Patriots Defensive DVOA

[PF_SU]

The newest DVOA ranking released by Football Outsiders contains an interesting little breakdown regarding the Patriots' DVOA, especially on defence. For offensive, ST and total DVOA the higher the number, the better, for defensive DVOA the lower the number the better.

Week 1-4 (no Brady): 2.8% Offensive DVOA (#12), 10.7% Defensive DVOA (#28), 3.4% ST DVOA (#8), -4.5% Total DVOA (#17)

Week 5-10 (with Brady and Gronk): 32.0% Offensive DVOA (#2), -2.7% Defensive DVOA (#13), 0.0% ST DVOA (#10), 34.7% Total DVOA (#1)

Week 11-16 (no Gronk): 16.7% Offensive DVOA (#7), -12.0% Defensive DVOA (#6), 5.1% ST DVOA (#7), 33.8% Total DVOA (#3)

These DVOA figures are already adjusted for strength of schedule with all the teams the Patriots have played since the Seattle game ranking in the bottom 10 in offensive DVOA. If the unadjusted VOA would've been applied the Patriots' defence would have a rating of -28.3% which would easily be the highest in the league for that span.

 

[luuked]

The newest DVOA ranking released by Football Outsiders contains an interesting little breakdown regarding the Patriots' DVOA, especially on defence. For offensive, ST and total DVOA the higher the number, the better, for defensive DVOA the lower the number the better.

Week 1-4 (no Brady): 2.8% Offensive DVOA (#12), 10.7% Defensive DVOA (#28), 3.4% ST DVOA (#8), -4.5% Total DVOA (#17)

Week 5-10 (with Brady and Gronk): 32.0% Offensive DVOA (#2), -2.7% Defensive DVOA (#13), 0.0% ST DVOA (#10), 34.7% Total DVOA (#1)

Week 11-16 (no Gronk): 16.7% Offensive DVOA (#7), -12.0% Defensive DVOA (#6), 5.1% ST DVOA (#7), 33.8% Total DVOA (#3)

These DVOA figures are already adjusted for strength of schedule with all the teams the Patriots have played since the Seattle game ranking in the bottom 10 in offensive DVOA. If the unadjusted VOA would've been applied the Patriots' defence would have a rating of -28.3% which would easily be the highest in the league for that span.

Fits what most people have been seeing and saying and yet I still don't think any of those advanced stats has any usefulness.

Ultimately it doesn't matter what DVOA/YPG/??? rank you have if you can consistently create favorable matchups on the field. Being flexible enough as a team to counteract whatever your opponent is trying to exploit is what's key in this league.

Apart form health or maybe 1-2 nailed drafts in a row that give you a short window where you have tons of elite talent for cheap.

 

[goheels22002]

The newest DVOA ranking released by Football Outsiders contains an interesting little breakdown regarding the Patriots' DVOA, especially on defence. For offensive, ST and total DVOA the higher the number, the better, for defensive DVOA the lower the number the better.

Week 1-4 (no Brady): 2.8% Offensive DVOA (#12), 10.7% Defensive DVOA (#28), 3.4% ST DVOA (#8), -4.5% Total DVOA (#17)

Week 5-10 (with Brady and Gronk): 32.0% Offensive DVOA (#2), -2.7% Defensive DVOA (#13), 0.0% ST DVOA (#10), 34.7% Total DVOA (#1)

Week 11-16 (no Gronk): 16.7% Offensive DVOA (#7), -12.0% Defensive DVOA (#6), 5.1% ST DVOA (#7), 33.8% Total DVOA (#3)

These DVOA figures are already adjusted for strength of schedule with all the teams the Patriots have played since the Seattle game ranking in the bottom 10 in offensive DVOA. If the unadjusted VOA would've been applied the Patriots' defence would have a rating of -28.3% which would easily be the highest in the league for that span.

Could you put this in context with maybe one other playoff team? Comparative numbers are meaningless without a benchmark. A #7 DVOA is only a concern if #1 through #6 are all playoff teams.

 

[PF_SU]

Could you put this in context with maybe one other playoff team? Comparative numbers are meaningless without a benchmark. A #7 DVOA is only a concern if #1 through #6 are all playoff teams.

Total DVOA:

#1 - Dallas Cowboys: 23.7%
#2 - New England Patriots: 23.4%
#3 - Pittsburgh Steelers: 19.2%
#4 - Atlanta Falcons: 18.1%
#5 - Philadelphia Eagles: 13.1%
#6 - Green Bay Packers: 12.4%
#7 - Kansas City Chiefs: 11.9%
#8 - Oakland Raiders: 10.6%
#9 - Washington Redskins: 10.4%
#10 - Seattle Seahawks: 9.4%

Weighed Total DVOA (slanted towards more recent performances):

#1 - New England Patriots: 31.3%
#2 - Dallas Cowboys: 28.6%
#3 - Pittsburgh Steelers: 24.3%
#4 - Atlanta Falcons: 18.5%
#5 - Kansas City Chiefs: 17.5%
#6 - Baltimore Ravens: 15.7%
#7 - Green Bay Packers: 13.8%
#8 - Washington Redskins: 13.5%
#9 - Tennessee Titans: 11.7%
#10 - New York Giants: 10.6%

Offensive DVOA:

#1 - Atlanta Falcons: 24.8%
#2 - Dallas Cowboys: 22.8%
#3 - New England Patriots: 18.1%
#4 - Washington Redskins: 17.7%
#5 - New Orleans Saints: 17.3%

Offensive Weighed DVOA:

#1 - Dallas Cowboys: 25.6%
#2 - Atlanta Falcons: 24.4%
#3 - Washington Redskins: 22.8%
#4 - New England Patriots: 20.8%
#5 - Green Bay Packers: 19.4%

Defensive DVOA:

#1 - Denver Broncos: -16.4%
#2 - New York Giants: -13.9%
#3 - Baltimore Ravens: -12.9%
#4 - Seattle Seahawks: -11.1%
#5 - Philadelphia Eagles: -10.6%
(Patriots #16 with -2.3%)

Defensive Weighed DVOA:

#1 - New York Giants: -16.6%
#2 - Denver Broncos: -15.0%
#3 - Baltimore Ravens: -11.5%
#4 - San Diego Chargers: -9.3%
#5 - Pittsburgh Steelers: -8.0%
(Patriots #6 with -7.4%)

Best DVOA since 1988:

Total: 1991 Washington Redskins 56.9%
Offensive: 2007 New England Patriots 43.5%
Defensive: 1991 Philadelphia Eagles -42.4%

The Patriots by the way have a claim to two dubious records. Best team to not win the Super Bowl (2007 with 52.9%, #2 of all time) and best team to not win a playoff game (2010 with 44.6%, #6 of all time, or if you deduct the estimates prior to 1988, #3).

Explanation to DVOA

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Good stuff.

It's frustrating that we can only read from these things what should happen on any given Sunday.

In the aggregate I am certain that DVOA - and some other stats - have tremendous power. The frustrating part is that you don't win or lose a specific game "in the aggregate."

You win or you lose... I suppose that's frustrating between games, but on Sunday that's why you watch.

 

[archstanton543]

I don't know what DVOA is.

 

[neuronet]

I'll leave it to smarter people to tell you about DVOA I don't know what that is. We never use those advanced analytics websites.

 

[Ring 6]

Any formula that has the current patriot defense rated 16th is out of touch with reality.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

I'll leave it to smarter people to tell you about DVOA I don't know what that is. We never use those advanced analytics websites.

Ernie and bill probably have their own analytics, that would be worth a fortune when they retire.

 

[venecol]

What does the V in DVOA mean that makes Dead on Arrival a football statistic?

 

[neuronet]

Ernie and bill probably have their own analytics, that would be worth a fortune when they retire.

Obviously they use the patsfans game day thread to see how the defense is doing.

 

[Tuck]

I heard the Rules Committee is considering a proposal from Jeff Fisher to use DVOA to decide who wins because it's more accurate than points.

 

[Nunchucks]

You are supposed to spell out an acronym the first time you use it so everybody understands What the faulk (WTF) you are talking about.

 

[BelichickFan]

I don't know what DVOA is.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Methods To Our Madness

 

[venecol]

You are supposed to spell out an acronym the first time you use it so everybody understands What the faulk (WTF) you are talking about.

It appears the acronym should be DAVOA for "adjusted."

 

[BlueThunder]

I heard the Rules Committee is considering a proposal from Jeff Fisher to use DVOA to decide who wins because it's more accurate than points.

LOL, I could make that a political comment about last election with a couple of changes but it's the wrong thread to do so....funny stuff....

 

[Ring 6]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Methods To Our Madness

If you read that you understand why it has little value.

 

[Haley]

I don't know what DVOA is.

I had to go look it up. Again. As I do every time someone brings up this crazy, forgettable stat.

It is "determine value over average". Which makes things a lot clearer, right? Yeah, no, it doesn't.

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation.

Whatever. I'm not too fond of stats.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Haley got to it first.

The idea is to try to control for a bunch of variables, and figure out how a team compares to the average once you've held everything else constant. You can come up with DVOA stats for every aspect of the game, but a lot depends on your assumptions - again, backed with other stats - about how to control for said variables.

But even when stats have 99% predictive value, if the next game falls into the 1%... well, that's why we talk about stats between the games, and just yell a lot during the games.

 

[Ring 6]

I had to go look it up. Again. As I do every time someone brings up this crazy, forgettable stat.

It is "determine value over average". Which makes things a lot clearer, right? Yeah, no, it doesn't.



Whatever. I'm not too fond of stats.

Basically they give a score, based upon a scale they created, to each play, ten add up all those scores and say that these scores should determine who is a better football team.
They include things such as:

Extra points are awarded for big plays, gradually increasing to three points for 10 yards (assuming those yards result in a first down), four points for 20 yards, and five points for 40 yards or more. Losing three or more yards is -1 point. Interceptions occurring on fourth down during the last two minutes of a game incur no penalty whatsoever, but all others average -6 points, with an adjustment for the length of the pass and the location of the interception (since an interception tipped at the line is more likely to produce a long return than an interception on a 40-yard pass). A fumble is worth anywhere from -1.7 to -4.0 points depending on how often a fumble in that situation is lost to the defense -- no matter who actually recovers the fumble. Red zone plays get a bonus: 20 percent for team offense, five percent for team defense, and 10 percent for individual players. There is a bonus given for a touchdown, which acknowledges that the goal line is significantly more difficult to cross than the previous 99 yards (although this bonus is nowhere near as large as the one used in fantasy football).

or this

*It should be noted that certain plays are included in DVOA for offense but not for defense. Other plays are included for both, but scored differently. This leads to separate baselines on each side of the ball. For instance

• Only four total penalties are included. Two penalties count as pass plays on both sides of the ball: intentional grounding and defensive pass interference. The other two penalties are included for offense only: false starts and delay of game. Because the inclusion of these penalties means a group of negative plays that don’t count as either passes or runs, the league averages for pass offense and run offense are higher than the league averages for pass defense and run defense.
• Aborted snaps and incomplete backwards lateral passes are only penalized on offense, not rewarded on defense.
• Adjustments for playing from behind or with a lead in the fourth quarter are different for offense and defense, as are adjustments for the final two minutes of the first half when the offense is not near field-goal range.
• Offense gets a slight penalty and defense gets a slight bonus for games indoors.

Ultimately its an attempt to take a game that isn't about statistics and make it about statistics, so the flaws are inherent.