An Interesting Article [Are we seeing Brady's inevitable decline?]

[Deus Irae]

I love these articles and threads. No other quarterback is held to these insane standards....

And we are talking about a QB who threw for 505 yards and lost the Superbowl only 9 months ago....

Like Tommy said, "I'll retire when I suck..."

Dude, I don't know what to tell you. Tom Brady has thrown a few passes that were off the mark over the course of a few games.



That's NEVER happened before. It's over.

 

[maineman209]

"Down" or "not down" isn't all that meaningful. I wish there were more breakdowns of things.

For example, someone upstream mentioned that in games 5-8 Brady's completion percentage was 70%, up from the low 60s in the first four games. But, for example, is that increase in completion percentage caused by proportionally more easy throws to the backs or is it downfield stuff getting better?

Or say we look at just completion percentage (or, really, incompletion percentage). For the passes that are incomplete, how/why were they incomplete? Pretend that in both year N and year N+1 the incompletion percentage was 32% but in year N incompletions were primarily caused by miscommunications but in year N+1 they were primarily caused by off-target throws. That knowledge would be a useful piece of data, and one that is totally obscured by saying "his completion percentage was 68% both years, so obviously no drop-off".

While White is certainly seeing more tgts/game than last season, total tgts/game to RBs last season (including Burkhead and Lewis) were pretty similar.

But that's just an FYI. Your point stands.

 

[glm]

If such a stat site exists where one can compare QB accuracy when targeting WR, RB, & TE groupings...please post. This year, it seems Brady's completion rate is all about the RB.

2018:
-WR = 134 Targets. 96 Rec. 71.6% completion rate. Targeted 47.3% out of all positions on passes.
-TE = 48 Targets. 33 Rec. 68.8% completion rate. Targeted 17% out of all positions on passes.
-RB/FB = 101 Targets. 70 Rec. 69.3% completion rate. Targeted 35.7% out of all positions.

2017:
-WR = 277 Targets. 174 Rec. 62.8% completion rate. Targeted 47.8% out of all positions on passes.
-TE = 144 Targets. 89 Rec. 61.8% completion rate. Targeted 24.9% out of all positions on passes.
-RB/FB = 158 Targets. 126 Rec. 79.7% completion rate. Targeted 27.3% out of all positions.

2016:
-WR = 234 Targets. 155 Rec. 66.2% completion rate. Targeted 53.9% out of all positions on passes.
-TE = 97 Targets. 69 Rec. 71.1% completion rate. Targeted 22.4% out of all positions on passes.
-RB/FB = 103 Targets. 71 Rec. 68.9% completion rate. Targeted 23.7% out of all positions on passes.


He’s targeting running backs way more this year and the tight end targets took a nose dive.

 

[glm]

While White is certainly seeing more tgts/game than last season, total tgts/game to RBs last season (including Burkhead and Lewis) were pretty similar.

But that's just an FYI. Your point stands.

No there’s actually been a big jump in Targets to running backs this year.

 

[n6249c]

Are you saying after an 18 year career it might be over?

So after 18 years he is closer to the end than the beginning. OMG the sky is falling. It's all over. No future left.

 

[Deus Irae]

I find this article

Trent Brown fills in big hole on Patriots offensive line


much more interesting.

 

[primetime]

The article in the OP is a well done analysis. It certainly feels like Brady's been worse this year than previous years. Hopefully those numbers are jusr statistical flukes and by the end of the year, everything is hunky dory. It can't last forever, though.

 

[maineman209]

No there’s actually been a big jump in Targets to running backs this year.

About 11 tgts/game so far this season. About 9 tgts/game in 2017.

This season, there were only 3 WRs active for wks 1 thru 3, and Hollister was out for wk-1 and wk-3. Gordon's first game active was week-4. Edelman game off suspension in wk-5.

It would be kind surprising if there wasn't some increase in RB tgts under the personnel circumstances. Two per game doesn't seem like a "big jump" to me. The number of tgts to RBs also depends on what the other team is focused on defending for that game.

 

[glm]

About 11 tgts/game so far this season. About 9 tgts/game in 2017.

This season, there were only 3 WRs active for wks 1 thru 3, and Hollister was out for wk-1 and wk-3. Gordon's first game active was week-4. Edelman game off suspension in wk-5.

It would be kind surprising if there wasn't some increase in RB tgts under the personnel circumstances. Two per game doesn't seem like a "big jump" to me. The number of tgts to RBs also depends on what the other team is focused on defending for that game.

They have 101 Targets in 8 games this season which comes out to 12.63 Targets per game. Our running backs are on pace for 202 Targets this season.

Last year they had 158 Targets in 16 games which comes out to 9.88 Targets per game.

The Patriot’s RBs this year are on pace to have almost 50 more targets than last year.

RB’s this year have been targeted on 35.7% of passing targets compared to 27.3% last year.

James White is on pace to break the record for RB with the most catches in a season.

So yeah I’d say it’s been a pretty big jump.

 

[maineman209]

So yeah I’d say it’s been a pretty big jump.

And I wouldn't, especially given the context.

 

[Coolade2]

His mental game compensates for inconsistent mechanics that diminish his velocity and accuracy. His stride forward, once a staple of his delivery mechanism, is much less pervasive. Whether it is conscious, subconscious, injury or age related, Brady is definitely flat footed during many throws. Maybe he doesn't have complete faith in his pocket protection, maybe he's hearing imaginary footsteps, maybe he's compensating for an undisclosed injury, maybe he just figures the stride is too time consuming....or all of the above.
I have been somewhat surprised in how many short passes he's under thrown.
It is also worth mentioning he purposely puts more arc into many of his throws compared to the young strong arms who haven't yet figured out the game like the GOAT.
Like an older pitcher that loses heat and must rely on veteran craftiness, Brady seems on this path.
If such a stat site exists where one can compare QB accuracy when targeting WR, RB, & TE groupings...please post. This year, it seems Brady's completion rate is all about the RB.

I posted similarly on page 1. Intelligence is the most important thing a QB must possess, and it evolves, compensates, adjusts, as we speak. Just like ours. Funny how that happens.

Second thing is QB throw is not a golf swing where you start from calm position every time. Stress and movement cause off balance. Back foot, rushed take away , even getting hit. So what is happening.? How does it actually play out ?

Eventually the stress wins out, when he can no longer compensate for the loss of speed in his arm shoulder, core . Thing is each year the off season work must increase due to age, when age tells you to slow down or "you have the answers to the test". Um wrong. Father time has the answer to that .. gotta fight it every minute of the day.

We shall see. We've been watching this guy for almost 20 years... Wow. Go Tom! (Doing sit-ups as I'm typing..)

 

[Coolade2]

No there’s actually been a big jump in Targets to running backs this year.

Yup . The best being when he reaches back and hands it off..

 

[QuantumMechanic]

In discussions/arguments about Brady, if you find yourself saying something that could have come out of the mouth of a Goober-fellating Colts fan, just rethink your argument. You don’t want to go full Colts fan.

We should mock them, not become them.

 

[Kdo5]

In discussions/arguments about Brady, if you find yourself saying something that could have come out of the mouth of a Goober-fellating Colts fan, just rethink your argument. You don’t want to go full Colts fan.

We should mock them, not become them.

What do you mean by this?

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Fair points Dues, but we need to accept that it will be impossible for Brady to remain at last years level every year until he retires

The fact is, he will be worse as time moves forward from today. Not game by game but more overall year to year. He is not Superman.

As his fans, we can not allow ourselves to get into denial. We won’t get angry or frustrated because he’s given us the greatest performance at QB in NFL history. there will be some sadness, that’s just natural.

The only player I’ve seen retire without a decline was Big Papi. But I think he was just 40

That is an estimate based on 'he's older so he must drop off' isn't it? An expectation/estimate versus a fact?
There's primarily two things Brady needs to remain at a high level:
1.the fire to make everything else a distant second in order to zealously and very time consuming-ly practice & re-practice his craft (that pure fire to want to win no matter the physical, mental, time toll). To be a top performer in the NFL, when 5 o'clock rolls around it isn't Miller Time. It's mind and body training and retraining almost 24/7/300 (65 days off ). I suspect that retirement for players -- besides injury/bodily wear that just can't heal to a sufficient degree -- is sometimes that bottom line feeling/decision of "I no longer want to put in the colossal, all time consuming, insane amount of effort another year".
2. a relatively healthy and functioning mind and body.


-Is there reason to believe Brady does not have 1? Hey, every off season it wouldn't surprise me if he decides he no longer has that require extreme fire. But it certainly seems like playing and winning still rages, no?
-Is there reason to believe his ankles-knees, his hands-elbows-shoulders, his mind isn't in good working order? IMHO being the pure pocket passer he is has been extremely helpful to not only keep him under center almost without fail, but to keep his body from accumulating the kind of wear that makes recoup time longer and ultimately too long (when the body can't recoup fast enough during the season -- definitely a big benefit of being young is the rapid recoup time -- the decision to hang it up is made for you).

Yes, Brady may not be precisely the same QB as last year, however, it's just as likely the difference is negligible instead of this proverbial cliff that some in the media can't wait to proclaim. Brady having an 'off game' is not new to 2018, 2017, 2012 or 2006.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

In discussions/arguments about Brady, if you find yourself saying something that could have come out of the mouth of a Goober-fellating Colts fan, just rethink your argument. You don’t want to go full Colts fan.

We should mock them, not become them.

Much like the tree of life, there's a tree of NFL football fans.
You have the top of the tree, Patriot fans. Then at the middle of the tree you have your Texans and your Tampa Bays. Then at the very very bottom of the tree you have your Colts. You simply can't possibly get any lower than the Colts.

Wait! I forgot the Jets. I stand corrected.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

You should feel however you feel! That’s your right.

The way I feel right now isn't about a right, it's about a cause and effect

 

[DarrylS]

Are you saying after an 18 year career it might be over?

Not at all, just wondering if missing the OTA's has effected his timing and stating the obvious that the end of his career is coming sooner rather than later....

 

[Soliel]

I think it’s more about no cooks no amendola

 

[RobertWeathers]

I think it’s more about no cooks no amendola

In other news 'Dola was dumped by Oliva Culpo as he was stepping out on her. Idiot.