Building 2017 roster

[VJCPatriot]

1. Top priority resign - Hightower.

2. Keeping:

It would be quite nice to resign Branch and Bennett.
Otherwise we will need to draft a DT and a TE. Can no longer depend on Gronk staying healthy.

It would be really nice to extend Butler now. But he's an RFA so we might wait until next season to do his long term deal.

If Chris Long doesn't retire I'd like him to be retained on a 2-year deal.

Develin is a fullback sooo... if he wants to stay on reasonably cheap dollars, that's fine but we're not breaking the bank for that position.

3. Leaving:

Ryan is gonna get PAID. CBs get paid a lot. So I doubt he's coming back.

Blount might want to get PAID. He had a pretty good season, so we might have to again dip into the draft for a bellcow RB. The good news is you can find good ones in the 3rd/4th round.

Sheard has slipped and Flowers has blossomed. So I see Sheard as leaving in FA

I would like to bring Duron Harmon back as he's a good contributor, but he might get paid big money elsewhere just because he's a good safety from a superbowl winning team. And safety play in the league on average is pretty bad.

Jimmy G - we are most likely shipping him out for draft picks. I don't think he's going to have the patience to wait 3 more years behind Brady. He looks ready to start for somebody. I hope we get at least a nice 1st rounder plus another pick for him.

4. Drafting:

OL, DT, TE, CB, S, RB.

It really depends on who falls to us and who leaves. But I would prioritize the linemen. A big strong and skilled dude to protect Brady. And another big strong dude to hold ground and stop the run. It wouldn't hurt to add more pass-rush as well. Flowers was excellent, but you need more than 1 rusher.

Just my take.

Full break down. Pats start at 61M in cap space

Our own guys

Sign Branch 3M
Sign Bennett 7M
Sign Hightower 12M
Sign Butler 11M
Sign Ryan 8M
Sign Develin 1M
Sign Long 2M
Sign Blount 1M

Restructure Amendola saves 5M

 

[BobDigital]

Late to the show but I don't see how our secondary can continue playing similarly well if we don't replace Harmon properly. Until proven wrong during the preseason I will not assume anything about a second year jump by Richards. Ebner is more of an emergency option if Chung gets injured than a true safety. That's the biggest hole that I see next to a better coverage LB.

Harmon depends on price. He only plays about half the snaps on D so that has to be kept in mind. I have some FS prospects in mind to replace him with if the numbers don't work out. It would leave a hole on D if he left but I think they could work around it if they keep Ryan and draft a guy.

At this point though my main goal would be keep the D together that held Atlanta to 21 points and fix the LB #2 spot and get Flowers a better running mate.

Branch will be back for the same money or so as last year so that solves that. Butler/Hightower will be on the team next year for sure. That only leaves Ryan/Harmon as key pieces to work out. Sheard/Long can be replaced easily but I'd like to keep Long just cause i like the vet presence and think his deal will be fair.

If Ryan walks you leave a big question mark on your otherwise SB ready team on a near every down spot. So I am inclined to pay him. If Harmon plays ball pay him too. I'd go 7-9M for Ryan and 2-4M for Harmon.

 

[luuked]

Harmon depends on price. He only plays about half the snaps on D so that has to be kept in mind. I have some FS prospects in mind to replace him with if the numbers don't work out. It would leave a hole on D if he left but I think they could work around it if they keep Ryan and draft a guy.

At this point though my main goal would be keep the D together that held Atlanta to 21 points and fix the LB #2 spot and get Flowers a better running mate.

Branch will be back for the same money or so as last year so that solves that. Butler/Hightower will be on the team next year for sure. That only leaves Ryan/Harmon as key pieces to work out. Sheard/Long can be replaced easily but I'd like to keep Long just cause i like the vet presence and think his deal will be fair.

If Ryan walks you leave a big question mark on your otherwise SB ready team on a near every down spot. So I am inclined to pay him. If Harmon plays ball pay him too. I'd go 7-9M for Ryan and 2-4M for Harmon.

He plays maybe only half of the snaps but having him around provides a ****ton of flexibility for our coaching staff to get creative with coverages. It's one of those things where the snap count doesn't give the full picture of his impact. He also benefits from playing next to DMac and I think he is aware enough to realize that. So maybe there is a chance to get him for a reasonable price.

Apart from that I agree with most of your goals. If we can keep that defense together as it is and surgically add a few pieces to get rid of key weaknesses (Hello coverage LB) we should have another year of very good D play ahead of us. I think the big three FA for us are HT, Ryan and Harmon in this order. Branch also falls into this category but I don't see anyone swooping in to offer a contract big enough to make him go somewhere less successful - so I assume him to be a lock.

If Long doesn't want to retire I'd keep him as well because from all the interviews he has given he seems to "get it" and is the ideal veteran to guide younger players.

Not much disagreement here with anything..

 

[zimmy]

Given the number of free agents there could be some serious re-tooling of the D needed. Luckily, the O looks in decent shape bar some TE depth, a big boundary WR (Floyd most likely) and a RB to potentially replace Blount.


Ryan is going to get a $10m a year deal somewhere, which is probably too rich for us given we will have to give Butler a $12m a year deal. Two huge CB deals seems unlike us, which is a shame as I really like Ryan. If Ryan leaves, CB becomes a big need, even if Cyrus Jones takes a second year leap.

Similar with Harmon. One of these BB tree teams, like Detroit or Tennessee will offer him $6-8m a year. again, probably too rich for us. However, the 3rd safety is almost a starter in our team so I wouldn't completely rule it out. We have given out some larger contracts then expected before - Leigh Bodden, Kyle Arrington etc. However if Harmon leaves, safety becomes a big need as Richards has shown nothing.

I also don't think its a complete given that we resign Hightower. It depends what he is looking for. If he wants more than Collins, I think doing a deal might be tough. $13m+ a year is a lot of dough for a guy who can't stay healthy. We don't want him going down the Mayo route. Franchising him would see him playing for $15-16m. That seems more than BB might have him rated at. I could see a tag and trade scenario if negotiations go nowhere. Even if we sign High long term I think we still need a 3 down cover linebacker with a bit more speed.

You have got to think that we are slightly apart with valuations as by all accounts we offered some deals to players mid season and only Cannon bit. The only caveat is that we have $60m in cap room and have to spend it on someone.

My estimates of what people will get on the open market:

Ryan: 4 years $42m, $20 guaranteed
Harmon 4 years $32m $15m guaranteed
Hightower: 5 years $65m $28m guaranteed
Sheard: 4 years $31m $14m guaranteed
Bennett: 3 years $21m $10m guaranteed

In the draft I think we could hit every level of the D. A CB/S, LB and DE in the first 3 rounds. That extra first for Jimmy might be needed.

 

[luuked]

Similar with Harmon. One of these BB tree teams, like Detroit or Tennessee will offer him $6-8m a year. again, probably too rich for us.

I don't think it will be quite that much but I agree that the "tree teams" are the biggest concern in terms of him returning here. Especially Detroit I can see being pretty interested.

Giardi said that Harmon might be one of those players that is aware how much he gains by being next to DMac and in this role so he might give a discount to stay. Fingers crossed.

 

[manxman2601]

Chris Long isn't retiring. Wouldn't surprise if he comes back on a deal that is cheap enough that if they want to cut him pre-season, they can.

 

[luuked]

Chris Long isn't retiring. Wouldn't surprise if he comes back on a deal that is cheap enough that if they want to cut him pre-season, they can.

Honestly, I don't see anyone blowing the roof of with offers after the year he had. Yes, he had a ****ton of pressures and that was pretty important for us but sacks are the currency that make it rain in FA.

If he is comfortable with being a third down pass rushers and all that grind for one more season at about the same rate then it's really a no brainer.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Honestly, I don't see anyone blowing the roof of with offers after the year he had. Yes, he had a ****ton of pressures and that was pretty important for us but sacks are the currency that make it rain in FA.

If he is comfortable with being a third down pass rushers and all that grind for one more season at about the same rate then it's really a no brainer.

Agreed. He said he would play for the Pats for $5. No harm in resigning him for cheap and seeing what he can do in camp, and hoping he can perform like he did this year. In limited snaps as a rotational guy, he was fine.

 

[BobDigital]

This will be my first FA plan assuming Hightower leaves

Full break down. Pats start at 61M in cap space

Our own guys

Sign Branch 4M
Sign Butler 12M
Sign Ryan 7M - This would make him the 25th highest paid CB in the NFL. I think he takes that money as it actually is CB #1 money going by that.
Sign Develin 1M
Sign Long 2.5M
Sign Blount 1M
Sign Floyd 3.5M

Restructure Amendola saves 5M

Harmon/Sheard also walk.

After these guys are signed we have 35M to spend.

Zach Brown - ILB - 7.5M per yr/2 years. He probably wants fairly short term to get the big deal next but would like to be paid something now and have security in his life. Also 7.5M/yr makes him the 8th highest paid ILB so unlikely to turn his nose up at such an offer considering he doesn't have a long history of being very good.

Calais Campbell - DE/DT - 7.5M yr/2 years. No point going over this guy again. Just a good player and fit.

They still have 20M to spend after this and I am not sure what they do. I assume 10 is for draft and emergency fund though but that leaves 10 left over.

 

[luuked]

This will be my first FA plan assuming Hightower leaves

Full break down. Pats start at 61M in cap space

Our own guys

Sign Branch 4M
Sign Butler 12M
Sign Ryan 7M - This would make him the 25th highest paid CB in the NFL. I think he takes that money as it actually is CB #1 money going by that.
Sign Develin 1M
Sign Long 2.5M
Sign Blount 1M
Sign Floyd 3.5M

Restructure Amendola saves 5M

Harmon/Sheard also walk.

After these guys are signed we have 35M to spend.

Zach Brown - ILB - 7.5M per yr/2 years. He probably wants fairly short term to get the big deal next but would like to be paid something now and have security in his life. Also 7.5M/yr makes him the 8th highest paid ILB so unlikely to turn his nose up at such an offer considering he doesn't have a long history of being very good.

Calais Campbell - DE/DT - 7.5M yr/2 years. No point going over this guy again. Just a good player and fit.

They still have 20M to spend after this and I am not sure what they do. I assume 10 is for draft and emergency fund though but that leaves 10 left over.

I like it.

I am just curious if you think Harmon will get an unreasonably high offer or why you are letting him walk. Seems to me that spending 2m-4m to fortify a position seems like a good investment. At this point I honestly am wondering if I am just overrating Harmon because most people have him moving on.

On a similar note I don't think 7m will do it with Ryan. The reason for that is highly speculative but ever since someone leaked that the Pats offered Collins to the Texans for Jonathan Joseph, I was taking his contract (avg 7.3M) as an indication of what the Pats are comfortable paying for a CB2. I assume that they think Ryan will want substantially more (8.5-9M ?) otherwise why try to get Joseph at a point where you also had Rowe already on your team. But it's like reading tea leaves..

 

[ashley]

I think whether we sign Branch or not, we should look to add another big body either through FA or the draft. I really hope we bring Branch back though!!!

I also think we're going to need to add another tight end...I get the feeling that Bennett is going to leave which would make the TE position a real high priority.

I see someone else paying Harmon bigger money than we would, so that's another position we're going to need to address.

I'd really like for us to wrap up a deal for Hightower quick, it would be nice to know that he is back and could turn our attention to other positions.

 

[luuked]

I think whether we sign Branch or not, we should look to add another big body either through FA or the draft. I really hope we bring Branch back though!!!

I also think we're going to need to add another tight end...I get the feeling that Bennett is going to leave which would make the TE position a real high priority.

I see someone else paying Harmon bigger money than we would, so that's another position we're going to need to address.

I'd really like for us to wrap up a deal for Hightower quick, it would be nice to know that he is back and could turn our attention to other positions.

Lombardi was talking SB with Mays on the newest Ringer NFL show and he mentioned that both him and BB got a bit burned by underestimating Hicks' market a year ago and when they upped the offer it was already too late. He kinda implied that this experience will most probably make BB be a bit more aggressive in retaining Branch. He is sure that Blount and Branch will return.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Lombardi was talking SB with Mays on the newest Ringer NFL show and he mentioned that both him and BB got a bit burned by underestimating Hicks' market a year ago and when they upped the offer it was already too late. He kinda implied that this experience will most probably make BB be a bit more aggressive in retaining Branch. He is sure that Blount and Branch will return.

I would have loved to bring Hicks back. Thankfully we got quality snaps from Brown and Valentine, and Flowers emerged as a dangerous interior rushing threat, but we still need a long term replacement for Branch at some point in the next few years.

 

[mgteich]

OFFENSE
The Offense has very few issues. Sure, we will bring back Fleming, Lengel and Develin (and probably Bolden; and probably Floyd). This will cost very little. Re-signing our replacing Blount is also not a major money issue.

The only real issues on offense, IMHO, is the re-signing or franchising of Bennett and our situation at backup QB. IMHO, we should pay bennett whatever it takes, even if Gronk would require a raise. The reality is that Gronk is rarely 100% for anywhere near a full season. And, yes, I think we should carry 3 or even 4 TE's. Developing backups here is important to a Josh offense.

 

[luuked]

The only real issues on offense, IMHO, is the re-signing or franchising of Bennett and our situation at backup QB. IMHO, we should pay bennett whatever it takes, even if Gronk would require a raise. The reality is that Gronk is rarely 100% for anywhere near a full season. And, yes, I think we should carry 3 or even 4 TE's. Developing backups here is important to a Josh offense.

Ideally, the front office can get a Bennett 2 year deal and another Gronk extension done at the same time. Raise Gronk's money but add a few injury related incentives to add some security for the team. On some level his back injury is a chance to maybe get him under contract for even longer on a more reasonable deal than otherwise possible.

 

[mgteich]

DEFENSE
After making decisions on offense, we will have lots of cap money. The OPEN question is how much we'll spend on the big 6: Branch, Long, Hightower, Ryan, Butler and Harmon. IMHO, we have plenty of cap money for all. And, yes, I realize that we will miss on a couple and attempt to fill the spot with a free agent from outside.

 

[luuked]

DEFENSE
After making decisions on offense, we will have lots of cap money. The OPEN question is how much we'll spend on the big 6: Branch, Long, Hightower, Ryan, Butler and Harmon. IMHO, we have plenty of cap money for all. And, yes, I realize that we will miss on a couple and attempt to fill the spot with a free agent from outside.

Branch and Long with marginally higher numbers than this year. Lets say both including all incentives ect. around 3M each.
Hightower franchised (until possible extension in May) ~ 15-15.5M
Butler tendered (extended during off/preseason ?) ~ 3M
Ryan gone.

Harmon is the only real question mark for me. A Belichick tree team (Detroit ?) could easily pay him more than what BB would allocate to S3/FS2.

 

[mgteich]

Branch and Long with marginally higher numbers than this year. Lets say both including all incentives ect. around 3M each.
Hightower franchised (until possible extension in May) ~ 15-15.5M
Butler tendered (extended during off/preseason ?) ~ 3M
Ryan gone.

Harmon is the only real question mark for me. A Belichick tree team (Detroit ?) could easily pay him more than what BB would allocate to S3/FS2.

While I agree with your analysis, I believe that we should consider our #5 and #6 DB's as "starters" in our defense. For me, this means that free agency will (and should) focus on our defensive back, that is after we secure Hightower.

We have a lot of risk in losing EACH of Ryan, Butler and Harmon. Curiously, Butler is the least risk since we'd get a 1st as compensation he goes.

 

[manxman2601]

since we'tytrefds6T5d get a 1st

What happened here?

 

[mgteich]

What happened here?

no clue, I'll fix