From the beginning of the season until now,
Patriots
Steelers
Texans (if Watson comes back alright)
Chiefs
Chargers (as long as they don't get too many injuries)
have been pretty safe bets. The question has pretty much always been about that last spot. That's where the fluidity lies. If the Jags hadn't crapped out, we'd be looking at the Texans and Chargers as teams looking to hold off wild card competition, but the Jags demise has given the Texans a clean road to the division title, and the Chargers an easier path to wild card one (granted that division isn't yet out of reach). The battles for the top 5 spots aren't over, but the fat lady is backstage warming up her vocal chords. So, barring some levels of collapse, we're now mostly looking at the battle for #6:
Titans
Bengals
Ravens
Dolphins
Colts
Broncos
The only surprise, and it's one that we can forgive ourselves for, is that Luck has bounced back well enough to have the Colts in contention.
Jets/Bills/Browns/Jags/Raiders are all out of it, absent one hell of a run.