have Mahomes so they’re going to win multiple super bowls over 5 years”.

Not sure how that sort of insight suggests they handle aging/banged up Eric Berry, Dee Ford’s free agency this year, Tyreek Hill and Chris Jones next year. There’s also guys like Anthony Hitchens and Sammy Watkins (19.2M cap hit in 2019, 21M for 2020) with inflated salaries and/or unfavorable dead caps that are hard to get out from. Then you’ve got the team rushing to give Mahomes a monster deal sooner than later.

Mahomes seems like the real deal, and it’s hard to argue he won’t continue to excel. Still though, teams will have tape, and it won’t be an unknown when teams face him in another go around. He put up an all-time great year with 5,000 passsing yards, and 50 TDs, yet they couldn’t put the pieces together to finish the job. Even if he were to “regress” and have seasons more in the range of say 4,000-4,200 yards and 35-38 TDs...would there be enough in place to overcome this drop in production, the defensive woes, roster turnover, etc to be a 1st seed again? If it’s expected that Mahomes needs to put up 50k, and 50 TDs just to be in the mix, that’s not a good thing from the team perspective.

 

[Joey007]

He’s way below average.

Too early

 

[BobDigital]

It's impossible to predict beyond a few years. The only thing I can predict with any reliability are the teams that won't win in the next 2 years. Mostly they are teams that are locked in with bad QBs who can't get it done.

For instance I would argue the Ravens are in a lot worse of a position than a number of weaker teams even though they are coming off a 10-6 year and had arguably the best defense last year. Sadly they are all in on the Lamar Jackson train and I don't see that taking them anywhere.

I would honestly pick a team like the Browns or Dolphins to be more likely to win it all than them in the next few years just because their QB situation is less shaky.

 

[Steve102]

Conor Orr picks the Pats to win x3. That's crazy talk! Can you even imagine? The league offices would implode if by 2024 the Patriots have 9 Super Bowl Banners hung in Gillette.

Nine.

The very thought of it makes me grin ear to ear.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

"The Saints and Patriots will get their Super Bowl victories with their current coach-quarterback combinations while they're still in this championship window, and the Chiefs may get one or both of theirs after Mahomes signs his contract extension. "

Wait, what?

1) how many years are left on the cheap deal, and
2) Why would he perform better after you pay him, rather than before?

Maybe the NFL works different from other contracts, but counting on performance after you pay the man seems like, in general, the wrong end in most cases.

It seems that this person reflects the mindsets of actual GMs. They can’t wait to make this guy the highest paid because naturally that means they can finally win the SB.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Conor Orr picks the Pats to win x3. That's crazy talk! Can you even imagine? The league offices would implode if by 2024 the Patriots have 9 Super Bowl Banners hung in Gillette.

Nine.

The very thought of it makes me grin ear to ear.

Nine England.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

It seems that this person reflects the mindsets of actual GMs. They can’t wait to make this guy the highest paid because naturally that means they can finally win the SB.

So. Much. Facepalm.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I’ll go with these five as most likely to win in next five years.

Patriots
Falcons
Chargers
49ers
Texans

 

[Shed83]

I don't get everyone picking the Chiefs to win multiple SBs in the next 5 years.

Since 2000 only 2 teams have won multiple SBs in a 5 year span: Patriots and Steelers.

With only the Ravens additionally having won multiple SBs at all since 2000.

This year was probably the Chiefs best chance at a SB and they still blew it.

Not sure if it is deliberate or you have been lucky enough to be able to erase a certain couple of games from your mind but there is one massive elephant you are forgetting

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Reading this article reminded me of a similar one done in the spring of 2001 by a very respected football analyst (who's name escapes me). In this article the author named the 5 teams LEAST likely to win a Superbowl in the next 5 years. #1 on that list was your NE Patriots. .

Here's the thing I think we all miss. We all miss just how hard it is just to win a single NFL game, let alone a Superbowl. You just have to remember all the really tough games we've had with the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins over the years. Sure we won a great majority of them, but almost all of them were close tough games. Or just look at the fact that all 5 of the Pats losses this year came against teams who didn't even get to the playoffs.

So just multiply that by 100, and that is how hard it is to win the 3 or 4 games necessary to win a Superbowl against the BEST teams of that year. So MANY things can happen to derail a game and many more to derail a season. So did I mention that it's HARD to win a Superbowl.

All a team and a fan base can hope for is that they get to the playoffs and hope to be playing at their best AND get a few breaks along the way for that 3 or 4 game run. NOTHING is guaranteed going in. Perhaps once in a generation there is a team that is THAT good to run roughshod through the playoffs like the 85 Bears. Just look at what happened to the Saints in the last 2 seasons. You just can't plan or protect from those 2 endings. That sh!t just happens and you have to be on the right side of them. Back to the "hard" thing again.

All I know is that over the next 5 years, it is very likely that that for the majority of them, the Pats WILL have that opportunity to compete for that title. I know that they will be well coached, prepared and competitive in every one of those games. So if, in a given year, everything comes together (team chemistry, talent, HEALTH, and our fair share of the good bounces and calls), we will host another Lombardi. But what we sometimes forget is that all TWELVE playoff teams get that same shot.

When you think about it this way and try and forget the entitlement comes with being Pats fans (these days), what the Pats have done over the course of almost TWO decades becomes even more remarkable win or lose.

Do you have the link to that article from 2001? I’ve tried to reference/search for it dozens of times, but so I can no longer find it online.

 

[law241]

I predict that because of the danger of CTE all the football players in the world will retire in the off-season. The human players will be replaced Dolphins and all NFL fields with be replaced by giant aquariums. The SuperBowl will be renamed the DolphinBowl. The Dolphins will win the next five titles. But not the Miami Dolphins, the Dolphin team from Cleveland. The Miami team will still have double digits losses in each of the five seasons.
Hey you can't prove me wrong. And if my prediction doesn't come to pass, I will just keep predicting the same thing ad infinitum.

 

[Redstorm]

“Hey Chiefs have Mahomes so they’re going to win multiple super bowls over 5 years”.

Not sure how that sort of insight suggests they handle aging/banged up Eric Berry, Dee Ford’s free agency this year, Tyreek Hill and Chris Jones next year. There’s also guys like Anthony Hitchens and Sammy Watkins (19.2M cap hit in 2019, 21M for 2020) with inflated salaries and/or unfavorable dead caps that are hard to get out from. Then you’ve got the team rushing to give Mahomes a monster deal sooner than later.

Mahomes seems like the real deal, and it’s hard to argue he won’t continue to excel. Still though, teams will have tape, and it won’t be an unknown when teams face him in another go around. He put up an all-time great year with 5,000 passsing yards, and 50 TDs, yet they couldn’t put the pieces together to finish the job. Even if he were to “regress” and have seasons more in the range of say 4,000-4,200 yards and 35-38 TDs...would there be enough in place to overcome this drop in production, the defensive woes, roster turnover, etc to be a 1st seed again? If it’s expected that Mahomes needs to put up 50k, and 50 TDs just to be in the mix, that’s not a good thing from the team perspective.

Correct. Without Mahomes MVP performance, we would’ve looked alot more like the Falcons.

Normally, Good Offense+Bad Defense=fringe playoff team. KC got the #1 seed because they had a Great Offense

 

[everlong]

Belichick is a much better coordinator than head coach, which the Patriots will find out. - Pete Prisco June 2001

“On a day when they could have had impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson or the second-best tackle in the draft in Kenyatta Walker, they took Georgia defensive tackle Richard Seymour, who had 1 sacks last season in the pass-happy SEC and is too tall to play tackle at 6-6 and too slow to play defensive end. This genius move was followed by trading out of a spot where they could have gotten the last decent receiver in Robert Ferguson and settled for tackle Matt Light, who will not help any time soon.” - Ron Borges

Ya the media is so clairvoyant. Don't even get me going on quotes after the 2014 KC game.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Belichick is a much better coordinator than head coach, which the Patriots will find out. - Pete Prisco June 2001

“On a day when they could have had impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson or the second-best tackle in the draft in Kenyatta Walker, they took Georgia defensive tackle Richard Seymour, who had 1 sacks last season in the pass-happy SEC and is too tall to play tackle at 6-6 and too slow to play defensive end. This genius move was followed by trading out of a spot where they could have gotten the last decent receiver in Robert Ferguson and settled for tackle Matt Light, who will not help any time soon.” - Ron Borges

Ya the media is so clairvoyant. Don't even get me going on quotes after the 2014 KC game.

I've seen this, the Borges one & a few other about Sey. Long before I started grading prospects but nothing wrong w holding people accountable. Its only sports after all, not that serious.

I've long been a Sey-HOF truther. He'll never be confused w Watt but Sey really played & effected the game in the same way JJ did. He'll get in soon hopefully.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I’ll go with these five as most likely to win in next five years.

Patriots
Falcons
Chargers
49ers
Texans

-Patriots
-Saints (I see them bouncing back after 2 heartbreaking playoff losses - maybe a 2 year window)
-Chiefs (Mahomes will come down to earth a little but still dangerous)
-Eagles (Solid nucleus)
-Indianapolis (They are turning that ship around under Ballard)
-LA Rams (still a damn good team)

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I've long been a Sey-HOF truther. He'll never be confused w Watt but Sey really played & effected the game in the same way JJ did. He'll get in soon hopefully.

I think the HOF committee decided not to pick 2 players from the same team in one year, so they went with Law this year over Seymour.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Do you have the link to that article from 2001? I’ve tried to reference/search for it dozens of times, but so I can no longer find it online.

It was by Joel Buchsbaum and was headlined "Patriots Least Likely". I think it was in Pro Football Weekly and that it has long since disappeared.

Buchsbaum was a reclusive football obsessive who died young (and someone for whom, apparently, BB had a lot of time).

 

[farn]

-Patriots
-Saints (I see them bouncing back after 2 heartbreaking playoff losses - maybe a 2 year window)
-Chiefs (Mahomes will come down to earth a little but still dangerous)
-Eagles (Solid nucleus)
-Indianapolis (They are turning that ship around under Ballard)
-LA Rams (still a damn good team)

I like none of those teams to win the SB (Patriots excluded). Instead of looking at the treat of the week, I will predict which team should be tough. Despite obvious problems, I’d put Pitt and Seattle ahead of the teams listed above. The listed teams all have young QBs that have yet to win it all and may - in some cases - regress. I’ll take Wilson & Ben ahead of the lot.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I like none of those teams to win the SB (Patriots excluded). Instead of looking at the treat of the week, I will predict which team should be tough. Despite obvious problems, I’d put Pitt and Seattle ahead of the teams listed above. The listed teams all have young QBs that have yet to win it all and may - in some cases - regress. I’ll take Wilson & Ben ahead of the lot.

Wilson I can get on board with, but Seattle is going to have to win a tough division. But you would put a 39 year old Roethlisberger over Mahomes, Wentz, Luck, and Brees? Did you forget they were coached by Tomlin?