OT-ish: The gambling thread

[Soliel]

Well, lost some money but it’s manageable. I’ve never liked road games in places above 60 degrees. Ergo, I didn’t bet much.

 

[BobDigital]

Last week had me going 3-3. One game I missed by only a few points. The others were massive upsets that were very one sided wins by the underdogs. I don't think anyone saw those coming. Hopefully myself and the Pats right this ship soon. I didn't post anything earlier cause I knew I didn't want to touch the Thursday game this time.

4-2 - week 7
2-3 - week 8
3-1 - week 9
3-3 - week 10

Bengals @ Ravens O/U 43.5 - This line hasn't moved all week and that surprises me a little. The Raven offense has hardly been prolific but it isn't complete trash. The Cinci offense has been good and their D is terrible which will allow the Ravens to score. It seems this O/U assumes the Ravens at home will completely shut down Cinci. I don't see it. Give me the over.

Vikings @ Bears O/U - 44 - This is down from the open of 45.5 and i kind of liked it then. The Bears have found ways to score points due to big plays from both this O and D. It is hard to imagine any game these days with a total U/O that tics in under 44 points without 2 incompetent offenses unless the game gets weird. Give me the over.

Carolina - 4.5 @ Lions - Carolina has been a different team on the road, particularly on offense. True as that may be I like them this week. After a long time to think about how thing went for them on Thursday I think they come out ready to play and beat up on a bad Lions team. They will bide their time till they get another chance to show the NFL they are for real this year. Give me Carolina - 4.5

Chargers @ Broncos - O/U - 46 - A lot of Broncos games have gone under this year. In part cause their D is good and in part because that is the game they kind of bait their opponent into playing. Most NFL teams are happy to not take risk and win. The Broncos tend to give those kinds of games. Add in a Chargers offense that has been struggling and this is a rare under I like in an offensive year. Give me the under.

Steelers -5.5 @ Jags - The Jags had their best game in 5 weeks last week. And they still lost. This team can't seem to put it together. The whole thing has fallen apart and the surging Steelers will be looking for their own revenge game. They want to not only win but do all they can to blow the Jags out. I don't see this game going any other way than the Steelers winning by 7 or more. Give me the Steelers -5.5.

 

[luuked]

Carolina - 4.5 @ Lions - Carolina has been a different team on the road, particularly on offense. True as that may be I like them this week. After a long time to think about how thing went for them on Thursday I think they come out ready to play and beat up on a bad Lions team. They will bide their time till they get another chance to show the NFL they are for real this year. Give me Carolina - 4.5

Really like the Panthers here but am considering buy myself up to -2.5.

 

[jmt57]

Week 11 Crystal Ball Says:

Top Picks:
Falcons (-3) vs Cowboys
Ravens (-6) vs Bengals
Titans (+2½) at Colts
Chiefs (+3½) at Rams
Vikings (+3) at Bears

The Rest:
Panthers (-4) at Lions
Eagles at Saints (-7)
Texans at Washington (+3)
Bucs (+3) at Giants
Broncos (+7½) at Chargers
Raiders at Cardinals (-4½)
Steelers (-4) at Jaguars

5-Game, 5-Point Teaser:
Titans (+7½) at Colts
Chiefs (+8½) at Rams
Vikings (+8) at Bears
Saints (-2) vs Eagles
Ravens (-1) vs Bengals

 

[fnordcircle]

**** this line while on the road in a stadium that has sometimes not been great for us against a team with nothing to lose.

$300 to win $250 @ -9 (bought a half a point)

Goddamn I hate 2+ score lines against division rivals regardless of the teams involved. Probably going to do a few $25 teasers in the next little bit if I start seeing some lines that look fun to tease. I might go against my rules and do a 3 wager parlay for a few bucks too.

 

[Soliel]

**** this line while on the road in a stadium that has sometimes not been great for us against a team with nothing to lose.

$300 to win $250 @ -9 (bought a half a point)

Goddamn I hate 2+ score lines against division rivals regardless of the teams involved. Probably going to do a few $25 teasers in the next little bit if I start seeing some lines that look fun to tease. I might go against my rules and do a 3 wager parlay for a few bucks too.

This is one I’m probably not going to be able to talk anyone in to betting with me at work. I will have to bet some other way (casinos).

I was thinking about sitting this one out but today I’m getting the sense that the pats win by twenty points or so. The New York article about gronk sealed the deal. Pride thing now

I’m down 400 on the year, got to win some back lol

 

[luuked]

**** this line while on the road in a stadium that has sometimes not been great for us against a team with nothing to lose.

$300 to win $250 @ -9 (bought a half a point)

Goddamn I hate 2+ score lines against division rivals regardless of the teams involved. Probably going to do a few $25 teasers in the next little bit if I start seeing some lines that look fun to tease. I might go against my rules and do a 3 wager parlay for a few bucks too.

Given how slow we start at times I am kinda thinking about letting the game run a quarter and do a live bet on it hoping the line falls to 5-6 within that time. If we score early and the line explodes then so be it and I will just not participate.

Ended up doing the same on the Panthers game last week and after the first 2 drives stayed out of betting on this game completely. It felt off from the beginning.

 

[everlong]

I like the Dolphins +10 points @ the Colts. The Fins are coming off their bye week and since when do a 5-5 Colts team deserve a double digit favorite status? The Fins are 5-5 as well and have a higher SOS and SOV. Admittedly the Colts are trending in the right direction while Miami is struggling. Tannahill should be back.

I also like the Broncos +3 at home vs the Steelers. The Steelers are playing back to back road games and Mile High is every bit the horror show for the Steelers it is for the Patriots. The Steelers are 5-12-1 there all time.

 

[patriot1136]

I apologize if this has been covered before, what online sites are you guys using these days? Looking for recommendations

 

[fnordcircle]

I’m down 400 on the year, got to win some back lol

Oh man, I'm sorry. I've lucked out in that the 3 games we've lost were my lowest bets ($300)

I was actually able to put $1k of the casino's money in my daughter's hand in addition to everything else for her wedding.

I'm losing the stomach for betting $1k though. Brady's performance in the pocket was very disheartening and I want him to convince me he's not losing confidence or something, as insane as that sounds.

 

[jmt57]

Week 12 odds as of Thursday morning.
Lines will vary slightly from one venue to another, and will also change somewhat between now and Sunday.

Thursday:
Bears (-3) at Lions, [43½]
Redskins at Cowboys (-7), [41]
Falcons at Saints (-12½0, [60½]

Sunday Early:
Jaguars (-3) at Bills, [37]
Raiders at Ravens (-10½), [43]
Niners at Buccaneers (-3½), [54]
Giants at Eagles (-5½), [46½]
Browns at Bengals (-3), [47½]
Patriots (-9½) at Jets, [46]
Seahawks at Panthers (-3), [47½]

Late Games:
Dolphins at Colts (-7½), [51]
Cardinals at Chargers (-12½), [44½]
Steelers (-3) at Broncos, [46½]

Night Games:
Packers at Vikings (-3½), [47½]
Titans at Texans (-6½), [41]

 

[jmt57]

Early Advanced Look-Ahead Lines for next week:

 

[BobDigital]

I have to tip my hat to the vegas odd makers last week. They absolutely killed it. 4 of my 5 bets were won or lost by a hair. A master class in line placing.

4-2 - week 7
2-3 - week 8
3-1 - week 9
3-3 - week 10
3-2 - Week 11

Bears - 3 @ Lions - The Lions managed to get a big upset narrow win last week. I don't see that happening two weeks in a row. They screwed me last week but I refuse to believe this average team can do that to me 2 weeks in a row. Give me the Bears -3 Gobble gobble! EDIT. Last second change. Not taking this game without the Bears starting QB. Too bad as it was juicy

Redskins @ Dallas - 7 - I tend to hate these kind of bets as football is a rather unpredictable sport. The 7 just seems to generous though for a couple teams that seem to be fairly evenly matched in what should be a low scoring game. I realize Alex Smith is out but I don't see that as a big loss. In a game that would have been basically a pick em on a neutral field is the downgrade from Smith to Colt McCoy worth 4 points? I don't see it. Give me the Redskins +7.

Falcons @ Saints U/O 60.5 - I got scared off last week cause the point spread went over 60 and something about that made me hesitate in an obvious shoot out kind of game. I regret that now. I will not be hesitant again. These are 2 good offense and 2 so-so defenses in a dome on a short week. I expect a lot of points. Give me the over.

Jags @ Bills U/O 37.5 - I hate to go under spreads like these. I REALLY hate it. Low scoring games can go into OT or bad offenses can give the D easy points. I haven't done well this year going under on low spreads. However the NFL this year is starting to slow down on the scoring and I think that trend mostly continues. The Bills put 41 up a few weeks ago. They won't explode like that again this season and certainly not in a back to back games (they had a bye week). This is me betting against too many defensive points. Give me the under.

Steelers -3 @ Broncos - Not much to say here. Home field matters of course but I just think Pitt is more than 3 points better than Denver no matter where they play. Give me the Steelers -3

GB @ Vikings -3.5 - I find it odd how this game is considered a pick em on neutral ground. I just look at the Vikings and besides QB I don't see a spot where they are worse. In some spots they are much better. Add in home field and I am happy to take the Vikings -3.5

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Legal sports betting opens in RI at 3pm Monday. Have to be physically at the casino to place bets though.

Sorta pathetic they couldn’t get things functional before this week’s games.

 

[Soliel]

Oh man, I'm sorry. I've lucked out in that the 3 games we've lost were my lowest bets ($300)

I was actually able to put $1k of the casino's money in my daughter's hand in addition to everything else for her wedding.

I'm losing the stomach for betting $1k though. Brady's performance in the pocket was very disheartening and I want him to convince me he's not losing confidence or something, as insane as that sounds.

I hear ya there. I’ve not lost confidence at all but the fact is that this team is not like the last two years. Straight up bets don’t bother me but giving points up is harder.

 

[jmt57]

After a laughably pathetic week 11, I am back to bang my head against the wall once again.

Week 12 Picks:
Jaguars at Bills (+3)
Niners at Buccaneers (-1½)
Dolphins (+9) at Colts
Titans (+6) at Texans
Steelers at Broncos under 47½

The Rest:
Raiders (+13) at Ravens
Giants (+5) at Eagles
Browns (+3) at Bengals
Patriots at Jets (+13)
Seahawks (+3) at Panthers
Cardinals (+14) at Chargers
Steelers (-3) at Broncos
Packers at Vikings (-3½)

Two-game, 7-point teaser:
Browns (+10)
Seahawks (+10)

 

[fnordcircle]

Legal sports betting opens in RI at 3pm Monday. Have to be physically at the casino to place bets though.

Sorta pathetic they couldn’t get things functional before this week’s games.

In NV you can use an app but you have to disable WiFi for location reasons. Hopefully they'll do something like that.

 

[everlong]

I like the Dolphins +10 points @ the Colts. The Fins are coming off their bye week and since when do a 5-5 Colts team deserve a double digit favorite status? The Fins are 5-5 as well and have a higher SOS and SOV. Admittedly the Colts are trending in the right direction while Miami is struggling. Tannahill should be back.

I also like the Broncos +3 at home vs the Steelers. The Steelers are playing back to back road games and Mile High is every bit the horror show for the Steelers it is for the Patriots. The Steelers are 5-12-1 there all time.

Toot, toot the Fins spread went down but I still covered that and the Broncos won outright. That really was a house of horrors game for the Steelers. They dominated everything except the turnover battle.

 

[everlong]

I really don't love any of the games this week vs the spread.

NO/Dallas I like the over at 52.5.

Two team tease NE Even (from -6) and Cleveland +10.5 (from +4.5). I think the Pats in December at home vs a dome team, they'll win but I'm not sure it will be by more than six. Cleveland minus one game vs Pittsburgh has played everybody tight plus Houston will be coming off a Monday night game in the Division vs a physical Tennessee team. I see that being a one score game.

I may make it a three team tease and adding in Buffalo at +11.5 (from +5). Miami's largest margin of victory is 8 points.

 

[fnordcircle]

-6 @ home is an actually reasonable spread given how we've been playing and how Minny has looked, overall. I'm not saying I'm excited by it it's just nice to see a home spread that seems just about right.