Content Post Idle thoughts – I am a Pats fan....and this is the draft

[Synovia]

Choose your own analyst, your own lists. Where do YOUR favorite analysts place Harmon.

My favorite analysts aren't giving their lists out on a free website, they're turning them over to NFL teams. Atleast one of which thought Harmon was supposed to go that high.

And just BTW, think that Mayock's list are worthless is just plain ignorant. Do you really think that there is no real analysis behind the scenes supporting the conclusions he give on air?

Like I said, Mayock does a pretty good job, but its pretty clear that he doesn't see film of all these guys. Its also pretty clear that there's only 1 of him, and the Patriots(and every other team with their own scouting board) have dozens.

He does tons of analysis, but each NFL team does tons more. And there isn't a single NFL team out there who has the same "Top 100" that he does.


The error you're making is assuming that hes the one who is correct.

 

[mgteich]

You pick on Mayock. There are dozens of lists. Did ANY of the analysis that was available publicly show Harmon as a top 100 players, any?

I get that someone saw something in Harmon. But 91 is a high pick. Signing rugby and lacrosse players in the 6th or 7th is one thing. Wasting a 3rd is quite another. And yes, I understand that it is a patriot tradition to waste third round pick, although I though we stopped that with Ridley.

The error you're making is assuming that hes the one who is correct.

 

[Synovia]

There are several cholces.

1) ACCEPT that Belichick's player is the best available for the team at any spot and the best value at any spot.

2) REFUSE to evaluate at all. After all, we can wait 3 years and find out.

3) Rely on YOUR OWN great analytic skills.

4) Choose and select among analysts whose analysis you respect.

I chose Option 4. And when NO analyst had Harmon in the top 100, I suggested that perhaps, just perhaps, Belickick might have been able to get Harmon at 102. Seriously, does ANYONE doubt that?

:bricks:That's a totally ridiculous false dichotomy. There are a ton more options than that. One of which is:

5) Realize that each team has different rankings, and we never get to see them. Realize that the Analysts are doing the exact same thing we are, and most of them don't see any more tape than we do. Realize that the guys getting paid to draft people for a living are better at it than the guys who get paid to talk about the draft.

How about, rather than claiming "that's a reach and a bad pick," We say "Hrm, that was unexpected, I'll leave my evaluation of that pick until we actually see the kid play"?

How about you just admit that we don't know, instead of vehemently spouting your opinion as fact?

 

[Synovia]

You pick on Mayock. There are dozens of lists. Did ANY of the analysis that was available publicly show Harmon as a top 100 players, any?

Why do you think that the publicly available analysis is relevant, or indicative of what the teams actually think? Mike Mayock doesn't get draft picks.

 

[Rob0729]

Collins and Dobson were fine value when they were picked, according to Mayock. I don't understand your point at all. It wouldn't make sense to pick a WR in Round One because it was our biggest hole (only hole).

I have no problem with any pick except Harmon.

With regard to Mayock's lists. You can use all the list and compile the VALUE of Harmon and/or the expectation of when he would be drafted. I would really like to see those who projected him in the top 100, where we drafted him. I like Mayock's list. I used to use Gosselin's. These are benchmarks.

You clearly favor needs-based valuation. That's fine. However such methods must be tempered by value, otherwise teams will often waste considerable value. We clearly need a WR at 29. We received fair draft value by trading and drafting 3 players well worth drafting where we drafted them. Collins was also a solid pick.

There is no explanation of the Harmon pick other than Belichick wanted him and was afraid that someone else would draft him. He clearly was not worried about losing Boyce.

You have attacked the Ryan pick using Mayock in other threads. I would be a hypocrite to dismiss Mayock as one man's opinion on picks you criticize base on his big board and ignore the ones that Mayock said the Pats drafted at the right value. I love Mayock, but he does a general big board not looking at individual team needs and fits. Some of his highest ranked players just don't fit the Pats' schemes.

I am not really a need based valuation person. But I think if Mayock was doing a big board for the Pats specifically, it would be very different than the one he does for NFL.com. Part of it would be need, but another part would be system fit. The Pats are not going to draft a guy who is a pure one gap d-lineman. They are not going to pick an o-lineman who doesn't fit with Scar's blocking scheme. They are not going to draft purely athletic WR who doesn't have the football smarts to pick up routes and route adjustments. Forgetting needs, those criteria will know off a couple of dozen players off Mayock's big board.

I have no problem with you using Mayock to make your evaluations (as if you need my permission). He is one of the best out there. I just have a problem with you talking about his ranking as if it is the standard of where players should be selected and if someone is drafted lower or higher than where he ranked them that it means something.

 

[Huckleberry1]

The garbage from B2M and others about Belichick "wasting" Brady's prime years is just that, garbage. Belichick has put this team in position to win four more championships during that 8 years and it is the players who didn't deliver, not Belichik, they had 2 SB's and 2 AFCCG's where they came close but didn't win, that's not on Belichick it is on the team, and blaming his drafts for those losses is beyond ignorant.

Belichick needed to address their need at WR and he did so with Amendola, Jones, and the two picks, just because it isn't a 65 million dollar WR or the Mel Kiper favorites in no way means they didn't effectively address the need.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Bottom line: 8 years no Super Bowls victories.

The team is Tom Brady and I feel bad that his last years are being wasted, he is the great QB ever to play this game, the ultimate team player, and gets to enjoy another grueling season of putting the entire team on his back.

You are very very spoiled.I followed the Pats from 1960 until 2001 before I saw a Superbowl victory. That was 42 years not a mere 8. Hel,l I watched for 25 years before they even went to a Superbowl. Then they were utterly humiliated by the Bears and their 46 overload Defense.

Now they go to a Superbowl about every other year.

 

[Brady2Moss]

You are very very spoiled.I followed the Pats from 1960 until 2001 before I saw a Superbowl victory. That was 42 years not a mere 8. Hel,l I watched for 25 years before they even went to a Superbowl. Then they were utterly humiliated by the Bears and their 46 overload Defense.

Now they go to a Superbowl about every other year.

Alright I'm spoiled, it doesn't change anything besides add a tick in your insult fellow posters column. Point still stands.

 

[mgteich]

I have a problem with the Harmon pick, period.

I'm fine with Ryan. I noted that he was probably drafted 1/2 to a round early because of the run on corners. That is certainly understandable. We needed defensive back help.

You have attacked the Ryan pick using Mayock in other threads. I would be a hypocrite to dismiss Mayock as one man's opinion on picks you criticize base on his big board and ignore the ones that Mayock said the Pats drafted at the right value. I love Mayock, but he does a general big board not looking at individual team needs and fits. Some of his highest ranked players just don't fit the Pats' schemes.

I am not really a need based valuation person. But I think if Mayock was doing a big board for the Pats specifically, it would be very different than the one he does for NFL.com. Part of it would be need, but another part would be system fit. The Pats are not going to draft a guy who is a pure one gap d-lineman. They are not going to pick an o-lineman who doesn't fit with Scar's blocking scheme. They are not going to draft purely athletic WR who doesn't have the football smarts to pick up routes and route adjustments. Forgetting needs, those criteria will know off a couple of dozen players off Mayock's big board.

I have no problem with you using Mayock to make your evaluations (as if you need my permission). He is one of the best out there. I just have a problem with you talking about his ranking as if it is the standard of where players should be selected and if someone is drafted lower or higher than where he ranked them that it means something.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Bottom line: 8 years no Super Bowls victories.

The team is Tom Brady and I feel bad that his last years are being wasted, he is the great QB ever to play this game, the ultimate team player, and gets to enjoy another grueling season of putting the entire team on his back.

Did the Pats not just draft TWO new WRs for him to throw to?
Did they also not just draft the passrusher we have been clamoring for as well as 2 more new players in the secondary to bolster that unit, whilst retaining Talib, Dennard, and Arrington?

I think Tom is getting plenty of help. It's just that the Pats fans never like BB's drafts and find something to complain about. So they aren't "known names". So what? Deion Branch was not a known name and neither was Stevan Ridley. They turned out just fine, and both were drafted 2nd round or later.

 

[State]

A cynic could point out that Greg Schiano rebuilt his secondary this offseason, and HE didn't draft those guys.

A cynic may also remind the homers that the Illinois CB taken in the fifth round by the Steelers, Pick 17, (150), Terry Hawthorne, is every bit as talented as Tavon Wilson whom we surprisingly took in the second round last year from the same school.

2013 NFL Draft Tracker

The Steelers know how to draft in the mid rounds.

Hawthorne, slightly smaller, is faster, having run a 4.44 forty as opposed to Wilson's 4.52.

For some reason (pride?) Belichick delights in drafting players not invited to the combine.

Last year Tavon Wilson--who will likely not play more this year or next as he did last season--and this year Duron Harmon who, truth be told, has good chemistry with the CB from the same school we drafted earlier in the third round, Logan Ryan.

We excel at the first round which, this year, was the second round for us. Jamie Collins will be an exciting and dynamic player.

 

[JoeShmoe]

The problem here is people just rely on these draftniks big board and start picking players for the pats one year out ( they'll no doubt be a hundred posts on next years players by next week)

Why not just wait and see because its abundantly clear the Pats (and other GMs) know the team and its needs and the players they like that fit those needs far better than the average joe

In 3 years our starting safety's might be Tavon Wilson and this Harmon kid, both of whom people who live and die by these big boards couldn't understand

 

[Gumby]

You pick on Mayock. There are dozens of lists. Did ANY of the analysis that was available publicly show Harmon as a top 100 players, any?

I get that someone saw something in Harmon. But 91 is a high pick. Signing rugby and lacrosse players in the 6th or 7th is one thing. Wasting a 3rd is quite another. And yes, I understand that it is a patriot tradition to waste third round pick, although I though we stopped that with Ridley.

Not really a dog in this fight; but I'll throw my 2 cents in.

I think the point about Mayock (and any analyst) making a list for the generic and the 32 teams making their own individual lists is a pretty strong point.

Based on that I think you could throw in a 'variance' factor on any of the picks. That they could legitimately be selected +/- X% from their GENERIC VALUE POSITION.
So Harmon wasnt in the top 100. But lets say he was 111 and our X factor is 20%. That means teams could legitimately pick him anywhere from 89-133.

I also think BBs track record on knowing other teams NEEDS and INTERESTS is much better than ours and the 'draft gurus'. With Vollmer, (and multiple other times over the last 10 years) I remember distinctly finding out in weeks after the draft that teams 1-5 places behind pats were going to take the guy BB wanted (several times it was the Jesters he jumped around). So that is another factor that can MOVE GUYS UP beyond their GENERIC VALUE POSITION.

last point - BB says there are 3 phases to the game and all are equally important. AND he values (pays them) guys not based on the starting 11 but on how much he will put them on the field (arrington contract anyone??) But the draft gurus seem pretty focused on starting 11 O and starting 11 D positions. Is there a chance that BB has Harmon coming to NE for something OTHER THAN just his play at S???? gunner, PR, KR ??

So while I agree that it appears to be a bit of a head scratcher, and the tape I saw in the Harmon thread seemed to show a guy who was a bit one-dimensional (very limited in run support) - which lends credence to the picked too early thought.............I'll drink the juice and sing kumbayah on this til the leaves change color and we see what he brings to the table when it counts.

 

[patfanken]

Did the Pats not just draft TWO new WRs for him to throw to?
Did they also not just draft the passrusher we have been clamoring for as well as 2 more new players in the secondary to bolster that unit, whilst retaining Talib, Dennard, and Arrington?

I think Tom is getting plenty of help. It's just that the Pats fans never like BB's drafts and find something to complain about. So they aren't "known names". So what? Deion Branch was not a known name and neither was Stevan Ridley. They turned out just fine, and both were drafted 2nd round or later.

Why are even responding to this waste of human flesh, VJC, especially with reasoned logic. That's not what he's here for. He's not interested in your opinion. He's not searching for the truth. He is here to antagonize and upset us, and by responding to him, he wins...at least in his sick little mind.

Some people have put him on "ignore", I choose to simply not respond to his foolishness. I don't mind fans of other teams "trolling" our site and bringing legitimate criticism to the discussion. But this tool is doing neither. If we all simply refuse to respond, he will eventually go away and get his sick kicks elsewhere.

 

[mgteich]

Both Dobson and Ryan are top special teamers. I've read nothing about Harmon. Special team specialists get drafted in the 6th or 7th (like Ebner). I think Slater was a 5th, but he is one of the best in the NFL.

Obviously, Belichick picks more Rutgers players than anyone (perhaps more than the rest combined).

Not really a dog in this fight; but I'll throw my 2 cents in.

I think the point about Mayock (and any analyst) making a list for the generic and the 32 teams making their own individual lists is a pretty strong point.

Based on that I think you could throw in a 'variance' factor on any of the picks. That they could legitimately be selected +/- X% from their GENERIC VALUE POSITION.
So Harmon wasnt in the top 100. But lets say he was 111 and our X factor is 20%. That means teams could legitimately pick him anywhere from 89-133.

I also think BBs track record on knowing other teams NEEDS and INTERESTS is much better than ours and the 'draft gurus'. With Vollmer, (and multiple other times over the last 10 years) I remember distinctly finding out in weeks after the draft that teams 1-5 places behind pats were going to take the guy BB wanted (several times it was the Jesters he jumped around). So that is another factor that can MOVE GUYS UP beyond their GENERIC VALUE POSITION.

last point - BB says there are 3 phases to the game and all are equally important. AND he values (pays them) guys not based on the starting 11 but on how much he will put them on the field (arrington contract anyone??) But the draft gurus seem pretty focused on starting 11 O and starting 11 D positions. Is there a chance that BB has Harmon coming to NE for something OTHER THAN just his play at S???? gunner, PR, KR ??

So while I agree that it appears to be a bit of a head scratcher, and the tape I saw in the Harmon thread seemed to show a guy who was a bit one-dimensional (very limited in run support) - which lends credence to the picked too early thought.............I'll drink the juice and sing kumbayah on this til the leaves change color and we see what he brings to the table when it counts.

 

[patfanken]

A cynic may also remind the homers that the Illinois CB taken in the fifth round by the Steelers, Pick 17, (150), Terry Hawthorne, is every bit as talented as Tavon Wilson whom we surprisingly took in the second round last year from the same school.

2013 NFL Draft Tracker

The Steelers know how to draft in the mid rounds.

Hawthorne, slightly smaller, is faster, having run a 4.44 forty as opposed to Wilson's 4.52.

For some reason (pride?) Belichick delights in drafting players not invited to the combine.

Last year Tavon Wilson--who will likely not play more this year or next as he did last season--and this year Duron Harmon who, truth be told, has good chemistry with the CB from the same school we drafted earlier in the third round, Logan Ryan.

We excel at the first round which, this year, was the second round for us. Jamie Collins will be an exciting and dynamic player.

Cut the crap, State, if the Steelers were such better drafters, why have they missed the playoffs 3 times in recent years. Complain all you want, but for some self hating Pats fans "the grass is always greener in the other fella's yard". You wouldn't be so eager to want to swap for another team's FO on draft day, if you had to take their win/loss records along with them.

 

[Synovia]

I have a problem with the Harmon pick, period.

Its fine that you don't like the Harmon pick, but as soon as you say he was "picked too early" you're presuming to know more about him, and the rest of the players in the draft than the people who do this for a living, and do it well.

You don't like the Harmon pick because you don't know **** about Harmon. And that's fine. Stop pretending its because you know something everyone else doesn't. Admit you're as ignorant as the rest of us here.

 

[lurker1965]

31 teams have the best Qb in the league, 31 teams have the best Qb of all time too right? Stop pretending this isn't a unique situation. Stop pretending we don't have a unique advantage because we have an elite QB with reasonable cap hits because he took a massive pay cut on an extension this offseason to lower his cap number. Stop pretending other teams aren't getting bent over by their elite Qbs cap wise.

I'll let the rah rah BS go on now, those are my 2 cents. See ya.

As an Indy fan during Peyton's time and they would say the Colts do. Steeler fans would claim Big Ben is in the top 10 all time then say, "OK, top 25.")
Ask a Green Bay fan if Favre or Rodgers can't hold Brady's jock. Now add the Saints and Brees, Denver and the new Peyton. Heck, Baltimore thinks Flacco is worth every penny or they would not have signed him.

Yes, 31 other teams have the best QB of all time too - just ask their fans.

Now grow a fricken pair and grab your bootstraps and stop whining.

 

[Ring 6]

Collins and Dobson were fine value when they were picked, according to Mayock. I don't understand your point at all. It wouldn't make sense to pick a WR in Round One because it was our biggest hole (only hole).

I have no problem with any pick except Harmon.

With regard to Mayock's lists. You can use all the list and compile the VALUE of Harmon and/or the expectation of when he would be drafted. I would really like to see those who projected him in the top 100, where we drafted him. I like Mayock's list. I used to use Gosselin's. These are benchmarks.

You clearly favor needs-based valuation. That's fine. However such methods must be tempered by value, otherwise teams will often waste considerable value. We clearly need a WR at 29. We received fair draft value by trading and drafting 3 players well worth drafting where we drafted them. Collins was also a solid pick.

There is no explanation of the Harmon pick other than Belichick wanted him and was afraid that someone else would draft him. He clearly was not worried about losing Boyce.

I think the point here is that you are using Mayocks list as if it is exactly where every player will get drafted, as if he polled all teams and got their individual opinions of the player and know where each would select him.
I'll counter with this. Bill Belichick clearly felt there was a good chance he could be gone by 102. Do you really think that Mike Mayock knows more about the NFL draft than Bill Belichick?

 

[Fencer]

The Steelers know how to draft in the mid rounds.

Aaron Hernandez says Hi.
Asante Samuel waves.
Dan Koppen grins.
Jarvis Green smiles graciously.

And Dennard looks sheepish that he couldn't make it as high as the mid rounds.