Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by long distance, Jan 16, 2017.
Interesting note about the Jones boys. Even more interesting, perhaps - no mention of Rowe.
Let me start with last one, since I was thinking/posting about it recently on main board (unfortunately the thread was hijacked by crazyAndy.. again..) I am happy to have peaceful discussion here.
I don't think anyone knows incl. TB & BB. But i can see everyone (except the fans of course) is prepared for the no option.
What I do know is that 40 is a funny age when body and mind start to go down regardless. Everybody's telling me the same story I experienced myself. It can be little things like eyesight going down by 10% etc. but they affect performance. They affect it invisibly and thats the hardest thing. Brain starts working slower by invisible margin and that can be a big difference in QBs game.
Brady's approaching that border. And even if he crosses that border better than most - there are other (personal) borders he is aware of.
Sorry for these elusive thoughts. I can see him starting in 2018. Current contract would suggest Pats see that too. Beyond that Id be surprised.
And that brings me to the more important and slightly less speculative thoughts: how are the Pats prepared for this complex situation. The answer I was coming to in some of my recent posts suggests - best they could be. They are in such a good cap and roster shape at the moment that they could even swallow worst case 2018 cap scenario of carrying both QBs on their top cap hits - 45M combined. (more about this in next post)
I don't think that will be necessary because TB and JG share the same agent that works very well with Pats FO. If needed they can asses situation daily and act accordingly to lessen cap burden if needed.
Keeping Garoppolo this season (or at least offseason) against most people's beliefs could hint the decision being made - but not necessarily. It could just as easy be only about 2017 & best insurance for almost no cost. But every day that passes with Jimmy on the roster the closer we are to the change of reign.
Lombardi and Schefter believe Pats have their future QB on the roster in Garoppolo.
If that is true Brady is retiring within two years time.
Here is a collage of some of my previous posts re cap implications of keeping both TB+JG (franchise tag)..
2017 FT for QBs is $21.25M. (It was 19.9M in 2016 and 18.5M in 2015).
Between 22-23M in 2018 Id guess.
You can add some 15M (yearly raise) to the 30M projected cap space in 2018.
Possible carryover between 10-15M (depending on Gronk and other incentives etc.)
So possibly some 60M to work with. Quite a lot of flexibility there.
Remember that even big new contracts carry relatively small 1st year cap hits.
Plus Pats bring back their UFAs for considerable less money than projected.
2017 cap hits for top UFAs Pats brought back in 2017:
Hightower - 5M
Branch - 3.7M
Harmon - 3.5M
Answer to some posters stating keeping JG on FT would be big risk and would have significant (negative) consequences for future roster:
I studied cap and roster situations for 2017 and 2018 carefully and I don't see what sacrifices and big risks you are talking about. If anything those real numbers are saying Pats are actually prepared for this possibility (not surprising, really).
As laid down in my previous posts . with some 55-60M projected cap space in 2018 . they can keep JG and UFAs they want . and that's without thinking about further restructures that can create some more cap space.
FT for JG 22-23M --- 33-37M cap remaining
So which Pats UFAs would qualify as creating big risk if they lose them?
1. Solder? They drafted 2 OTs and brought another 3 this offseason + signed Cannon long-term - which could indicate they could be moving on from Solder regardless.
2. Butler? Even if they want to bring him back they will let him test the market. I think its reasonable enough to believe they would not go into bidding war - and would not be paying two #1 CB contracts regardless of JG.
3. Ealy? He hasn't played a snap yet but lets suppose he'll be very good. Would they really go into bidding war for top DE they had for one season regardless of JG? On the other hand they used 2 of the top 3 picks on DE.
Isn't moving on from 10M+ UFAs what Pats regularly do - regardless of TB+JG situation?
And what would be bigger risk?
a) going from Solder to Fleming/Garcia (Lombardi mentioned option of Cannon moving to LT) . from Butler to Rowe (or Joneses not to mention strong udfa additions or solid vet) . from Ealy to Rivers/Wise (or a vet like Long, Sheard..)
b) going from Brady to Brissett (or some vet for sale)?
All the other UFAs they can comfortably bring back if they want.
So, after the possible JG FT - projected remaining cap = 33-37M
Edelman: 3-4M 2018 cap hit (or even less )
Amendola: - 1-2M
Burkhead: 2-3M (if he wants to stay)
Ninkovich: 1-2M (fro old times sake)
Van Noy: 3-4M (if he firmly grabs #2 LB)
no significant cap hits:
Probably they'll want to bring back half of them but even if they'd want all they could have them for less than 20M 2018 cap hit. Counting just probables - some 15M.
Still some 20M left for vets and some possible top restructures for 2019 UFAs (Cooks?, Flowers, Ghost, Allen, Mason, Hogan?, Chung?)
Lot's of speculation here of course - just wanted to illustrate Pats have so much flexibility to handle even the worst case scenario (45M cap hit for 2 QBs in 2018) . due to very healthy cap situation and extremely deep roster.
Interesting but too early to speculate. Cyrus was practicing returns as well (w some problems in the rain) so could be that. Maybe sounds strange but I still believe its Cyrus' job to lose. We shouldn't sleep on Dwayne Thomas though.. very serious option.
Rowe will be interesting to monitor as will all extremely stacked DB corps. Also Rowe beyond 2017 and CB position. I believe Butler will leave after the season (at the latest) so one Q to consider could be who replaces him opposite Gilmore in 2018 . especially in light of probable trade of the odd man out..
JJ is safest bet for roster spot (besides Gilmore and Butler) bc of his amazing ST game. If he can operate the slot best it would save a roster spot (and possibly bring some pick) so there certainly is rationale giving him best opportunity.
BTW - while Cyrus is by far the quickest (3-cone) JJ and D Thomas have much stronger BP: 19 & 18 compared to only 10 from Cy.
And this! Posted before but worth every look. One of the best slot/nickel CB performances of 2017 college season: Butler-like coverage, Ryan-like tackling, amazing blitzing .. how this guy goes undrafted in nickel era is beyond me..
If Langi, D Thomas and D Jones make 53 . I'll be a very happy man in September..
I see noticed the same. I was never a big fan of Cyrus but obviously hope he gets it together.
I'm more than happy with Butler, Gilmore, JJ and Rowe as a corp group. Specific skill sets but a lot of versatility as well.
Would love to be/have been a fly on the wall during these discussions.
From everything I read and hear theres a big difference between 30 and 40. Even 35 and 40, whereas 25-30 theres none.
So tough bc the guy is playing at such an incredibly high level even now.
In the old age it used to be 33 (“Christ's age“). Some certainly feel 35, but 40 is another game.
You'd be surprised that even in chess - the old's people game - there are only two guys older than 40 in top 10..
But since you're obviously not there yet yourself - don't! (worry, discuss, read about it). Don't even think about it. Thats TBs secret..
If he has another couple of great yrs on-field and retires w/o decline/injury . he'll be thankful as hell about it for the rest of his life.
Great list. Says a lot about Aaron Rodgers over Brady talk..
The only belief I have is that they will keep the picks this time and probably add more (and i don't even mean JG). A lot depends on how many of strong udfa class outplay vets for spots.
The position I have my eye on is DT. It might be 1st pick . depending on how the board falls. Thankfully seems like a great class after poor 2017. There might be an early rush so even trade up could be in play.
Branch was (slightly surprising) the rock BB wants up front. But he has 2 more years max. (Wanted to retire already but found new fun in this year's run). Brown is one of the big Qs going forward. A solid player that eats blocks and creates opportunities for others but has certainly not turned into Vince Wilfork BB would be comfortable with.
“Malcom [Brown]’s had some good moments,” Belichick said Tuesday (Dec 2016). “We’re just looking really for more consistency there. [Alan] Branch has been by far our most consistent defensive tackle. The other guys can shoot to get up to his level.”
Patspulpit had an article arguing Brown will be traded.
Malcom Brown will be traded, and the only question is when
Valentine did very well in backup/rotational role, has higher ceiling and can be great #2 DT but while he is Vincent he's no Vince. From the long distance it looks like the future #1 DT spot is open and 2018 draft has some intriguing prospects to offer.
On the other hand Brown is certainly still very much in fight for it:
Malcom Brown has come a long way in second year - The Boston Globe
In any case I fully expect reamer to open a DT thread similar to edge this year or simply Fletch to arrange for Vea to fall for Pats.
(and since you got me going - i'll go and watch some Mack & McKenzie)
some MB ? articles:
Bill Belichick calls out Malcom Brown: 'We’re just looking really for more consistency'
Here's why Malcom Brown got benched against Jets
Brown is a bit of a mystery. Inconsistent last year but did have a really nice stretch from around week 4-5 to around 10-12 but obviously Bill isn't completely happy.
DT class is a he'll of a lot better this year.
Dre'mont Jones and Mack are two guys I think could be in play if that's the way we go.
I heard Mack is an absolute monster in the weight room and flashes big time but his play left a lot to be desired for me.
Before i return to the thread w updates etc. . just a small tribute to 2016 roster
I'm less concerned with Brown at DT (though I'm not exactly over-joyed with him either) as I am with his & Branch's backups. I'm not a Vinnie Valentine fan, at all.
I thought he was absolutely terrible value at 96. Larry the Guy is a classic 3-4 DE,
so where does he play here? 3-Tech, maybe? As for the rest of the DTs, I wouldn't
give a conditional 2020 7th-round draft pick for the lot of them.
I was quite impressed with Valentine's rookie year especially since he joined late and was injured mid season. Looking forward to see his second year. If body holds he can make this kind of plays on more consistent basis:
DeAngelo Williams dropped immediately by Vincent Valentine for 3-yard loss
Here a nice article on Valentine's rookie year:
Vincent Valentine rose to the occasion for Pats' D
And here great article by Hill on Pats making advantage of DL market:
Patriots defensive tackles are a market inefficiency
New England is spending $19.08 million per year on both /starting/ defensive tackles and edge defenders combined. Suh is averaging $19.06 million with the Dolphins.
This way they can afford to have all positions covered with good starters and rotational/situational players plus very solid backups. No team has better players #23-53 than the Pats. Id guess its not even close
This way they can also take advantage to invest bigger money to assemble great players at other position like DB this year. They could keep Harmon, upgrade Ryan and even reward Chung. Here my post on the subject: Chung next to earn more in 2017; Pats boost incentive bonuses to $1.7m
BTW - I look forward “Larry“ being the Guy all-over Pats D-line..
I'd like Vinnie a little better if he had been drafted where his athletic ability and
college production dictated that he be drafted: with one of the late 6th/early 7th-rounders used on KGH, lil' Elandon Roberts, Mongo Jr Jr & Devin Lucien.
The best DT of the run-stopping kind still available at 96 was Andrew Billings,
on whom I will keeping a close eye this season with the Bungles.
Interesting read by Bucky Brooks on rising value of hybrid players (or better - players who can fill more roles on the field) and current/future contract implications . which means also future roster building implications:
Le'Veon Bell changing NFL economics? Plus, essential GM traits
While Bell and Mathieu have a certain point . its interesting to think about how this effects/will effect NE with their notorious search for versatile players and conservative approach to top contracts to keep the balance and depth of the team at all times.
While other issues were big part of the decision to let Collins go - the fact that they didn't want to pay him as LB+edge rusher (like he was reportedly asking) also played a part.
On the other hand many were surprised by two relatively excessive contracts this FA: Gilmore as elite CB despite keeping Butler and Burkhead as lead RB with basically one NFL game production.
While there is no apparent hybrid talk w Gilmore (or ST) his large contract seems to pay for classical treats: vet in prime, dependable (close to 100% snaps on D expected), leader by example, projected elite at position..
With Burkhead versatility was probably big part of the contract. Little playing time (and long time scouting) was enough to project him as 4-down player and durable, versatile chain mover (+ little milage).
McClellin is another player on a higher contract than expected Id guess on account of versatility. Unfortunately his versatility was not of a starter so far but more in a back up capacity . making him pretty pricy versatile commodity..
great cap comp of 2007 and 2017 teams
#5 cap hit from 2007: Kyle Eckel?
important point . also in light of JG decision..
For the record, if anyone's wondering about Eckel, that's a relic of the old CBA. Instead of just rolling over cap space, you had to find someone like Eckel and:
(1) Rework his contract with an unreachable incentive (e.g., a FB getting 10 sacks).
(2) IIRC all incentives added midseason are (or at least were) considered LTBE and charged to that year's cap.
(3) As an unmet LTBE incentive, a credit was issued the next year.
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