Building 2017 roster

[BlueThunder]

If Pats only lose a couple of key players to FA and assuming BB trades JAG for 2 picks I am wondering who the bubble players might be on the current roster assuming BB keeps all his draft picks from rounds 1-3 on the 53 man roster ( This could number possibly 6-8 players) ....

This may be too early to speculate not knowing who gets re signed to Pats, which players get released to FA, and what his draft priorities are.....but I was wondering if anyone would take a shot at 6 or 8 players that will be replaced due to turnover...I think there are usually 20 or so new players added to the starting roster every year.

 

[luuked]

While I agree with your analysis, I believe that we should consider our #5 and #6 DB's as "starters" in our defense. For me, this means that free agency will (and should) focus on our defensive back, that is after we secure Hightower.

We have a lot of risk in losing EACH of Ryan, Butler and Harmon. Curiously, Butler is the least risk since we'd get a 1st as compensation he goes.

In contrast to some of the vultures in the main board I would really love to keep Ryan and Harmon but we have no real control over that as a tag is totally out of question.

Ryan especially has played himself into a bigger contract than BB will most probably be comfortable giving out, which is why I think he is gone. With Harmon I can't really estimate his market particularly well. I suppose somewhere between 3.5m-5m depending on interest from other teams. If it's on the lower end he might be back but if someone (Detroit ?) offers him around 5m I am not sure BB will be inclined to match.

 

[BlueThunder]

Ryan especially has played himself into a bigger contract than BB will most probably be comfortable giving out, which is why I think he is gone. With Harmon I can't really estimate his market particularly well. I suppose somewhere between 3.5m-5m depending on interest from other teams. If it's on the lower end he might be back but if someone (Detroit ?) offers him around 5m I am not sure BB will be inclined to match.

With Pats having around $65 million in cap space, it seems like there should be plenty of cap space to keep Hightower, Bennett, Butler,Ryan, Harmon, Branch, Floyd or anyone else that BB deems vital to the Pats. Am I wrong ?? Not everyone is going to be signed to a $10 mil/yr contract.......plus contracts can be structured to be cap friendly.

Upside is BB could use his draft picks by pkg and moving up to target a player or two that he really wants to fill a role rather than waiting for someone he would like drop into the Pats spot..... the only time that happened, that I remember, is Wilfork falling into his lap..I believe Steven Jackson was available also but he had just signed Dillon before the draft.... ( at least I think it was Corey).......

The other side is Beauty (Value) is in the eyes of the Beholder ( Belichick)

 

[luuked]

With Pats having around $65 million in cap space, it seems like there should be plenty of cap space to keep Hightower, Bennett, Butler,Ryan, Harmon, Branch, Floyd or anyone else that BB deems vital to the Pats. Am I wrong ?? Not everyone is going to be signed to a $10 mil/yr contract.......plus contracts can be structured to be cap friendly.

If you believe anything that is written in books or told by Lombardi then it doesn't matter how much cap space we have. BB & co set a value for a player and if someone else is ready to give more than that this player is gone. If e.g. Jon Robinson wants to upgrade the Titans secondary he most probably knows approximately how much he needs to pay to get the job done.

Ryan is in that no-mans land of Patriots contracts where he is not consistent/important enough to get a big contract (think DMac) but at the same time too good to accept whatever he gets offered here.

I think he will most probably fetch around 10m per year (similar to Jimmy Smith). I doubt that BB will go higher than 8-8.5 (~ 4y 30-32m with 16-18m guaranteed). As a comparison if we tender and then use the franchise tag on Butler he will make 9m on average the next two years.

 

[BlueThunder]

I know BB places a value on positions but Butler and Hightower are critical parts to Pats Defense IMHO.......If BB has to overpay by a million or so, does he let them walk, especially seeing he is in very good cap shape?? I think BB would have a bit of leeway with contract numbers with certain players, especially if they are locker room leaders. Do we think Hightower or Butler are players that will sign for a hometown discount to stay on a winning team with a HOF QB and Coach? I guess time will tell......

 

[captain stone]

DEFENSE
...The OPEN question is how much we'll spend on the big 6: Branch, Long, Hightower, Ryan, Butler and Harmon...

If the money is close to the same, then I'd MUCH rather re-sign Sheard than Long.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

If the money is close to the same, then I'd MUCH rather re-sign Sheard than Long.

I agree with you, but that's the thing: Long won't get much more than the league minimum at this point, while Sheard is likely to get a contract comparable to or slightly less than the one he just played on (2 years, 11 million). I can't imagine the money being close to the same for these two guys.

Both are very affordable for the Pats. But both are players the Pats can/should be looking to upgrade.

 

[long distance]

If you believe anything that is written in books or told by Lombardi then it doesn't matter how much cap space we have. BB & co set a value for a player and if someone else is ready to give more than that this player is gone. If e.g. Jon Robinson wants to upgrade the Titans secondary he most probably knows approximately how much he needs to pay to get the job done.

Ryan is in that no-mans land of Patriots contracts where he is not consistent/important enough to get a big contract (think DMac) but at the same time too good to accept whatever he gets offered here.

I think he will most probably fetch around 10m per year (similar to Jimmy Smith). I doubt that BB will go higher than 8-8.5 (~ 4y 30-32m with 16-18m guaranteed). As a comparison if we tender and then use the franchise tag on Butler he will make 9m on average the next two years.

The reason most people see Ryan gone is that BB probably prefers Butler and he probably can't afford both longterm. Another clue here was drafting CB in 2nd round and trading for Rowe. It would be unlike BB economy to invest so much in one position. Then there is a deep CB draft class. Plus some solid veterans in FA market he could get on a cheap short-term deal for safety (in regard to both Jones' and rookie's developments). At the moment this position has 4 players (plus probably Coleman) they have under control for 2 more years. One of the more solid positions entering FA.

Harmon on the other hand could be a possibility/economical validity. He's the only FS behind D-Mac and great asset in growing big nickel usage. His market value in general should not be too high (unless BBs children like in DET go strong after him). He is a heart of the locker room and the only insurance in case McCourty goes down. (btw D-Mac could move to CB in case of important injury there)

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

The reason most people see Ryan gone is that BB probably prefers Butler and he probably can't afford both longterm. Another clue here was drafting CB in 2nd round and trading for Rowe. It would be unlike BB economy to invest so much in one position. Then there is a deep CB draft class. Plus some solid veterans in FA market he could get on a cheap short-term deal for safety (in regard to both Jones' and rookie's developments). At the moment this position has 4 players (plus probably Coleman) they have under control for 2 more years. One of the more solid positions entering FA.

Harmon on the other hand could be a possibility/economical validity. He's the only FS behind D-Mac and great asset in growing big nickel usage. His market value in general should not be too high (unless BBs children like in DET go strong after him). He is a heart of the locker room and the only insurance in case McCourty goes down. (btw D-Mac could move to CB in case of important injury there)

Here is Jones and Ryan's combine numbers

5'10 193 4.56 116 6.69
5'11 197 4.49 116 6.71

I am sure the idea going in to the year was that Jones would eventually take over Ryan's role if Ryan became too expensive. Now, I am sure Ryan played better than anyone expected, and I am sure they wish they got more out of Jones this year, but I don't see any reason to break off from the original game plan.

I agree on Harmon as well, as the 3rd safety is now so important with our defense employing more and more dime and nickel formations. It doesn't even stop us from drafting another, which points me towards trying to bring him back if it's close on dollars.

 

[luuked]

Harmon on the other hand could be a possibility/economical validity. He's the only FS behind D-Mac and great asset in growing big nickel usage. His market value in general should not be too high (unless BBs children like in DET go strong after him). He is a heart of the locker room and the only insurance in case McCourty goes down. (btw D-Mac could move to CB in case of important injury there)

Absolutely.. I was starting to question if I am not overvaluing Harmon since most people had him gone. Harmon is sneakily a key extension next to Hightower and Branch because like you said currently there is no one on the roster that can fill for him adequately and that would limit a lot of stuff that the defense can do.

 

[luuked]

Here is Jones and Ryan's combine numbers

5'10 193 4.56 116 6.69
5'11 197 4.49 116 6.71

I am sure the idea going in to the year was that Jones would eventually take over Ryan's role if Ryan became too expensive. Now, I am sure Ryan played better than anyone expected, and I am sure they wish they got more out of Jones this year, but I don't see any reason to break off from the original game plan.

I agree on Harmon as well, as the 3rd safety is now so important with our defense employing more and more dime and nickel formations. It doesn't even stop us from drafting another, which points me towards trying to bring him back if it's close on dollars.

Ryan is one of those cases where the numbers don't give you the full story though. By all accounts Logan is Brady/Revis level crazy in terms of prep work during the week. Girardi mentioned that he keeps little notebook of every player he faced and Mayo never gets tired emphasizing how much film work Ryan does throughout the week to get ready.

Who knows with Cyrus but I definitely don't feel particularly good about Rowe. I know he is a big guy but when you rewatch the tape you see that he is not particularly fluid and sometimes his body control is borderline awful. As much praise Julio Jones gets for that sideline catch over him, I still don't understand how Rowe even missed to break it up. I suppose I am holding out for a minor miracle and Ryan resigning here.

People were making fun of our Rutgers pipeline but you gotta give it to Schiano that most of those players really are Patriots/BB material. Hard workers, team first and mentally tough.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Think you're a tiny bit too harsh on Rowe, but I see where you're coming from. I want Ryan back for his prep, as you pointed out. Schiano is now at OSU. Worth looking at their secondary.

 

[long distance]

Ryan is one of those cases where the numbers don't give you the full story though. By all accounts Logan is Brady/Revis level crazy in terms of prep work during the week. Girardi mentioned that he keeps little notebook of every player he faced and Mayo never gets tired emphasizing how much film work Ryan does throughout the week to get ready.

Who knows with Cyrus but I definitely don't feel particularly good about Rowe. I know he is a big guy but when you rewatch the tape you see that he is not particularly fluid and sometimes his body control is borderline awful. As much praise Julio Jones gets for that sideline catch over him, I still don't understand how Rowe even missed to break it up. I suppose I am holding out for a minor miracle and Ryan resigning here.

People were making fun of our Rutgers pipeline but you gotta give it to Schiano that most of those players really are Patriots/BB material. Hard workers, team first and mentally tough.

Well said. True about Rowe to some degree (as is for most bigger corners like @patchick nicely wrote about it recently) but let's not forget how much the secondary as a whole improved with him added, giving MP great chance to mix it up perfectly. Maybe Ryan's rise in the second part of the season has something to do with addition of Rowe! (not being asked to do things he can't do so well).

Remember how suddenly big receivers weren't a scare anymore. Remember how resolutely and strongly Rowe defended the yellow line etc. Lot's of positives about him also. And let's not forget he entered the team after TC, got injured and really started contributing in week 6 vs A.J. Green. If Cyrus steps up as he should (he showed glimpses of great slot plays already) and JJ steps up a little as well to a solid backup I don't think losing Ryan should be too big of concern .. as much as we'd all like him to stay..

 

[VJCPatriot]

Come on guys, let's get realistic.

In the current market DBs get overpaid.

DB's who just won Superbowls will get vastly overpaid.

If Logan Ryan gets offered 50m/5yrs and Duron Harmon gets offered 35m/5yrs do you seriously think any of them are coming back to New England? I don't.

In 2016 alone free agents got PAID:
CB Josh Norman got 75/5
CB Janoris Jenkins got 62.5/5
CB Sean Smith got 40/4
S Rodney Mcleod got 37/5
S Tashaun Gipson got 35.5/5

Now factor in that the salary cap will rise another 10-12m per team.
So Free Agents in 2017 are going to get paid even MORE.

You don't think Ryan gets at least 50/5 or 40/4?
You don't think Duron gets at last 35/5?

If they get offered anything close to that New England isn't going to match.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

Come on guys, let's get realistic.

In the current market DBs get overpaid.

DB's who just won Superbowls will get vastly overpaid.

If Logan Ryan gets offered 50m/5yrs and Duron Harmon gets offered 35m/5yrs do you seriously think any of them are coming back to New England? I don't.

In 2016 alone free agents got PAID:
CB Josh Norman got 75/5
CB Janoris Jenkins got 62.5/5
CB Sean Smith got 40/4
S Rodney Mcleod got 37/5
S Tashaun Gipson got 35.5/5

Now factor in that the salary cap will rise another 10-12m per team.
So Free Agents in 2017 are going to get paid even MORE.

You don't think Ryan gets at least 50/5 or 40/4?
You don't think Duron gets at last 35/5?

If they get offered anything close to that New England isn't going to match.

No one is disputing Ryan getting paid, so I am not sure where that question is coming from.

Harmon getting 7.5 a year would be a surprise, especially at the length you are talking about, but anything is possible. He's still only the 5-6 best safety on the market, and hasn't played more than 50% of the teams snaps, so there are legit questions if he will get paid well above average for a starting safety. A handful of guys always get overpaid because they have to be, but the secondary choices usually fall pretty close to league averages.

 

[long distance]

Another thing to take into account here is the talk about Brady's restructure.
Here's Miguel's projection .. as good guess as any



This would be intriguing because it could also be an indication that the Pats want to clear some significant cap space for 2018 and 2019 (both at 22M for Brady on the current contract) that they would need to sign more than one big long-term contract this year with guaranteed money in 2018 and possibly 2019. Does that include Butler or another bigger FA signing (like Campbell f.e.) remains to be seen but if they want to use this year's cap for a couple of bigger long term contracts they certainly need a healthy space in 2018 and 2019.

 

[manxman2601]

Another thing to take into account here is the talk about Brady's restructure.
Here's Miguel's projection .. as good guess as any

View attachment 16326

This would be intriguing because it could also be an indication that the Pats want to clear some significant cap space for 2018 and 2019 (both at 22M for Brady on the current contract) that they would need to sign more than one big long-term contract this year with guaranteed money in 2018 and possibly 2019. Does that include Butler or another bigger FA signing (like Campbell f.e.) remains to be seen but if they want to use this year's cap for a couple of bigger long term contracts they certainly need a healthy space in 2018 and 2019.

I'm rubbish with cap numbers. What's the potential dead money for '19-'21 if his age starts to affect him and they want to move on in this scenario? Is it just the 7.5m signing bonus?

 

[long distance]

I'm rubbish with cap numbers. What's the potential dead money for '19-'21 if his age starts to affect him and they want to move on in this scenario? Is it just the 7.5m signing bonus?

As far as I understand it 14.5M (2019) + 7.5M (2020) + 7.5M (2021). That would suggest that they are all confident he can play through 2019. If he decides or has to end it earlier they can probably restructure again in a way it doesn't hurt Pats so much going forward.

The sort of deals they are signing are based on enormous trust from both sides and with future of the team in mind.

 

[manxman2601]

As far as I understand it 14.5M (2019) + 7.5M (2020) + 7.5M (2021). That would suggest that they are all confident he can play through 2019. If he decides or has to end it earlier they can probably restructure again in a way it doesn't hurt Pats so much going forward.

The sort of deals they are signing are based on enormous trust from both sides and with future of the team in mind.

So he'd be locked in through 2019 effectively with '20-'21 being slightly risky gambles. Not that I doubt Tom's ability to still be the best option in those years. A President hopes for "four more years". Hopefully we get Tom for "five more years".

 

[MrNathanDrake]

Gostkowski will make more next year than any CB, LB, DT, RB, on our team.

I think he needs to restructure.