We're going in circles at this point so just a few short points.
*Your info about Whitehurst is off. He was a 3 and a half year starter who was great as a sophomore, he threw for about 9600 yards in college--3500 more than Hoyer.
* Draft status doesn't matter in and of itself, it matters because it says something about what people thought a guy's NFL potential was at a point in time. If a player improves the draft info becomes obsolete but you can only tell that if the guy actually plays.
* Hoyer's preseason and mop-up duty are close to meaningless. NFL teams aren't going to trade for him based on 42 regular season and 101 preseason passes.
* Painter, Hoyer and Daniel are comparable because they are limited athletes who haven't played enough minutes to judge them fairly but who have earned NFL backup jobs on good teams.
*Teams trade for guys like Rob Johnson/Whitehurst/Henson/Kolb in large part because they have physical attribtues that a guy like Hoyer doesn't have.
Hoyer's a good enough player but nobody's going to think he's worth a three or a four until he sees actual action.
I agree, we're going in circles. I do want to correct a few things though, on both sides.
First, on Whitehurst's stats. Yeah, I looked at
ESPN.com but that was missing his first two seasons, including 2003 which was a big year for Whitehurst. Given that context, the numbers are a lot closer. However, Whitehurst's 3,500 additional yards aren't really that impressive when you factor in that he started an extra year and a half.
I would also add that Hoyer had a very good junior season, throwing for 2,700 yards, 20 TDs vs. 11 INTs. He struggled the year after, which led a lot of people to overlook him. But Whitehurst had a great second year as a starter, throwing for 3,500 yards, 21 TDs vs. 13 INTs. But then he struggled as well, and for two seasons, throwing a combined 18 TDs vs. 27 INTs. It seems weird to downplay Hoyer's junior season because he struggled the next year without mentioning the same thing with Whitehurst, who experienced larger struggles.
As for Hoyer's limited tape, I agree it makes it very difficult to evaluate. I'm simply stating that other QBs have been taken with less passes thrown. This is fact. We can argue over the why, but the total number of meaningful passes is not an immutable law is all I'm trying to say.
Ultimately, we probably won't ever know what Hoyer's true value is to another team unless they make a crazy offer. He'll probably stay our back-up, and depending on the rules, perhaps be signed as an RFA for a few more years. But if he does get traded for more than a 7th, I won't be surprised.
