Most Overrated Player in NFL?

[fightingirish595]

Rodgers talent isnt overrated at all. But that road record against .500 teams and above to me is all I need to know.

 

[TheRainMaker]

No doubt, Vernon making the pro bowl is beyond pathetic. But, I wouldn’t say he is overrated because nobody ever talks about him.

Phillip Rivers is my pick. 2 playoff wins in the last 10 years. Only made the playoffs 3 times in the last 10 years. That’s ridiculously bad.

Last thing I want to see is Rivers celebrating another playoff victory on that Pats expense after all the sh!t I talk.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Rodgers talent isnt overrated at all. But that road record against .500 teams and above to me is all I need to know.

Also, his record going into the 4th quarter when losing against winning teams. Someone came up with 0-32, but I think he has like 1-2 wins. Regardless, that’s horrible.

 

[NormZauchin]

That’s who I said as well. He is the most uncorrelated quarterback, maybe in the history of the game, between his passer rating his team’s offensive success. Points scored is such an obvious indicator of someone’s value at the QB position. The Seahawks have finished with these rankings (out of 32):

2012: 9th
2013: 8th
2014: 10th
2015: 4th
2016: 18th
2017: 11th
2018: 6th

To put things in perspective, the Patriots finished 4th this season, during a huge “down year” on multiple levels. Brady, Rodgers, and Brees frequently lead the league’s top scoring offenses. Wilson does not and isn’t capable. Yet he had the 2nd biggest QB rating of all-time, so everyone loves to make excuses for him and overrate his actual value.

Wilson has been much more the "system QB" than Brady ever was. In the Super Bowl years, the Seattle defense carried the team and the offense relied on a strong running games anchored by Marshawn Lynch. Wilson just needed to make the occasional throw to keep the defenses honest, which he did.

 

[Zarozzor]

That’s who I said as well. He is the most uncorrelated quarterback, maybe in the history of the game, between his passer rating his team’s offensive success. Points scored is such an obvious indicator of someone’s value at the QB position. The Seahawks have finished with these rankings (out of 32):

2012: 9th
2013: 8th
2014: 10th
2015: 4th
2016: 18th
2017: 11th
2018: 6th

To put things in perspective, the Patriots finished 4th this season, during a huge “down year” on multiple levels. Brady, Rodgers, and Brees frequently lead the league’s top scoring offenses. Wilson does not and isn’t capable. Yet he had the 2nd biggest QB rating of all-time, so everyone loves to make excuses for him and overrate his actual value.

Wouldn't Points Per Drive for a QB's offense, and the defense supporting them be better to look at than raw points?

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

As much as I like the guy... considering his rediculous contract, lack of durability, and small sample size of starts, Jimmy G is overrated.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Phillip Rivers .... yeah ... I said it .....

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Wouldn't Points Per Drive for a QB's offense, and the defense supporting them be better to look at than raw points?

If it shows different results, then yes. If it’s essentially just the same general ranges with a little variation, but ultimately still gets the point across that Wilson’s offenses are never elite, then no. I suspect the latter (possessions per game generally even out over the course of a season and don’t change the offensive production results much) but feel free to post supporting evidence to the contrary. I’m open minded.

 

[Brewskies]

And as I said, he's become underrated just this season.

I made a mistake by saying underrated this season only, I meant overrated this season only, 2018. He has had a tough season on the road this season 2018.

 

[Zarozzor]

If it shows different results, then yes. If it’s essentially just the same general ranges with a little variation, but ultimately still gets the point across that Wilson’s offenses are never elite, then no. I suspect the latter (possessions per game generally even out over the course of a season and don’t change the offensive production results much) but feel free to post supporting evidence to the contrary. I’m open minded.

Sadly, points per drive only goes back to 1993. But here are Wilson, Brady, Manning, Brees, and Rodgers


Wilson

Points
2012: 9th
2013: 8th
2014: 10th
2015: 4th
2016: 18th
2017: 11th
2018: 6th
9.4 Average

Points Per Drive
2012: 7th
2013: 9th
2014: 9th
2015: 5th
2016: 15th
2017: 20th
2018: 7th
10.2 Average

Brady
Points
2001: 6th
2002: 10th
2003: 12th
2004: 4th
2005: 10th
2006: 7th
2007: 1st
2009: 6th
2010: 1st
2011: 3rd
2012: 1st
2013: 3rd
2014: 4th
2015: 3rd
2016: 3rd
2017: 2nd
2018: 4th
4.7 Average

Points Per Drive
2001: 7th
2002: 16th
2003: 16th
2004: 5th
2005: 7th
2006: 5th
2007: 1st
2009: 5th
2010: 1st
2011: 3rd
2012: 1st
2013: 6th
2014: 3rd
2015: 3rd
2016: 5th
2017: 1st
2018: 8th
5.4 Average

Manning
Points
1998: 19th
1999: 3rd
2000: 4th
2001: 2nd
2002: 17th
2003: 2nd
2004: 1st
2005: 2nd
2006: 2nd
2007: 3rd
2008: 13th
2009: 7th
2010: 4th
2012: 2nd
2013: 1st
2014: 2nd
2015: 19th
6.0 Average

Points Per Drive
1998: 12th
1999: 2nd
2000: 4th
2001: 4th
2002: 15th
2003: 1st
2004: 1st
2005: 1st
2006: 1st
2007: 2nd
2008: 4th
2009: 4th
2010: 3rd
2012: 3rd
2013: 1st
2014: 4th
2015: 24th
5.0 Average

Brees
Points
2002: 20th
2003: 16th
2004: 3rd
2005: 5th
2006: 5th
2007: 13th
2008: 1st
2009: 1st
2010: 11th
2011: 2nd
2012: 3rd
2013: 10th
2014: 9th
2015: 8th
2016: 2nd
2017: 4th
2018: 3rd
6.8 Average

Points Per Drive
2002: 21st
2003: 14th
2004: 3rd
2005: 4th
2006: 4th
2007: 11th
2008: 1st
2009: 2nd
2010: 7th
2011: 2nd
2012: 4th
2013: 3rd
2014: 5th
2015: 6th
2016: 2nd
2017: 2nd
2018: 2nd
5.4 Average

Rodgers
Points
2008: 5th
2009: 3rd
2010: 10th
2011: 1st
2012: 5th
2013: 8th
2014: 1st
2015: 15th
2016: 4th
2018: 15th
6.7 Average

Points Per Drive
2008: 12th
2009: 6th
2010: 8th
2011: 1st
2012: 8th
2013: 7th
2014: 1st
2015: 15th
2016: 3rd
2018: 16th
7.7 Average


Points
1. Brady: 4.7
2. Manning: 6.0
3. Rodgers: 6.7
4. Brees: 6.8
5. Wilson: 9.4

Points Per Drive
1. Manning: 5.0
2. Brady: 5.4
3. Brees: 5.4
4. Rodgers: 7.7
5. Wilson: 10.2

 

[nabwong]

Not sure if I have an overrated player but I definitely know the player that has the highest salary to worst performance ratio: Matthew Stafford. If there’s a way for him to blow it, he will.

 

[Jangles]

Erin Rodgers and I don't think it's really close

He's the next Peyton Manning. In the sense that he gets more passes for bad play than any QB of all time.

When he's rolling, sure, one of the best ever. But he just doesn't have it. He reminds me of a Jay Cutler with talent

 

[supafly]

All I can say is, I hope not. An AAV of $17.5m is probably $2.5m AAV higher than I think the Pats would go.

Whew. Let’s hope they go to 15m. Vernon’s 17.5m may end up being closer to 3-4m more than NE is willing to go. It’s a difficult situation to predict, but I’m locked into the 13m range as our offer. We’ll know soon enough. Fingers crossed he stays.

 

[supafly]

Not sure if I have an overrated player but I definitely know the player that has the highest salary to worst performance ratio: Matthew Stafford. If there’s a way for him to blow it, he will.

Yeah, Stafford’s name should definitely be in the mix.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Sadly, points per drive only goes back to 1993. But here are Wilson, Brady, Manning, Brees, and Rodgers


Wilson

Points
2012: 9th
2013: 8th
2014: 10th
2015: 4th
2016: 18th
2017: 11th
2018: 6th
9.4 Average

Points Per Drive
2012: 7th
2013: 9th
2014: 9th
2015: 5th
2016: 15th
2017: 20th
2018: 7th
10.2 Average

Brady
Points
2001: 6th
2002: 10th
2003: 12th
2004: 4th
2005: 10th
2006: 7th
2007: 1st
2009: 6th
2010: 1st
2011: 3rd
2012: 1st
2013: 3rd
2014: 4th
2015: 3rd
2016: 3rd
2017: 2nd
2018: 4th
4.7 Average

Points Per Drive
2001: 7th
2002: 16th
2003: 16th
2004: 5th
2005: 7th
2006: 5th
2007: 1st
2009: 5th
2010: 1st
2011: 3rd
2012: 1st
2013: 6th
2014: 3rd
2015: 3rd
2016: 5th
2017: 1st
2018: 8th
5.4 Average

Manning
Points
1998: 19th
1999: 3rd
2000: 4th
2001: 2nd
2002: 17th
2003: 2nd
2004: 1st
2005: 2nd
2006: 2nd
2007: 3rd
2008: 13th
2009: 7th
2010: 4th
2012: 2nd
2013: 1st
2014: 2nd
2015: 19th
6.0 Average

Points Per Drive
1998: 12th
1999: 2nd
2000: 4th
2001: 4th
2002: 15th
2003: 1st
2004: 1st
2005: 1st
2006: 1st
2007: 2nd
2008: 4th
2009: 4th
2010: 3rd
2012: 3rd
2013: 1st
2014: 4th
2015: 24th
5.0 Average

Brees
Points
2002: 20th
2003: 16th
2004: 3rd
2005: 5th
2006: 5th
2007: 13th
2008: 1st
2009: 1st
2010: 11th
2011: 2nd
2012: 3rd
2013: 10th
2014: 9th
2015: 8th
2016: 2nd
2017: 4th
2018: 3rd
6.8 Average

Points Per Drive
2002: 21st
2003: 14th
2004: 3rd
2005: 4th
2006: 4th
2007: 11th
2008: 1st
2009: 2nd
2010: 7th
2011: 2nd
2012: 4th
2013: 3rd
2014: 5th
2015: 6th
2016: 2nd
2017: 2nd
2018: 2nd
5.4 Average

Rodgers
Points
2008: 5th
2009: 3rd
2010: 10th
2011: 1st
2012: 5th
2013: 8th
2014: 1st
2015: 15th
2016: 4th
2018: 15th
6.7 Average

Points Per Drive
2008: 12th
2009: 6th
2010: 8th
2011: 1st
2012: 8th
2013: 7th
2014: 1st
2015: 15th
2016: 3rd
2018: 16th
7.7 Average


Points
1. Brady: 4.7
2. Manning: 6.0
3. Rodgers: 6.7
4. Brees: 6.8
5. Wilson: 9.4

Points Per Drive
1. Manning: 5.0
2. Brady: 5.4
3. Brees: 5.4
4. Rodgers: 7.7
5. Wilson: 10.2

Wow, thanks for putting this together. It’s excellent work.

As I suspected, not a huge variance between points per drive and points scored. A variation of 1 (of 32) ranking position at most.

There are some variables here (example, Brady’s win pct likely gives him a high number of throwaway, clock-killing drives and very few garbage opps, and also interceptions/turnovers are a factor but probably not an enormous one. Again Brady has both the points and lack of INTs unlike Manning and Brees), but I think this is pretty consistent with what people observe. Brady (likely first for much better INT %), Manning, and Brees are the best quarterbacks, Rodgers, for all his talent, is a not quite in their class and certainly not the GOAT from a production standpoint, and Wilson is not even close.

This thread has referenced Wilson and Rodgers, the fluorescent passer rating boys, as overrated, and your data provides evidence.

Thanks again.

 

[Ring 6]

Is Vernon overpaid at $17.5m/season? Sure. Is he overhyped by the NY mediots? Of course.

However, in the past three seasons with the Giants (39 games), Vernon has posted pretty much the same stats as Trey Flowers has over the past three seasons with the Pats (46 games).

IMHO, the term "overrated" is overused.

The problem here is that you think you judge defensive players on stats.

 

[Ring 6]

I will get killed for this, however, if this is about this past season only, I would add Tom Brady's name to the mix.

Go Pats

You should get killed for this because it is a stupid post

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I will get killed for this, however, if this is about this past season only, I would add Tom Brady's name to the mix.

Go Pats

Name the quarterbacks this year that could put up a top-4 scoring offense with Gronk Lite, 12 games of Edelman (age 32), Quicksand Hogan, a learn on the fly Gordon for about 8 games, and James White. Sony Michel has been good but hardly in the elite RB range.

Take a look at the other top scoring teams and the disgusting level array of weapons they have (Chiefs, Rams, Saints, for example.). Patriots are, at best, an average team ranking around 16th for QB supporting cast, yet they were #4 in the NFL. Not much different from the Brady factor in 2013.

To call Brady overrated is insane.

 

[maineman209]

Whew. Let’s hope they go to 15m. Vernon’s 17.5m may end up being closer to 3-4m more than NE is willing to go. It’s a difficult situation to predict, but I’m locked into the 13m range as our offer. We’ll know soon enough. Fingers crossed he stays.

Rough guess based on my own spreadsheet is that the Pats can probably swing $15m AAV if the 2019 cap hit is low enough.

 

[maineman209]

Le'Veon Bell is a close second to Aaron Rodgers. That offensive line nearly made James Conner a 1000 yard rusher

Underrated RBs going into this season:
Adrian Peterson
Frank Gore