Breakout Player of 2017

[patfanken]

Unfortunately I doubt if it will be Mitchell for the exact reason you gave. With Cook on board Mitchell becomes the #4 WR on a team that features 2 TE's. That doesn't bode well for getting the number of targets that will create a "breakout" season.

In fact, given the number of targets the RB's and TE's get in this offense I sometimes wonder if ANY WR is going to put up big individual numbers

To bolster my own arguement , I heard something on one of the mediots podcasts I listen to (Kyed, I think) that bears repeating. Julian Edleman had a team leading 98 catches. The NEXT WR on the list was Hogan with 38......and that is with Gronk missing half the regular season. That gap surprised me.

Now I don't think Edelman will get the same number of targets this season, but the gap highlights the fact that even without Gronk there, WR targets are fairly limited to non-Jew....ish WR's. So with the coming of Cooks, there likely will be fewer still for the rest of the group......barring injury, of course.

 

[maineman209]

To bolster my own arguement , I heard something on one of the mediots podcasts I listen to (Kyed, I think) that bears repeating. Julian Edleman had a team leading 98 catches. The NEXT WR on the list was Hogan with 38......and that is with Gronk missing half the regular season. That gap surprised me.

Now I don't think Edelman will get the same number of targets this season, but the gap highlights the fact that even without Gronk there, WR targets are fairly limited to non-Jew....ish WR's. So with the coming of Cooks, there likely will be fewer still for the rest of the group......barring injury, of course.

If total targets return to Brady's 2011 thru 2015 average of 38/game (total targets were down to about 34/game in 2016), and if a 31-year-old Edelman drops down to a more reasonable 110 or so targets on the season, pretty much everyone else's numbers from 2016 should stay in roughly the same ballpark in 2017, especially considering that Dwayne Allen isn't as prolific a receiver as Bennett was, even if Gronk sees a higher total than last year (by staying healthy).

Still, the top four would likely be Edelman, Cooks, White and Gronk (assuming that Gronk stays healthy for 12+ games). So, there really isn't space for Mitchell to have a "breakout" unless one of the other WRs goes to IR and he can pick up the slack.

 

[mgteich]

If total targets return to Brady's 2011 thru 2015 average of 38/game (total targets were down to about 34/game in 2016), and if a 31-year-old Edelman drops down to a more reasonable 110 or so targets on the season, pretty much everyone else's numbers from 2016 should stay in roughly the same ballpark in 2017, especially considering that Dwayne Allen isn't as prolific a receiver as Bennett was, even if Gronk sees a higher total than last year (by staying healthy).

Still, the top four would likely be Edelman, Cooks, White and Gronk (assuming that Gronk stays healthy for 12+ games). So, there really isn't space for Mitchell to have a "breakout" unless one of the other WRs goes to IR and he can pick up the slack.

I'm not even sure how much Mitchell would be active if everyone else is healthy. Amendola is needed as a returner. Slater is a STer. I would expect that either Hogan or Mitchell would be active. Of course, there could be teams where activate all of our receivers.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

To have a "breakout" year this year you can't have had a great year last year. So right away that excludes the bulk of the team. There is too much competition among the WR's for someone like Mitchell to shine. It's obviously a lot easier for Cyrus Jones to shine compared with how he did last year than pretty much anyone else.

My pick is one of the rookie DE's we drafted. I think by the end of the year one will have emerged as a complement to Flowers off the edge. Edge rushers work best in pairs so there is every incentive to try to bring one or both of them along.

 

[maineman209]

To have a "breakout" year this year you can't have had a great year last year. So right away that excludes the bulk of the team. There is too much competition among the WR's for someone like Mitchell to shine. It's obviously a lot easier for Cyrus Jones to shine compared with how he did last year than pretty much anyone else.

My pick is one of the rookie DE's we drafted. I think by the end of the year one will have emerged as a complement to Flowers off the edge. Edge rushers work best in pairs so there is every incentive to try to bring one or both of them along.

It seems to me that the Pats have four guys who can rush off the edge while being strong against the run - Flowers and Ealy plus Nink and HT (part time) plus Rivers (who may also see some snaps at standup OLB).

Then also now have Guy and Wise who both may be able to play 3-tech/5-tech to improve pressure from the interior against 3-step drops.

All this, plus continued solid coverage behind should lead to the edge guys getting home a little more often.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

All this, plus continued solid coverage behind should lead to the edge guys getting home a little more often.

Exactly - and this adds to the chances of one of the DE's being the breakout guy.

I would think Rivers from the edge is more likely to make a splash than Wise from the interior. Rivers with a bit of extra bulk and a season's worth of extra technique could be quite something.

 

[Brady6]

Mitchell will be the #3 WR on this team. He is better than Hogan.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I think that with a training camp and full off season program, van noy becomes a break out player for us.

 

[mgteich]

Mitchell will be the #3 WR on this team. He is better than Hogan.

So says Brady6.

There is little from last year that suggests that Belichick agrees.

 

[Tuck]

Mitchell will be the #3 WR on this team. He is better than Hogan.

Can't say I agree based on what each guy contributed last year.

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

Agreed that it's most likely a rookie pass rusher who could be the breakout player, as it's one of the few positions in football where this happens from time to time.

If I could wish for a particular breakout player, it would be Jordan Richards. Pats could really benefit from his emergence at SS as Chung is looking like he is starting to wear down. Problem is, Richards might not make it out of training camp - Serious long shot.

 

[Brady6]

So says Brady6.

There is little from last year that suggests that Belichick agrees.

Yeah well except for the fact he started the final 6 games he played in and had 25 catches 306 yards and 4 touchdowns during that time. Aside from that you're correct.

Your flaw remains the same you continue to rely on veteran names to determine value and not do any research on the value of the player.

 

[Brady6]

Can't say I agree based on what each guy contributed last year.

Mitchell had 32 catches and Hogan had 38. Hogan has 5 years of NFL experience and Mitchell was a rookie.

 

[maineman209]

Mitchell had 32 catches and Hogan had 38. Hogan has 5 years of NFL experience and Mitchell was a rookie.

OTOH, both have had exactly one season with Brady in the Pats' system.

And they played different roles in 2016. Hogan's average depth of target was significantly greater than Mitchell's (Mitchel was actually about even with Edelman).

Given how radically different the Pats offensive game plan can be from week-to-week in terms of what receiving roles get targeted (RBs, not including Develin, saw 17 targets in the first game against the Jets last season), I'm not sure that ranking WRs individually as #1, #2, #3 is all that meaningful.

Edelman was "#1" in terms of targets, catches and yards in 2016, but White was #2 and Bennett was #3 (Bennett also led all pass-catchers in TDs and White was second). Those three pass-catchers saw 58% of all pass targets in 2016, while Hogan, Mitchell, Amendola, Gronk and Lewis split another 36% five ways. Technically, that made Hogan the "#2 WR" and Mitchell the "#3" since they were 4th & 5th on the roster in target/catches.

These numbers are bound to change in 2017, especially if Gronk can manage to stay healthy for the majority of the season. But then, the Pats have also replaced Bennett with Allen (a lesser receiving threat) and added another RB who's a demonstrated receiving threat (Burkhead).

Plus, there's Cooks to account for.

It's possible that Mitchell's role changes from 2016 to 2017. He could begin getting more deep targets. OTOH, they already have Hogan performing remarkably well in that role. His 65.5% catch rate at his average target depth is elite by NFL standards and, I'm sure, a surprise to the Bills since they apparently didn't use him at that depth very often.

But, also, Cooks' average target depth in New Orleans comes in between what Hogan's and Mitchell's were last season.

IOW, how many targets Mitchell gets in 2017 - and it seems highly doubtful to me that either he or Hogan ascends into the top three - is way more dependent on what role the Pats need him to play against each specific opponent, and is not at all a reflection of his "talent".

It seems likely to me (depending on the health of several others) that Hogan and Mitchell come in at #4 & #5 (or even #5 & #6) in terms of targets/catches/yards in 2017, although it's possible that Mitchell ends the season with a few more targets than Hogan, depending on the circumstances that evolve in each game.

Perhaps that would make Mitchell, technically, the "#3WR behind Edelman and Cooks. I'm just not certain that it matters all that much.

 

[Tuck]

Mitchell had 32 catches and Hogan had 38. Hogan has 5 years of NFL experience and Mitchell was a rookie.

I'm not into stats but in this case they make my point. Hogan contributed a bit more than Mitchell last year. I agree Mitchell has more upside but I disagree with your point that Mitchell is a better player than Hogan right now. He's not IMO.

 

[patriot1136]

I would vote for E. Roberts. He had a good year but seemed to hit some of the rookie wall last year. He needs to step up. Imagine him and Hightower as a stud LB tandem

 

[maineman209]

I think that with a training camp and full off season program, van noy becomes a break out player for us.

He kinda did have a breakout season in 2016 with the Pats.

In 30 games with the Lions, Van Noy totaled 1 PD, 1 sack and 36 tackles.

In only 7 games with the Pats, Van Noy had 1 INT, 2 PD, 1 FF, 1 sack and 27 tackles.

Extrapolating that out to a full, 16-game season = 2 INT, 4 PD, 2 FF, 2.5 sacks and 62 tackles.

 

[irishfanatic]

My money is on Colt Lyerla.

 

[supafly]

My money is on Colt Lyerla.

How about that dude, huh? Wasn't he serving a really small sentence, like a few months or something? That's absolutely nuts. Now, he'll likely get a few years just for the escape charge alone, depending on the judge's discretion, of course.

 

[irishfanatic]

How about that dude, huh? Wasn't he serving a really small sentence, like a few months or something? That's absolutely nuts. Now, he'll likely get a few years just for the escape charge alone, depending on the judge's discretion, of course.

History shows I guess, that prison and tight ends don't really work out well.