manxman2601
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CLICK HERE to Register for a free account and login for a smoother ad-free experience. It's easy, and only takes a few moments.As we know Pats roster is already loaded. Here a look at current situation with a view on final 53 & possible draft indications (more about that in next posts)
Bolded - locks (by playtime, contract etc.)
Regular - starters/rotational players that could be released (mostly not likely)
Teal - PS eligible
Grey - bubble
Like in OP I added - age (at season start), final contract year, 2017 cap hit
* means ST value
QB - 12Brady (40, 2019, $14), 10Garoppolo (25, 2017; $1.1), 7Brissett (24, 2019, $0.8)
RB - Gillislee (26, 2018, $4), Burkhead* (27, 2017, $3.1), 28White (25, 2020, $1.8), 33Lewis* (26, 2017, $1.5), 27DJ Foster* (23, 2018, $0.5), 38Bolden* (27, 2017, $0.7)
FB - 46Develin* (29, 2018, $1.4), 47G Gronkowski (24, r/fc, $0.5)
WR - Cooks (23, 2018*/opt., $1.5 ), 11Edelman* (31, 2017, $5.2), 15Hogan (28, 2018, $3), 19Mitchell (24, 2019; $0.7), 80Amendola* (31, 2017, $3), 16Lucien (24, r/fc, $0.5)
TE - 87R Gronkowski (28, 2019, $6.7, IR), Allen (27, 2019, $5), 85M Williams (26, 2017, $0.5), 82Lengel (26, 2017, $0.5), Housler (29, r/fc, $0.6)
OL - 77Solder (29, 2017, $11.1), 62Thuney (24, 2019, $0.7), 60Andrews (25, 2017, $0.6), 69Mason (24, 2018; $0.7), 61Cannon (29, 2021; $3.3), 71Fleming (25, 2017, $1.8), 75Karras (24, 2019; $0.6), 68Waddle (26, 2017; $1.1),
65Douglas (25, r/fc, $0.5), 66Farris (24, r/fc, $0.5), 64Barker (27, r/fc, $0.5)
DT - 97Branch (32, 2018, $3.7), 90Brown (23, 2018, $2), 99Valentine (23, 2019, $0.7), Guy (27, 2020, $2.6), 74Hamilton (24, r/fc, $0.5), 96Kilgo (25, r/fc, $0.6)
DE - 98Flowers (24, 2018, $0.7), Ealy (25, 2017, $0.9) 50Ninkovich (33, 2017, $2.5), 92Grissom* (25, 2018; $0.6)
LB - 54Hightower (27, 2020, $7.5), 53Van Noy* (26, 2017, $1.1), 58McClellin* (28, 2018, $3.3), 52E Roberts* (23, 2019; $0.6), 55Freeny (28, 2018; $1.7, IR), 44Bates (24, r/fc, $0.5)
CB - Gilmore (26, 2021, $8.5), 21Butler (27, 2017, $3.9), 25Rowe* (24, 2018; $0.9), 24Cy Jones* (24, 2019; $0.9), 31J Jones* (23, 2018; $0.6), 22Coleman (24, 2017, $0.6)
S - 32McCourty (30, 2019, $11), 23Chung (30, 2018, $4.5), 30Harmon (26, 2020, $3.5), 37Richards* (24, 2018, $1), 43Ebner* (28, 2017, $1.2), 36King* (24, 2017, $0.6)
ST - 3Gostkowski (33, 2018, $4.5), 6Allen (27, 2018, $1.9), 49Cardona (25, 2018; $0.7), 18Slater (31, 2017; $1.6)
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65 . players on the roster
c.40 . locks + another 10 likely to make the roster
Looking at this suddenly 6 picks seem like a lot in the sense that it is very likely some of them will have to be exposed to waivers..
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Ok, some thoughts on the draft w a view on this roster breakdown:
OFFENSE
@QB - 3
While anything can happen Im trusting my feeling, Lombardi, Schefter and mostly BB that this is set. Carrying 3 QBs is a lot considering the depth of the roster but its a small price to pay to be in the February game again.
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@RB+FB - 4+1
Gill, Rex & White are locks. Develin as well, thankfully no need to explain it on this board.
The last spot seems to be between Lewis and Foster. If Lewis is released or traded the savings are 1.3M and 200.000 cap hit.
Bolden has an outside chance this year IMO. Plenty of good ST options. Barring injury of Gill or Rex in preseason Bolden's spot is likely on a “hidden roster“.
FA: They might bring another veteran just in case. Some good backup options should be available for vet min in May (Charles, Asiata, Hillman, Chris Johnson..)
Draft implications: drafting a RB makes little to no sense; i dont see a day 3 rookie that could break the roster so a pick would likely be waisted on PS at best. Since its a deep RB class Id like to take a RB or two on Day 4.
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@ WR - 5 + 1 (Slater)
Loaded. Poor Lucien looks at another PS year.
(BTW - strange things happening with who appears and disappears on different Pats rosters. Now its gone again)
FA: Some signing like Washington last year possible. Maybe some vet like Stevie Johnson. Some intriguing names still out there. Streater on the street again..
Draft implications: With Edelman and Amendola in contract years (and over 30) a slot receiver would still be a good idea. Since there looks to be no space on the roster (unless they go 6+1 which would seem excessive esp. w 3QBs already and 2TE option) a lower rounder/UDFAs could be the way. Pats had plenty of contacts with exactly those kind of WR prospects..
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@TE - 3
Last year they went with 4 TEs and no one on PS (two snatched away from waivers IIRC). Then cut one, traded the other. If Gronk is ready for TC I think the'll go with 3 this year and one or two on PS (if they can smuggle them)
Gronk and Allen are locks. Third spot (and PS) wide open.
FA: Nothing much on the market left. Tamme (conn to SF), Donnell, Harbor, Tim Wright..
Draft implications: Good class as we know. Possible mid rounder (Kittle, Leggett, Butt, Hodges). I wonder what they really think of Shaheen. Plenty of options in all rounds including UDFA. I think they'd try to take at least 1-2 undrafted along w 1 pick.
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@OT - 4
Solder is a big Q but considering all - they play him this season and possibly let him go as UFA for high comp pick. No extension rumours. Can't FT him. He's gonna be expensive as hell on this OL market plus he wasn't as solid as before injury (f.e. look at last SBLI two-point conversion where he almost blew a play). He was outplayed by Cannon by some margin. Acc. to Lombardi no big difference between LT and RT in todays NFL. Fleming looked solid when he came in for him.
Waddle's contract situation: — 850.00 (savings) // 275.000 (dead cap).
FA: Not much out there.
Draft implications: Perfect moment to draft developmental OT. Not the best class. Thankfully we still have Dante. I wouldn't be surprised if OT gets drafted at any spot, even #72 or trade up (Ramczyk/Bolles if by chance one falls, Garcia, Moton). UDFA also a possibility since there might not be a big difference between currently projected mid rounder (Davenport, R Johnson, Wheeler, Bisnowaty, Holden, Eleumunor etc) and projected UDFAs.. (Norton, Tevi, Seaton, Rich, Eide, Ugokwe..)
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@IOL - 4-5
Seems set at starting positions. Lot's of love reported for Karras. But losing Tre might open a spot here despite loaded PS.
FA: Some vet options still out there. Brought Fusco for visit yesterday. Mangold of course . depending on implications to Anderson who they obviously love despite shortcomings.
Draft implications: Drafting a versatile IOL is certainly an option even if they go for OT. Lots of mid to late round contacts: Asiata, Gennesy, Eluemunor, Fuller, Morgan.. I wonder if they'd jump on opportunity for higher ranked guys like Elflein, Pocic, Dawkins, D Johnson; I wouldn't mind that - if nothing else to make our Captain happy..
DEFENSE - part 1
@dt - 4-5
Pretty much set. Hamilton and Kilgo both started in NFL already so tough road for any new signing. Hamilton's improvement from preseason to regular season was uncanny. They paid Kilgo 53 money, probably for a reason.
FA: Lots of options out there but little need. Maybe one more vet for camp just to keep things honest.
Draft implications: Im sure they love Tomlinson that could be at #72 but seems like wrong timing. Wormley would be great as well. They did have lots of contacts with mid to lower rounders or udfas - as great Manx recap shows - 2017 Patriots Draft Contacts Thread - so they will probably bring at least one DT rookie in. A pick could be wasted, maybe better wait for Day 4.
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@edge - 4-5
All was said about this position. May be the only need although BB might disagree. But even if you count Van Noy and McClellin in the aging Ninko needs successor . and what better time than when he is still around. 4 man rotation of strong edge guys was key last year though and despite Guy's DE versatility (on certain downs I guess) I see 2 spots clearly open here (no disrespect Geneo).
FA: Some interesting vet options still out there (Ayers, Walden, Dumervil, Devin Taylor). But Id guess this position will be mostly about draft.
Draft implications: Most discussed position on this board so no need here. Id expect at least 3 rookies to be brought in TC.
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@LB - 5-6
With Hightower back hard to say a need but the position still seems somewhat open. Definitely space to compete. Id say Van Noy, Roberts and McClellin are near locks. Roberts showed great situational value and if he could improve in coverage he would be a perfect lock. To me he and his heart are on 53 in any case. Looking at Van Noy's SBLI snap count alone he's a lock. His contract (1.1M savings, 0 dead cap) keeps things open. It will be his first full season with Pats. He plugged in very good, even wearing green dot with High out. Id be surprised if he's gone. McClellin has two things going for him: 1) contract (1.5M savings / 1.6M dead cap); 2) coaches like him more than fans. Similar could be said about Freeny (0.9M savings / 0.8M dead cap). There's also Trevor Bates, praised (and raised his salary) on PS. I have a feeling he could be great ST replacement for Mingo and a solid backup on D. So not necessarily much space here either. Still - at least its somewhat opened for competition so I expect some new blood. What I think this unit misses most is speed, esp. lateral speed and agility in coverage so I hope they add a few quick guys.
FA: Dan Skuta visiting. They were after Worrilow in FA so Id guess - depending on the draft - they'd go back at it after May 10 deadline (all become street FA). Still some solid players out there like Kendricks (PHI trading him), Levy (inj concern), Josh Martin (ST)
Draft implications: Lots of contacts, lots of options that we discussed already. If McMillan falls in Pats range that could answer many Qs. Possibly Anzalone but he is rising. Langi of course in mid rounds etc. Id expect 2-3 LB rookies to join the summer party and no more than 1 pick.
So, it seems to me that using picks on a high-end LB who could become a Van Noy-level starter in in 2018, and a lower-grade DE (or two) who could become a rotational player in 2018 might have more overall benefit than going for one high-end DE and lower-grade LBs.
Tremendous thread
I don't understand the Andrew Hawkins signing. He's just a tiny JAG who doesn't offer anything more than what we already had here. And why Bill dumped Devin Street to make room instead of the useless, never-will-be DeAndrew White is a complete mystery.
Bill also screwed-up by allowing Buffalo to sign LB Gerald Hodges, exactly as he screwed-up by allowing them to sign Zach Brown last year (while he signs Shea McClellin for almost 3 times the amount with 1/3 the production). Hodges would've been the best LB here not named Hightower.
I actually “projected“ (above) one more vet WR signing similar to Nate Washington last year (and had Hawkins on my short list - no pun intended!). It's reportedly for 1yr . I guess its vet signing w little to no guarantees. They like him, he was available, no risks or significant cap hit, he desperately wanted to come (turning down better deals acc. to him) - why not? He has experience, production, quickness&speed, fits Pats O.
He is actually a great signing for TC in view of Pats numerous young DB corps . good vet depth if injuries strike . and if he by any chance outplays any of the 5 “locks“ Pats will get some cap credit.
(don't get me wrong Jules is my favourite and I love Danny so I do hope they are there for the season)
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Bringing back D White is not such a mystery . since BB was pretty outspoken in his praise of him and gave him a raise on PS.