Building 2017 roster

[jboston19]

What's the max they can carry over to meet the spending threshold?
(And apologies if this has been answered elsewhere and I just missed it).

I think it's over a 4 or 5 year period. They could carry all of the remaining over as long as they spend 89% by the deadline in a few years.

 

[captain stone]

So. Rex Burkhead happened.

It seems like Blount is done.

Now, if Burkhead's contract had been, say, +/- $2M APY for 3 years, I'd simply have taken Kareem Hunt and similar RB prospects off my board for the Pats.

But, it's $3.15M for ... just ... one ... year.

And all the Pats RBs, except Foster, will be UFA at the end of the 2017 season.

If Burkhead performs really well, he may be too expensive to retain. If he performs poorly, he may need replacing.

Now what?

I still can't get over the deal Burkhead received.
Absolutely feckin ridiculous.
If Bill now thinks that he doesn't need to draft a Power Back, then he's feckin delusional.

 

[captain stone]

I don't know. LeBlanc and Roberts were tough to take last year.

Roberts never should have been exposed to waivers. He's >>>>>> Justin Coleman.

I also thought that KGH and LeBlanc would go unclaimed

 

[maineman209]

So, 64 for players currently under contract (including unsigned tenders), leaving 26 spots open on the off-season 90-man roster.

Minus 7 draft picks (possibly 8, depending on what happens with a certain cornerback who I'm now more sick of hearing about than the Kardashians).

The Pats may yet sign Blount for maybe $200k guaranteed on an $(whatever)M 1-year deal to at least compete through Camp (probably in late July, if he hasn't signed elsewhere). Floyd's detention doesn't end till late-June, so that could be another pre-Camp re-signing. But neither of these possibilities seems likely to impact the number of open spots available between now and about mid-May.

That leaves 18-19 spots for free agents and UDFAs.

While there may yet be some interesting roster cuts by other teams (most probably coming post-draft), I'm not seeing much value among the remaining UFAs right now, unless someone sees something I'm missing ...

Here's spotrac's sortable list ...

2017 NFL Free Agents Tracker

Anyway, it sound like there may be a lot of room for UDFAs.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Remaining to do list as rungs currently stand:

Pass rusher
Coverage linebacker
Big running back

 

[captain stone]

I would also add:

Swing Tackle of the Present/Left Tackle of the Future
Backup with Starter potential at both Center and Left Guard

 

[long distance]

Great board w position spendings across the league.
Only lighter colours for Pats . meaning well balanced roster
(despite this years DB blow up..)




BTW - OP 2017 Pats roster (w age, contract year, cap hit) is finally updated!
Building 2017 roster

 

[luuked]

Great board w position spendings across the league.
Only lighter colours for Pats . meaning well balanced roster
(despite this years DB blow up..)




BTW - OP 2017 Pats roster (w age, contract year, cap hit) is finally updated!
Building 2017 roster

I saw this earlier on Twitter. I just wish whoever did it swapped the color scheme. Seems not particularly intuitive to me to make the higher cap allocation green and the lower one red. But yeah.. nitpicking..

 

[long distance]

Thanks to Miguel we have another important date in Pats roster building.
I was looking for this info and couldn't find it. Thank god we have Miguel.
May 10: the day BB starts signing new UFAs.



Until then Id expect mostly current street agents, released players and if Butler is traded maybe another trade..
.. depending on what happens w Long (no word of new job) . if he retires it will be a blow to Pats comp pick equation.
.. depending on what they do with the last 4 of their UFAs . and if they can sign a deal elsewhere that qualifies them in comp pick equation.

For the moment Pats have only 1 projected comp pick (4th for Ryan) and my guess is they would like to get at lest one more back (5th for Bennett; could still become 4th by the end of next season): See comp pick current cancellation chart below:

Compensatory Draft Picks Cancellation Chart | Over the Cap

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

Thanks to Miguel we have another important date in Pats roster building.
I was looking for this info and couldn't find it. Thank god we have Miguel.
May 10: the day BB starts signing new UFAs.



Until then Id expect mostly current street agents, released players and if Butler is traded maybe another trade..
.. depending on what happens w Long (no word of new job) . if he retires it will be a blow to Pats comp pick equation.
.. depending on what they do with the last 4 of their UFAs . and if they can sign a deal elsewhere that qualifies them in comp pick equation.

For the moment Pats have only 1 projected comp pick (4th for Ryan) and my guess is they would like to get at lest one more back (5th for Bennett; could still become 4th by the end of next season): See comp pick current cancellation chart below:

Compensatory Draft Picks Cancellation Chart | Over the Cap

Been thinking about this lately in regards to the Jamie Collins trade. BB knew he wasn't going to be sitting on comp picks this summer. He was always planning on being very aggressive.

So, it was never about a pick this year or next year. It was just about getting whatever pick they could count on

 

[luuked]

Been thinking about this lately in regards to the Jamie Collins trade. BB knew he wasn't going to be sitting on comp picks this summer. He was always planning on being very aggressive.

So, it was never about a pick this year or next year. It was just about getting whatever pick they could count on

That's what a few of us have been saying right after the Collins trade. People were *****ing about him going for free and assuming we'd get a comp pick at worst anyway when we were looking at an offseason with over 60m in cap space.

Getting that pick guaranteed for giving up 8 games of a player that was Jamie Collins in name only and create more flexibility in FA was a good move.

 

[maineman209]

Thanks to Miguel we have another important date in Pats roster building.
I was looking for this info and couldn't find it. Thank god we have Miguel.
May 10: the day BB starts signing new UFAs.



Until then Id expect mostly current street agents, released players and if Butler is traded maybe another trade..
.. depending on what happens w Long (no word of new job) . if he retires it will be a blow to Pats comp pick equation.
.. depending on what they do with the last 4 of their UFAs . and if they can sign a deal elsewhere that qualifies them in comp pick equation.

For the moment Pats have only 1 projected comp pick (4th for Ryan) and my guess is they would like to get at lest one more back (5th for Bennett; could still become 4th by the end of next season): See comp pick current cancellation chart below:

Compensatory Draft Picks Cancellation Chart | Over the Cap

Good to know about that May 10 date. It seems to me that may assure that Floyd won't impact Comp pick calculations since he's under house arrest until late June.

But would Blount, Bolden or Scruggs signing elsewhere for +/- $1M get be enough to get a couple of 7th-roundrs for the Pats?

 

[luuked]

It seems to me that may assure that Floyd won't impact Comp pick calculations since he's under house arrest until late June.

That goes both ways though.. if he signs with someone else he also doesn't count as an compensatory pick eligible player for us

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Good to know about that May 10 date. It seems to me that may assure that Floyd won't impact Comp pick calculations since he's under house arrest until late June.

But would Blount, Bolden or Scruggs signing elsewhere for +/- $1M get be enough to get a couple of 7th-roundrs for the Pats?

I really do not see any of those three signing for that kind of money,

If any of those three do, it will go to prove there is a jets fan (sucker) born every minute.

 

[maineman209]

I really do not see any of those three signing for that kind of money,

If any of those three do, it will go to prove there is a jets fan (sucker) born every minute.

IDK. I could see the Pats re-signing Blount in July for Camp for $150-$200k guaranteed - as part of a nominal $1.5M, one-year deal. If he doesn't survive final cuts, the team is only out the guaranteed money.

This is assuming that he doesn't sign for more elsewhere first. I don't know what the odds are that some other team offers him significantly more than that, or what the odds are that he'd be eager to sign elsewhere for what seems (to me) likely to be a slight pay bump, given his experience with the Steelers.

Bolden is clearly a very good veteran special teamer - 5th highest usage rate on Pats' ST coverage units in 2016. He made $1.27M in 2016 (more than Blount). I could see one of the several teams that had crappy return-coverage units last year (like the Jets) signing Bolden for more than what the Pat's would be willing to pay - say, $1.5M.

With Scruggs, my guess is that he's done in the NFL and returns to his musical career.

 

[long distance]

With Bolden back I have 65 players signed (as does Miguel).
But Reiss is suggesting there are 66 on the roster in todays quick-hits.

The mysterious player seems to be DeAndrew White who was reportedly the only PS player not signed to futures contract and there was no other report since then.

But lately he features on Patriots active roster and projected depth-charts so it is possible he is somehow still on Pats roster for 2017. It would be nice to get some clarification about his situation . in the meantime let's go with www.patriots.com team roster that seems to be up to date. Especially since I wanted to see DeA White in TC and since he was praised by BB on more than one occasion giving him a raise during the season as well.

The other roster info that you can see there is that Branch is still a FA since he didn't sign the contract yet. No worries as Reiss reports it should become official soon:

Patriots defensive tackle Alan Branch, who mostly spends his offseasons at his primary residence in Arizona and traditionally doesn't take part in voluntary offseason work, was back in town Wednesday for a physical and general check-in at Gillette Stadium. It was his first time back in town since agreeing to a two-year contract with a maximum value of $12 million last month, which should be the catalyst for his contract with the Patriots to become official in the coming days.
_____

BTW - 4 players that are generally included on 2017 roster are technically also still FAs since they haven't signed their tenders yet (Butler, Fleming, King, Lengel) - but that's nothing unusual since this deals are mostly signed closer to the deadline.

 

[long distance]

nice look at BB modus operandi.
only one assigned pick left on 2017 draft capital (3d round #96)
and a good chance this one gets traded as well before it is on the clock



an even better look at it is when we add players to the numbers:

in
Cooks (1st to NO + 3rd comp for 4th)
Ealy (2nd (64) for 3rd (72) to CAR)
Allen (4th for 6th to IND)
Mingo (5th to CLE)
Van Noy (6th for 7th to DET)
Michael Williams (7th to DET)

out
Collins (3rd comp from CLE)
Derby (5th from DEN)
Harbor (7th from DET)
___

if we look at draft trade value chart (a bit of a nonsense but anyway) we can calculate that Pats lost 596 draft points in the process (actually they lost 538 while 58 are being stolen by NFL*) which is equal to #32 pick.

If we take that Cooks offsets Collins (both elite young players at respective positions), Mingo o. Derby and M Williams o. Harbor - that would mean that Patriots got Ealy, Allen and Van Noy for their #32 pick.
___

Note that Patriots didn't lose a single pick (they still have 7) . while acquiring 3 experienced, talented, productive NFL players in (or entering) their prime. All they lost is aforementioned quality of picks - and this board knows very well how small of a difference it can be between #32 and #72 or even #118 on paper (let alone in reality).

Last but not least: acquiring players through this trades enabled the Patriots to add two picks for 2018 (projected 4th and 5th round comp picks) - so they got 3 players + 2 picks for a certain loss of quality of 2017 picks (not too big IMO) .

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Great breakdown! That was really informative. It's neat to see the process in action.

 

[captain stone]

nice look at BB modus operandi.
only one assigned pick left on 2017 draft capital (3d round #96)
and a good chance this one gets traded as well before it is on the clock



an even better look at it is when we add players to the numbers:

in
Cooks (1st to NO + 3rd comp for 4th)
Ealy (2nd (64) for 3rd (72) to CAR)
Allen (4th for 6th to IND)
Mingo (5th to CLE)
Van Noy (6th for 7th to DET)
Michael Williams (7th to DET)

out
Collins (3rd comp from CLE)
Derby (5th from DEN)
Harbor (7th from DET)
___

if we look at draft trade value chart (a bit of a nonsense but anyway) we can calculate that Pats lost 596 draft points in the process (actually they lost 538 while 58 are being stolen by NFL*) which is equal to #32 pick.

If we take that Cooks offsets Collins (both elite young players at respective positions), Mingo o. Derby and M Williams o. Harbor - that would mean that Patriots got Ealy, Allen and Van Noy for their #32 pick.
___

Note that Patriots didn't lose a single pick (they still have 7) . while acquiring 3 experienced, talented, productive NFL players in (or entering) their prime. All they lost is aforementioned quality of picks - and this board knows very well how small of a difference it can be between #32 and #72 or even #118 on paper (let alone in reality).

Last but not least: acquiring players through this trades enabled the Patriots to add two picks for 2018 (projected 4th and 5th round comp picks) - so they got 3 players + 2 picks for a certain loss of quality of 2017 picks (not too big IMO) .

Trading #s 175 & 150 for Barkevious Mingo & Michael Williams were complete wastes of precious resources, as predicted.

I would've told Indy that if they didn't send us #158 instead of #200 with Dwayne Allen, then the deal is off. We're doing them a favor, after all.

And I still wouldn't have made the trade for Terry Glenn 2.0.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

And I still wouldn't have made the trade for Terry Glenn 2.0.

I think this was a tremendous trade for us. It all comes down to how we use him and I think bb comes up with some tremendous ways to get him the ball.