So, @RapSheet tells us Julian Edelman could be worth $7M/year on the open market

[Brady6]

When Gronk played Edelman averaged 5/52
When Gronk didn't play Edelman averaged 7.7/77

In other words Edelman produced 50% more when Gronk wasn't on the field.

That is more of a correlation of the team attempting to work Amendola back into that #1 slot in the games against Miami, Pittsburg, Carolina, and the first half against Denver. Take a look at his performances in the games with Gronkowski was involved, 2 of his 4 games with 100+ yards came with Gronkowski on the field.

• Week 7 (Amendola was out with a concussion) – 5 catches, 44 yards
• Week 12 (the moved Edelman to #1 and Amendola to #3 at halftime) – 9 catches, 110 yards, 2 touchdowns
• Week 13 – 9 catches, 101 yards
• Week 14 – 6 catches, 64 yards

Look at Edelman’s involvement in those games –
Dolphins – 2 targets
Steelers – 4 targets
Panthers – 4 targets

10 balls thrown his way compared to Amendola who had 17 over those same games. Obviously the team wanted to try and work their $30,000,000 offseason WR signing into the offense so they went to the depth chart that was in place prior to Amendola’s injury in week 1. They determined trialing 24-0 at halftime to the Broncos and having thrown 5 ball to Amendola resulting in 2 catches for 13 yards that it was best to move to Edelman.

By Mike Reiss | ESPNBoston.com
\Thompkins played 41 of his 44 snaps in the second half. Edelman was the primary No. 2 receiver, with Amendola the No. 3.

 

[Ring 6]

Without any doubt.
Brady wants him back.
Edelman is the only reliable receiver he has.

Then we disagree, which is fine.
Brady has said, over and over and over that he wants all of his receivers back, but he is not the guy to make contract and roster decisions.

I would be fine with Edelman as part of the 'other guys' but I would not allot one of my top 10 spots in this example to a player of his caliber.

 

[Deus Irae]

I can't understand those who want Decker on this team. The last thing this team needs is a soft/finesse receiver who disappears in big games.

Decker had 5 catches in the AFCCG, and he averaged over 14 ypc in that game. How is that disappearing in a big game?

 

[FourierSeries]

Decker had 5 catches in the AFCCG, and he averaged over 14 ypc in that game. How is that disappearing in a big game?

I suppose Peyton Manning should be lauded for his prowess in big games given his 400+ yard performance against a depleted & under prepared NE defense. That's the problem with looking at just one game. 5 receptions and 73 yards is good, but not ground breaking by any means. Especially when you consider the opponent.

How does he do against teams with physical corners? He typically gets manhandled. Look at all of his performances against SD. Or against Seattle in the SB. Heck, he was even manhandled by Logan Ryan in the week 12 game.

 

[Deus Irae]

I suppose Peyton Manning should be lauded for his prowess in big games given his 400+ yard performance against a depleted & under prepared NE defense. That's the problem with looking at just one game. 5 receptions and 73 yards is good, but not ground breaking by any means. Especially when you consider the opponent.

How does he do against teams with physical corners? He typically gets manhandled. Look at all of his performances against SD. Or against Seattle in the SB. Heck, he was even manhandled by Logan Ryan in the week 12 game.

It was one game, against the guy who's considered by many to be the best CB in the game right now. I know people around here like to make statements based upon what happened 0.000001 seconds ago, but come on. Against a physical Ravens team last year in the AFCCG, Decker had 5 for 84. I'm not sure games get much bigger than that.

 

[FourierSeries]

It was one game, against the guy who's considered by many to be the best CB in the game right now. I know people around here like to make statements based upon what happened 0.000001 seconds ago, but come on. Against a physical Ravens team last year in the AFCCG, Decker had 5 for 84. I'm not sure games get much bigger than that.

That Baltimore game was in the Divisional round. Anyways, he's played 4 playoff games in his career. Two have been decent, and the other two have been atrocious. Which supports my statement that he has a tendency to disappear in big games. He also has yet to record a TD in the postseason.

Decker is a soft player who has always struggled against physical corners. We've seen many examples of this throughout his career, and many Broncos fans would agree.

 

[patsderoer]

I would be fine with Edelman as part of the 'other guys' but I would not allot one of my top 10 spots in this example to a player of his caliber.

A player of his caliber? He was 4th in receptions in the entire NFL. That is not good enough? How many drives did Edelman keep alive? The Patriots would've struggled to make the playoffs without him. What guarantee is there that a FA WR will perform like him?

 

[JackBauer]

A player of his caliber? He was 4th in receptions in the entire NFL.

I would argue this was out of necessity only.

 

[Deus Irae]

That Baltimore game was in the Divisional round.

Excuse me for that error. It doesn't mean that the game wasn't a big game, though.

Anyways, he's played 4 playoff games in his career. Two have been decent, and the other two have been atrocious. Which supports my statement that he has a tendency to disappear in big games. He also has yet to record a TD in the postseason.

You're just looking at stats, right? Against SD, the Broncos used Welker to diffuse the pass rush, and J. Thomas had a big day against the safeties. Decker was the 4th option in the passing offense because of the way the Broncos attacked the Chargers. That's how the Broncos game planned all 3 games against the Chargers (with Moreno and Caldwell combining to try taking the Welker role in the second regular season game). D. Thomas is the Broncos WR1, and the only weapon consistently targeted in the same role game after game. Welker is the Broncos short/outlet WR, and WR2. Decker is the middle man and WR3, although his number is called more or less than Welker's depending upon the opponent and the game plan. J. Thomas is the TE.

You're blaming Decker for game planning.

Decker is a soft player who has always struggled against physical corners. We've seen many examples of this throughout his career, and many Broncos fans would agree.

Saying he's soft, and saying he's disappearing in big games, are two very different things. He had 5 and 8 catches in the big games against the Chiefs. The Seahawks and Patriots legitimately limited him this past season, but nobody else did.

 

[hwc]

As we head into the offseason and free agency, some comment from Pat Kirwin yesterday may help. He was commenting based on the salary cap, the number of free agents, and the depth of the draft class with 100 underclassment.

Specifically, he said that a LOT of veterans are going to be asked to take a pay cut his offseason and that the smart players/agents are going to take the deal and be happy to have a job. The trend is towards young/cheap players and there are going to be a lot of veterans and free agents without a chair when the music stops.

In other words, free agent contracts will continue on the trajectory started last year: down.

I have no idea what that means for Edelman, except that it darn sure doesn't mean $7 million a year. Furthermore, look a the loser franchises who even play in the big dollar WR free agent game. That's such a stupid play that you can figure any owner who would sign off on that is i love with a prototypical "trophy wife" wide receiver --- you know, like Dez Bryant. Edelman wouldn't even be on the radar screen of the idiot owners like that...

 

[PatsFan2]

"Could" means it could happen some of you were saying Edelman is not worth Armendola's $$$. So which is it Patsfans? My point the Ball is in Edelman's court he can get what he wants and not what the Patriots think he's worth. Edelman is a dual threat Player a real returner and a emmerging WR I love his upside going foward. Edelman is worth slightly above what Armendola is making if anybody here thinks he's worth less Tom Brady doesn't agree with you.:snob:

 

[PatsFan2]

Decker had 5 catches in the AFCCG, and he averaged over 14 ypc in that game. How is that disappearing in a big game?

That was against our Defense that doesn't count.:bricks:

 

[Deus Irae]

That was against our Defense that doesn't count.:bricks:

No, it was against the Ravens. I mistakenly called it the AFCCG instead of the divisional game.

 

[PatsFan2]

To all the Edelman detractors please remember Brady Cannot throw it and catch it himself.:nono2:

 

[patsderoer]

I would argue this was out of necessity only.

I see that you forgot to answer the last question on that post. Why am I not surprised.

Out of necessity or not, he produced. He can do it again. He knows the system very well. Brady trusts him. There is no guarantee that a FA will produce like him.

And many times it was not out of necessity, it was out of desperation. He was the only one to trust. Gronk was down, DA was injured, the rookies were dropping passes or were dissapearing. If the situation repeats, Brady knows he has a reliable receiver. If they pay a FA, and he pulls a Stinko, well then.

 

[BelichicksHoodie]

A 7 million a year cap figure is preposterous to even suggest, nobody will be giving Edelman 7 million a year annually. A contract similar to Danny Amendola? Now that's a more realistic proposition in my opinion. The receiver market is soft currently, this year draft is absolutely loaded with big time receiving prospects and I think those receiver needy teams are more than likely going to hedge their bets in that pool of talent opposed to dipping their hands into the free agent pool.

 

[Huckleberry1]

As we head into the offseason and free agency, some comment from Pat Kirwin yesterday may help. He was commenting based on the salary cap, the number of free agents, and the depth of the draft class with 100 underclassment.

Specifically, he said that a LOT of veterans are going to be asked to take a pay cut his offseason and that the smart players/agents are going to take the deal and be happy to have a job. The trend is towards young/cheap players and there are going to be a lot of veterans and free agents without a chair when the music stops.

In other words, free agent contracts will continue on the trajectory started last year: down.

I have no idea what that means for Edelman, except that it darn sure doesn't mean $7 million a year. Furthermore, look a the loser franchises who even play in the big dollar WR free agent game. That's such a stupid play that you can figure any owner who would sign off on that is i love with a prototypical "trophy wife" wide receiver --- you know, like Dez Bryant. Edelman wouldn't even be on the radar screen of the idiot owners like that...

I think this is really team dependent, some have a ton of money to spend, others very little, and some are pretty much screwed. And as for overpaying it happens every year and could happen for Edelman if the right team bites. Overall however i think you are right when it comes to players 30 and over, as we saw last offseason they no longer command big contracts regardless of how good they are, even if there are a few exceptions (Manning a couple of years ago). The veteran corner market should be really good and they aren't going to get the kind of money they once did, and the same can be said of other positions as well. the big money will go to the star players hitting their 2nd contracts, Alex Mack as an example, but i think that even guys like Talib, who aren't quite 30 but are considered top free agents are going to get significantly less than what they thought they were going to get. free agency is a great place to be if you are still under 28, but for anyone 30 or over it has become a baron wasteland.

Ultimately I expect Edelman to get a deal similar to what Amendola got, but doubt NE will be the ones who give it to him. Houston, Cleveland, SD possibly and a few more will be in the market for a slot guy with his abilities and I don't expect him back even though i would love to see him return. I think the patriots see him as replaceable even if we don't.

 

[JackBauer]

I see that you forgot to answer the last question on that post. Why am I not surprised.

I didn't forget; I chose not to answer, because I figured it self-evident that there is no guarantee.

Out of necessity or not, he produced. He can do it again. He knows the system very well. Brady trusts him. There is no guarantee that a FA will produce like him.

No kidding. The question isn't whether he's reliable. The question is whether a.) he's worth the money he'll be asking for and b.) whether it's worth giving another long-term deal to a guy who heretofore could not stay on the field, thus giving us two injury prone wideouts signed to decent money.

And many times it was not out of necessity, it was out of desperation. He was the only one to trust. Gronk was down, DA was injured, the rookies were dropping passes or were dissapearing. If the situation repeats, Brady knows he has a reliable receiver. If they pay a FA, and he pulls a Stinko, well then.

Distinction without a difference.

 

[Deus Irae]

A 7 million a year cap figure is preposterous to even suggest, nobody will be giving Edelman 7 million a year annually. A contract similar to Danny Amendola? Now that's a more realistic proposition in my opinion. The receiver market is soft currently, this year draft is absolutely loaded with big time receiving prospects and I think those receiver needy teams are more than likely going to hedge their bets in that pool of talent opposed to dipping their hands into the free agent pool.

:welcome:


Here's a question I just thought about, given the way this thread's gone. If you're Denver, why wouldn't you pay Edelman $6m-$7m instead of paying Decker $8m-$9m?

 

[Deus Irae]

I see that you forgot to answer the last question on that post. Why am I not surprised.

Out of necessity or not, he produced. He can do it again. He knows the system very well. Brady trusts him. There is no guarantee that a FA will produce like him.

And many times it was not out of necessity, it was out of desperation. He was the only one to trust. Gronk was down, DA was injured, the rookies were dropping passes or were dissapearing. If the situation repeats, Brady knows he has a reliable receiver. If they pay a FA, and he pulls a Stinko, well then.

The Patriots were so concerned about Brady's feelings that they cut loose from his all-time Binkie even after TFB had made a huge adjustment to his contract.