Would you TANK for Lawrence?

[captain stone]

I knew you were itching to reply to my post! I haven't compared anything because Stidham hasn't had enough reps to warrant one. And I am not fond of your evaluate deadline take. For example LOL...Joe Montana was 2-6 his first 2 years (Stidham hasnt had 2 years in the league yet)...them the facts. Do you think Walsh was glad he stuck with him instead of bail at the trade deadline? Sometimes...it works out.

If we're 2-6 at the deadline (though I feel there's a decent chance we could be 4-4) and Stid's coughing it up twice or more a game, then it's time to trade the vets for picks, play the kids (including Stid) for the rest of the season, and let the record be whatever the record will be...and then use our 2021 1st-rounder on a QB...

 

[Zuma]

If we're 2-6 at the deadline (though I feel there's a decent chance we could be 4-4) and Stid's coughing it up twice or more a game, then it's time to trade the vets for picks, play the kids (including Stid) for the rest of the season, and let the record be whatever the record will be...and then use our 2021 1st-rounder on a QB...

I would much rather prefer that. If the kid fails badly...then there will be consideration to take a QB high in the draft. Whether it happens or not is another question...but let the kid play out.

 

[n6249c]

Any draft pick is a crap shoot. And you have no idea how good Stidham might be.

What if Lawrence turns out to be another Ryan Leaf? And Stidham turns out to be a competent NFL starting QB? You want to tank for that?

 

[masterbouncer]

So, let's not have an backups and let's count on Stidham to take to us the playoffs because 20 YEARS AGO Belichick chose to keep Brady. Personally, I would have not have kept Bishop on the squad. And just BTW, Belichick waiting until the 6th to draft Brady.
=======
Please understand, the draft is about expected value. If late rounders are just as likely to be great, we should just trade our top picks. The reality is that, for any team, their top picks are more likely too be successful than there lower picks. There are lots of stats. You can check the percentage for success of various positions at various draft choices.
======
QUARTERBACKS
Most top QB's are drafted in the top 10. There are percentages after that. Even if a team is great at picking quarterbacks, they might be able to get late first round value in the 2nd, or 2nd round value in the 3rd, or 3rd round value in the 4th. The point is that even 2nd round value is unlikely to developing a top quarterback. That is why it is usually good policy too have a backup with potential.

I agree, the draft is about expected value, however there quite some number of first round QB that didn't do **** in the NFL and quite some QB below 3 round that did quite well. So it's not written in stone if you are not picked by end of round 2 you don't even need to think about starting this QB or trying to develop him. Of course chances are higher with a higher pick, since the expected higher value is picked earlier, but some QB do drop because of some circumstances in college which does not reflect there true abilities.

For me it seems many have "given up" on Stidham before he even played a game just because the expectations is he can't be any good as he is a 4th rounder.

I am not saying Stidham is the new goat, but he was a first round talent before the drop of in his senior year, which has to do more with the system he played in than the ability of him to be a good QB. There is a lot of room to improve and he has the right coaching with the Patriots to develop in a good QB and to have a system set up that benefits his strengths unlike in college.

Yet again, he has to show improvment, but you can't judge whether he is good or not good before he even had a full game played.

 

[luuked]

No matter the outcome...Stidham has to start the entire 2020 season. Then decide.

Difficult to see another scenario unless he completely ****s the bed to the point where the offense can't even function whether that is during camp (i.e. Hoyer starts the season) or during the season (i.e. Hoyer takes over).

And if he makes it through this year his evaluation will continue next season. There is not really a reasonable scenario where we come out of this year with some kind of confirmation that they found another franchise QB. For that he'd have to play as efficient as JG did in his 1.5 games over the entire season. And that is a crazy tough ask for a second year player.

Much more likely is that he will have some really good games and then also some stinkers. The important part will be to see how he performs under pressure, in clutch moments and how he deals with adversity. All things you can't really project based on practice reps.

I realize everyone wants answers fast but this will be a multi year project. Unless he completely ****s over himself and we know pretty early that he can't handle it.


Also the poll answers in this thread are the height of stupidity. Who in their right mind would equate tanking a season with some guarantee to win in the future. Who was the last QB picked first in his respective class that ended up being worth that pick ?

Why is being against tanking the equivalent of "winning now" ?

Where is the obligatory RLKAG ?

 

[Pats2000]

Am I down on Stidham. I expect him to be a better than average 4th round QB, in his second year, with no NFL reps. Perhaps, because the patriot offense is so talented, he might be as good as the average 3rd rounder.

So talented? I'm confused, this is the same crop of WR Brady couldn't do much with last year

 

[captain stone]

So talented? I'm confused, this is the same crop of WR Brady couldn't do much with last year

I think MGT is being a little facetious here...

 

[Patsgofor4]

If we're 2-6 at the deadline (though I feel there's a decent chance we could be 4-4) and Stid's coughing it up twice or more a game, then it's time to trade the vets for picks

By coughing it up, I assume that you are talking principally about INTs. So....you think that it is possible that at 8 games Stidham will be on pace to be top 5 of all time in INTs thrown in a season, with the potential to reach spot #2 on the list, while running an offense that BB and JMD tailored to fit his skill set?

 

[raduray]

Was the RLKAG emoji taken down because of what is going on in the country?

What is RLKAG?

 

[borisman]

What is RLKAG?

RayLewisKilledAGuy

 

[Hyped]

Me? I play to win as many games as possible, but at the same time gamble a bit so that it's either winning a SB or getting Lawrence....nothing in the middle.

 

[Scotty]

Raduray....dont worry took me a few days to work it out as well

 

[mgteich]

.

For example LOL...Joe Montana was 2-6 his first 2 years (Stidham hasnt had 2 years in the league yet)...them the facts. Do you think Walsh was glad he stuck with him instead of bail at the trade deadline? Sometimes...it works out.

Sure. Let let's see what Stidham can do in the next two years . Let's have no backups in 2020 and 2o21. Let us wait and see whether we have one of the top ten QB's of all time. If we can judge by the end of the 2021 season, then we can draft another 4th rounder in 2022 and sign another over-the hill backup to pay only when there is an injuries. Or perhaps, we can compromise and draft a 4th rounder in 2021 to replace Hoyer. This player can be the 2021 injury only backup, and be the automatic starter in 2022 if Stidham fails.

For me, this is NOT a reasonable plan. But that is just me.
======
BTW, Ian we need a ROFL choice.

 

[mgteich]

Me? I play to win as many games as possible, but at the same time gamble a bit so that it's either winning a SB or getting Lawrence....nothing in the middle.

Since neither is possible, are you simply skipping the season?

 

[Zuma]

Sure. Let let's see what Stidham can do in the next two years . Let's have no backups in 2020 and 2o21. Let us wait and see whether we have one of the top ten QB's of all time. If we can judge by the end of the 2021 season, then we can draft another 4th rounder in 2022 and sign another over-the hill backup to pay only when there is an injuries. Or perhaps, we can compromise and draft a 4th rounder in 2021 to replace Hoyer. This player can be the 2021 injury only backup, and be the automatic starter in 2022 if Stidham fails.

For me, this is NOT a reasonable plan. But that is just me.
======
BTW, Ian we need a ROFL choice.

I think Hoyer is a great backup in 2020 for Jarrett Ryan Stidham.

 

[mgteich]

I think Hoyer is a great backup in 2020 for Jarrett Ryan Stidham.

If we're 2-6 at the deadline (though I feel there's a decent chance we could be 4-4) and Stid's coughing it up twice or more a game, then it's time to trade the vets for picks, play the kids (including Stid) for the rest of the season, and let the record be whatever the record will be...and then use our 2021 1st-rounder on a QB...

If we were 2-6 at the deadline, a lot would spend on how the offense is playing, and the record of those in the division. If the team is improving, we could easily end with 4 wins. So, even at 2-6, I would see us having a chance winning the division.

Vets for picks really should only apply to players in their last season of their contract or players who will likely no be back in 2021, and this should happen only if we see no chance for the playoffs. For me, other than not touching the defensive backs, no one over 30 would necessarily be safe.

 

[mgteich]

I think Hoyer is a great backup in 2020 for Jarrett Ryan Stidham.

I suppose. There may not be much reduction in talent if he were forced to play.

 

[captain stone]

If we were 2-6 at the deadline, a lot would spend on how the offense is playing, and the record of those in the division. If the team is improving, we could easily end with 4 wins. So, even at 2-6, I would see us having a chance winning the division.

Vets for picks really should only apply to players in their last season of their contract or players who will likely no be back in 2021, and this should happen only if we see no chance for the playoffs. For me, other than not touching the defensive backs, no one over 30 would necessarily be safe.

If we're 2-6 at the trade deadline, then there's NFW we're winning the division with a 4-12 record, so we might as well deal away any of the vets who won't be here - if not in the league at all - by the time we're ready to be seriously competitive again...including the DBs...

 

[Patstastic]

It doesn't matter what we want. A BB coached team (With Edelman, HT, Gilmore, and a few others), aren't going to do worse than a Marrone coached Jags team (Who have a much worse roster than us). The Jags will get Lawrence. No doubt.

 

[scott99]

People don't know what tanking is, do they?

No team ever tries to lose. Players don't miss tackles or passes. Coaches don't say the stayed at a holiday inn and call the statue of liberty play or flea-flickers for fun. GMs however might make moves geared towards the future but sometimes that's needed depending on the player/contracts etc...

That's really all tanking is. Trading good players for picks that might not sign. Playing youth instead of steady vets to see what/if you have anything. That's not trying to lose.

I think going 8-8, staying mediocre is much worse. Some teams literally just want to be good enough to get their fans back. That's torture and completely unnecessary in today's game. It's a 2-3 year league.

Bill would/could never even think about throwing an entire year. I'm very excited for Stid. I really am. He's more than capable and I think he has a small chance to be a good starter. Really excited about his mobility and arm talent. Both more than legit.

If not they'll always be a more than a few QB's to choose from. There are 4-5 QB's I really, really like besides Lawrence. These next two classes have a lot of prospects that have potential. After that it looks like a drop from what I've seen from the young guys. Few and far between rn there.

It’s interesting you say, Stidham has a SMALL chance to be a good QB. I think he has a chance to be a good QB. I think people are underplaying Stidham’s ability. The kid has a good arm, good mobility, is very confident, is smart, and I’m psyched to see if he makes a good 2nd year jump.

I really think he will pleasantly surprise the doubters. You look at guys who have become good QBs who were drafted in the 3rd round or later recently, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and even Gardner Minshew had an excellent rookie season this year (21 TDS 6 INTs). Kyle Allen has some success. So it’s possible for Stidham to succeed, especially with the greatest head coach off all time coaching him.