OT-ish: The gambling thread

[fnordcircle]

Goddamn Patriots.

 

[supafly]

Goddamn Patriots.

Just be glad that you covered with that sizable wager in week one. That was a big ****ed move, right there.

 

[Joker]

pay up, Fjord..or else you'll end up sleepin' with the herring

 

[fnordcircle]

pay up, Fjord..or else you'll end up sleepin' with the herring

Sigh, ok.

*unzips*

 

[Froob]

Bet vs Fitzpatrick weeks 1 & 2 and on Fitzpatrick week 3

 

[supafly]

Bet vs Fitzpatrick weeks 1 & 2 and on Fitzpatrick week 3

That sh!t happens to me whenever the SD Chargers are involved. Doesn’t matter if I pick them or against them. I’ve learned to stay away from them, altogether.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

I'm a rich man today boys, I'll upgrade my Wendy's meal to a Large to match my fat stacks

Maybe throw a baconator fry in there too and just get crazy with it

 

[XLIX]

I'm a rich man today boys, I'll upgrade my Wendy's meal to a Large to match my fat stacks

Maybe throw a baconator fry in there too and just get crazy with it

After this last weekend, I won’t be eating at Wendy’s, I’ll be taking a 2nd job there to pay my bills.

Would you like fries with that, sir..?

 

[Froob]

That sh!t happens to me whenever the SD Chargers are involved. Doesn’t matter if I pick them or against them. I’ve learned to stay away from them, altogether.

Lol speaking of them, I just put $25 on Chargers -10.5 over the 49ers.

 

[Soliel]

I’m looking like the guy in a barrel on cartoons

 

[1960Pats]

That sh!t happens to me whenever the SD Chargers are involved. Doesn’t matter if I pick them or against them. I’ve learned to stay away from them, altogether.

Hmmmm, the Chargers again.

Btw, did you happen to see the boneheaded play by one of the Chargers DBs vs the Rams? First he made a nice end zone INT trailing 14-6 to end a drive at the goal line and then, instead of taking a knee or heading up the sideline for some yardage, he took it out of the end zone and went out at the 1 foot line. Four plays later the Rams blocked the punt for a TD. Those are the kind of plays that make me glad I don't put money on games anymore.

 

[ChessToCheckers]

I remember reading some analysis back like 4-5 years ago that betting nothing but Home dogs would put money in your pocket for like, the previous 5 years. It was an overall thing, though, and you basically had to bet every home dog to have come out ahead, but it was impressive, I could be wrong but I distinctly remember the article making it seem like you'd come out ahead even when you account for the book's take.

Makes sense too. The game isn't guessing the games so much as smart money taking $ from homers. Unfortunately, when it comes to the Pats I'm one of the people swapping bags with the smart money a lot of the time, but whatever.

I wanted to go back and look at how home dogs have fared the last few years to see if the previous streak had held up but I keep forgetting to do so.

I believe you are referring to the famous "Market Bias" paper(s) that came out mid-decade. The bias (home underdogs) was well documented, mathematically sound, and made some "nerds" some serious money. Within a few months of it's publication, the bias, of course, disappeared, since lines and the action adjusted accordingly.

Pretty wild stuff!

 

[jmt57]

Tuesday Evening's NFL Week 4 Odds:
Vikings at Rams (-6½) [TNF]
Dolphins at Patriots (-7)
Texans at Colts (-1½)
Bengals at Falcons (-5½)
Bills at Packers (-10)
Lions at Cowboys (-3)
Jets at Jaguars (-7½)
Bucs at Bears (-3)
Eagles (-4) at Titans
Seahawks (-3) at Cardinals
Browns at Raiders (-2½)
Niners at Chargers (-10½)
Saints (-3½) at Giants
Ravens at Steelers (-3) [SNF]
Chiefs (-5) at Broncos [MNF]

At first glance and with no research, Atlanta, Dallas, Jax and Oakland appear intriguing.



Westgate's Week Five Early Look-ahead Odds:
Colts at Patriots (-8) [TNF]
Ravens (-1) at Browns
Jaguars at Chiefs (-3½)
Titans (-3) at Bills
Giants at Panthers (-6)
Broncos at Jets (-2½)
Falcons at Steelers (-3)
Packers at Lions (pick'em)
Dolphins at Bengals (-4)
Raiders at Chargers (-6½)
Cardinals at Niners (-2½)
Vikings at Eagles (-3)
Rams (-7) at Seahawks
Cowboys at Texans (-4½) [SNF]
Redskins at Saints (-7) [MNF]

These odds will change after the week four games, but right now Denver could be a possibility.

 

[fnordcircle]

$1k on the Patriots -7. Maybe that's the lucky number.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

$1k on the Patriots -7. Maybe that's the lucky number.

You’re a brave man.

 

[Soliel]

This might be a good make up week. I am not Braxton be enough to mess with -7 right now. If we play like the last two weeks we will be lucky to lose by less than ten

 

[fightingirish595]

I'm a rich man today boys, I'll upgrade my Wendy's meal to a Large to match my fat stacks

Maybe throw a baconator fry in there too and just get crazy with it

Baconators are unreal. Between Wendy’s Burger King and McDonald’s. That might be the best burger. Although I love getting a mchciken and a McDouble from McDonald’s and combining them

 

[1960Pats]

Tuesday Evening's NFL Week 4 Odds:
Vikings at Rams (-6½) [TNF]
Dolphins at Patriots (-7)
Texans at Colts (-1½)
Bengals at Falcons (-5½)
Bills at Packers (-10)
Lions at Cowboys (-3)
Jets at Jaguars (-7½)
Bucs at Bears (-3)
Eagles (-4) at Titans
Seahawks (-3) at Cardinals
Browns at Raiders (-2½)
Niners at Chargers (-10½)
Saints (-3½) at Giants
Ravens at Steelers (-3) [SNF]
Chiefs (-5) at Broncos [MNF]

At first glance and with no research, Atlanta, Dallas, Jax and Oakland appear intriguing.

I'll go with Rams (I did pick them), ?
Jags, ?
Phins, ?
Eagles, ?
Indy, ?
GB, ?
Dal, ?
TB, ?
Atl, ?
Sea, -Push-
Oak, ?
NO, ?
LAC, ?
Pitt ?
and KC. ?

 

[BobDigital]

So FYI. Never bet on the NFL early in the year. It leads to nothing but trouble. I wouldn't encourage anyone to take any bets i make till mid year.

Week 2- 1-2-1
Week 3 1-3

Week 4

Fins @ Pats - 6.5 - Pats - The Pats aren't this bad and the Fins aren't this good. I think they turn it around ?

Indy -1 @ Houston - Indy - Houston is just playing like ass and I like Indy at home. I don't see things turning around for them this week. ?

Bills @ GB - 44.5 - over - After the stinker last week from GB they should bounce back. The Bills offense will probably hold up their end and drop 20 on a so-so D. ?

Philly -3 @ Tenn - People may be over estimating Tenn cause of how they played the Jags last week. People forget the Jags just came off their personal super bowl. Of course they were going to have a down game. Wentz in his 2nd start will be better vs an average team. That Philly D will get work down vs that offense. ?

Hopefully i turn it around this week.

 

[luuked]

Philly -3 @ Tenn - People may be over estimating Tenn cause of how they played the Jags last week. People forget the Jags just came off their personal super bowl. Of course they were going to have a down game. Wentz in his 2nd start will be better vs an average team. That Philly D will get work down vs that offense.

I think this might be close to my bet of the week. I can't believe the line is -3 given how mediocre the Titans have looked in general and pretty awful on offense in particular.