Future Extension for Cooks

[RobertWeathers]

What the heck is Gronk worth on the open market if Cooks is around $12M???

With the year he's had? $15m per is the starting point.

Gronk changes an entire offense. Running game, passing, etc. Plus he's a fan draw. That counts

 

[HailHydra]

Given the Pats' history of difficulties integrating new pass-catchers (WRs & TEs, primarily) into their offensive system ...

And given the fact that three of the Pats top pass-catchers from last season became suddenly and unexpectedly unavailable at the last minute (plus, Bennett was gone in FA) ...

While I, too, have not been "Wowed" by any single play from Cooks (comparisons to Gronk are kinda unfair here), I think Cooks' body of work for the season has been pretty impressive.

Looking forward ...

There's tomorrow and (hopefully) three playoff games remaining (including the SB). There's at least some possibility that both Mitchell and Hogan are back on the field for at least some of those, legitimately drawing coverage away from Cooks a bit. So, there may be some opportunities left for Cooks to make a "Wow" play or two yet this season.

Then there's Free Agency, during which we'll see what actually happens to the market price of veteran WRs in 2018. At this point, we only have the Jeffery and Adams contract extensions to go by.

After that, there's the draft - which may or may not bring another 6-8 really good, young WRs into the market.

After that, there's the Pats own roster-building process through OTAs and into Camp, during which time BB and the coaches will have further opportunities to observe what more Cooks may be able to do (and Amednola/Edelman/Hogan/Mitchell/Dorsett/whoever).

So, the Pats don't really need to decide on an extension offer amount for Cooks until they have more information, and there's a lot more of that coming.

Cooks hasn't been nearly as unproductive as people talk about. In fact, more of the blame should actually lie on Brady who consistently misses Cooks at least once or twice a game. In the Dolphins game for example, there were at least plays where Cooks was able to stretch the field but Brady either under, or overthrew Cooks. Considering those would have been big plays, Cooks could have easily tacked on 200-300 more yards over the course of the season. He also draws quite a few penalties which - if added to total yardage - would be impressive.

I think that Cooks might be the type of player to take a slight hometown discount to stay with the Patriots. I just have that feeling and hope that he can re-sign with us for 12-13/year. If Madden sim is anything to go on, he almost always becomes a 95+ receiver within 2 years :3

 

[HailHydra]

With the year he's had? $15m per is the starting point.

Gronk changes an entire offense. Running game, passing, etc. Plus he's a fan draw. That counts

It's honestly impossible to believe the deal that he's on right now. Even with the incentives, it's SUCH a bargain.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Obviously, the Patriots have not found a top dollar wide receiver to be a necessity for winning super bowls, therefore the substitution effect is in order. As long as they can find Edelman's, Hogans, Amendola's, Welkers. Branches, Troy Browns, and win SBs, the marginal utility of a 15 million dollar contract is not positive.

The opportunity cost of an extra 10 million a year could be a top DL or OL, or both.

That was when the cap was not $180m. As long as you don't have stupid dead money you can do a heavy front loaded deal for a player in their prime

 

[luuked]

What the heck is Gronk worth on the open market if Cooks is around $12M???

Cook's floor this year is around 13-14M thanks to GB and most probably closer to 15M in a year when he becomes a FA.

Gronk will be the biggest non-QB contract in the league if he doesn't suffer a career ender until 2020. I think someone can potentially write a PhD Thesis on how BB and Caserio used the old CBA and nailed the timing on Gronks contract to keep him at those relatively low figures throughout his stay with us.

 

[luuked]

I think we disagree on Cooks's current/future value. The play vs HOU to win the game was elite.

I dont think we are actually that far apart on his value. I really like him but to me the most memorable play in the game was not Cooks' TD but Dolas 3rd & 18 conversion.

But then again Cooks often makes it seem so smooth that he kinda makes amazing athletics feats look ordinary so I might definitely undersell that TD catch.

It might seems like I am a downer on the entire Cooks front but I would do the trade again 100 out of 100 times. I just think that for us to keep him at market value our coaching staff, our QB and Cooks himself will need to figure out some ways to use him a bit more creatively. But then again it was his first year here..

*Insert appropriate Larry David gif*

 

[HailHydra]

I dont think we are actually that far apart on his value. I really like him but to me the most memorable play in the game was not Cooks' TD but Dolas 3rd & 18 conversion.

But then again Cooks often makes it seem so smooth that he kinda makes amazing athletics feats look ordinary so I might definitely undersell that TD catch.

It might seems like I am a downer on the entire Cooks front but I would do the trade again 100 out of 100 times. I just think that for us to keep him at market value our coaching staff, our QB and Cooks himself will need to figure out some ways to use him a bit more creatively. But then again it was his first year here..

*Insert appropriate Larry David gif*

I wish we could have traded Butler for Cooks straight up :/

 

[JMC00]

Only the 6th season 2 Pats have had 1k+ yards

'79 Morgan & Jackson

'07 Moss & Welker

'08 Moss & Welker

'09 Moss & Welker

'11 Gronk & Welker

'17 Gronk & Cooks


So let's not act like the guy was a bum this year... He was just part of something some of the best pass catchers the Pats have ever had did.

Going into week 17 there are only 13 guys in the league with 1k+ yards.

 

[maineman209]

... hasn’t gotten much of anything out of his first rounders since 2012. Hopefully, Malcolm Brown changes that.

Quasi-interesting factoid ...

After his first 45 regular season games, and a couple months after his 25th birthday, Wilfork had posted 3.5 sacks and 146 total tackles.

After his first 44 regular season games, and about a month before his 24th birthday, Brown has posted 8.5 sacks and 145 total tackles.

Different roles in different schemes, but it's not as if Brown has been a slacker.

 

[JMC00]

Hopefully, Malcolm Brown changes that.

The fact that you think Brown hasn't produced is hilarious

 

[farn]

I think Cook is a player who both has (1) potential and (2) been productive this year.

It would be hard to fork over 14-15M$ though... Gronk changes games. While Cooks produces, I’ve only felt on a handful of plays I’d did really make “the huge play”. I hope the playoffs are his stage to shine.

 

[maineman209]

What the heck is Gronk worth on the open market if Cooks is around $12M???

Several metric Gronk-tonnes.

 

[tom444]

Current APY ranges:

Top-five (Antonio Brown thru Demaryius Thomas) = $17M - $14M
Next five (down thru Keenan Allen) = $13M - $11.2M
3rd five (down thru Allen Hurns) = $11.1M - $10.1M
4th five (down thru Marvin Jones) = $10M - $8M

That's just for 2017. The Alshon Jeffery and Davante Adams contracts will already be pushing everybody downward from about #6. Also note that the real-world contributions of at least a few of the top-20 aren't particularly commensurate with their pay (and none are particularly "underpaid").

So, define "big bucks".

So, define "big bucks"

"Top-five (Antonio Brown thru Demaryius Thomas) = $17M - $14M
Next five (down thru Keenan Allen) = $13M - $11.2M"

Maybe even:

"3rd five (down thru Allen Hurns) = $11.1M - $10.1M"

 

[tom444]

Who would you rather have ? Marvin Jones for 8.6m or Chris Hogan for 3.5m next year ?

I have to plead the 5th because I don't know enough about Marvin Jones, what he's like, how he would pick up our system, etc.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I dont think we are actually that far apart on his value. I really like him but to me the most memorable play in the game was not Cooks' TD but Dolas 3rd & 18 conversion.

But then again Cooks often makes it seem so smooth that he kinda makes amazing athletics feats look ordinary so I might definitely undersell that TD catch.

It might seems like I am a downer on the entire Cooks front but I would do the trade again 100 out of 100 times. I just think that for us to keep him at market value our coaching staff, our QB and Cooks himself will need to figure out some ways to use him a bit more creatively. But then again it was his first year here..

*Insert appropriate Larry David gif*

 

[PatsFan2]

Brandin Cooks is not an Elite WR Nuff said . 2014 NFL Draft is up for up for FA it features some very good WR's including Cooks. Guys I like in FA 2018 Marqise Lee - Allen Robinson (Jags) - Jarvis Landry(Miami) or John Brown (Arizona). Pats need to cut bait with their current WR Scouts worse in Game.

 

[maineman209]

I'm not attempting to project Cooks' market value or value to the Pats here. Just trying to put today's WR $APY into historical perspective vis-a-vis the difference in league salary cap.

In 2009, the league salary cap was $123M. The Top-10 WR $APY were ...

#1 = $10.8M = 8.8% of the cap (Ochocinco)
#2 = $10.5M
#3 = $10.0M
#4 = $9.9M
#5 = $9.3M
#6/#7 = $9.0M = Moss = 7.3% of the cap
#8 = $8.8M
#9 = $8.5M
#10 = $8.3M = 6.7% of the cap (Lee Evans)
-------------------------------------------------

In 2018, the salary cap is estimated to be about $178M. The Top-10 WR $APY are (at the moment) ...

#1 = $17.0M = 9.55% of the cap (Antonio Brown)
#2 = $16.2M
#3 = $15.0M
#4 = $14.5M
#5 = $14.25M
#6/#7 = $14.0M
#8/#9/#10 = $13.0M = 7.3% of the cap (Moss)
#11 = $11.5M = 6.5% of the cap (Doug Baldwin)

So, with 7.3% of today's cap dollars, Moss would've been getting about $13M APY and tied for 8th highest with T.Y. Hilton and Alshon Jeffery.

- At $11M APY, Cooks would be at about 6.2% of the cap, tied for 14th with Sanders & Fitzgerald, and just below DeSean Jackson.

- At $10M APY, Cooks would be at about 5.6% of the cap, tied for 16th with Cobb and just below Hurns and Tavon Austin.

 

[maineman209]

Who would you rather have ? Marvin Jones for 8.6m or Chris Hogan for 3.5m next year ?

Marvin Jones (6'2"/200) with the Lions at $8.0M APY:
2016 ... 55/103 (53.4%), 930 yds, 16.9 YPA, 4 TD (#2 passing target)
2017 ... 57/102 (55.9%), 1020 yds, 17.9 YPA, 8 TD (#2 passing target) ... thru 15 games

Hogan (6'1"/220) at $4.0M APY:
2016 ... 38/58 (65.5%), 680 yds, 17.9 YPA, 4 TD (#4 passing target)
*2017 ... 57/98 (57.6%), 730 yds, 12.9 YPA, 8 TD (*extrapolated to 15 games healthy)

I'm sticking with $APY rather than year-to-year to try to keep multi-year contract comparisons more consistent.

BTW - Golden Tate is the Lions #1 passing target with a $APY of only $6.2M. He and Jones together have been earning about the same as Julio Jones by himself. Possibly, another good argument for NOT overpaying one "elite" WR. Both Jones and Tate present decent value for their production relative to the top-paid WRs.

- Jones is 27 and signed thru 2020. He was the #2 behind AJ Green in Cincy for a couple season before signing with DET in 2016.
- Tate (5'10"/200) is 29 and signed thru 2019. He was #1/#2 with Baldwin in SEA during Wilson's first two seasons before signing with DET in 2014.

Circling back around to Cooks, his body of work in the NFL has been significantly superior to that of either Jones or Tate.

 

[supafly]

The fact that you think Brown hasn't produced is hilarious

Where or when did I ever say that? I’ve been a huge supporter of Brown since day one, but many people had been down on him earlier in the year.

I’m speaking of the bigger picture in the context of a full 5 year deal. Don’t be so quick to jump to conclusions and make assumptions. I swear some people just get off on arguing, here.

 

[supafly]

Quasi-interesting factoid ...

After his first 45 regular season games, and a couple months after his 25th birthday, Wilfork had posted 3.5 sacks and 146 total tackles.

After his first 44 regular season games, and about a month before his 24th birthday, Brown has posted 8.5 sacks and 145 total tackles.

Different roles in different schemes, but it's not as if Brown has been a slacker.

I didn’t mean to suggest as much. I was looking at the bigger picture of an entire rookie deal as opposed to a guy like say, Easley who appeared to look alright and didn’t continue progressing.