Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by long distance, Jan 16, 2017.
Also in light of the cutting of Tre Jackson, an interior OL is a likely pick/UDFA presumably.
As we know Pats roster is already loaded. Here a look at current situation with a view on final 53 & possible draft indications (more about that in next posts)
Bold - locks (by playtime, contract etc.)
Regular - starters/rotational players that could be released (mostly not likely)
Teal - PS eligible
Grey - bubble
Like in OP I added - age (at season start), final contract year, 2017 cap hit
* means ST value
IR - possible start of the season on PUP
QB - 12Brady (40, 2019, $14), 10Garoppolo (25, 2017; $1.1), 7Brissett (24, 2019, $0.8)
RB - Gillislee (26, 2018, $4), Burkhead* (27, 2017, $3.1), 28White (25, 2020, $1.8), 33Lewis* (26, 2017, $1.5), 27DJ Foster* (23, 2018, $0.5), 38Bolden* (27, 2017, $0.7)
FB - 46Develin* (29, 2018, $1.4), 47G Gronkowski (24, r/fc, $0.5)
WR - Cooks (23, 2018*/opt., $1.5 ), 11Edelman* (31, 2017, $5.2), 15Hogan (28, 2018, $3), 19Mitchell (24, 2019; $0.7), 80Amendola* (31, 2017, $3), 16Lucien (24, r/fc, $0.5)
TE - 87R Gronkowski (28, 2019, $6.7, IR), Allen (27, 2019, $5), 85M Williams (26, 2017, $0.5), 82Lengel (26, 2017, $0.5), Housler (29, r/fc, $0.6)
OL - 77Solder (29, 2017, $11.1), 62Thuney (24, 2019, $0.7), 60Andrews (25, 2017, $0.6), 69Mason (24, 2018; $0.7), 61Cannon (29, 2021; $3.3), 71Fleming (25, 2017, $1.8), 75Karras (24, 2019; $0.6), 68Waddle (26, 2017; $1.1),
65Douglas (25, r/fc, $0.5), 66Farris (24, r/fc, $0.5), 64Barker (27, r/fc, $0.5)
DT - 97Branch (32, 2018, $3.7), 90Brown (23, 2018, $2), 99Valentine (23, 2019, $0.7), Guy (27, 2020, $2.6), 74Hamilton (24, r/fc, $0.5), 96Kilgo (25, r/fc, $0.6)
DE - 98Flowers (24, 2018, $0.7), Ealy (25, 2017, $0.9) 50Ninkovich (33, 2017, $2.5), 92Grissom* (25, 2018; $0.6)
LB - 54Hightower (27, 2020, $7.5), 53Van Noy* (26, 2017, $1.1), 58McClellin* (28, 2018, $3.3), 52E Roberts* (23, 2019; $0.6), 55Freeny (28, 2018; $1.7, IR), 44Bates (24, r/fc, $0.5)
CB - Gilmore (26, 2021, $8.5), 21Butler (27, 2017, $3.9), 25Rowe* (24, 2018; $0.9), 24Cy Jones* (24, 2019; $0.9), 31J Jones* (23, 2018; $0.6), 22Coleman (24, 2017, $0.6)
S - 32McCourty (30, 2019, $11), 23Chung (30, 2018, $4.5), 30Harmon (26, 2020, $3.5), 37Richards* (24, 2018, $1), 43Ebner* (28, 2017, $1.2), 36King* (24, 2017, $0.6)
ST - 3Gostkowski (33, 2018, $4.5), 6Allen (27, 2018, $1.9), 49Cardona (25, 2018; $0.7), 18Slater (31, 2017; $1.6)
65 . players on the roster
c.40 . locks + another 10 likely to make the roster
Looking at this suddenly 6 picks seem like a lot in the sense that it is very likely some of them will have to be exposed to waivers..
EDIT: OP indeed updated -- Building 2017 roster
Thank you for keeping these updated.
Ok, some thoughts on the draft w a view on this roster breakdown:
@QB - 3
While anything can happen Im trusting my feeling, Lombardi, Schefter and mostly BB that this is set. Carrying 3 QBs is a lot considering the depth of the roster but its a small price to pay to be in the February game again.
@RB+FB - 4+1
Gill, Rex & White are locks. Develin as well, thankfully no need to explain it on this board.
The last spot seems to be between Lewis and Foster. If Lewis is released or traded the savings are 1.3M and 200.000 cap hit.
Bolden has an outside chance this year IMO. Plenty of good ST options. Barring injury of Gill or Rex in preseason Bolden's spot is likely on a “hidden roster“.
FA: They might bring another veteran just in case. Some good backup options should be available for vet min in May (Charles, Asiata, Hillman, Chris Johnson..)
Draft implications: drafting a RB makes little to no sense; i dont see a day 3 rookie that could break the roster so a pick would likely be waisted on PS at best. Since its a deep RB class Id like to take a RB or two on Day 4.
@ WR - 5 + 1 (Slater)
Loaded. Poor Lucien looks at another PS year.
(BTW - strange things happening with DeAndrew White who appears and disappears on different Pats rosters. Now its gone again)
FA: Some signing like Washington last year possible. Maybe some vet like Stevie Johnson. Some intriguing names still out there. Streater on the street again..
Draft implications: With Edelman and Amendola in contract years (and over 30) a slot receiver would still be a good idea. Since there looks to be no space on the roster (unless they go 6+1 which would seem excessive esp. w 3QBs already and 2TE option) a lower rounder/UDFAs could be the way. Pats had plenty of contacts with exactly those kind of WR prospects..
@TE - 3
Last year they went with 4 TEs and no one on PS (two snatched away from waivers IIRC). Then cut one, traded the other. If Gronk is ready for TC I think the'll go with 3 this year and one or two on PS (if they can smuggle them)
Gronk and Allen are locks. Third spot (and PS) wide open.
FA: Nothing much on the market left. Tamme (conn to SF), Donnell, Harbor, Tim Wright..
Draft implications: Good class as we know. Possible mid rounder (Kittle, Leggett, Butt, Hodges). I wonder what they really think of Shaheen. Plenty of options in all rounds including UDFA. I think they'd try to take at least 1-2 undrafted along w 1 pick.
@OT - 4
Solder is a big Q but considering all - they play him this season and possibly let him go as UFA for high comp pick. No extension rumours. Can't FT him. He's gonna be expensive as hell on this OL market plus he wasn't as solid as before injury (f.e. look at last SBLI two-point conversion where he almost blew a play). He was outplayed by Cannon by some margin. Acc. to Lombardi no big difference between LT and RT in todays NFL. Fleming looked solid when he came in for him.
Waddle's contract situation: — 850.00 (savings) // 275.000 (dead cap).
FA: Not much out there.
Draft implications: Perfect moment to draft developmental OT. Not the best class. Thankfully we still have Dante. I wouldn't be surprised if OT gets drafted at any spot, even #72 or trade up (Ramczyk/Bolles if by chance one falls, Garcia, Moton). UDFA also a possibility since there might not be a big difference between currently projected mid rounder (Davenport, R Johnson, Wheeler, Bisnowaty, Holden, Eleumunor etc) and projected UDFAs.. (Norton, Tevi, Seaton, Rich, Eide, Ugokwe..)
@IOL - 4-5
Seems set at starting positions. Lot's of love reported for Karras. But losing Tre might open a spot here despite loaded PS.
FA: Some vet options still out there. Brought Fusco for visit yesterday. Mangold of course . depending on implications to Anderson who they obviously love despite shortcomings.
Draft implications: Drafting a versatile IOL is certainly an option even if they go for OT. Lots of mid to late round contacts: Asiata, Gennesy, Eluemunor, Fuller, Morgan.. I wonder if they'd jump on opportunity for higher ranked guys like Elflein, Pocic, Dawkins, D Johnson; I wouldn't mind that - if nothing else to make our Captain happy..
This totals 25-26, with the choice being on the OL. I agree. The other numbers seem to be set. Folks should tell us where they are getting the roster spot when they suggest more at any offensive position.
OFFENSIVE LINE (8-9)
Keeping nine would be a crunch on the defense, but that might happen since we need backups who might no contribute immediately. We have our SIX locks (including Fleming).
We need an OT and two IOL's, one of which would be our backup center. Clearly, Karras could win one of these 2-3 roster spots.
Personally, I would expect us to draft a tackle who could double as a backup guard this year.
I expect us to continue to interview free agent OL's and of course UDFA's in addition to drafting 2-4.
Of course, we also have a need for backups on the DL, especially a DE for 2018.
DEFENSE - part 1
@dt - 4-5
Pretty much set. Hamilton and Kilgo both started in NFL already so tough road for any new signing. Hamilton's improvement from preseason to regular season was uncanny. They paid Kilgo 53 money, probably for a reason.
FA: Lots of options out there but little need. Maybe one more vet for camp just to keep things honest.
Draft implications: Im sure they love Tomlinson that could be at #72 but seems like wrong timing. Wormley would be great as well. They did have lots of contacts with mid to lower rounders or udfas - as great Manx recap shows - 2017 Patriots Draft Contacts Thread - so they will probably bring at least one DT rookie in. A pick could be wasted, maybe better wait for Day 4.
@edge - 4-5
All was said about this position. May be the only need although BB might disagree. But even if you count Van Noy and McClellin in the aging Ninko needs successor . and what better time than when he is still around. 4 man rotation of strong edge guys was key last year though and despite Guy's DE versatility (on certain downs I guess) I see 2 spots clearly open here (no disrespect Geneo).
FA: Some interesting vet options still out there (Ayers, Walden, Dumervil, Devin Taylor). But Id guess this position will be mostly about draft.
Draft implications: Most discussed position on this board so no need here. Id expect at least 3 rookies to be brought in TC.
@LB - 5-6
With Hightower back hard to say a need but the position still seems somewhat open. Definitely space to compete. Id say Van Noy, Roberts and McClellin are near locks. Roberts showed great situational value and if he could improve in coverage he would be a perfect lock. To me he and his heart are on 53 in any case. Looking at Van Noy's SBLI snap count alone he's a lock. His contract (1.1M savings, 0 dead cap) keeps things open. It will be his first full season with Pats. He plugged in very good, even wearing green dot with High out. Id be surprised if he's gone. McClellin has two things going for him: 1) contract (1.5M savings / 1.6M dead cap); 2) coaches like him more than fans. Similar could be said about Freeny (0.9M savings / 0.8M dead cap). There's also Trevor Bates, praised (and raised his salary) on PS. I have a feeling he could be great ST replacement for Mingo and a solid backup on D. So not necessarily much space here either. Still - at least its somewhat opened for competition so I expect some new blood. What I think this unit misses most is speed, esp. lateral speed and agility in coverage so I hope they add a few quick guys.
FA: Dan Skuta visiting. They were after Worrilow in FA so Id guess - depending on the draft - they'd go back at it after May 10 deadline (all become street FA). Still some solid players out there like Kendricks (PHI trading him), Levy (inj concern), Josh Martin (ST)
Draft implications: Lots of contacts, lots of options that we discussed already. If McMillan falls in Pats range that could answer many Qs. Possibly Anzalone but he is rising. Langi of course in mid rounds etc. Id expect 2-3 LB rookies to join the summer party and no more than 1 pick.
WRT Linebacker ...
It seems to me that the two best are HT and Van Noy.
Van Noy is UFA at the end of the season. And, the Pat have been dropping HT down to the LoS a fair amount (and to great effect).
If Van Noy walks, that leaves the Pats with some combo of McClellin/Freeny/Roberts/Bates in sets with two LBs - or they use HT on the LoS less often - perhaps problematic with both Ealy and Nink possibly gone after the season.
So, it seems to me that using picks on a high-end LB who could become a Van Noy-level starter in in 2018, and a lower-grade DE (or two) who could become a rotational player in 2018 might have more overall benefit than going for one high-end DE and lower-grade LBs.
My cat-and-mouse thoughts of last two months.. and first thing this morning.
So much to do still till Pats are on the clock..
Just quickly - McMillan and Cunningham could come within BB's reach. He worked out both personally. My eye is on McMillan from the start as you know.
Next tier is Anzalone, Beckwith, possibly Riley (in more limited capacity).
You know about my reservations re. Beckwith (mostly attitude) so if BB takes him Ill be ok - also thanks to reamer.
There's Langi of course that should be there in the 4th but if BB wants him he will not wait.
Further down there are still some good prospects - B Brown (rising on boards & probably too similar to Elandon), Biegel (another risier that I used to pick when he was lower), Reeves-Maybin, Wilson, Gedeon Taylor .. - but in more situational capacity.
Give me McMillan and DeM Walker and I can forget about Basham..
DEFENSE - part 2
@ CB 5-6
More and more likely Butler is staying. And if he stays I trust he will be Butler, not Collins. Id like to see they start Cyrus on D first (slot) to get some self-confidence and calm down. I know most see Gilmore-Rowe outside w Butler sliding in the slot (which would further upset Butler in regard to his 2018 UFA value). Id like to see Gilmore-Butler outside with Cyrus inside and Rowe as situational piece.
FA: Id like to add a vet to this group. Lots of solid vet options still out there: not only McCourty (hard to see the sense on both sides if Butler stays), also Leon Hall, McKelvin, Arrington possible release (if inj cleared), Johnatan Joseph still a possible trade w HOU etc.
Draft implications: a dice on Sydney Jones would make a lot of sense if he falls further. We all like projected mid rounders and there is a spot on the roster to compete with Coleman but Id go for lower round here or just 2-3 UDFAs depending on what we want @S. Drafting Safety and CB would seem excessive in regard to both Harmon and Butler unless you can IR one..
Richards is the big Q here. They removed him first from D rotation, then from ST, ended among inactives. Strangely enough he is PS eligible and would be safe there Id guess but I expect they make final decision on him this summer. What I would really like to know is if there is some chance for Ebner on D. I feel he could be great. BB considers him one of the most improved players He's ever coached. Id love to see what he can do. King is probably a lock especially if Bolden goes.
FA: Not too many options. Also no need.
Draft implications: Well, I have to admit, as some of you know already, I am deeply in love with this S class. Id have 10 of them, no problem. It would be nice to have Obi, great to have Buda, amazing to have Maye. But edge, OL and LB are slight needs and with so many good safeties at the bottom of the draft or outside it would just be infatuation (and thats BB's trademark - exclusively w safeties of course). Whatever happens on Day 2 or 3 Id love if they go all-in here on Day 4 - in case people will take their calls knowing how loaded they are. So here's my dream S/DB UDFA class: Gerry, J Ford, Holsey, Tocho (all could get drafted), D Jones, Nicholson, Luani
@ST - 3
All set. Possibly some UDFA K, P for some fun since there will be space on 90.
The thing for me about Butler is that he seems somewhat limited to covering the left boundary. I just don't see him being consistently successful on the right side or playing at Logan Ryan level in the slot (I don't think Butler has quite the agility for that).
Gilmore, IIRC, has been reasonably successful on both left and right boundaries, and in the slot to some degree. Rowe has been primarily an RCB/slot guy (and has great size/athleticism). I could actually see Rowe being transitioned to safety at some point in the future.
Coleman, I think, has been used mostly on the right side and some in the slot, but he's pretty clearly hit his ceiling as a backup.
With the coverage abilities/development of Cyrus as yet undetermined, and with Butler potentially walking in 2018, it would seem only prudent to attempt to add a CB with the potential to develop into a 2018 starter, especially a prospect who has considerable experience playing the left side - someone who could at least challenge Coleman (who also doesn't contribute extensively on ST).
I wouldn't necessarily go with an older vet FA for the 53-man this year since they typically wouldn't play ST (although I might bring one into Camp on the 90-man roster).
At safety, Ebner is pretty clearly now the heir apparent to Slater as ST captain and King played zero defensive snaps in 2016, so I'd count him only as an ST coverage unit specialist. Richards seems pretty "expendable".
A legitimate 4th safety, injury backup/potential Chung replacement, would be a really good guy to acquire soon, it seems to me. I agree that there doesn't seem to be much available among FAs. When ... IF ... BB might draft such prospect later tonight or tomorrow depends on what he's prioritizing.
Before I return to my duties here w updates and followups . let me just share this nugget about a guy Id like to see extended next..
Check out @NEPD_Loyko's Tweet:
I still expect a couple of vets to be signed after the 10th; I just hope that none of my UDFA binkies are sacrificed to make those signings possible.
no major differences . still interesting chart
updates etc. soon to follow..
I don't understand the Andrew Hawkins signing. He's just a tiny JAG who doesn't offer anything more than what we already had here. And why Bill dumped Devin Street to make room instead of the useless, never-will-be DeAndrew White is a complete mystery.
Bill also screwed-up by allowing Buffalo to sign LB Gerald Hodges, exactly as he screwed-up by allowing them to sign Zach Brown last year (while he signs Shea McClellin for almost 3 times the amount with 1/3 the production). Hodges would've been the best LB here not named Hightower.
I actually “projected“ (above) one more vet WR signing similar to Nate Washington last year (and had Hawkins on my short list - no pun intended!). It's reportedly for 1yr . I guess its vet signing w little to no guarantees. They like him, he was available, no risks or significant cap hit, he desperately wanted to come (turning down better deals acc. to him) - why not? He has experience, production, quickness&speed, fits Pats O.
He is actually a great signing for TC in view of Pats numerous young DB corps . good vet depth if injuries strike . and if he by any chance outplays any of the 5 “locks“ Pats will get some cap credit.
(don't get me wrong Jules is my favourite and I love Danny so I do hope they are there for the season)
Bringing back D White is not such a mystery . since BB was pretty outspoken in his praise of him and gave him a raise on PS.
Hawkins, Amendola and Edelman are all 31 (Amendola turns 32 during the BYE week). Hawkins didn't bounce back very well in 2016 from the two concussions that ended his 2015 season after week-10.
It's possible that BB thought that White wouldn't clear waivers. Street did clear. We may well see a couple more roster moves next Friday and one of them brings Street back. The 90-man Camp roster is far from being set yet.
It's interesting, though, that all of the UDFAs are still here. In the past, more often than not, one or two would be gone by now - especially with 20 of them on the roster. Perhaps that speaks to the strength of this class.
For LD but really dont mind any answers.
Any opinions on first few picks next year?
I'm sure you have a few?
Just checking, you think 12 is the starter in next year, 2018-19?
Separate names with a comma.