Cap And Contract Planning

[mgteich]

No team does as good a job at planning than does the patriots. The patriots try to re-sign free agents the year before they become free agents. The team tries to avoid free agent crises as mcuh as possible. Also, the patriots plan cap cost well into the future, using both rookies and long-term contract structure to manage the cap.

Most here go crazy when folks even discuss future caps. Well, we were correct to suggest that the team was choosing between hernandez and Welker a year before Welker became a free agent. Other choices have been made week ahead (e,g, Wilfork over Seymour).

SIGNINGS IN PREPARATION
The signing of NINKOVICH was awesome. One can only hope for a couple of more such contracts.

SIGNIFICANT 2014 FREE AGENTS
We have a full roster signed for 2014 (including 6 PS types). We now have only 5 players who need to be re-signed or replaced. Obviously, there are many positions where we can hope for upgrades. Also, some think that Connolly and Gregory are ripe for replacement because of their $3M salaries. Since these players are starters, this assessment seems a bit premature.

Talib
Spikes
Wendell
Edelman
Blount

====================
AND THEN THE DELUGE!
The 2014 offseason will be looking toward 2015 (with hopes of extensions) as much as worrying about the five.

A BAKER'S DOZEN
OL: Solder, Cannon, Connolly
QB: Mallett
RB: Vereen, Ridley, Bolden
DL: Wilfork, Kelly
S: McCourty, Gregory
ST: Gostkowski, Slater

There is time and there will be planning. However, do understand that any analysis of the future cap must understand that there will be a huge amount of work to do with these 13 players/positions. Hoping for $7M of cap increases is but a minor factor. Obviously, Brady's contract did a lot to help the future situation.

 

[supafly]

Obviously, Brady's contract did a lot to help the future situation.

I think this fact falls by the waist side of the high majority of fans and mediots.

Most seem to think that the move was done in relation to one specific individual (Welker) or one specific position (WR), but the move was likely done to benefit both Brady and the team, while looking ahead at some of the challenges that will come with trying to keep a fair portion of these core players around over the next 18 months.

 

[supafly]

The upcoming free agency period of 2014 isn't even remotely concerning, aside from maybe trying to lock up Talib and one/two other players.

When you compare the 2014 situation to MOST years, it's a walk in the park...especially with having a lot of players retained already, along with approx. 7-8 million dollars to carry over before any restructures or extentions that would free up even more money.

Obviously 2015 will be a much bigger challenge, and that's why I believe they'll be relatively conservative come Feb/March of this next upcoming period. The main goal will likely be retaining Talib. Aside from that, Edelman and Wendell shouldn't be too rough at all. I think that there may be a couple lower tiered signings from other teams, but that they'll be fairly careful with their spending next year.

Either way, we're not in any kind of "bad" situation in the least, and we've seen these kinds of challenges before plenty of times. Luckily we've always kept an eye on the future with all cap developments and have done a good job of predicting both the market of the cap and the market of the player.

Some will attempt to get their panties in a bunch when looking at the list for 2015, but as we all know, a good portion of those players won't even be in the team's plans and will be gone anyway. Players like Mallett, Kelly, Gregory, Bolden, Connelly etc have come and gone 1000 times over without batting an eye and aren't likely to be part of the plan moving forward for 2015 and beyond.

The 2 biggest challenges for 2015 will be retaining McCourty and Solder. One would imagine that a Wilfork extension will be coming prior to Feb.2015 too.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Doesn't the team have a 5th year option on Solder? So he's not truly a FA concern until after 2015.

 

[Miguel]

Doesn't the team have a 5th year option on Solder? So he's not truly a FA concern until after 2015.

Yes, they do. They have until May 3, 2014 to pick it up.

I contend that the NFL should have a televised show on May 2 in which the teams with 5th year options announce whether or not they will pick them up.

 

[Spiral]

Based on the premise that the team makes "either/or" decisions well ahead of time, then it will be interesting to see how hard they try to sign Talib. I don't think they'll give big contracts to both Talib and McCourty.

 

[Kontradiction]

Based on the premise that the team makes "either/or" decisions well ahead of time, then it will be interesting to see how hard they try to sign Talib. I don't think they'll give big contracts to both Talib and McCourty.

It will probably be McCourty. Talib took a shot with a one year deal to try to play his way into a big contract. McCourty is younger, is an excellent safety, and doesn't have a history of issues with the law like Talib has (though he has been good since he's been here). Talib will most likely be allowed to ride off into the sunset and get a big contract elsewhere.

 

[fnordcircle]

I think this fact falls by the waist side

Generally I think the internet is stupid but you're one of the few people who, by saying something like this, would make me question myself.

Is it really supposed to be 'waist side' instead of the more common 'way side' sorta like how it is supposed to be 'champing at the bit' instead of chomping at the bit?

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I think supa is another victim of spellcheck autocomplete. It transforms so many posts.

 

[fester]

Most here go crazy when folks even discuss future caps. Well, we were correct to suggest that the team was choosing between hernandez and Welker a year before Welker became a free agent. Other choices have been made week ahead (e,g, Wilfork over Seymour).
AND THEN THE DELUGE!
The 2014 offseason will be looking toward 2015 (with hopes of extensions) as much as worrying about the five.

A BAKER'S DOZEN
OL: Solder, Cannon, Connolly
QB: Mallett
RB: Vereen, Ridley, Bolden
DL: Wilfork, Kelly
S: McCourty, Gregory
ST: Gostkowski, Slater

Both of these players are already on the wrong side of 30 at a young man's position, throwing another 29 to 35 games of wear and tear on both of their bodies will probably make the decision obvious. The big question for Wilfork is can he continue to be an elite interior lineman at 34, 35, 36? That is a tough projection to make.

 

[ALP]

The2015 class is no walk in the park, I count 6 guys we definitely want to bring back...that's not easy...

Hopefully we look at those contracts this year as well (along with the 2014 class) if we do, then the cap room we have left for this year makes much more sense

 

[jmt57]

The NFL salary cap being relatively flat is already affecting some teams, and will likely do more so in the near future.

Case in point: New York Giants sign Eli Manning to a six-year, $97.5-million contract extension. Later the contract is renegotiated to lower the 2012 cap number from $16,350,000 to $9,600,000. Because of that Eli's 2013 cap figure increased from $18.6 to $20,850,000, the 2014 cap figure from $18.15 to $20,400,000 and the 2015 cap figure from $17.5 to $19,750,000.

Add in a couple of other relatively high salaries (Chris Snee and Antel Rolle, a combined $19,000,000 in cap space) and they don't have cap space to build decent depth throughout the rest of the roster.

Net result: a sieve of an offensive line that can neither run block nor pass protect, and a defense that is giving up a league-worst 38 points per game.

The Giants were a team that was built on having a strong defense, and the previous balance of their expenditures reflected that. They weren't like the Packers, who were going to be relatively heavy in cap percentage at QB.

NYG got away from that philosophy, probably in large part to their thinking that the cap would rise enough to make those cap numbers in 2013 and beyond manageable.


A detailed look at NY Giants quarterback Eli Manning's contract extension | NJ.com

» Over the Cap- New York Giants 2013 Salary Cap and Contracts

 

[Urgent]

Generally I think the internet is stupid but you're one of the few people who, by saying something like this, would make me question myself.

Is it really supposed to be 'waist side' instead of the more common 'way side' sorta like how it is supposed to be 'champing at the bit' instead of chomping at the bit?

It's like when your thoughts are all scrunched up, like a belt around your waist.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

The Ravens will also feel cap tightening from the Flacco deal. And I believe that next year the Donks have some 2nd contract WR targets to re-sign; thus the urgency for Peyton to win now and be crowned GOAT.

 

[BradyFTW!]

No team does as good a job at planning than does the patriots. The patriots try to re-sign free agents the year before they become free agents. The team tries to avoid free agent crises as mcuh as possible. Also, the patriots plan cap cost well into the future, using both rookies and long-term contract structure to manage the cap.

Most here go crazy when folks even discuss future caps. Well, we were correct to suggest that the team was choosing between hernandez and Welker a year before Welker became a free agent. Other choices have been made week ahead (e,g, Wilfork over Seymour).

SIGNINGS IN PREPARATION
The signing of NINKOVICH was awesome. One can only hope for a couple of more such contracts.

SIGNIFICANT 2014 FREE AGENTS
We have a full roster signed for 2014 (including 6 PS types). We now have only 5 players who need to be re-signed or replaced. Obviously, there are many positions where we can hope for upgrades. Also, some think that Connolly and Gregory are ripe for replacement because of their $3M salaries. Since these players are starters, this assessment seems a bit premature.

Talib
Spikes
Wendell
Edelman
Blount

====================
AND THEN THE DELUGE!
The 2014 offseason will be looking toward 2015 (with hopes of extensions) as much as worrying about the five.

A BAKER'S DOZEN
OL: Solder, Cannon, Connolly
QB: Mallett
RB: Vereen, Ridley, Bolden
DL: Wilfork, Kelly
S: McCourty, Gregory
ST: Gostkowski, Slater

There is time and there will be planning. However, do understand that any analysis of the future cap must understand that there will be a huge amount of work to do with these 13 players/positions. Hoping for $7M of cap increases is but a minor factor. Obviously, Brady's contract did a lot to help the future situation.

IMO, none of the 2014 guys that you listed absolutely need to be re-signed. I would like to see Talib signed if he agrees to a reasonable/below-market contract, but I don't see that happening. Spikes is a good player but someone else will pay more than he's worth to the Pats. Re: Wendell, I'd rather see Connolly moved back to center, and have the Pats go sign a new RG.

I agree that 2015 is the big year, and I'd like to see the Pats spend the 2014 offseason worrying more about extending 2015 guys before they hit the market than re-signing 2014 guys. Presumably 1-2 of the RBs will be re-signed; hopefully Vereen is able to stay healthy from here on out, in which case signing him will probably become a no-brainer.

Solder and McCourty are by far the most important 2015 FAs, I think, and both should be re-signed at rates that reflect that they're top-tier at their positions. If Mankins has to be cut to make room for that, then so be it. Connolly and Wilfork are both guys that you'd like to re-sign, but at a lot depends on how they hold up from now to then. For whatever reason, I'm skeptical that Wilfork will be back after 2015.

Mallett's probably gone after 2015, and that's fine. Gost and Slater should be affordable at reasonable contracts, but if not, then drafting their replacements is fine. If Harmon or Wilson steps up, then Gregory will probably be gone. I expect that Kelly will be gone as well, and I have no idea where it'll go with Cannon. If Wendell is allowed to leave in 2014, it wouldn't shock me to see him shifted to RG and Connolly to C, in which case he would become more valuable to the team. In a nutshell, I 2014/2015 offseasons most likely roll out something like this:

2014 offseason:
- Sign a cornerback who specializes in man press coverage, either Talib himself or his replacement if he's too expensive. May need to sign another for good measure, pending Ryan's progress.
- Extend McCourty and/or Solder
- Spikes, Blount and Wendell walk
- Edelman is re-signed only if he comes very cheap


2015 offseason:
- Lock up McCourty and Solder if they haven't been already
- Re-sign Vereen and one of Ridley/Bolden. Potentially re-sign neither and draft someone; that's a more viable option with RBs than it is with just about any position.
- Cannon, Wilfork, Gost, Slater, and Connolly come back only if the money is very reasonable.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Based on the premise that the team makes "either/or" decisions well ahead of time, then it will be interesting to see how hard they try to sign Talib. I don't think they'll give big contracts to both Talib and McCourty.

That depends upon what "big" is? I think they are going to try to get both of them in the 5-6 million range with Talib getting the lesser deal at 4 years. Whether or not they take the offers will be the key but i see them going 25-30 million for McCourty over 5 and 20-22 for Talib over 4.

 

[Huckleberry1]

The Ravens will also feel cap tightening from the Flacco deal. And I believe that next year the Donks have some 2nd contract WR targets to re-sign; thus the urgency for Peyton to win now and be crowned GOAT.

Huh?


Time to start paying attention Pissah, Peyton was declared GOAT 14 years ago.

 

[mgteich]

I think that you underestimate the depth of the issues in 2015. For example, we will have to sign a full set of running backs.

I expect that the team will take care of business in 2014, but almost all of the focus will be on extensions.

2014
Kicking the can on CB for another year is possible. But it would seem that at least one defensive back should be signed long-term, hopefully two.

I don't accept the idea that it is OK to keep losing starting quality linemen. We have gone from 7 starting quality linemen (some would ay 8) in 2012 to only 6 this year. Most would keep Connolly OR Wendell. After all, a rookie can pick up the slack. Wendell will go to the open market. My strong preference is that he be the next to be extended. IMHO, one of the strengths of the patriots is the OL, and its consistency. I would want to keep all six starters.
We use 6 starters. Solder has been a TE. And, of course, injuries happen.

So for me, I look forward to another extension in the next few weeks; of Wendell. Also, Edelman may be willing to sign a long-term deal.

The upcoming free agency period of 2014 isn't even remotely concerning, aside from maybe trying to lock up Talib and one/two other players.

When you compare the 2014 situation to MOST years, it's a walk in the park...especially with having a lot of players retained already, along with approx. 7-8 million dollars to carry over before any restructures or extentions that would free up even more money.

Obviously 2015 will be a much bigger challenge, and that's why I believe they'll be relatively conservative come Feb/March of this next upcoming period. The main goal will likely be retaining Talib. Aside from that, Edelman and Wendell shouldn't be too rough at all. I think that there may be a couple lower tiered signings from other teams, but that they'll be fairly careful with their spending next year.

Either way, we're not in any kind of "bad" situation in the least, and we've seen these kinds of challenges before plenty of times. Luckily we've always kept an eye on the future with all cap developments and have done a good job of predicting both the market of the cap and the market of the player.

Some will attempt to get their panties in a bunch when looking at the list for 2015, but as we all know, a good portion of those players won't even be in the team's plans and will be gone anyway. Players like Mallett, Kelly, Gregory, Bolden, Connelly etc have come and gone 1000 times over without batting an eye and aren't likely to be part of the plan moving forward for 2015 and beyond.

The 2 biggest challenges for 2015 will be retaining McCourty and Solder. One would imagine that a Wilfork extension will be coming prior to Feb.2015 too.

 

[ATippett56]

So for me, I look forward to another extension in the next few weeks; of Wendell. Also, Edelman may be willing to sign a long-term deal.

Julian Edelman deserves, at worst, the same deal that Matt Slater received.

http://www.overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Matt Slater&Position=WR&Team=Patriots

 

[cstjohn17]

Nicely played, I am of two minds (at least two maybe more). There is the fan boy in me that says "Give me, Give me, Give me" and the other side tries to wonder "What will BB do?"

A lot can change in the next couple of years, injuries, rapid increase or decrease in a players production. Also the Brady WOW will be further along the curve.

Looking at the list of players there are a lot of players that I would sign if the money was right but not too many that would warrant a franchise tag. Also there are two drafts and two free agency classes to look at.

I have become conditioned by the Patriots but for now I don't see anyone who is irreplaceable among the future free agents.