So, @RapSheet tells us Julian Edelman could be worth $7M/year on the open market

[Drake&BarmoreFTW]

I'm just wondering how the Seahawks would have fared without Wagner, mebane, McDaniel, giacomini, and miller.

The reality is that they had everyone for the playoffs.......sometimes things just work out well

Except for Browner. But point taken.

 

[mgteich]

So, we paid too much for Amendola, not predicting that we would get injured. Therefore, anyone we get who produced more that Amendola would have to receive more. Utter nonsense!

How much did we pay Wilfork last year? $7M? $8M Surely we should pay him or his replacement MORE since we expect this year's NT to perform better than Wilfork did last year.

I am not YET saying that Edelman isn't worth an AAV of $7M. That is another argument. I am merely saying that what we offered an older player that we had decide to replace is irrelevant. I am also saying that what we offered for a player who was injured is also irrelevant.

The OPEN question is a relatively straightforward one. How much is Edelman worth to the patriots? Is one year of solid performance (and a long injury history) make him worthy of $7M a year? Is Edelman worth of $12M or so guaranteed money over the next two years?

How many players SHOULD we take this extreme risk with: for Edelman? for Tailb? for Wilfork?

 

[supafly]

I am not YET saying that Edelman isn't worth an AAV of $7M.

You may not be saying that, but I sure as hell am.

If another team wants to pay 7m AAV for Julian Edelman, then good luck to them. They'll be getting a good young player with both talent and more room to grow, but they'll also be overspending to do so.

I'm very interested for March 11th to come, so we can put this debate to rest once and for all. I will be surprised if Edelman gets more than 5m AAV myself.

 

[mgteich]

OK, for the record, I do not think that we should take the $7M AAV hit for Edelman, Talib or Wilfork, except perhaps for Talib if the contract has sufficient protections for the team.

You may not be saying that, but I sure as hell am.

If another team wants to pay 7m AAV for Julian Edelman, then good luck to them. They'll be getting a good young player with both talent and more room to grow, but they'll also be overspending to do so.

I'm very interested for March 11th to come, so we can put this debate to rest once and for all. I will be surprised if Edelman gets more than 5m AAV myself.

 

[supafly]

I have a really hard time understanding the logic behind people suggesting Edelman is only worth $3-$4 mil. The Broncos paid a 32 year old Welker $6 mil, in 2012 we franchised a 31 year old Welker at $9.5 mil, and last season we paid Amendola $5.7 mil. Why is Edelman worth so little in comparison?

The argument is simple.

So, you feel comfortable comparing Julian Edelman to an all-pro at the top of his position of slot receivers on an every year basis?

Welker had SIX seasons of 100+ catches, and still only received 6m a year on average. The argument is that if Welker is worth 6m, how does that make a player who's done it once (and been injured in the other 3-4 years) worth the same kind of money? Just because one team overpaid (Patriots) for a slot receiver last year to continue their quicker, timing route options in the short area doesn't mean that it's now suddenly the standard. Perhaps N.England only wanted Amendola on a trial basis for the first couple/few years before deciding to pay him the bigger money, and didn't want to risk losing out on both Welker/Amendola to another team?

Actually, ALL of the major 3 slot receivers from last free agency period were overpaid by their teams, in the sense of Welker, Amendola, and Cruz. Does that mean that GMs are going to be more leery or even more willing to open their checkbooks? Only time will tell, but those who have an opinion on Edelman's worth being less than Welker's certainly have a reasonable point.

People took a shot with Amendola after a couple/few years of sporadic production and "flashes"...perhaps we see the same with Edelman, perhaps not. Some may feel that he needs to prove himself more than one season with no other receiving options, not to mention the possibility of going to a whole new system in an attempt of doing so.

 

[supafly]

OK, for the record, I do not think that we should take the $7M AAV hit for Edelman, Talib or Wilfork, except perhaps for Talib if the contract has sufficient protections for the team.

Agreed.

From a meaningless fan perspective (mine), I would be okay with giving Talib the same kind of pact that we did with Bodden in 2009. I believe that was 4/22 with 10 million guaranteed.

I think that's the kind of pact that allows us to still live to see another day even if Talib doesn't work out due to injury after a year or two, such as Bodden. It's not an ideal situation of course, but it's not nearly as bad as something like 4/30 with 15 guaranteed, either.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Another important question that we don't know the answer to is how much he'll be swayed by money. Winning definitely seems important to him, so I think if the Patriots make what he sees as a fair offer, he'll take it.

 

[mgteich]

IMHO, only two patriots have not been swayed by the money, Bruschi and Brady.

Make no mistake, I do not mean that players simply take the highest offer. There are other considerations.

For example, many players might restrict their job search only to teams that have a chance at the Super Bowl, or who are in theAFC, or who are in the South.

I do NOT expect players to give discounts to the patriots.

Of course, one could say that what is a "fair offer" is determined by the marketplace.

Another important question that we don't know the answer to is how much he'll be swayed by money. Winning definitely seems important to him, so I think if the Patriots make what he sees as a fair offer, he'll take it.

 

[50-yard-line]

Another important question that we don't know the answer to is how much he'll be swayed by money. Winning definitely seems important to him, so I think if the Patriots make what he sees as a fair offer, he'll take it.

Edelman HAS to go for the money at this point. He's an oft-injured, small, 27-year-old slot receiver who takes a beating. He's got a small window.

He owes it to himself and his family to scrape every dollar and he'd be a fool not to. If there are two comparable offers, I expect he'd stay with New England. But if a team comes in a million AAV higher, then he really owes it to his family to take it.

I know I'll cheer for him wherever he goes.

 

[50-yard-line]

IMHO, only two patriots have not been swayed by the money, Bruschi and Brady.

Make no mistake, I do not mean that players simply take the highest offer. There are other considerations.

For example, many players might restrict their job search only to teams that have a chance at the Super Bowl, or who are in theAFC, or who are in the South.

I do NOT expect players to give discounts to the patriots.

Of course, one could say that what is a "fair offer" is determined by the marketplace.

I don't think you can put Brady in the mix. He's done quite fine, and his extension is more for longevity and guaranteed money...plus, he's got a somewhat wealthy spouse, I hear.

A guy like Edelman is NOT rich. It sounds like a lot more money than it really is, after agents swoop in and taxes are paid and all that. It's one thing for an already-wealthy guy like Seymore to take a discount - a guy like Edelman needs to leap at the $$$$$$.

 

[RIpats88]

I dont see any team offering Edelman 7million$ a year. and if they do, then I would say good luck to edelman and we should go out and use that money on a sydney rice or Maclin. a bigger receiver who can compliment Dobson/Amendola.

BUT I just dont see any team willing to offer Edelman that, and I think Edelman knows that there is no guarantee he will succeed in another system. Right now this system is perfect for him, and he has a HOF QB who loves throwing to him.

But hey if cleveland or Houston or Minnesota wants to pay him 7million$ then all the more power to him.

maybe Amendola has his first healthy year(like edelman did last year, remember his first) and puts up a 100+catch 1000+ yard season. because he has the ability to do so

 

[Love The Drake]

There are many factors to look at here and its not a easy answer or a exact formula.
On top of that nobody can predict the future In these kind of things. So let's look at both sides to the great Edelman debate.
1. Production - He performed extremely well in a contract year and at times was the guy who put the team on his back.

2. Team leader - Players on both sides of the ball set he set the tone in practice with his competive nature throwkm punches challengimg the defense lighting a fire under their but.

3. Rapport with Brady - This season he clearly had a vulcsn mind connection with number 12 and Tom is running out of familiar playmakers this can not be understated.

Reasons we should not make the investment.
1. Injury history - Players who play with such raw ambition such as Minitron get banged up and he hasn't proven to be mr Ironman as much as he wants to be.

2. Market overvalues him - Belichick has been around Julian for long enough to know if he is a elite player after having him count for so little on the cap for so long can Bill the value shopper Accept his drastic pay raise and The trickle down affect on the rest of the roster.

3. Ceiling - Have we seen his best are we going to pay him elite money only to see him fall back to just good enough to be a number 4.

4.Difference makers - Will paying Jules stop us from having a top tier secondary or a difference maker on the defensive line? What position is most important to the team in the current and long run.

5. Next man up? - Do we already have a player with the same career path as Jules on the roster can Boyce, Moe, Mcguffie replace the production without the offense being affected with the loss of 11?
This to me is the biggest question we know a healthy Admendola can be a difference maker. What about our young guys why pay a man 7 plus million a year when you have 3 guys on the roster barely accounting for a third of that this year who are younger and all have upside.
At the end of the day I'd love Minitron to remain a Pat but not at the expense of a top D and bettering the team on offensive line.

 

[Brady6]

The argument is simple.

So, you feel comfortable comparing Julian Edelman to an all-pro at the top of his position of slot receivers on an every year basis?

I feel comfortable comparing Welker at age 31 when we tagged him and at 32 when the Broncos signed him for $6m.

The NFL is a performance-based industry, tenure and historical performance is secondary.

Welker had SIX seasons of 100+ catches, and still only received 6m a year on average. The argument is that if Welker is worth 6m, how does that make a player who's done it once (and been injured in the other 3-4 years) worth the same kind of money? Just because one team overpaid (Patriots) for a slot receiver last year to continue their quicker, timing route options in the short area doesn't mean that it's now suddenly the standard. Perhaps N.England only wanted Amendola on a trial basis for the first couple/few years before deciding to pay him the bigger money, and didn't want to risk losing out on both Welker/Amendola to another team?

I never said Edelman was worth what we paid Welker in 2012, I look at it as of today, 2/6/14 is Edelman worth:
• $1,300,000 more annually than Danny Amendola was worth when he signed last March
• $2,500,000 less annually than we paid a 31 year old Wes Welker in 2012

Edelman’s injury history is slightly exaggerated, Edelman has been on injured reserve one time in his career, and that was last season with a broken foot.

• 2009 – 11 games
• 2010 – 15 games
• 2011 – 13 games
• 2012 – 9 games
• 2013 – 16 games

He missed a total of 16 regular season games in 5 seasons, 7 of them occurred in 2012, and 5 occurred in his rookie season which was not all injury related. Keep in mind Edelman was a backend roster player for his first 4 seasons so he was likely sat with an injury a lot quicker than if he was an essential player.

Actually, ALL of the major 3 slot receivers from last free agency period were overpaid by their teams, in the sense of Welker, Amendola, and Cruz. Does that mean that GMs are going to be more leery or even more willing to open their checkbooks? Only time will tell, but those who have an opinion on Edelman's worth being less than Welker's certainly have a reasonable point.

Welker was worth $6,000,000 to the Broncos in my opinion, he had a productive interrupted by the concussions, but if you look at the 10 games before he suffered his first concussion against the Chiefs he had – 61 catch on 87 targets for 681 yards, and 9 touchdowns. Over a full season, that is 97 catches, 1090 yards, and 15 touchdowns.

Cruz at the time he signed his extension was a player who had compiled 168 catches, 2628 yards, and 19 touchdowns in his previous 2 season along with scoring a touchdown in the 2011 SB that helped the Giants win a championship, I am not sure what led to his less impressive 2013 but the player that signed the extension probably was worth what they paid.

The market is set for slot WRs and that is just the way it is, Edelman’s agent is going to command a payday in the same neighborhood as Amendola, Welker and Cruz received last season.

People took a shot with Amendola after a couple/few years of sporadic production and "flashes"...perhaps we see the same with Edelman, perhaps not. Some may feel that he needs to prove himself more than one season with no other receiving options, not to mention the possibility of going to a whole new system in an attempt of doing so.

I don’t really want to make this about Amendola, he is relevant only in the contract comparison discussion.

 

[Brady6]

So, we paid too much for Amendola, not predicting that we would get injured. Therefore, anyone we get who produced more that Amendola would have to receive more. Utter nonsense!

Not predicting he was going to be injured, really we are still leaning on that nonsense. Well if I was a betting man, I would look at Amendola missing 35% of his career games due to injury and say that the likelihood of an injury was actually very high and predicted it.

I don’t know what type of industry you work in or worked in but just about everyone has the same process for determining value, and the most recent comparable sales, contracts, purchases, investments, etc. are the #1 way to determine value, so if it is utter nonsense than the entire economics system is built on that same utter nonsense.

This article will outline how value of players is determined.

http://digitalcommons.bryant.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1007&context=honors_mathematics

How much did we pay Wilfork last year? $7M? $8M Surely we should pay him or his replacement MORE since we expect this year's NT to perform better than Wilfork did last year.

What does that have to do with signing a free agent?

Was Wilfork not worth his contract at the time signed, because all that matters is the value at the time of the deal, not the MG hindsight review?

I am not YET saying that Edelman isn't worth an AAV of $7M. That is another argument. I am merely saying that what we offered an older player that we had decide to replace is irrelevant. I am also saying that what we offered for a player who was injured is also irrelevant.

I know that some think that the agent and Belichick go into a room and throw darts at contracts until they hit the one they like but it is actually a lot different. Edelman’s agent is going to do a market analysis at which time he is going to input the most recent signings of players who are comparable. Those players include Danny Amendola, Wes Welker, Victor Cruz, Percy Harvin and any others that have signed in the past 2-3 years. He will then take that data, present it along with Edelman’s performance compared to theirs, and ask for a contract within that range. Saying we, overpaid Amendola is not going to have Edelman and his agent saying oh ok well we do not want you to do that again, and this ridiculous sentiment that the slot is a system is going to be countered with well if it is system why didn’t Amendola perform. The he had a hurt groin will be countered by well he will be healthy in 2014 so why are you negotiating with us now; my client is looking for a starting job.

The OPEN question is a relatively straightforward one. How much is Edelman worth to the patriots? Is one year of solid performance (and a long injury history) make him worthy of $7M a year? Is Edelman worth of $12M or so guaranteed money over the next two years?

It is not that straight forward, because honestly, Edelman probably is not worth $7,000,000 per season but he is worth $1,300,000 more than we paid Amendola in 2013 and he is worth $2,500,000 less than we paid Welker in 2012.

I don’t see how we let the player who had 16 catches for 173 yards and a touchdown in our 2 playoff games walk and feel comfortable turning that role over to a player who had 3 catches during that period.

I think people do not understand is that when Amendola returned against Dolphins, he returned to the #1 spot on the depth chart and Edelman dropped back to #3, which was highlighted by the fact that during the Dolphins, Steelers, and Panthers games Amendola was targeted 17 times. Edelman was targeted just 10 times during those same 3 games.

At halftime of the Denver game the Patriots made adjustments, they move Amendola to #3 and reinserted Edelman into the #1 spot. Since that change, Edelman put up these numbers:

• GP – 8
• Targeted – 97
• Catches – 69
• Catch Rate – 71.13%
• Yards – 729
• Average – 10.6
• Touchdowns – 5

Project that over 16 games and you have 138 catches, 1458 yards, 10 touchdowns.

How many players SHOULD we take this extreme risk with: for Edelman? for Tailb? for Wilfork?

I do not really see the risk here MG, he is a 27-year-old receiver who just compiled 121 catches, 1229 yards, and 7 touchdowns over the regular and postseason. Heck Edelman led the team in preseason catches too.

 

[mgteich]

We have a choice.

We can make an offer based on one year's performance and price his offer based on what we mistakenly paid someone else last year. Or not.

There are two risks. One is that Edelman's injury free year is unusual for him. The second is that his performance is not likely to be repeated.

Belichick has often signed players with injury histories. Such risks are part of the game. Belichick usually discounts their offers compared to those who do not have injury histories.

BTW, we seem to have our own private market on slot receivers. Even if you think that we set the market last year in offering TWO players around $6M a year, it does not follow that we should do this again and UP THE ANTE because last year's offers were so right compared with the rest of the league.

I do not really see the risk here MG, he is a 27-year-old receiver who just compiled 121 catches, 1229 yards, and 7 touchdowns over the regular and postseason. Heck Edelman led the team in preseason catches too.

 

[SalemPats]

We have a choice.

We can make an offer based on one year's performance and price his offer based on what we mistakenly paid someone else last year. Or not.

There are two risks. One is that Edelman's injury free year is unusual for him. The second is that his performance is not likely to be repeated.

Belichick has often signed players with injury histories. Such risks are part of the game. Belichick usually discounts their offers compared to those who do not have injury histories.

BTW, we seem to have our own private market on slot receivers. Even if you think that we set the market last year in offering TWO players around $6M a year, it does not follow that we should do this again and UP THE ANTE because last year's offers were so right compared with the rest of the league.

You are biased because you're an Amendola lover.

I really want you to re-watch the patriot games and see how Edelman has evolved into a great player over the 2nd half of the season. His YAC went way up, his route running is precise and toughness unquestioned. The type of offense we have is a precision one. Edelman fits our system to a tee, we need him more than he needs us. I don't think you understand that, mainly because of your bias against him

 

[Kontradiction]

You are biased because you're an Amendola lover.

I really want you to re-watch the patriot games and see how Edelman has evolved into a great player over the 2nd half of the season. His YAC went way up, his route running is precise and toughness unquestioned. The type of offense we have is a precision one. Edelman fits our system to a tee, we need him more than he needs us. I don't think you understand that, mainly because of your bias against him

The Patriots, the team with the top winning percentage of the last decade, HOF coach, and HOF quarterback, need a WR3 more than he needs them?

 

[Fencer]

1. Edelman's next contract is likely (even if not certain) to be a HUGE fraction of his lifetime earnings. He's not going to offer a big discount to any team.

2. The Patriots are willing to invest in 3 guys who all are natural middle-of-the-field receivers, as evidenced by Gronk/Ahern/Amendola (or Welker).

3. I wish the Patriots had had the lucky foresight to tie up Edelman for a few years relatively cheaply, but I certainly understand why they didn't.

 

[superpats]

Edelman will help win a SUPERBOWL as a #4 option. We already saw what happens when he is the leading wr. Edelman is a product of Brady and the system. When he leaves you wont hear his name again just like our other Wrs. The guy catches 100 bones and Some peeps thinks he is a #1WR and the team cant do without him. I would keep him as slot but we're already paying a slot guaranteed dollars for 2014. And Amendola is quicker and more talented than Edelman and he has yr in the offense. Edelman caught 100 bones,dinks dumpoffs,checkdowns. He averaged as many YPC as a rb out of the backfield. I wouldn't want Edelman back at nfl minimum. We need an upgrade and funds are limited. That may sound harsh but i humbly ask to hear me out. We made SUPERBOWL in 2011 and lost,we been beaten soundly and knocked from playoffs last couple yrs. NOW the bar has been raised. Seattle SF even Denver are that much better,not to mention up and coming teams steadily adding impact players! WE NEED TO GET BETTER! WE NEED A BIG FAST PHYSICAL ATHLETIC WR WITH GOOD HANDS, THEY DON'T COME CHEAP AND JUSTIN BLACKMON IS THE BEST CHOICE. HIS TRADE VALUE IS DOWN AND HE IS UNDER ROOKIE CONTRACT. HE CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE MORE PAYCHECKS. BELICHICK AND BRADY,WINNING WILL KEEP HIM STRAIGHT. IF GRONK GOES DOWN HE IS ALSO REDZONE TARGET! We have to upgrade if we are to compete for a SUPERBOWL title. Remember if we are going to win it all,we have to be BETTER THAN EVERYBODY!!!! We cant throw out there sentimental hometown favorites like Edelman,Gregory,ninko,Connolly and realistically think we have a shot. When they are fronting chancellor's,wagners,d demaryiys thomas", Harvins,bowmans,physical athletic olines. Not to mention over the hill guys like wilfork. We have to utilize brady while he is still elite. Once he hangs up the cleats WINNING gets that much harder.We need cut subpar players and upgrade. Belichickism might beat the jets and get us into playoffs but we will run into a butt kicking.! We need a rg or center that's powerful,athletic nasty mauler to punch these bada$$ defenses back in their jaw. Then our remaining cap dollars we could focus on defense. We will have over 20mil in caproom in 2014 alone if we cut the fat and sentimental favorites that doesnt win SUPERBOWLs.

BTW, in this era of free agency and current CBA, you can only keep a player under rookie deal. 4yr! SO! Who a team chooses to spend on and pay is as vital as drafting. This means not o.ky what big names u choose to keep,let walk, or bring aboard via FA,but anticipating things like Edelman is not a vital talent. He was a product! Also it means staying away from overpaying a fa that was a product of system and talent surrounding. Just like a coach. Do you sign a coordinator as your head coach or was it elite talent makinh him look good??!! Last,it means anticipating which raw talent is ready to break out and adjust to nfl. They sre pro bowl caliber bargains. As well as recognizing when to sign a former first rounder who is underachieving! Very Important!! Recognizing when a player is underachieving due to bad or wrong schemes,bad coaching and coaches and team atmospheres that dont care and seem to have no motivation to win as atmosphere of whole team.when a whole teams atmosphere has no motivation,passion,or fired up excitement! If your guy stuffed a rb or leveled other teams lineman it should fire everybody up to wanna make impact wow plays. The coach should have his team fired up! Sometimes a player underachieves due to not care atmosphere. Also as part of not caring atmosphere a player could be undertraining and lack endurance and even be a little out of shape. Its up to gm and coaches to recognize and anticipate when a player will have performance breakout when part of their teams coaching,atmosohere,practices and training. Moss revitalized his career with us. Theres wrs like Blackmon victimized by team and bad qb play.

 

[SalemPats]

The Patriots, the team with the top winning percentage of the last decade, HOF coach, and HOF quarterback, need a WR3 more than he needs them?

If 4th in the league in receptions is a WR3, I wonder who is a WR2.

You're just angry because you preached on and on about DA and he had a bad year, culminated by 0 catches in the AFC championship game.