Cap And Contract Planning

[mgteich]

Others have better access and know where to find all the rankings. For example, espn rankings are for insiders.

In any case, bleacher has Wendell at #12 and having a 100% rating as a run blocker.

Really? I would agree that he was better than serviceable the first 75% of last year. Since November 2012, howvever, into this year - - Brady sacks/pressures have come from right up the middle - - and so have the RB stuffs.

Once again, I'm NOT saying cut the guy. But he should not be signed for anything that would hurt our cap - - he should be vet minimum or slightly above. No other team is going to get into a bidding war for him.

In the meantime, do you have a link to those ratings of him being one of the best centers in the league last year?

 

[shmessy]

Others have better access and know where to find all the rankings. For example, espn rankings are for insiders.

In any case, bleacher has Wendell at #12 and having a 100% rating as a run blocker.

Yeah, I saw that - - very suspect as they have him rated ahead of Markice Pouncey.
Yet, they also have him as a 28/50 on pass protection. Brady is getting killed up the middle. We have top shelf tackles, the defenses know the Pats' weak link.

Resign him? Sure. Just don't take away anyone else's money for it. If he wants to go elsewhere, restructure Connolly who was fine at center - - he only moved because of Brian Waters jumping ship.

 

[mgteich]

If Wendell is not re-signed/extended, then Connolly is our starting center, even at his existing salary. I agree that we would try to restructure and extend if Connolly becomes our starting center. After all, Connolly is only signed through 2014.

BTW, in this scenario, we would have gone fro having 2-3 backups able to start to zero in the space of two years, losing Thomas, Wendell and McDonald. We also will move our oft-used backup OT (Cannon) to OG, and will lose the flexibility of Solder as a blocking TE.

Of course, we would try to sign such backups, but that will either take resources or risks. In any case, we have a solid OL, one of the best. We need to choose how to proceed. For me it doesn't work to move Connolly to C and Cannon to OG and hope that this works and that there are no significant injuries that whoever we bring in can't handle.

Yeah, I saw that - - very suspect as they have him rated ahead of Markice Pouncey.
Yet, they also have him as a 28/50 on pass protection. Brady is getting killed up the middle. We have top shelf tackles, the defenses know the Pats' weak link.

Resign him? Sure. Just don't take away anyone else's money for it. If he wants to go elsewhere, restructure Connolly who was fine at center - - he only moved because of Brian Waters jumping ship.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Yeah, I saw that - - very suspect as they have him rated ahead of Markice Pouncey.
Yet, they also have him as a 28/50 on pass protection. Brady is getting killed up the middle. We have top shelf tackles, the defenses know the Pats' weak link.

Resign him? Sure. Just don't take away anyone else's money for it. If he wants to go elsewhere, restructure Connolly who was fine at center - - he only moved because of Brian Waters jumping ship.

Suspect is an understatement. We all watch every Pats game, so I think we've seen enough to agree that Wendell just isn't very good. The best that you can say about him is that he's serviceable, and oftentimes he isn't even that. It still bugs me that the Pats didn't sign a RG this offseason and move Connolly back.

 

[Huckleberry1]

FWIW, both Wendell and Connolly had very poor games this weekend. I think this board overrates Wendell, for whatever reason. This OL was at it's best when Waters was playing RG and Connolly was at C during the 2011 season. I would very much like to see Connolly back at C with Cannon playing RG. IMO, they should let Wendell back up Connolly, who can easily transition to both guard spots if Cannon has to move back out to RT in case of injury to Vollmer.

This is what I want as well but I find it really hard to ever second guess Scarnecchia.

 

[jmt57]

I'm know that I am getting a bit ahead of ourselves here (and straying far from the original topic), but the week five game at Cincinnati is going to be a huge challenge for the interior line. Geno Atkins and Domata Peko versus Wendell and Connolly is a mismatch that strongly favors the Bengals.

 

[Kontradiction]

I'm know that I am getting a bit ahead of ourselves here (and straying far from the original topic), but the week five game at Cincinnati is going to be a huge challenge for the interior line. Geno Atkins and Domata Peko versus Wendell and Connolly is a mismatch that strongly favors the Bengals.

Yeah. I expect the Pats to keep a RB in the backfield at all times in the shotgun with Brady for pass protection purposes in order to help him have the ability to step up in the pocket. Connolly is still getting over injury and Wendell more than likely won't hold up very well against Atkins (not that many centers can, but Wendell is undersized).

 

[Kontradiction]

FWIW, DocHolliday started a particular thread about the center position here. This thread, apparently, is no daisy.

 

[shmessy]

Suspect is an understatement. We all watch every Pats game, so I think we've seen enough to agree that Wendell just isn't very good. The best that you can say about him is that he's serviceable, and oftentimes he isn't even that. It still bugs me that the Pats didn't sign a RG this offseason and move Connolly back.

The answer was right on our own roster - - Donald Thomas - - who was excellent last year. I truly wish they worked more to keep him in the fold.

That being said, he then got hurt and was put on the IR by his new team - - - ya never know.

 

[shmessy]

FWIW, DocHolliday started a particular thread about the center position here. This thread, apparently, is no daisy.

Usually, I'd merge it, but I'm ok with that since this thread is more about cap planning in general for the entire team. It's a close call, but I'm inclined to keep the two threads separate. Perhaps all future talk about the value of Wendell in partuicular should move to that thread going forward and the general cap planning/allocating should stay in this thread?

 

[jmt57]

Back to the original topic (since I'm guilty of derailing it) ...

One thing I will add is that it seems like every year there is much angst at the number of players whose contracts will be expiring at the end of the season, or the year after that. The thing is that football careers are short, and so are NFL player contracts. Some of the trepidation probably comes from a subconscious comparison to other pro sports, where many players get 7, 8, or even 10+ year contracts; because of that those teams don't have the quantity of starters with expiring contracts on an annual basis.

However, when you look back historically, how often has this ever turned out to be a major issue? We collectively forget that the club entered a year with X number of veterans about to become a free agent, and X more entering the final year of the contract. We also tend to not notice that the same thing is going on with 31 other teams; while we closely inspect our own team and conclude they not in good shape, when we take a step back to compare we discover that relatively speaking that is not the case at all.

For example, six months ago there was some angst about veterans hitting the open market as free agents, yet Sebastian Vollmer, Aqib Talib and Julian Edelman were all re-signed, and looking ahead Rob Ninkovich has already been extended.

 

[mgteich]

We could imply count on rookies to fill in any holes. This year, ALL the backup defensive players are rookies, except for special teamers. It's working, bit forgive me for being a bit nervous, continuing to hope the rookies don't make rookie mistakes.

On offense, we have used the default only at TE and WR.

The only positions where rookies aren't critical are at QB, RB and on the OL.
===========

I don't think that this is the patriot norm that we have seen over the last couple of decades.

And yes, I know that we have injuries. Every team does.
============

So, for me, if we are going to have a top and bottom roster, then it is required to plan to keep and replace the starters with quality players. This takes a different kind of planning than planning for a roster where most of the money allocated to veteran backups, and where there is an emphasis on signing vet minimum backups.

Back to the original topic (since I'm guilty of derailing it) ...

One thing I will add is that it seems like every year there is much angst at the number of players whose contracts will be expiring at the end of the season, or the year after that. The thing is that football careers are short, and so are NFL player contracts. Some of the trepidation probably comes from a subconscious comparison to other pro sports, where many players get 7, 8, or even 10+ year contracts; because of that those teams don't have the quantity of starters with expiring contracts on an annual basis.

However, when you look back historically, how often has this ever turned out to be a major issue? We collectively forget that the club entered a year with X number of veterans about to become a free agent, and X more entering the final year of the contract. We also tend to not notice that the same thing is going on with 31 other teams; while we closely inspect our own team and conclude they not in good shape, when we take a step back to compare we discover that relatively speaking that is not the case at all.

For example, six months ago there was some angst about veterans hitting the open market as free agents, yet Sebastian Vollmer, Aqib Talib and Julian Edelman were all re-signed, and looking ahead Rob Ninkovich has already been extended.

 

[supafly]

It's like when your thoughts are all scrunched up, like a belt around your waist.

I place these kinds of posts by the waste side.

Way side, waist side, waste side....

Bunch of smart a55es around here

 

[supafly]

As for Decker, I would love to see him in New England. I just have to wonder what his asking price will be. Because of Welker and Thomas drawing most of the double teams, Decker will probably be in line to have a pretty successful season this year.

For what it's worth, Eric Decker is the one with the most targets of the 3 main guys so far this year, although it is close and he only leads by one/two.

I agree that he'll likely have a pretty nice season, and my initial thought is that he may be too expensive for Belichick's liking; although that is just off of sheer speculation and personal opinion of course.

 

[supafly]

This is what I want as well but I find it really hard to ever second guess Scarnecchia.

That's an incredibly valid point right there.

One would have to assume that both Belichick and Scharneccia have a much better read on the situation than we, as fans do. It's always possible that Belichick appreciates some of the more cerebral aspects of the position of center, with the ability to read and change protections etc. That isn't even bringing up the chemistry with Brady and the other offensive lineman, nor the fact that Belichick himself is extremely fond of (and quite familiar with) the position itself. He values the position of center very highly, so common sense would point to there possibly being more to the picture than we currently see.

It could relate to some of Cannon's struggles with certain things, at least at a starter's role. It could be that he values Cannon as the all-important 6th offensive lineman so much that he wishes to keep the order as it is, or it could mean something as simple as Connelly being best at RG and/or Wendell being best at the position of center. There are lots of things to consider here.

A higher round draft choice would go a LONG way in hopes of giving the team more flexibility next season though, and the majority feel that it is definitely in order. Of course that may change as the "next best thing" or flavor of the month comes out with a strong showing at the combine in February at a different position.

The answer was right on our own roster - - Donald Thomas - - who was excellent last year. I truly wish they worked more to keep him in the fold.

That being said, he then got hurt and was put on the IR by his new team - - - ya never know.

From what I understood it to be Shmessy, they reportedly were interested in keeping Thomas around on a reasonable deal. Once he started receiving starter's money offers from some other prospective suitors, they had to bow out of the race.

Whether that is true or not is anyone's guess, but it would make sense if so.

I would think that a choice between Wendell/Connelly (resigning vs restructuring) AND a higher round draft choice would be a no-brainer for the 2nd priority after trying to retain Talib in the late winter/early spring.

There's always the possibility that they may try and keep both if the compensation is anywhere close to what your personal projections are in regards to Wendell. He'd certainly be worth keeping on a "cheap" deal in my opinion, without a doubt.

 

[BradyFTW!]

The answer was right on our own roster - - Donald Thomas - - who was excellent last year. I truly wish they worked more to keep him in the fold.

That being said, he then got hurt and was put on the IR by his new team - - - ya never know.

Agreed, and that's the thing. If you address a problem then get screwed over by injury, then that's far more understandable. No matter how you construct your roster, you'll always be vulnerable to injuries. At least in that case, you recognized and addressed the problem. The Pats didn't even get that far.

 

[scout]

No team does as good a job at planning than does the patriots. The patriots try to re-sign free agents the year before they become free agents. The team tries to avoid free agent crises as mcuh as possible. Also, the patriots plan cap cost well into the future, using both rookies and long-term contract structure to manage the cap.

Most here go crazy when folks even discuss future caps. Well, we were correct to suggest that the team was choosing between hernandez and Welker a year before Welker became a free agent. Other choices have been made week ahead (e,g, Wilfork over Seymour).

SIGNINGS IN PREPARATION
The signing of NINKOVICH was awesome. One can only hope for a couple of more such contracts.

SIGNIFICANT 2014 FREE AGENTS
We have a full roster signed for 2014 (including 6 PS types). We now have only 5 players who need to be re-signed or replaced. Obviously, there are many positions where we can hope for upgrades. Also, some think that Connolly and Gregory are ripe for replacement because of their $3M salaries. Since these players are starters, this assessment seems a bit premature.

Talib
Spikes
Wendell
Edelman
Blount

====================
AND THEN THE DELUGE!
The 2014 offseason will be looking toward 2015 (with hopes of extensions) as much as worrying about the five.

A BAKER'S DOZEN
OL: Solder, Cannon, Connolly
QB: Mallett
RB: Vereen, Ridley, Bolden
DL: Wilfork, Kelly
S: McCourty, Gregory
ST: Gostkowski, Slater

There is time and there will be planning. However, do understand that any analysis of the future cap must understand that there will be a huge amount of work to do with these 13 players/positions. Hoping for $7M of cap increases is but a minor factor. Obviously, Brady's contract did a lot to help the future situation.

My 2015 crystal ball after a downed glass of wine. Gone are Gostkowski, Gregory, Kelly, Ridley, Mallet, and Talib.
New contracts for McCourty, Solder, and Wilfork. Drafted a linemen, running back, and a safety. No big free agents, but ones to fill holes along with a couple of undrafted players.

 

[supafly]

My 2015 crystal ball after a downed glass of wine. Gone are Gostkowski, Gregory, Kelly, Ridley, Mallet, and Talib.
New contracts for McCourty, Solder, and Wilfork. Drafted a linemen, running back, and a safety. No big free agents, but ones to fill holes along with a couple of undrafted players.

There will obviously be a nice amount of players who we'd currently deem as "core" in Sept.2013, but will be replaced by Feb.2015--just the same as any other free agency period.

I'd tend to agree with a bunch of those names on both lists, so once you remove some of those names and work on resigning a couple of others, the list obviously becomes less intimidating.

That doesn't say much about how much we can overcome the loss of these players, but it is the reality of what will happen, like it or not. The list is quite challenging between now and the next 18 months, so all we can do is trust Belichick's decision making, hope to draft well in the next 2 periods, and wish for the best!