Does anyone think Brady is hurt

[Bradyking12]

Yep. In another thread when I said it looked to me like he's been a smidgen off since he hurt his achilles, some folks definitely took exception.

Maybe him and the team are a bit fatigued as well 5/6 road games (high altitude back to back denver/mexico, followed by 3 straight divisional games followed by a playoff contender matchup (Steelers) followed by two more divisional games

 

[Ian]

He really had had one bad game and that game happened with Gronk out, cooks taken away and hogan visibly hurting and not being able to get open.
Not getting where you see significant drop off.

The Miami game was bad - very unBrady-like. A healthy Brady doesn't underthrow and overthrow guys that many times and he certainly wasn't playing like that prior to when he first got hurt. He only seemed to have a couple of moments the week before where he was off. In Miami, it was significant.

And I don't disagree with you as far as guys getting open, that, plus Gronk's absence, made it far worse. Also, when I say "drop off", I'm talking in one-week intervals which are generally injury related. And he was erratic enough in that game where something was definitely awry. But he was definitely better Sunday, so hopefully he's improving and he looked like he was moving around much better.

 

[Ring 6]

The Miami game was bad - very unBrady-like. A healthy Brady doesn't underthrow and overthrow guys that many times and he certainly wasn't playing like that prior to when he first got hurt. He only seemed to have a couple of moments the week before where he was off. In Miami, it was significant.

And I don't disagree with you as far as guys getting open, that, plus Gronk's absence, made it far worse. Also, when I say "drop off", I'm talking in one-week intervals which are generally injury related. And he was erratic enough in that game where something was definitely awry. But he was definitely better Sunday, so hopefully he's improving there.

The Miami game was a bad game. But I think you have to take into account Gronk being out, hogan being useless, and not really having anyone to throw to leading to forcing throws he wouldn’t normally make. That said the first int was just a total underthrown very unlike Brady.
My point is there is one bad game (explaining doesn’t excuse) but not a trend.

I posted in another thread that given all of the circumstances Sunday’s game was one of the top 5 performances by a SB in the nfl this season. I don’t repeat all the circumstances but when you consider them it’s really true.

 

[Angelpats]

Yeah he’s hurt. It’s not coincidence when the Achilles was in pain he had a bad game. Before the Steelers game he said he was feeling better so that’s confirmation he wasn’t right during the Miami game. You can see he was improved health wise during the Steelers game and he’ll only get better as time goes on.

 

[Ian]

The Miami game was a bad game. But I think you have to take into account Gronk being out, hogan being useless, and not really having anyone to throw to leading to forcing throws he wouldn’t normally make. That said the first int was just a total underthrown very unlike Brady.
My point is there is one bad game (explaining doesn’t excuse) but not a trend.

I posted in another thread that given all of the circumstances Sunday’s game was one of the top 5 performances by a SB in the nfl this season. I don’t repeat all the circumstances but when you consider them it’s really true.

Again, definitely not a trend. But he badly underthrew Cooks on the interception, which was unusual and the overthrows with guys right in front of him along with underthrowing them from a similar distance goes against a player who is one of the most accurate in football. Tom Curran made a similar observation when he was on WEEI last week and he's relatively in-tune as it pertains to the "Brady camp" and said Brady was "injured-ish", citing the plays I mentioned.

You're right, it was a bad game, but he was clearly hampered and not performing up to the level he would have been if he was fully healthy. Between dealing with that and being surrounded by a limited group, it was a recipe for exactly what happened.

 

[patchick]

100% agree. His drop off has been significant enough where that's seemingly the only logical explanation Although he looked better on Sunday than the week before so hopefully, he's progressing there.

That's exactly how it looks to me, too. But some other posters explained to me that there hasn't really been any dropoff in Brady's play over the past 3 games because: the entire Miami game shouldn't count because it was in Miami, and the dramatic change in TD/INT ratio in the other games shouldn't count because one of the INTs ought to have been called back, and the fact that he's still pretty awesome means there's been no dropoff at all.

It's not an affront to his GOATness to say he looked a little less accurate after being injured. Here's to a continuing trajectory of recovery.

 

[Ian]

That's exactly how it looks to me, too. But some other posters explained to me that there hasn't really been any dropoff in Brady's play over the past 3 games because: the entire Miami game shouldn't count because it was in Miami, and the dramatic change in TD/INT ratio in the other games shouldn't count because one of the INTs ought to have been called back, and the fact that he's still pretty awesome means there's been no dropoff at all.

It's not an affront to his GOATness to say he looked a little less accurate after being injured. Here's to a continuing trajectory of recovery.

It's a situation where you can ignore the numbers but not how he looked. He looked like a guy who was dealing with something, but if he can continue to get healthy and avoid any significant hits between now and the rest of the season, (and if they have the #1 seed, a bye and don't have to travel), that will allow him to at least get extra rest and hopefully be healthier for January.

 

[Deus Irae]

But some other posters explained to me that there hasn't really been any dropoff in Brady's play over the past 3 games

Oddly enough, I don't recall a single person making that claim.

 

[Ian]

Also, to be clear, I'm in the camp of until Brady starts making bad decisions, throwing into double-coverage, missing wide open players or consistently not seeing a defender near a receiver and getting picked, no one can make that claim that he's lost a step or falling off the proverbial "cliff". But I've noticed recently there are already vultures out there, including in the local media, waiting for that shoe to drop. It's a little ridiculous

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

Everybody, on every team, who is a starter, is hurt.

The season starts now.

It's a shame how beat up the Pats are, but...

It's going to take a full on, balls to the wall to get thru the gauntlet ahead.

There are some good teams, with (IMO) healthier personnel.

It's gonna be rough. It can be done.

I like Gilmore, but his sense of urgency has to step up a bit.... Again IMO.
This is what he's always wanted. Go for it. Get the RING!!!!

The O-line... is what it is.

We have a very good chance of saying F ' off to the haters once again. Could you imagine???

Of all the players in the league, TB will play through anything, tougher than anybody.

He is a freaking warrior.!!!

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Even when he's nursing an injury, he'll have an off game but seems to eventually adjust so who knows if the Achilles is still a problem, he looked ok Sunday.

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

Also, to be clear, I'm in the camp of until Brady starts making bad decisions, throwing into double-coverage, missing wide open players or consistently not seeing a defender near a receiver and getting picked, no one can make that claim that he's lost a step or falling off the proverbial "cliff". But I've noticed recently there are already vultures out there, including in the local media, waiting for that shoe to drop. It's a little ridiculous

Yea for the last 5-6+ years.

 

[Deus Irae]

Also, to be clear, I'm in the camp of until Brady starts making bad decisions, throwing into double-coverage, missing wide open players or consistently not seeing a defender near a receiver and getting picked, no one can make that claim that he's lost a step or falling off the proverbial "cliff". But I've noticed recently there are already vultures out there, including in the local media, waiting for that shoe to drop. It's a little ridiculous

Note: The following is all regular season only

This year, to date, Brady has had 2 games with QB ratings under 80
2017: 2
2016: 1
2015: 3
2014: 4
2013: 7
2012: 5
2011: 1
2010: 2

This year, to date, Brady has 1 game with QB ratings under 70
2017: 1
2016: 1
2015: 0
2014: 3
2013: 4
2012: 1
2011: 0
2010: 1

The standout is the Miami game. Brady hadn't been below a 60 QB rating since 2014, and that Miami rating of 59.5 was his worst since his 53.5 game against the Jets in 2013. I didn't post an under 90 list, in the interest of space, but the number there (5) is also within his post-2009 a/k/a injury and recovery norms, though not his best.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

I think this his 4th best year statistically last I looked, hes far from done no matter what Max Kellerman says.

 

[IcyPatriot]

As long as his brain is good and he can stand up he will continue to defy the naysayers.

 

[Ian]

Note: The following is all regular season only

This year, to date, Brady has had 2 games with QB ratings under 80
2017: 2
2016: 1
2015: 3
2014: 4
2013: 7
2012: 5
2011: 1
2010: 2

This year, to date, Brady has 1 game with QB ratings under 70
2017: 1
2016: 1
2015: 0
2014: 3
2013: 4
2012: 1
2011: 0
2010: 1

The standout is the Miami game. Brady hadn't been below a 60 QB rating since 2014, and that Miami rating of 59.5 was his worst since his 53.5 game against the Jets in 2013. I didn't post an under 90 list, in the interest of space, but the number there is also well within his norms, though not his best.

Again, it wasn't the numbers, I'm referring to how he looked that day moving around and throwing the football. It's not a criticism, it's just that he didn't look like himself and he didn't appear to be moving around or getting as much into his throws as he was before he got hurt. I think if he's 100%, they could have won that game despite Gronk being out and Hogan being hurt. After all, it was still close enough where a play here or there could have been the difference.

 

[FCB02062]

Brady may be hurt, probably is "hurting", but he definitely didn't seem as nervous in the pocket Vs Pittsburgh than he did in Miami. Didn't see too many leaning back, back foot passes this Sunday...

 

[Deus Irae]

Again, it wasn't the numbers, I'm referring to how he looked that day moving around and throwing the football. It's not a criticism, it's just that he didn't look like himself and he didn't appear to be moving around or getting as much into his throws as he was before he got hurt. I think if he's 100%, they could have won that game despite Gronk being out and Hogan being hurt. After all, it was still close enough where a play here or there could have been the difference.

But he was moving fine in Buffalo and Pittsburgh. If you want to look for reasons for a perceived decline, you can start with the LG and go from there to WR (and Gronk not playing in Miami).

Remember, the 3 games prior, before Thuney decided to take a few games off, Brady's ratings were

125.4
132.0
114.1

Also remember a couple of big plays going against him that have not been his fault, and are not the typical OPI/Holding type of call backs:

1. Int where a ridiculous PI was ignored in the Buffalo game
2. Cooks stepping out of bounds on that deep strike last week

Those plays happened but, as you've pointed out, we've got to look beyond the numbers. Not only that but, as I've pointed out elsewhere, if you just take away that INT in Buffalo, Brady's rating in that game jumps from 82.4 to 99.4. In other words, if the officials had simply not chosen to go blind on that one play, this thread's not happening, and nobody's talking about any kind of theoretical struggles. They're just saying "Miami, without Gronk".

 

[Ian]

But he was moving fine in Buffalo and Pittsburgh. If you want to look for reasons for a perceived decline, you can start with the LG and go from there to WR (and Gronk not playing in Miami).

Remember, the 3 games prior, before Thuney decided to take a few games off, Brady's ratings were

125.4
132.0
114.1

Also remember a couple of big plays going against him that have not been his fault, and are not the typical OPI/Holding type of call backs:

1. Int where a ridiculous PI was ignored in the Buffalo game
2. Cooks stepping out of bounds on that deep strike last week

Those plays happened but, as you've pointed out, we've got to look beyond the numbers. Not only that but, as I've pointed out elsewhere, if you just take away that INT in Buffalo, Brady's rating in that game jumps from 82.4 to 99.4. In other words, if the officials had simply not chosen to go blind on that one play, this thread's not happening, and nobody's talking about any kind of theoretical struggles.

I agree completely and I don't even count the interceptions, because I judge those based on the context. There's people out there who look at the raw TD/INT ratio and judge based on that. But if Brady underthrows a receiver (who if he gets enough on it would have been a completion and a big play), or the opposing player just makes a great play on the ball, it's hard to put that all on him and criticize him, especially if he's not 100%.

 

[Deus Irae]

I agree completely and I don't even count the interceptions, because I judge those based on the context. There's people out there who look at the raw TD/INT ratio and judge based on that. But if Brady underthrows a receiver (who if he gets enough on it would have been a completion and a big play), or the opposing player just makes a great play on the ball, it's hard to put that all on him and criticize him, especially if he's not 100%.

I hear you, and my guess is that he dinged his hand and had a very mild tweak in his lower leg, and the Patriots have decided to give him a few early days off as a precaution. I just can't make the leap from that to "STUTTERING! STRUGGLING! DECLINE!", when his numbers are still fine but for one blown officiating call, and the team is 2-1 in that stretch of time, with the only loss being just a worse than usual "annual" stinker.

Plus, with regards to the Pitt game, if Cooks just stays in bounds, there's a TD scored with Brady not throwing 2 more incomplete passes on the drive, getting sacked, and the team ending up settling for a field goal. And that changes the whole game, along with any perception that Brady was off in that game.

In essence, Brady is 2 plays out of his control away from people saying pretty much the opposite of "STUTTERING! STRUGGLING! DECLINE!".