An Interesting Article [Are we seeing Brady's inevitable decline?]

[HailHydra]

Are we finally seeing the start of Tom Brady’s inevitable decline?

By no means am I saying that Brady is becoming noticeably worse or poorer. It's just interesting to analyze the statistics since this article does provide a relatively comprenehsive review of his passing accuracy. Just from watching Brady's games, it just seems a bit off this year, but something I thought I'd share.

 

[luuked]

This is a conversation worth having after the season when we have a full picture of his year.

 

[TomPatriot]

This is a conversation worth having after the season when we have a full picture of his year.

Agreed but Some peo0le may have some interesting thoughts now.

 

[farn]

Brady has been, and continues to be, gold. He keeps winning and guiding NE to some amazing wins and excellent records. Just this year he outscored KC, who many thought was the class of the League at the time. I still have much trust in him and if NE does NOT win the championship this February, I’m fairly certain Brady won’t be the weakest link.

Having said that : I’m open to the possibility Brady « isn’t what he once was ». What he once was hasn’t been seen before.

Long story short : though I still consider Brady to be amongst the best in the NFL, I am not blinded enough to say « he is every bit as good he always was ». And - as has been stated by many posters on here - eventually one of these writers will publish the cliff-story and be right. We just have no idea how far in the future that will be....

 

[Doctor DDS]

The Patriots have the 4th highest scoring team in the league, the team has lost a boat load of RB's and Brady did not have Edelman for the first half of the year and has been working with a banged up Gronk. He's also had a few perfectly thrown balls bounce off receivers hands for interceptions. (Colts game was perfect example) He has generally looked fine to me. Not his most impressive 8 game stretch but far from his worst either. He appears physically fine and there is no reason for me the believe that he will not play well the remainder of the year.

 

[IcyPatriot]

The money shot is still there ... that's all that matters.

 

[jah]

If he is declining, it sure is a different kind of decline from what we saw with Peyton. Seems more mental than physical and to me, that's more concerning.

 

[GorBelSer]

Well, his first couple of years in the NFL were far from exemplary. I remember some of those early games, he was missing receivers left and right and farthest he could go was 20 yards. Much of the problem lies in the fact Gronkowski has not been the same this year and we lost Amendola with whom Brady had great rapport. And Dorsett was supposed to replace Cooks.

 

[Angelpats]

He has had down years and bad games before, but he still finds a way to win. Some of his passes seems to be a little off or have lost some velocity but it’s nothing that can be worked upon. I rewatched some of the games and most of the bad passes were caused by pressure but a few were just for self preservation, which I agree with because if he gets hurt then we will be like most teams who gets their franchise qb IRed for the season.

 

[mosi]

Well, his first couple of years in the NFL were far from exemplary. I remember some of those early games, he was missing receivers left and right and farthest he could go was 20 yards. Much of the problem lies in the fact Gronkowski has not been the same this year and we lost Amendola with whom Brady had great rapport. And Dorsett was supposed to replace Cooks.

Yeah, people forget that Brady in his early years, was a solid QB but not spectacular. He was given the time and environment to mature.

Brady will decline. It is natural and expected. I think a major issue this year is that Jules is taking some time to return to be the Jules from 2 years ago, Gronk looks injured, Hogan looks injured, Dorsett is a non factor and Gordon just got here. The only guy Brady can really rely on is James White.

 

[jmt57]

Consider who Brady has had available to work with thus far.

• Edelman missed half the season to this point.
• Gronk has been dinged and missed a game.
• His replacements at TE are Hollister (injured) and Allen (strictly a blocker).
• Hogan has missed time with injuries too.
• Dorsett has never been a starter, averaging 21 receptions per season.
• Gordon was a late arrival, and we know how long it takes to understand the offense and get on the same page.
• Patterson has never been a starter, never had more than 470 yards receiving in a year.

Gone from 2017 are:

• Cooks (65 receptions)
• Amendola (61)
• Lewis (32)
• Burkhead (30)

In addition, receivers who were with the Patriots in the off season and (one or more) were being counted on did not pan out due to injury or other reasons:

• Kenny Britt
• Jordan Matthews
• Malcolm Mitchell
• Eric Decker
• Devin Lucien (okay, that one's a reach)

- Receiver is not a plug and play position like kicker.
- It take time to learn the system.
- It takes time for the WR to see the same coverage on defense as the QB (just ask Chad Johnson or Joey Galloway).


The numbers do not come close to telling the full story - especially this early in the season.

 

[Patjew]

He’s declining. It’s obvious.

And I still feel so privileged to watch every snap of his. Love the man.

 

[Coolade2]

Of all the incompletion categories, they forgot the most irritating..

PETULANT THROW AWAYS

[insert video of bombs away intentional grounding ]

In certain situations Brady can become annoyed at receivers who are not reading his mind on complicated option routes where the receiver makes a different read.. in these cases Brady will Chuck the ball miles over the receivers head... usually a followed by head shaking , raising hand in receiver direction , or just a disgusted trot off the field after 3rd down...

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

If he is declining, it sure is a different kind of decline from what we saw with Peyton. Seems more mental than physical and to me, that's more concerning.

That’s what it appeared to be with P Manning. Second half of 2014 he started throwing a lot of interceptions with seemingly the same arm strength that he had in 2013 (55 TDS).

Something seems off with Brady, but take away all those flukey bobbled interceptions and he really has 3-4 in half a season. Considering this is a really uncomfortable offense for him with a lot of shaky receivers, I think that’s very impressive.

 

[Nehalem]

The Patriots leading receiver is currently James White, a running back, who is on pace to shatter the record for most catches by a RB in a season 110 vs 102(current record).

 

[jah]

That’s what it appeared to be with P Manning. Second half of 2014 he started throwing a lot of interceptions with seemingly the same arm strength that he had in 2013 (55 TDS).

Something seems off with Brady, but take away all those flukey bobbled interceptions and he really has 3-4 in half a season. Considering this is a really uncomfortable offense for him with a lot of shaky receivers, I think that’s very impressive.

Brady's been fine, I agree. Just entertaining the idea of a decline for discussion's sake.

 

[Tuck]

I'm not big on stats but I will concede he looks a little more flat footed in the pocket lately, so I would agree that aspect of his game is trending down but who knows if it will continue in that direction. Arm strength and decision making are still there and hes still throwing a nice tight spiral so I'm not worried.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

He will take care of Rodger's Green Bay Packers

 

[Shockt327]

That’s what it appeared to be with P Manning. Second half of 2014 he started throwing a lot of interceptions with seemingly the same arm strength that he had in 2013 (55 TDS).

What?!

Peyton Manning absolutely fell off a cliff mid-way through 2014, and Denver totally revamped their pass heavy offense -- Peyton Manning's offense -- to be run-first in order to account for this. It was baffling, unprecedented, and lead to speculation that it was related to the NFL adopting HGH testing right before the 2014 season started. That speculation, which we later learned, had merit to it.

 

[Coolade2]

I'm not big on stats but I will concede he looks a little more flat footed in the pocket lately, so I would agree that aspect of his game is trending down but who knows if it will continue in that direction. Arm strength and decision making are still there and hes still throwing a nice tight spiral so I'm not worried.

True.. I think footwork might be a thing to look at. But Brady makes up for physical mistakes with competitive sheer will to win and intelligence. Try measuring that.