An Interesting Article [Are we seeing Brady's inevitable decline?]

[bbobbo]

 

[PP2]

Are we finally seeing the start of Tom Brady’s inevitable decline?

By no means am I saying that Brady is becoming noticeably worse or poorer. It's just interesting to analyze the statistics since this article does provide a relatively comprenehsive review of his passing accuracy. Just from watching Brady's games, it just seems a bit off this year, but something I thought I'd share.

You do understand he's playing with an almost completely revamped offense?

I think it's unfair to hold him responsible when the only two familiar pieces to him are Gronk and Edelman, and even then, a less than 100% Gronk. Let's not forget Edelman hasn't played in 1 1/4 of a season and still is in the process of getting his legs back.

Hogan doesn't qualify because he isn't anywhere on the same page with Gronk/Edelman as far as reading Brady's mind, and reading the defense the same way Brady does.

 

[Ring 6]

Stupid article. Poor use of “faketistics”.
Some guy decided to judge throws and is trying to pawn that off as fact.
Brady will always have more “poor throws” than other QBs because he won’t force the ball and when he knows he has nothing he will purposely miss by a lot.

 

[Chevy]

I'm not big on stats but I will concede he looks a little more flat footed in the pocket lately, so I would agree that aspect of his game is trending down but who knows if it will continue in that direction. Arm strength and decision making are still there and hes still throwing a nice tight spiral so I'm not worried.

Look at it this way - he's the NFL Larry Bird. He's done it all, and is looking for something more to provide that spark. Left-handed through three quarters type stuff. And, like Bird, when it gets serious he has another "zone" to fall back on.

 

[borg]

I'm not big on stats but I will concede he looks a little more flat footed in the pocket lately, so I would agree that aspect of his game is trending down but who knows if it will continue in that direction. Arm strength and decision making are still there and hes still throwing a nice tight spiral so I'm not worried.

His mental game compensates for inconsistent mechanics that diminish his velocity and accuracy. His stride forward, once a staple of his delivery mechanism, is much less pervasive. Whether it is conscious, subconscious, injury or age related, Brady is definitely flat footed during many throws. Maybe he doesn't have complete faith in his pocket protection, maybe he's hearing imaginary footsteps, maybe he's compensating for an undisclosed injury, maybe he just figures the stride is too time consuming....or all of the above.
I have been somewhat surprised in how many short passes he's under thrown.
It is also worth mentioning he purposely puts more arc into many of his throws compared to the young strong arms who haven't yet figured out the game like the GOAT.
Like an older pitcher that loses heat and must rely on veteran craftiness, Brady seems on this path.
If such a stat site exists where one can compare QB accuracy when targeting WR, RB, & TE groupings...please post. This year, it seems Brady's completion rate is all about the RB.

 

[condon84]

He's got at least 1 more SB.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

First 4 games with an injured Gronk and No Edleman. I didn't have high expectations for those games and going 2-2 didn't alram me.

So now we have 4 games under our belts -
Week 5 (@Colts) - Never worried about the game. Brady had 10 yards per completion (73% completion pct), 4 tds, 2 ints

Week 6 (Chiefs) - One game that we would have marked as a potential loss, ended up winning and scoring 43 points. Only 1 passing TD and 3 rushing tds (one to Brady). Team never had to punt and no interceptions. 340 passing yards with 14 yards per completion (69% completion pct). Biggest issue Ghost kicking 5 FGs. First world problems.

Week 7 (@Bears) - Considered a good/solid defense. Scored 38 points (though only 24 by offense and needed those Special teams/defense points). 69% compeltion pct, 3 TDs, 11 yards per completion, 1 INT. Seems solid and respectable

Week 8 (@Bills) 64% completion %, 11 yards per completion, no passing TDs and only 1 TD (rush by White). (My observation) Lots of pressure by Bills that had Brady moving in the pocket and not always able to step into throws.

So it seems to me, more to be a recency bias where the last 2 games were against strong defenses and we struggled in the red zone. Passing TDs aren't high and there's been an uncharacteristic number of interceptions (for Brady).

Brady has made some nice long throws and a couple underthrown (never his forte as a passer, but always respectable and a threat to connect). He still has zip on the ball and throwing in a tight window when he can maintain his presence in the pocket.

End result, I'm not seeing a QB in steady decline at this time. Just some good defenses bringing pressure and some red zone concerns (something to keep an eye on against good defenses). Early on he had some strange throws into coverage that weren't typical, but I think that was due to a lack of comfort with his pool of receivers.

We need Edleman to stay healthy and Gordon to keep progressing. White has become a reliable target and a player defenses will need to keep track of going forward. I'm feeling pretty good about Brady.

 

[archstanton543]

So statistically Brady looks off? Okay so he played a quarter of the season without his favorite receiver. Gronk has been at least a half step slow this year (if he actually plays in the game at all). And they're down to using a wide receiver/punt returner as a running back. And the O-line isn't completely healthy either.

I'm not making excuses for a slight dip (and it is slight) in his stats but there are other factors involved besides Brady's age.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

My goodness...I cannot believe how many people are speculating that "the end is near" and that Brady is in decline based on this season. His passer rating would essentially the same as last year - an MVP season - if you took four fluke interceptions (that receivers handed to the defenders) off the board. And that's with a much less talented group of skill players.

If you want to go with "the eye test." it's very difficult to detect any drop in his velocity or really any downgrade in his play. The only thing I've seen this year is a few strange un-Brady like plays where he's held the ball too long and fumbled, but that has nothing to do with his physical abilities. And that's just a couple of plays, certainly nothing to get bent out of shape about.

I get it...the pundits are circling like sharks because Brady had an off game against the Bills. He had off games when he was 25. He had off games when he was 30. He had off games in 2007, 2010, and some playoff games. This wouldn't be a competitive sport otherwise.

The irony is I've been watching the Packers this year as well. Rodgers is actually in decline, but that isn't even on the radar, and as usual the pundits are on the wrong trail. He's completing just 61% of his passes, which is by far the most glaring number of either #12. Maybe it's his knee, but he hasn't been the same. I've seen a slow decline in his game for awhile now, and it makes sense since he relies so much on athleticism. I think he'll remain a very good quarterback for some years to come, but he is further away from his peak level than Brady.

 

[50-yard-line]

Rodgers is 7-7 in his last 14 starts. They should trade him to New England so he can back up Brady.

 

[tasmlab]

The Patriots have the 4th highest scoring team in the league, the team has lost a boat load of RB's and Brady did not have Edelman for the first half of the year and has been working with a banged up Gronk. He's also had a few perfectly thrown balls bounce off receivers hands for interceptions. (Colts game was perfect example) He has generally looked fine to me. Not his most impressive 8 game stretch but far from his worst either. He appears physically fine and there is no reason for me the believe that he will not play well the remainder of the year.

All of this plus the team made something like 29 transactions at WR this year.

Plus essentially new tackles.

...but now I'm just making excuses.

6-2

 

[TheRainMaker]

I think Brady looks fine. However, he does have his occasional throw behind the WR or dirt throw. The OL at times has been shaky, especially last Monday night. How many times was Brady throwing off his back foot and dancing around the pocket?

My main concern is the lack of separation from the WR’s. Aside from Edelman, Gronk and Gordon are constantly throwing forearms at the last second to try to gain separation on the DB to catch the ball. Are Gronk and Gordon still hurt or have they just lost a step?Hogan has played better than the beginning of the season now that he isn’t the main focus.

 

[Kdo5]

He isn't playing at an MVP level quite yet but I haven't seen any physical decline which is what is most important. If there was physical decline then we are talking about the end of the road.

Then you have to consider the situation thrust upon him. All of his RBs going into the season are IR'd or injured aside from White who is primarily a receiver.

He was given a laughable crop of receivers to start the season. Gronkowski is injured and playing at a less effective level than ever before. Edelman got back only recently from an ACL tear and in season acquisition of Gordon is still taking time to come together. As of now there is only two guys he can fully trust to produce and they are White and Edelman

It isn't particularly reasonable to expect for Brady to be throwing up MVP numbers and perfect games. Regardless he and the offense are still functioning at a relatively high level and largely covering for an underwhelming defense on most nights.

 

[luuked]

Agreed but Some peo0le may have some interesting thoughts now.

I skipped the last 2 pages on this thread because it will just develop into a circlejerk about Brady at some point. While I am sure that a lot of people might have good thoughts about it at this point I don't see there enough of a sample size to say anything of substance about Brady.

People that have read my stuff in the last few weeks know where I stand on the entire matter. That being said its 8 games in with an offense that has morphed a lot and might finally find its identity soon (hopefully ?).

Lets see how all of this plays out..

 

[Kontradiction]

He isn't playing at an MVP level quite yet but I haven't seen any physical decline which is what is most important. If there was physical decline then we are talking about the end of the road.

Then you have to consider the situation thrust upon him. All of his RBs going into the season are IR'd or injured aside from White who is primarily a receiver.

He was given a laughable crop of receivers to start the season. Gronkowski is injured and playing at a less effective level than ever before. Edelman got back only recently from an ACL tear and in season acquisition of Gordon is still taking time to come together. As of now there is only two guys he can fully trust to produce and they are White and Edelman

It isn't particularly reasonable to expect for Brady to be throwing up MVP numbers and perfect games. Regardless he and the offense are still functioning at a relatively high level and largely covering for an underwhelming defense on most nights.

Pretty much this. Health permitting, however, as Gordon and Edelman get their bearings underneath them, I expect him to return to an MVP level of play in the second half of the season.

 

[Deus Irae]

Pretty much this. Health permitting, however, as Gordon and Edelman get their bearings underneath them, I expect him to return to an MVP level of play in the second half of the season.

People seem to have forgotten that last year, post-JAG trade, many began with this same line of 'analysis'. Brady's numbers were down, and now Jimmy was gone! There were a couple of radio talk show guys who made it a staple of their show, and everything.

 

[Kontradiction]

People seem to have forgotten that last year, post-JAG trade, many began with this same line of 'analysis'. Brady's numbers were down, and now Jimmy was gone! There were a couple of radio talk show guys who made it a staple of their show, and everything.

Well, that continued into the offseason as well. hE's NoT mOtIvAtEd wItH jAg NoT hErE tO pUsHh HiM.

 

[The Brandon Five]

I don't know what people are seeing. The TD throw to White in the Lions game (likely his worst game of the year) was a work of art. The throw to Gordon in the endzone in the Colts game was 2007-esque.

They don't beat the explosive Chiefs without Tom F. Brady. Period.

 

[Hyped]

I love these articles and threads. No other quarterback is held to these insane standards....

And we are talking about a QB who threw for 505 yards and lost the Superbowl only 9 months ago....

Like Tommy said, "I'll retire when I suck..."

 

[QuantumMechanic]

People seem to have forgotten that last year, post-JAG trade, many began with this same line of 'analysis'. Brady's numbers were down, and now Jimmy was gone! There were a couple of radio talk show guys who made it a staple of their show, and everything.

"Down" or "not down" isn't all that meaningful. I wish there were more breakdowns of things.

For example, someone upstream mentioned that in games 5-8 Brady's completion percentage was 70%, up from the low 60s in the first four games. But, for example, is that increase in completion percentage caused by proportionally more easy throws to the backs or is it downfield stuff getting better?

Or say we look at just completion percentage (or, really, incompletion percentage). For the passes that are incomplete, how/why were they incomplete? Pretend that in both year N and year N+1 the incompletion percentage was 32% but in year N incompletions were primarily caused by miscommunications but in year N+1 they were primarily caused by off-target throws. That knowledge would be a useful piece of data, and one that is totally obscured by saying "his completion percentage was 68% both years, so obviously no drop-off".