Is this down year in the NFL truly temporary?

[BobDigital]

Everyone has been calling this a window year that is wide open with the usual suspects down. But is it unual or the new norm for the time being? Will the next few years look like this too? This is something to consider. Here is why.

#1 The QB position has changed. QBs are better athletes and play makers, worse pocket passers. Mahomes, Lamar are not going to play to 40... and even if they come close they won't be nearly as good in their 30s. There will be much less stability at the position than in the time of Manning, Brady, Brees and Rodgers.

#2 Mahomes was singular as a 2 way QB. He allowed the NFL to believe in the illusion of stability through his continued domination and super bowl appearances. A fair amount of this had to due with other factors but he was also a singular athlete in the new game. His contemporaries as duel threat QBs... Lamar and Allen have no super bowl appearances and even limited NFCCG appearances. Yes Hurts has 2 appearances and one championship but we are seeing more and more how carried he was by his stacked teams.

#3 Pure Pocket Passers are worse. Who are the best pocket passers in the NFL right now? Stafford, Goff, Burrow and maybe Herbert (though he runs a fair bit too). These guys are not nearly as good in the pocket and can't carry a team the way Brees and Manning did consistently year after year for deep runs.

Overall the main point is this. Mahomes and KC have lulled fans a bit into thinking the NFL was more stable than it is right now? I think there is some truth to that. Even the other teams who have been consistently good Bills, Rams, Eagles, Ravens, ect... have achieved very little in terms of results and this include multiple deep playoff runs.

 

[jmt57]

That's a good question Bob.

To me the sports media narrative that '2025 is a down year' is relative to your first point. Sports teams are marketed by their star/most well known players, and in the NFL that means the QB. So when teams that were expected to do well, the ones that had the highest wins total over/under - in the AFC that was KC and Baltimore - fall back to the middle of the pack, their star power drops. That creates a void - i.e., a 'down' year. It doesn't matter that other players such as Drake Maye have already filled the void, because he is somebody the nation as a whole is still just starting to get to know. UNC is not a perennial collegiate powerhouse, and the Pats had a pair of 4-13 seasons - so neither team was on television very often outside their home tv markets.

There is also the fact that a couple of the best teams are defense-oriented, which also makes that 'star power' more difficult to market. Denver and Houston are good examples. Then there is Jacksonville, and NFL fans have been told for years that the Jaguars always disappoint, and Trevor Lawrence is a bust that never lives up to his draft status. Same goes for Sam Darnold in the NFC. Those labels don't get shed overnight, or in this case, in one regular season. Meanwhile Dallas gety hyped every year, and when they once again fail, it is looked at as a 'down year'.

 

[Jim Plunkett]

 

[maust]

 

[stinkypete]

Down years like 2025 have happened every five years or so. I think of 2012 and 2008 as recent examples where the whole league seemed less good across the board.

Most of the time, the old guard re-emerges. Every now and then, there’s a wholesale changing of the guard.

I don’t think the AFC changes a ton over the rest of this decade. I see the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills are near locks to contend until their QBs bodies break down, provided Minter and Brady run stable organizations. Hopefully we join them at the top of the power structure. Time will tell.

The NFC may be experiencing a major shift. The Niners, Lions and Eagles look more ripe for steady decline.