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Building 2017 roster

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by long distance, Jan 16, 2017.

  1. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I made this list of roster status after 2016 season. Maybe this can help better envisioning roster needs going forward.
    I added age (at start of 2017 season) last contract year & cap hit - for bigger picture.
    Players are listed according to depth chart (more or less).
    I hope this offers a good overview and helps the discussions re FA, Trade, Draft..
    (hope there are not too many mistakes)
    _

    Under contract for 2017 - (39)
    Re-signings (+tenders, futures) - (18)
    New signings - (7)
    E/RFA tender - not yet signed - (2)
    UFA - (3)
    _

    * means ST player or ST value
    ------------------

    QB - Brady (40, 2019; $14), Garoppolo (25, 2017; $1.1), Brissett (24, 2019; $0.8)

    RB - Gillislee (26, 2018, $4), Burkhead* (27, 2017, $3.1), White (25, 2020; $1.8), Lewis* (26, 2017; $1.5), Bolden* (27, 2017, $0.7), DJ Foster* (23, 2017; $0.5), Blount (30, --)

    FB - Develin* (29, 2018, $1.4), G Gronkowski (24, r/fc, $0.5)

    WR - Edelman* (31, 2017; $5.2), Cooks (23, 2018*, $1.5), Hogan (28, 2018; $3), Mitchell (24, 2019; $0.7), Amendola* (31, 2017; $3), Lucien (24, r/fc; $0.5), Floyd (27, --)
    /*2018 option for Cooks - 8.5M/

    TE - R Gronkowski (28, 2019; $6.7), Allen (27, 2019, $5), M Williams (26, 2017, $0.5), Lengel (26, 2017, $0.5), Housler (29, r/fc, $0.6), Scruggs* (27, --)

    OL - Solder (29, 2017; $11.1), Thuney (24, 2019; $0.7), Andrews (25, 2017; $0.6), Mason (24, 2018; $0.7), Cannon (29, 2021; $3.3), Fleming (25, 2017, $1.8), Karras (24, 2019; $0.6), Waddle (26, 2017; $1.1), Barker (27, r/fc; $0.5), Douglas (25, r/fc; $0.5), Farris (24, r/fc; $0.5)


    DT - Branch (32, 2018, $3.7), Brown (23, 2018; $2), Valentine (23, 2019; $0.7), Guy (27, 2020, $2.6), Hamilton (24, r/fc; $0.5), Kilgo (25, r/fc; $0.6)

    DE - Flowers (24, 2018; $0.7), Ealy (25, 2017, $0.9), Ninkovich (33, 2017; $2.5), Grissom* (25, 2018; $0.6)

    LB - Hightower (27, 2020, $5), Van Noy* (26, 2017; $1.1), McClellin* (28, 2018; $3.3), E Roberts* (23, 2019; $0.6), Freeny* (28, 2018; $1.7), Bates* (24, r/fc; $0.5)

    CB - Gilmore (26, 2021, $8.6), Butler (27, 1rd tender, $3.9), Rowe* (24, 2018; $0.9), Cy Jones* (24, 2019; $0.9), J Jones* (23, 2018; $0.5), Coleman (24, 2017, $0.6)

    S - McCourty* (30, 2019; $11), Chung* (30, 2018; $4.5), Harmon* (26, 2020, $3.5), Richards* (24, 2018; $1), Ebner* (28, 2017; $1.2), King* (24, 2017, $0.6)

    ST - Gostkowski (33, 2018; $4.5), Allen (27, 2018; $1.9), Cardona (25, 2018; $0.7), Slater (31, 2017; $1.6)
    ____________
    Players signed: 65

    LAST UPDATED: 4/27
     
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    Last edited: Apr 27, 2017
  2. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Very nice! Based on this breakdown, I updated my list to show Ninkvich under contract. That helps but I still see DT, LB, DE and CB as the biggest needs.

    100 day plan
    • Trade Jimmy G. for a 2nd this year and a 1st next year
    • Draft looks deep at DE, CB, look for 2 or more picks in rounds 1-3 for these units
    • Expect Hightower to be signed which steadies the LB unit
    • Look at free agency to bring in a veteran DT (Poe, Abry Jones, Branch, Brandon Williams)
    • Build depth in all other areas
    • Hope that Gronk comes back healthy


     
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    Last edited: Jan 18, 2017
  3. captain stone

    captain stone Pro Bowl Player

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    It is the only position group besides QB & STs in which there are no UFAs, but
    there remains a clear need to acquire a starting-caliber LT as both a legitimate
    back-up to Solder and as a Swing Tackle of better quality than LaAdrian Waddle.
    The Pats appear to have lucked-out regarding Solder's health this season, though they had a chance to see - at no cost but a waiver claim - what rookie OT Willie Beavers could have provided when Minnesota exposed him to waivers during final cut-downs. I hope they don't wait until final cut-downs next season before addressing the LT position.
     
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  4. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Fortunately this is a deep defensive draft.

    I could easily see bb going dt, lb and CB with our first three picks.
     
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  5. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The man has spoken, Miguel's look at free agency... he is as conflicted as we are...

    Looking at the New England Patriots 2017 free agents – UFAs

    Good read, also don't forget to donate to the Food Bank he supports. Some Pats fans have more to worry about than a short shuttle time. $10 helps.

    Link to Donate:
    Donate

    "
    Summarizing my Predictions:
    Greg Scruggs – Re-signed
    Mingo – Re-signed
    James Develin – Re-signed
    LeGarrette Blount – Signs elsewhere
    Brandon Bolden – Re-signed
    Michael Floyd – Re-signed after legal issues have been resolved
    Duron Harmon – Signs elsewhere
    Logan Ryan – Signs elsewhere
    Chris Long – Either retires or re-signs
    Alan Branch – Either retires or re-signs
    Martellus Bennett – On odd-numbered days, I think that Martellus will be re-signed. On even-numbered days I think that he will leave.
    Jabaal Sheard – Signs elsewhere
    Dont’a Hightower – Tagged and then signed to a five-year deal right before the July 15 deadline.


    9 of the 13 UFAs are re-signed for a total cap cost in March 2017 at around $31 million. Subtract 3 million from the total if Alan Branch retires. Subtract $2.5 million if Chris Long retires
    ."
     
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  6. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    From your mouth...
     
  7. captain stone

    captain stone Pro Bowl Player

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    Let's just hope that Bill doesn't draft a CB in the 2nd round, again.
     
  8. meatface

    meatface Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    im interested to see if Vollmer will be brought back to see if he can do a reserve role, I have a feeling that his injury issues will prevent him from playing in any capacity but Seabass would be better than LaAdrian Waddle.
     
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  9. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    If that's the new going price for LB, I'm not sure we can retain Hightower. I'd take Beckwith in the 3rd with the Jamie Collins pick. He only falls due to injury, anyway. He's a 1st/2nd rounder whose game is essentially a discount version of Hightower's. I don't think he's quite as good, but he could still be very serviceable.
     
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  10. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I agree 100%. Beckwith had some monster games this year and last in the sec, including against Alabama. Seems instinctive. Decent tackler, average in coverage.

    I also like Anderson of Alabama. He played de/olb but was recruited as a mlb.

    These two would give us speed, tackling, pass rush and some coverage.
     
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  11. MSPatsFan28

    MSPatsFan28 On the Roster

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    Seabass is under contract for 2017. Per the CBA, any player who starts and ends the season on PUP list has their contract toll to the following season.
     
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  12. meatface

    meatface Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I just assume he will be either cut or restructured
     
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  13. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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  14. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Let me add this great overview of roster structure across the league.
    For the purposes of this thread it can be helpful to understand what kind of deals and FA's the Pats will be signing.

    upload_2017-1-25_2-47-36.png

    *

    In 2016 Pats have only 2 players in the 10+ category - Brady and Solder. Thats about the league average. This clearly shows that the expectations from March that they can/will sign all their top FAs (Collins, Hightower, CJ, Sheard) due to their healthy 2017 cap situation were missing the point.

    So let's see where Pats stand currently regarding 2017 roster.

    10+ ..... 3 ..... (Brady, Solder, McCourty)
    5-10 .... 3 ..... (Amendola, Gronk, Edelman)
    1-5 ..... 17
    < 1 ..... 31 ..... (assuming they will sign all PS and ERFA)

    If we look at the table we can see there is a big drop in 5-10 category and that's simply because some key FAs belonged there in 2016 (Hightower, Sheard, Bennett) and some have lower hits in 2017 (Cannon, Hogan), while D-Mac moved into 10+ cat.
    If we remove Amendola who will need to restructure to stay .. we see there is a lot of space there to fill.

    Just for reference: in 2015 Pats had only 1 player in 10+ cat. (Brady), 4 in 5-10 and 20 in 1-5. So:

    in 2016: 2-8-20
    in 2015: 1-4-20
    in 2014: 3-2-17
    in 2013: 3-1-16

    Note that Salary Cap is increasing by some 10% each year.
    Also: this shows BB went a little stronger for 5-10M players this year probably to compensate 1st round pick guy that was stolen + injustice possibly sparked some extra motivation..

    Pats don't have any 15+ or 20+ contracts thanks to Brady's constant restructures and home discount. That potentially opens up another “spot“ in the 10+ cat.

    Looking at league average, Pats past records and Salary cap increase we can envision that 2017 Pats will have the following structure (currently signed in brackets):

    10 + = 3-4 ...... (3)
    5-10 = 6-8 ...... (2 - assuming Amendola restructures/is cut)
    1 -5 = 20-22 ... (18 - =)

    Signing Hightower doesn't necessarily means he goes into 10+ cat. for 2017 (in Miguel's proposal it goes to 8.7M the first year and then jumps over 10) but it will go close enough. Franchise tag that is an option is over 14M of course.

    So to think that Pats will sign Hightower and add Ryan (if true that his market value will be over 10M which might not be true due to deep CB FA market) and then another top contract FA like Short, Poe, Ingram, Campbell .. is simply not realistic.

    Instead I would imagine they sign Hightower as the only top contract (10+ or close to that), tender Butler of course for 4M and then sign 4-6 players in the 5-10M range. Are this going to be mostly home FAs (Bennett, Sheard, Harmon, Ryan (if his market value is indeed lower than some project) or others remains to be seen. I believe it depends also on investment by position .. something that Patriots reportedly care about very much.

    For a quick look at current position investment you can look at the updated list of players in OP.

    It will be interesting to see how they go about it this year f.e. at S position where they already have close to 20M invested which would mean no space for Harmon but they might see it differently since he is such a key piece for their D schemes with no real “next man up“ on the FS horizon..




    _________
    (here a full article containing the table: Proving the Patriots pay the middle class of the NFL)
     
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    Last edited: Jan 25, 2017
  15. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Full break down. Pats start at 61M in cap space

    Our own guys

    Sign Branch 3M
    Sign Bennett 7M
    Sign Hightower 12M
    Sign Butler 11M
    Sign Ryan 8M
    Sign Develin 1M
    Sign Long 2M
    Sign Blount 1M

    Restructure Amendola saves 5M

    Harmon/Sheard/ walk

    After these moves the Pats have22M left 10 of which we save for rainy day, emergency, draft picks, odds and ends

    Other guys

    Calais Campbell - DE - 6M

    I didn't have the Pats signing Ryan for a long time cause young CBs are coming up and how much are you going to spend on your back end? Then I got really thinking about it. Ryan is very consistent even with his inconsistency. He is not always on his game but when he is he takes your D to another level and he never seems to miss a game and plays BB's style perfectly. If the idea will continue to be (which i suspect it) to limit YAC and don't give up any big plays Ryan a guy you want. A sure tackler and always on the field. Also though he gets hot and cold you know he will get hot again and usually in time for the playoffs. Also at 25 the odds only increase of him becoming a bit more consistent. So I am okay with the over pay for 8M to keep him and keep our DBs mostly in tact for years to come. Harmon walks but we keep McCourty/Chung/Butler/Ryan/Rowe and build around it. I think that is the way to go and we know BB loves his Rutgers guys.

    Draft - Trade JAG and get a first this year and other capital.

    #1A - Taco Carlton - DE - You need help with your aging DEs and now with your DBs set you need to inject talent into the front 7.

    #1B - Demarus Walker - DE - Back to back DEs for BB? Never! Well lets think about it. Sheard is gone, Nink maybe has 1-2 years left and is not what he use to be. Long is not long for this team. Only Flowers will be here long term. It is a very very rare first round double dip. Bill likes his DBs and has spent a lot of money on them in my off season mock. He knows he needs help on the front 7 and DE is where the talent and need is. Imagine a 3some of Flowers/Cartlon/Walker for years to come with our pretty good DB play. Also he knows he will need to face good QBs this year.

    #2 Anthony Walker - ILB - The Pats need someone dependable at LB besides Hightower. Walker right now is underrated IMO. He will rise once he start to drop a little more weight and train for the combine (Laziness was not the reason he got bigger he just wanted to find his correct playing weight).

    #3 Chidobe Awuzie - CB - Was a finalist in the weirdest name catagory :p Seriously though this guy is going under the radar and it is not fair. Watch his highlight tape.
    He is a bigger CB who looks at the same time like a smaller more agile guy in how he moves the the next play is laying the wood like a 220LB strong safety. At 6-0 and 205 he can be the bigger outside guy for years to come. You need 3 CBs and I don't think Rowe is the long term guy. Also if they don't replace Harmon (and i don't think they can) we will see more CBs on the field. This guy is now a huge binky of mine.

    #3comp - Jake Butt - TE - I don't know what the plans for TE in the future are but I know we need a back up plan. Stash him. We can afford to use a pick for this guy.

    Final roster

    Offense 24

    QB - 3 Brady Brissett ???
    TE - 3 Gronk Bennett ??? (Butt on IR)
    WR - 4 Edelman Hogan Mitchell Amendola (Floyd gone unless he is super cheap)
    RB/FB - 5 Blount(maybe) White Lewis Develin Bolden
    OL - 9 Solder Mason Andrews Thuney Cannon Karras Jackson Flemming ???

    Defense 25

    DE - 6 Flowers Nink Walker Carlton Long Grissom
    DT - 4 Branch Brown Valentine ???
    LB - 5 Hightower McClellin Van-Noy Walker Roberts
    CB - 6 Butler Ryan Rowe Awuzie Jones Jones
    S - 4 - McCourty Chung Richards Ebner


    STs 4 - Gost Allen Cardona Slater
     
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    Last edited: Jan 26, 2017
  16. Keyser Söze

    Keyser Söze In the Starting Line-Up

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    If Marty wants too much $. Let him walk and get Howard. He'd be a beast with Gronk.
     
  17. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I do see us signing butler, Blount, and Hightower,

    If bb misses out on drafting fb Freddie if Florida state, then I can see him bringing back develin also.

    I would be very surprised to see taco at #32, but either taco, harris or walker will fall to us,

    Do any of them tempt bb? I think be traded #32.
     
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  18. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    EDIT: OP updated
     
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    Last edited: Feb 7, 2017
  19. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    And we can expect more of the same..

     
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  20. luuked

    luuked Pro Bowl Player

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    Late to the show but I don't see how our secondary can continue playing similarly well if we don't replace Harmon properly. Until proven wrong during the preseason I will not assume anything about a second year jump by Richards. Ebner is more of an emergency option if Chung gets injured than a true safety. That's the biggest hole that I see next to a better coverage LB.
     
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