Coulda, Shoulda: Debate past draft decisions here

[patchick]

Welcome aboard, DRC vs. Mayo!

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Welcome aboard, DRC vs. Mayo!

patchick--you made an excellent point re: DRC/Lofton in your other post.

There is one other thing worth noting, though--such a "desperation" move would run contrary to everything the Patriots have done this decade. You'd have a hard time naming one instance in which the Patriots moved up to grab a player solely to fill a need.

That's because the Patriots never move up for need; rather, they move up for value. Say what you want about the merits of drafting Chad Jackson, nobody expected him to still be on the board in the late 30s, so the Patriots pounced.

 

[patchick]

I'm just going to repost my last comments from the other thread for continuity:

patchick, I understand what you're saying, yet I do think you are including a tad too much in your scenario. This trade value in terms of numbers exceeds what would have been required to jump from 62 to 37, removing Wilhite and including Slater is the more likely scenario, to make that jump up to 37, not Wilhite. So in all fairness it would have been (DRC/Curtis Lofton) vs (Mayo/Wheatley/O'Connell/Slater).

Maybe, it's an unknowable. You can't just look at exactly where a player ended up and calculate the "value chart" after the fact; you have to figure out what your move would have been on draft day if you were desperate to move all the way up from 62 to, say, 30-35. And that's part of the problem: the Pats would have been desperate.

CB was the deepest position in last year's draft, and it's a position where the Pats have historically done very well in rounds 2+. ILB, in contrast, has been the single hardest position on the field for BB to fill -- and they needed an immediate starter. So you can take your ideal ILB target first, then sit back and wait knowing that a lot of CB talent remains. Or you can take your ideal CB first and then plan to give up whatever it takes to get the only remaining ILB option.

Regardless of what I think of DRC (and I liked him a ton), the "choice" of DRC+Lofton would have been a wildly risky draft strategy and cost extra picks, starting with the valuable Mr. O'Connell. So I'm with Mayoclinic on this:

Lofton just wasn't going to happen last year. He was obviously going to go late 1st/early 2nd, so with picks at 7 and 63 there was no realistic way that we could get him if we had taken DRC in the 1st round.

 

[patchick]

Say what you want about the merits of drafting Chad Jackson, nobody expected him to still be on the board in the late 30s, so the Patriots pounced.

Absolutely, it looked like a steal from a draftnik's perspective. Of course, what we all didn't know at the time was that several teams had taken Jackson off their board because of his attitude problems. So in the "coulda, shoulda" spirit here's my post-mortem on CJ:

I blame Urban Meyer.

The Pats are usually very careful on "attitude" issues, and yet here they moved up to get a guy whom others had flagged as a problem child. Remember that was the first year BB spent a chunk of his vacation with Meyer & the Gators, so I'm assuming that Meyer must have personally vouched for Jackson to allay the Pats' concerns. Plus New England got the invaluable Jeremy Mincey out of the relationship too.

%#&$! Urban Meyer.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Could you imagine the Pats without Mayo last year? They lost Thomas, Crable, Woods, Alexander, and Bruschi to injury, they ended the season with Jr, and Colvin coming out of retirement. Mayo was the pick, and the right one. You have to remember that Wheatley was coming on before he got hurt. DRC is a very good player, and I was all for drafting him if they could have moved up (FROM THE 2ND RD) to grab him. But the Pats took the #7 pick in the draft and garnered their starting ILB and ROY plus another pick, you really can't ask for much more than that.

I guess that I'm the only one not ready to throw Wheatley and Whilite to the scrap heap. Like the guys who were calling Merriweather a bust last year at this time. The Pats defense is very complicated, and Wheatly and Whilite will be miles ahead of any CB they draft this year.

The Mayo trade and pick was the right thing last year. Because you have to add the 3rd rounder that the Pats got (Crable). Did you want the Pats to take DRC at 7? or even 10?

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Here's the top 21 from last year, name me one guy that you would rather have on the Pats than Mayo...and Crable


(1) Miami Dolphins Long, Jake OT 6'7" 315 Michigan

[+] 2 (2) St. Louis Rams Long, Chris DE 6'4" 275 Virginia

[+] 3 (3) Atlanta Falcons Ryan, Matt QB 6'5" 224 Boston College

[+] 4 (4) Oakland Raiders McFadden, Darren RB 6'2" 210 Arkansas

[+] 5 (5) Kansas City Chiefs Dorsey, Glenn DT 6'2" 316 LSU

[+] 6 (6) New York Jets Gholston, Vernon DE 6'4" 258 Ohio State

[+] 7 (7) New Orleans Saints (From 49ers through Patriots) Ellis, Sedrick DT 6'1" 305 Southern Cal

[+] 8 (8) Jacksonville Jaguars (From Ravens) Harvey, Derrick DE 6'5" 252 Florida

[+] 9 (9) Cincinnati Bengals Rivers, Keith LB 6'3" 235 Southern Cal

[+] 10 (10) New England Patriots (From Saints) Mayo, Jerod OLB 6'1" 242 Tennessee

[+] 11 (11) Buffalo Bills McKelvin, Leodis CB 5'11" 190 Troy

[+] 12 (12) Denver Broncos Clady, Ryan OT 6'6" 316 Boise State

[+] 13 (13) Carolina Panthers Stewart, Jonathan RB 5'11" 235 Oregon

[+] 14 (14) Chicago Bears Williams, Chris OT 6'6" 315 Vanderbilt

[+] 15 (15) Kansas City Chiefs (From Lions) Albert, Branden OG 6'6" 309 Virginia

[+] 16 (16) Arizona Cardinals Rodgers-Cromartie, Dominique CB 6'2" 182 Tennessee State

[+] 17 (17) Detroit Lions (From Vikings through Chiefs) Cherilus, Gosder OT 6'7" 315 Boston College

[+] 18 (18) Baltimore Ravens (From Texans) Flacco, Joe QB 6'7" 236 Delaware

[+] 19 (19) Carolina Panthers (From Eagles) Otah, Jeff OT 6'6" 340 Pittsburgh

[+] 20 (20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Talib, Aqib CB 6'1" 202 Kansas

[+] 21 (21) Atlanta Falcons (From Redskins) Baker, Sam OT 6'5" 312 Southern Cal

 

[The_Riddler]

Could you imagine the Pats without Mayo last year? They lost Thomas, Crable, Woods, Alexander, and Bruschi to injury, they ended the season with Jr, and Colvin coming out of retirement. Mayo was the pick, and the right one. You have to remember that Wheatley was coming on before he got hurt. DRC is a very good player, and I was all for drafting him if they could have moved up (FROM THE 2ND RD) to grab him. But the Pats took the #7 pick in the draft and garnered their starting ILB and ROY plus another pick, you really can't ask for much more than that.

I guess that I'm the only one not ready to throw Wheatley and Whilite to the scrap heap. Like the guys who were calling Merriweather a bust last year at this time. The Pats defense is very complicated, and Wheatly and Whilite will be miles ahead of any CB they draft this year.

The Mayo trade and pick was the right thing last year. Because you have to add the 3rd rounder that the Pats got (Crable). Did you want the Pats to take DRC at 7? or even 10?

No, I wanted the Pats to draft DRC at #10 after their trade down, then I wanted a trade up in R2 using their existing 2 and a combo of their 3/5 aka, Okie/Slater to jump back up for Lofton.

Again, like I had mentioned, Mayo no question filled a glaring need and was the DROY and will be a stud for a long time in this defense. But I know for a fact that BB loved Cromartie alot, BB flew his scounts down to TSU to personally workout DRC just two days prior to the draft. We had just lost our #1 CB and needed to replace him and DRC, IMO, will end up being a better CB than Asante.

Was Okie a good pick?, yes, I like him alot, but in all honesty, he's probably not going to see the field over the next 4-5 years so his value will more than likely have to wait. Slater, is Slater, nothing special, but we'll give him time. So to me, yes, it's nice having Okie but you want to have guys impacting football games on the field "right now" or in the "very near future" at a time when you have Moss for 2 years and Brady at his peak for what might be 2-3 more years.

Drafting Okie was nice, but how does that help "Today's Team". I believe "Today's team", is better, if you had added a Curtis Lofton and Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie in place of the Mayo/Wheatley combo. Is Mayo better than Lofton, he is, but I think the difference between DRC and Wheatley exceeds the Mayo/Lofton difference. Lofton had a tremendous rookie season for Atlanta. Again, hear me out. I love Mayo, I am just giving my opinion on the "What IF" scenario and pair that I feel would have made the Patriots a better defense, especially in 2009.

 

[patchick]

But the Pats took the #7 pick in the draft and garnered their starting ILB and ROY plus another pick, you really can't ask for much more than that.

That's what it really comes down to: Mayo was a terrific pick. It's hard to argue with drafting the unanimous* ROY at a critical position that was a desperate need. Were there other terrific players available too? Sure, but you can't draft them all.

 

[patchick]

No, I wanted the Pats to draft DRC at #10 after their trade down, then I wanted a trade up in R2 using their existing 2 and a combo of their 3/5 aka, Okie/Slater to jump back up for Lofton.

OK...so suppose that hadn't worked. Clearly you can't count on moving up 30 spots in Round 2 before somebody else takes that one player you're banking on. What was your backup plan at ILB?

 

[VJCPatriot]

That's what it really comes down to: Mayo was a terrific pick. It's hard to argue with drafting the unanimous* ROY at a critical position that was a desperate need. Were there other terrific players available too? Sure, but you can't draft them all.

Almost unanimous. There was one vote for Rivers. Anyways I didn't think Rivers was a fit for our D. Mayo was the best choice and we got him later. Hindsight is 20/20.
DRC looks like he is on the way to being a great CB, but we don't know what we have in Wheatley yet, and Wilhite has looked decent.

 

[patchick]

Almost unanimous. There was one vote for Rivers.

That's why I put the asterisk there...the one guy who voted for Rivers later said it was just a mistake, he meant to vote for Mayo but had been writing an article about Rivers and the names got mixed up in his mind. So it was unanim*us.

 

[memento]

Almost unanimous. There was one vote for Rivers. Anyways I didn't think Rivers was a fit for our D. Mayo was the best choice and we got him later. Hindsight is 20/20.
DRC looks like he is on the way to being a great CB, but we don't know what we have in Wheatley yet, and Wilhite has looked decent.

the voter that voted for keith rivers (who was injured all year and didnt have a very impressive rookie season) admitted he made a mistake, he thought he was voting for philip rivers who he was doing another article on.

DRC looks to be a great cornerback, but mayo was the better pick no matter which way you cut it.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

the only player I would consider in place of mayo is clady

 

[VJCPatriot]

the only player I would consider in place of mayo is clady

I liked Clady as well, and felt he was worthy at #7 going by the 'planet theory'. I had no idea he'd have such an amazing rookie season though. Then again I had no idea Mayo would be DROY. DRC is well worth a 10-15 pick going by what he accomplished this year though.

I think that the point some people is making is - would DRC/Lofton be > Mayo/Wheatley. Interesting hypothetical but I don't think we realistically get Lofton with our #31 pick stripped.

 

[The_Riddler]

I think that the point some people is making is - would DRC/Lofton be > Mayo/Wheatley. Interesting hypothetical but I don't think we realistically get Lofton with our #31 pick stripped.

That's really all this is and nothing more. It's simply this:

Is the combination of DRC and Curtis Lofton better than the combination of Mayo and Wheatley.

My opinion, especially given Wheatley's injury situation (now both wrists), is the DRC/Lofton combo is the better combo, now and going forward. Even if Wheatley comes back fully healthy and has a pretty healthy career (not likely given what has already happened to him), he still won't have the impact that DRC has in the future, he's just not that type of player.

Wheatley at his peak, projects to be a "solid, starting NFL corner". DRC otoh, projects to be much more than that. Yet I do feel that Mayo will have the better overall career compared to Lofton, Lofton will still put up great numbers, but he projects to be a shade below Mayo's level.

 

[Deus Irae]

Welcome aboard, DRC vs. Mayo!

Clady over Mayo.

I still think that was the right call to make as opposed to Mayo over Clady, although whether you're talking about Clady, Mayo or DRC, "right" is a relative term based upon how you perceive the team's short and long term needs.

 

[Deus Irae]

the only player I would consider in place of mayo is clady

See, we can agree on some things.

 

[patchick]

That's really all this is and nothing more. It's simply this:

Is the combination of DRC and Curtis Lofton better than the combination of Mayo and Wheatley.

Riddler, it's NOT as simple as that. As many of us have said, DRC + Lofton was NOT an available option, the Patriots did NOT have that choice, so the question is as posed is pointless. At the very least make the hypothetical choice DRC + Lofton vs. Mayo + Flowers.

To put it another way, here is what you're currently saying: "Would you rather have #37 or pick #62? The Pats chose #62, I think that was a mistake, #37 would have been better."


BTW, I loved Clady too, and he had an extraordinary rookie season. But in terms of improvement to the Patriots' team, I'd say Mayo over nobody > Clady over Light.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

See, we can agree on some things.

I did say I would consider it.......if I did a draft today, I'd still take mayo but ability wise, clady is on par with mayo

 

[tanked_as_usual]

the only real killer of a bad deal was the pats moving up for chad jackson.......that year, the pats literally went out of their way to draft the worst pick in the 2nd round instead drafting.....I mean just go down the rest of the 2nd round........you could be a blind monkey and thrown a dart at the draft board, and 95 times out of 100 you would have hit better

5 37 Jimmy Williams Falcons DB Virginia Tech
6 38 Thomas Howard Raiders LB Texas-El Paso
7 39 Winston Justice Eagles T USC
8 40 Daniel Bullocks Lions DB Nebraska
9 41 Taitusi (Deuce) Lutui Cardinals G USC
10 42 Danieal Manning Bears DB Abilene Christian
11 43 Roman Harper Saints DB Alabama
12 44 Sinorice Moss Giants WR Miami (FL)
13 45 LenDale White Titans RB USC
14 46 Joe Klopfenstein Rams TE Colorado
15 47 Daryn Colledge Packers T Boise State
16 48 Cedric Griffin Vikings DB Texas
17 49 Kellen Clemens Jets QB Oregon
18 50 Marcus McNeill Chargers T Auburn
19 51 Ryan Cook Vikings C New Mexico
20 52 Greg Jennings Packers WR Western Michigan
21 53 Anthony Fasano Cowboys TE Notre Dame
22 54 Bernard Pollard Chiefs DB Purdue
23 55 Andrew Whitworth Bengals T Louisiana State
24 56 Chris Chester Ravens C Oklahoma
25 57 Devin Hester Bears WR Miami (FL)
26 58 Richard Marshall Panthers DB Fresno State
27 59 Jeremy Trueblood Buccaneers T Boston College
28 60 Maurice Jones-Drew Jaguars RB UCLA
29 61 Tony Scheffler Broncos TE Western Michigan
30 62 Tim Jennings Colts DB Georgia
31 63 Darryl Tapp Seahawks DE Virginia Tech
32 64 Tarvaris Jackson Vikings QB Alabama State