Patriots Defensive DVOA

[kkmack617]

Passer rating is a terrible stat. Its parameters are random and make no sense.
Anything that takes results and comes up with a way to mash up the good things for positive and the bad things for negative will generally get it somewhere in the vicinity of right.
But adding together a bunch of plays out of context with the idea that you can statistically make them judge football is ridiculous.

Passer rating isn't perfect, but saying it is terrible just shows you're biased against stats in general. Despite its shortcomings, the QB's playing the best usually have the highest passer rating. The best seasons historically have been the highest rated. And passer rating differential is one of the greatest predictors of team success there is. I prefer ANY/A+ myself, but can't find a defensive version of it.

And no, not everything that awards for good and penalizes for bad will be right. QBR does just that, and it's an atrocious stat, especially when compared to passer rating.

You're taking the "stats can't quantify everything" argument to the extreme. We know yards allowed is a meaningless stat because better teams go into prevent. We know passer ratings from different eras can't be compared directly because of rule changes. Then there are the smaller things most don't see, like that fact that a part of why Aaron Rodgers has such a great passer rating is that he won't take a chance and make a high risk high reward throw when his team is getting beat, and has a horrible win/loss record in those games as a result. Always a grain of salt. Stats are just tools, but some do have more value than others.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

It is a crap thing. It places value on the steps to get to a result over the result. If you are the defense that allowed the fewest points per game, by over 2 a game, you are not the 16th most effective defense. You are only that if someone places more value on things that do not deserve them.
Next we will hear how Pro Football Focus is like the bible.

You are working really hard to prove the importance of stats. To look at ppg allowed in a vacuum is just as ludicrous as looking at any stat without context. What DVOA and others like it is use quantitative controls for why the raw stats are as they are.

Football outsiders is also 100% for fans to understand the complexity of football. They aren't attempting to convince BB or others that they should do this or that, but what currently is.

To you that s meaningless, for others it is interesting. Not sure why you feel it necessary for others to have your same point of view.

 

[BobDigital]

Here are some facts and stats and then i will tell you my conclusion

#1 To this point the pats have faced the easiest defensive schedule in the NFL their opponents on average score 21.07PPG (dead last). Also they were fortunate to not face Ben Roethlisberger as well

#2 The Pats have the #1 PPG defense 15.73 PPG

#3 They have been even better the last 6 games surrendering 12.17 PPG and IMO the last 4 games have looked particularly good.

So yes the Pats have played the easiest defensive schedule in the NFL. However they have done what a good D should do when facing such a schedule and beat up on it. They have held offenses which average 21.07PPG to 15.73PPG (5.34PPG less which is the 4th best point differential in the NFL defensively when looking at strength of schedule for offenses faced).

Also particularly the last 4 games they have shut teams out. 1 let down at the end of a Rams blowout and a few STs gaffs away from not allowing any TDs in the last 4 games. That is insane I don't care who you play.

I don't think they are the best D in the NFL but they have been more than good enough for me. If they play the way they played these last 4 games I will take that every game.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

If DVOA comes at the end of the entire season of what use is it? To compare with teams from previous years? Yet those teams wouldn't necessarily be the same due to personnel changes and injuries.

Seems like a complete waste of time.

Well I hate to say it... but really, you can only tell what's likely to happen based on what you know.

I think it's fun for folks to talk stats, and it's extremely valuable to look at what the other team's tendencies are, etc. It's even better if you catch something on film that indicates that when [enemy QB] is going to wait for the long-developing play he sets his feet consistently offset by 3 degrees in their orientation... or whatever. Or, if you see that a safety ALWAYS does X when he is going to blitz... whatever the case may be. In other words, stats play into prep, but the "eye test" does too.

Mainly for us as fans, yes, it's a waste of time. That's what we do for a week at a time, and that's during the season

I really think you can quantify some things, so stats aren't meaningless. On the other hand, your best guy can go out and lay an egg when it's really important that he doesn't. OR, your whole team can play badly in that particular game. Or, your coaching might not prepare you for what the other team brings sufficiently to unleash the talent on YOUR team optimally... whatever. Stats are indicative but not determinative.

Therefore, you and me get to have FUN watching the games, and Vegas stays in business.

 

[everlong]

Regarding the Patriots facing inferior offensive talent. Their PA is 15.73 but their opponents average 21.07 for a +5.34.

The top 6 in points against and their opponents average and the +/-

NE 15.73, 21.07, +5.34
Sea 17.93, 23.83, +5.89
NYG 18.27, 22.88, +4.62
DAL 18.60, 21.76, +3.16
KC 18.93, 24.40, +5.47
DEN 19.40, 24.87, +5.47

After the top 6 nobody is over a +3.42. If the Pats played a stronger set of offensive teams it's plausible they wouldn't lead the league in PPG but clearly they're a top 5 defense.