He actually made 1.5m last year. But they guaranteed it which would address your concerns here.
Going to address these in reverse order.
I apologize, I forgot who I was responding to. I forgot I need to spell out every little detail. Yes, he actually received only $1.5M last year, though his total compensation was $3M based on how it was accounted for. But technically sure, $1.5M in compensation in the season (I wrote calendar year, but I'm sure there'd be the inevitable response that several weeks of the season were in 2017...).
The cap hit is sunk money. It has nothing to do with the 2017 salary.
Based on your logic a higher salary would make him more likely to be cut at the final cutdown based upon staying under the cap.
Based on your earlier response, you clearly get the distinction between cap hit and salary. So your proposal seems really strange to me. It's basically play the new season for less than $100K. Does that seem realistic?
The cap hit is sunk money, but it does affect the 2017 salary because it was paid (and accounted for) as part of this upcoming season. So in any potential renegotiation, the Patriots will feel they've already paid part of that compensation (because they have).
If the Patriots think he's worth $3M, and they've already paid him $1.4M, and can convince him to sign for $1.6M, that's a win. But if they think he's a $3M player, and Dola wants $3M more, they're not going to do it.
As for the second part of that post, I've read it a few times and I think you've skipped a few steps. Yes, having a higher cost than what you proposed would make it more likely he'd be cut. But you're overlooking 2 things:
1. he will not be on the team at your proposed $1.5M (unrealistic for player), and
2. he will not be on the team with his current $7,791,668 salary cap hit (unrealistic for team)
So you're comparing the proposed $2.5M against your $1.5M figure, saying it's higher and so it increases the odds of him being cut. But that's a totally unrealistic number and Dola is not going to do it.
An option with some new money, but not ridiculously unrealistic money, would be the most viable way for Dola and the Patriots to continue the relationship.