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Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PF_SU, Dec 28, 2016.

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  1. PF_SU

    PF_SU Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    The newest DVOA ranking released by Football Outsiders contains an interesting little breakdown regarding the Patriots' DVOA, especially on defence. For offensive, ST and total DVOA the higher the number, the better, for defensive DVOA the lower the number the better.

    Week 1-4 (no Brady): 2.8% Offensive DVOA (#12), 10.7% Defensive DVOA (#28), 3.4% ST DVOA (#8), -4.5% Total DVOA (#17)

    Week 5-10 (with Brady and Gronk): 32.0% Offensive DVOA (#2), -2.7% Defensive DVOA (#13), 0.0% ST DVOA (#10), 34.7% Total DVOA (#1)

    Week 11-16 (no Gronk): 16.7% Offensive DVOA (#7), -12.0% Defensive DVOA (#6), 5.1% ST DVOA (#7), 33.8% Total DVOA (#3)

    These DVOA figures are already adjusted for strength of schedule with all the teams the Patriots have played since the Seattle game ranking in the bottom 10 in offensive DVOA. If the unadjusted VOA would've been applied the Patriots' defence would have a rating of -28.3% which would easily be the highest in the league for that span.
     
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  2. luuked

    luuked Pro Bowl Player

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    Fits what most people have been seeing and saying and yet I still don't think any of those advanced stats has any usefulness.

    Ultimately it doesn't matter what DVOA/YPG/??? rank you have if you can consistently create favorable matchups on the field. Being flexible enough as a team to counteract whatever your opponent is trying to exploit is what's key in this league.

    Apart form health or maybe 1-2 nailed drafts in a row that give you a short window where you have tons of elite talent for cheap.
     
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  3. goheels22002

    goheels22002 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Could you put this in context with maybe one other playoff team? Comparative numbers are meaningless without a benchmark. A #7 DVOA is only a concern if #1 through #6 are all playoff teams.
     
  4. PF_SU

    PF_SU Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Total DVOA:

    #1 - Dallas Cowboys: 23.7%
    #2 - New England Patriots: 23.4%
    #3 - Pittsburgh Steelers: 19.2%
    #4 - Atlanta Falcons: 18.1%
    #5 - Philadelphia Eagles: 13.1%
    #6 - Green Bay Packers: 12.4%
    #7 - Kansas City Chiefs: 11.9%
    #8 - Oakland Raiders: 10.6%
    #9 - Washington Redskins: 10.4%
    #10 - Seattle Seahawks: 9.4%

    Weighed Total DVOA (slanted towards more recent performances):

    #1 - New England Patriots: 31.3%
    #2 - Dallas Cowboys: 28.6%
    #3 - Pittsburgh Steelers: 24.3%
    #4 - Atlanta Falcons: 18.5%
    #5 - Kansas City Chiefs: 17.5%
    #6 - Baltimore Ravens: 15.7%
    #7 - Green Bay Packers: 13.8%
    #8 - Washington Redskins: 13.5%
    #9 - Tennessee Titans: 11.7%
    #10 - New York Giants: 10.6%

    Offensive DVOA:

    #1 - Atlanta Falcons: 24.8%
    #2 - Dallas Cowboys: 22.8%
    #3 - New England Patriots: 18.1%
    #4 - Washington Redskins: 17.7%
    #5 - New Orleans Saints: 17.3%

    Offensive Weighed DVOA:

    #1 - Dallas Cowboys: 25.6%
    #2 - Atlanta Falcons: 24.4%
    #3 - Washington Redskins: 22.8%
    #4 - New England Patriots: 20.8%
    #5 - Green Bay Packers: 19.4%

    Defensive DVOA:

    #1 - Denver Broncos: -16.4%
    #2 - New York Giants: -13.9%
    #3 - Baltimore Ravens: -12.9%
    #4 - Seattle Seahawks: -11.1%
    #5 - Philadelphia Eagles: -10.6%
    (Patriots #16 with -2.3%)

    Defensive Weighed DVOA:

    #1 - New York Giants: -16.6%
    #2 - Denver Broncos: -15.0%
    #3 - Baltimore Ravens: -11.5%
    #4 - San Diego Chargers: -9.3%
    #5 - Pittsburgh Steelers: -8.0%
    (Patriots #6 with -7.4%)

    Best DVOA since 1988:

    Total: 1991 Washington Redskins 56.9%
    Offensive: 2007 New England Patriots 43.5%
    Defensive: 1991 Philadelphia Eagles -42.4%

    The Patriots by the way have a claim to two dubious records. Best team to not win the Super Bowl (2007 with 52.9%, #2 of all time) and best team to not win a playoff game (2010 with 44.6%, #6 of all time, or if you deduct the estimates prior to 1988, #3).

    Explanation to DVOA
     
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    Last edited: Dec 28, 2016
  5. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Good stuff.

    It's frustrating that we can only read from these things what should happen on any given Sunday.

    In the aggregate I am certain that DVOA - and some other stats - have tremendous power. The frustrating part is that you don't win or lose a specific game "in the aggregate."

    You win or you lose... I suppose that's frustrating between games, but on Sunday that's why you watch.
     
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  6. archstanton543

    archstanton543 In the Starting Line-Up

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    I don't know what DVOA is.
     
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  7. neuronet

    neuronet Homer Little PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'll leave it to smarter people to tell you about DVOA I don't know what that is. We never use those advanced analytics websites.
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Any formula that has the current patriot defense rated 16th is out of touch with reality.
     
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  9. Pat the Pats Fan

    Pat the Pats Fan Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Ernie and bill probably have their own analytics, that would be worth a fortune when they retire.
     
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  10. venecol

    venecol The FRG has a little **** PatsFans.com Supporter

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    What does the V in DVOA mean that makes Dead on Arrival a football statistic?
     
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  11. neuronet

    neuronet Homer Little PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Obviously they use the patsfans game day thread to see how the defense is doing.
     
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  12. Tuck

    Tuck Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    I heard the Rules Committee is considering a proposal from Jeff Fisher to use DVOA to decide who wins because it's more accurate than points.
     
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  13. Nunchucks

    Nunchucks Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    You are supposed to spell out an acronym the first time you use it so everybody understands What the faulk (WTF) you are talking about.
     
  14. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan TB12, BB = G.O.A.T.s PatsFans.com Supporter

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  15. venecol

    venecol The FRG has a little **** PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It appears the acronym should be DAVOA for "adjusted."
     
  16. BlueThunder

    BlueThunder PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly Picks Winner

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    LOL, I could make that a political comment about last election with a couple of changes but it's the wrong thread to do so....funny stuff.... ;)
     
  17. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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  18. Haley

    Haley In the Starting Line-Up

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    I had to go look it up. Again. As I do every time someone brings up this crazy, forgettable stat.

    It is "determine value over average". Which makes things a lot clearer, right? Yeah, no, it doesn't.

    Whatever. I'm not too fond of stats.
     
  19. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Haley got to it first.

    The idea is to try to control for a bunch of variables, and figure out how a team compares to the average once you've held everything else constant. You can come up with DVOA stats for every aspect of the game, but a lot depends on your assumptions - again, backed with other stats - about how to control for said variables.

    But even when stats have 99% predictive value, if the next game falls into the 1%... well, that's why we talk about stats between the games, and just yell a lot during the games.
     
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  20. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Basically they give a score, based upon a scale they created, to each play, ten add up all those scores and say that these scores should determine who is a better football team.
    They include things such as:

    or this
    Ultimately its an attempt to take a game that isn't about statistics and make it about statistics, so the flaws are inherent.
     
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