Jimmy G reportedly gets his deal:

[rochrist]

Yes, but why not "cap" the cap, and keep the revenues? I get that the teams are in competition with each other, but they're also parts of a single corporate entity which has no peers in market. McDonald's franchisees are also in competition with each other, but that doesn't stop the governing corporation from deciding the minimum and maximum cost for the product.

That would be illegal in so very many ways.

 

[rochrist]

Big if there. Tellin' you guys, the league's got its problems, the economy's been on a winning streak that won't last forever, and those Jimmy G numbers aren't "percentage of team cap space"

But when have the 9ers ever been in cap trouble?

Fox Sports just paid 3.3 billion dollars for THURSDAY football.

Also, Verizon just made a deal to pay 2.5 billion a year for streaming rights.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

A contract length and total value are great headlines, however, it doesn't necessarily speak to real years and dollars. Guarntees and outs shape that hidden, actual contract.
Yet from what little I gather there is 90 million guaranteed in the first 3 years. That is incredible. 30m average guaranteed cash for each of the first 3 years for a guy with 6 games of NFL experience? Wowsa...

If they get Jimmy of these last half dozen games then it's understandable cash. With a good HC and a decent D they can be contenders for an extended period of time. But that much money for a guy with 6 games of starting NFL experience -- a guy who few DCs in the league have studied, watched, put in plans to specific against him? Despite looking great in those games this is one very MF serious gamble. Again if it pans out they are a new top tier team in the NFC for some years but if it doesn't pan out this will probably cement the 49ers as bottom dwellers for quite a long while.

 

[Deus Irae]

Exactly. I once went to SportTrac (I believe that was it) to get the actual cash received figures for Manning and Brady. If you start with each guy's second contract, Brady's average annual cash received was only about $1 million less than Manning's average annual cash received (something like $13mil vs. $14mil). So the idea of Brady taking some sort of massive discount (at least relative to Manning) is very overblown.

You might want to check that again. Those numbers seemed off, or at least misleading, to me, when I thought on it. Manning was on his rookie deal for a lot longer than Brady was on his, for example. Tom got a renegotiated deal after just 2 seasons, while Peyton played out that entire 6 year rookie deal, and $55,389,794 seemed like a big number gap for just 2 "underpaid" Brady seasons (even if you ramped those two sub $300k seasons to $10m seasons, we'd be looking at a $35m difference, which would still be about a $1.9m difference per year over 18 year careers), so I played very sleepy junior mathematician. And, to look at as even a slate as possible, I looked at their 2004 and 2005 contracts, leveled out at 2005, and went from there.

If my math is correct (and it's late, so it may very well not be, and I apologize if it's not), from 2005 to the present, Brady has made $173,264,706. From 2005 to his retirement in 2016, Manning made $187,400,0000ish (I had to play a bit with the 2004 contract in order to make 2005 the even point, so I went with APY of his entire contract, rather than the specific outlay in 2004). So, from 2005-2015, Manning made an APY of $17,036363, while Brady has made an APY of $13,328,054. That's a difference of $3,708,309 APY. Again, that's if my math is right, and my apologies if it's not.


Tom Brady Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap
Peyton Manning Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap

 

[DarrylS]

While this is all shiny beads today, there will be subsequent adjustments by the 49'ers to make it more cap friendly as they sign more players..

Nice contract though, guess he would not have taken a home town discount to stay with the Pats..

 

[varjao]

These GMs/owners are crazy with every QB contract going over the previous one.
The owners can collude to keep players out of the league but can't they collude to decide not going over a certain amount of dollars for any player?

I guess this mess is intentional

 

[Simpelton]

Big if there. Tellin' you guys, the league's got its problems, the economy's been on a winning streak that won't last forever, and those Jimmy G numbers aren't "percentage of team cap space"

But when have the 9ers ever been in cap trouble?

If the league "got its problems." why do revenues keep going up?

I think the so called malaise of the league is badly overblown. They had a few image problems this year. Probably worse than the average due to the kneeling thing and how poorly that played in Middle America but nowhere near the worst they've ever seen. As long as the hits don't keep on coming, they can weather this like they do so many other scandals and issues.

People like to fixate on TV viewership. The fact is that TV viewership has been a smaller chunk of sports team revenue that it had been in decades thanks to new media sources. I know i for one don't have TV, if I take in a game, it's on a livestream. They livestreamed the Superbowl on the NFL.com website, and judging by how waterlogged the servers were, lots of people had their eyeballs there. So yeah, TV revenue is down but they've done a fair job of divorcing themselves from the typical dependence on TV revenue.

I think the NFL is much healthier than the Pundits (especially the TV pundits who definitely have a dog in this fight) want us to believe.

 

[Simpelton]

A contract length and total value are great headlines, however, it doesn't necessarily speak to real years and dollars. Guarntees and outs shape that hidden, actual contract.
Yet from what little I gather there is 90 million guaranteed in the first 3 years. That is incredible. 30m average guaranteed cash for each of the first 3 years for a guy with 6 games of NFL experience? Wowsa...

If they get Jimmy of these last half dozen games then it's understandable cash. With a good HC and a decent D they can be contenders for an extended period of time. But that much money for a guy with 6 games of starting NFL experience -- a guy who few DCs in the league have studied, watched, put in plans to specific against him? Despite looking great in those games this is one very MF serious gamble. Again if it pans out they are a new top tier team in the NFC for some years but if it doesn't pan out this will probably cement the 49ers as bottom dwellers for quite a long while.

you can't count Jimmy's value just based on his live game time. He's probably the best-developed quarterback that never played. He's learned at the feet of the best of the very best for multiple seasons and was ready to go in all of those games if required to, both physically and mentally.

The most viable comp to Garoppolo I can think of is another highly touted young quarterback who was locked behind a premiere superstar for years before he got his chance -- some guy up in the north woods named Aaron Rodgers.

Yes his live experience is limited, but he was effective when he was in there for us, and followed that up by going on a winning streak on a team that was 1-10 before he got there and played some playoff teams when he was there. Including one that gave us quite a run for our money (Jags).

Combine that with the fact that the 49er fans adore him, the fact that he's got an incredibly marketable face and just looks like a leader on the field, Lynch had to do something. He's got a ton of room thanks to all the rookie contracts on his roster right now so this was something of a no brainer.

Believe me, Jimmy Garoppolo will make his money back for the team in revenue as long as he's not injured or terrible. Having that premiere face you can sell to your investors and fans and convince them to buy in is worth mad cash money in a professional sports league, and restoring the 49er faithful's faith in the franchise after the Kaepernick debacle is probably worth the 27 mil all by itself as far as ownership is concerned.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

49ers had to do what they could to keep the GOAT 49ers QB

 

[bresna]

Not many teams have done well using the "Pay the QB big bucks" model.

 

[Nehalem]

you can't count Jimmy's value just based on his live game time. He's probably the best-developed quarterback that never played. He's learned at the feet of the best of the very best for multiple seasons and was ready to go in all of those games if required to, both physically and mentally.

The most viable comp to Garoppolo I can think of is another highly touted young quarterback who was locked behind a premiere superstar for years before he got his chance -- some guy up in the north woods named Aaron Rodgers.

Yes his live experience is limited, but he was effective when he was in there for us, and followed that up by going on a winning streak on a team that was 1-10 before he got there and played some playoff teams when he was there. Including one that gave us quite a run for our money (Jags).

Combine that with the fact that the 49er fans adore him, the fact that he's got an incredibly marketable face and just looks like a leader on the field, Lynch had to do something. He's got a ton of room thanks to all the rookie contracts on his roster right now so this was something of a no brainer.

Believe me, Jimmy Garoppolo will make his money back for the team in revenue as long as he's not injured or terrible. Having that premiere face you can sell to your investors and fans and convince them to buy in is worth mad cash money in a professional sports league, and restoring the 49er faithful's faith in the franchise after the Kaepernick debacle is probably worth the 27 mil all by itself as far as ownership is concerned.

Aaron Rodgers took a team that was 12-4 and went 6-10
JG took a team that was 2-14(then 1-10) and went 5-0 with half a playbook(also 2-0 with Pats)

JG actually looks better than Aaron Rodgers

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Exactly. I once went to SportTrac (I believe that was it) to get the actual cash received figures for Manning and Brady. If you start with each guy's second contract, Brady's average annual cash received was only about $1 million less than Manning's average annual cash received (something like $13mil vs. $14mil). So the idea of Brady taking some sort of massive discount (at least relative to Manning) is very overblown.

To clarify, read what I wrote: not that he took a hometown discount, but that he worked with the team to manage the cap.

That said, cf Manning v Brady re: their “avg per year.” What’s the percentage diff. B/w them? If you take manning as an equiv. Benchmark, that’s the rough percentage discount, without accounting for other factors.

Add in any cap inflation b/w final contracts to date and account for their respective results, and you’ll have something like the discount measured against 1 data point.

More later.

PFnV

 

[Soliel]

I think he has the potential to be better than Rodgers. Right now tho, I’d have to see what happens when there’s more tape

 

[Simpelton]

I think he has the potential to be better than Rodgers. Right now tho, I’d have to see what happens when there’s more tape

Agreed with that, but I don't know exactly how more tape is supposed to help with Garoppolo's quick draw abilities which are even better than Brady's. As long as they have guys who can get YAC's like Goodwin, Kittle, and Juschek, that's gonna be a good offense. Goodwin, Kittle and Juschek remind me very much of Edelman, Gronk and Burkhead, they've got the talent there to give a QB a chance to thrive and prevent defenses from dominating a quarterback by taking one or two options away. Kyle Juschek in particular is one of the best fullbacks I've seen in action in a very long time, able to be very active in the receiving game as well as strong in the blocking game, he's gonna be a stud.

The only way to stop a guy like that is to learn how to think with him, or to get enough pressure on him that he can't throw accurately. It's the same problem as trying to stop Brady, only Garoppolo can roll out better if the pressure gets too hot.

The only thing that remains to be seen is if Jimmy G can perform under pressure in a Bradylike manner... early returns however are very good. Jimmy G is going to be a thorny problem for defense planners throughout the NFC West.

 

[Soliel]

Agreed with that, but I don't know exactly how more tape is supposed to help with Garoppolo's quick draw abilities which are even better than Brady's. As long as they have guys who can get YAC's like Goodwin, Kittle, and Juschek, that's gonna be a good offense. Goodwin, Kittle and Juschek remind me very much of Edelman, Gronk and Burkhead, they've got the talent there to give a QB a chance to thrive and prevent defenses from dominating a quarterback by taking one or two options away.

The only way to stop a guy like that is to learn how to think with him, or to get enough pressure on him that he can't throw accurately. It's the same problem as trying to stop Brady, only Garoppolo can roll out better if the pressure gets too hot.

The only thing that remains to be seen is if Jimmy G can perform under pressure in a Bradylike manner... early returns however are very good. Jimmy G is going to be a thorny problem for defense planners throughout the NFC West.

It may not help much having more tape to study. The guy in Dallas didn’t look as good this year though. Defensive Coordinators have his number now.

 

[Simpelton]

It may not help much having more tape to study. The guy in Dallas didn’t look as good this year though. Defensive Coordinators have his number now.

Dak Prescott was a pleasant surprise last year. He was originally considered comparable with Jacoby Brissett and has regressed to roughly the same level once the league got a chance to see him. This is because he lacks a standout "calling card" talent or ability that the league can't adjust to.

Injuries and the long suspension to Elliott also did not help Prescott at all.

Garoppolo on the other hand has that ridiculously quick release that's going to give teams problems no matter how ready for him they think they are. I think that's a pretty substantial fundamental difference.

 

[Simpelton]

In other words, football is still very strong and healthy, even with the recent controversy, and any real concern about the overall health of the league is so much noise in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Ivan]

Agreed with that, but I don't know exactly how more tape is supposed to help with Garoppolo's quick draw abilities which are even better than Brady's. As long as they have guys who can get YAC's like Goodwin, Kittle, and Juschek, that's gonna be a good offense. Goodwin, Kittle and Juschek remind me very much of Edelman, Gronk and Burkhead, they've got the talent there to give a QB a chance to thrive and prevent defenses from dominating a quarterback by taking one or two options away. Kyle Juschek in particular is one of the best fullbacks I've seen in action in a very long time, able to be very active in the receiving game as well as strong in the blocking game, he's gonna be a stud.

The only way to stop a guy like that is to learn how to think with him, or to get enough pressure on him that he can't throw accurately. It's the same problem as trying to stop Brady, only Garoppolo can roll out better if the pressure gets too hot.

The only thing that remains to be seen is if Jimmy G can perform under pressure in a Bradylike manner... early returns however are very good. Jimmy G is going to be a thorny problem for defense planners throughout the NFC West.

He has to show he can make it through a full season, and that he can adapt and perform at a high level when defensive coordinators take away his strengths, and he will have to show that he can overcome adversity when it strikes. He definitely has the athleticism and skill set but there’s still a great deal to prove.

 

[Simpelton]

He has to show he can make it through a full season, and that he can adapt and perform at a high level when defensive coordinators take away his strengths, and he will have to show that he can overcome adversity when it strikes. He definitely has the athleticism and skill set but there’s still a great deal to prove.

I'd love to know how a DC can take away his strengths when his strengths are a quick draw with excellent accuracy in the short pass. We saw the Jags try ti jam the middle, and Jimmy G just found Kittle or Bourne behind most of the crowd for large gains. And they'd had both a very talented D and plenty of film to go over by that point to try to develop a game plan for him.

When Jimmy G takes a 1-10 team and beats the Jags more convincingly than we did, I think it's fair to speculate that he's gonna be pretty good. I agree about health, but I also do want to point out that the shoulder injury Garoppolo suffered against the Phins in Week 2 last year was pretty fluky, it wasn't a sign of "being injury prone," it was nothing more than a bad fall like can happen to literally anyone.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The only way to stop a guy like that is to learn how to think with him, or to get enough pressure on him that he can't throw accurately. It's the same problem as trying to stop Brady, only Garoppolo can roll out better if the pressure gets too hot.

It's worse than that. Even when defenders know where Garoppolo is going and start breaking on the ball before he throws, he can still get the pass in before the defenders get there.