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That is the thing that gets lost in all this "short yard" nonsense. If he manages to squeeze 3 yards out of something where another RB would have been caught in the backfield or for no gain this is still a big plus.
In what situation would you rather have second down ? 2nd & 7 or 2nd & 11 ?
Unfortunately there is no way to model "expected yards" in a play in any sensible way.
I just went back and watched all of Michel's carries this week. A few notes:
- Of Michel's 17 carries, 9 were 'successful' according to Football Outsiders' success rate stat. A 52.9% success rate is solidly good; before last night Michel's success rate on the season was 41%, and 52.9% would make him 10th in the league. Granted, this sample size is way too small to make any real proclamations: 1 more yard on his last carry and he's at 58%, which is elite territory. One fewer yard on the carry before that and he's at 47%
- Michel mostly ran out of obvious running formations, either as a single back or in the I formation. But he had two carries out of the shotgun in the 4th quarter. One at 11:37 that got 5 yards on 2nd and 4, and of course the other was the 34 yard touchdown at 7:15. He also had a nice pass block earlier in the game on a completion to Gronk, and on the first play of the 2nd quarter he and White lined up on either side of Brady in the shotgun and Michel had a nice 13 yard reception. Michel and White were both open, but it looks like Brady went to Michel first because he had the blockers. Smart play by the Pats, I think McDaniels was playing on the fact that the Colts weren't going to take Michel seriously as a receiving option (and for good reason).
- I'm optimistic that all of the above points suggest that the Pats may be more comfortable with Michel after the time he missed, and are starting to give him a more expansive and varied role. He was extremely effective running out of the shotgun last night, so if he can remain at least a reliably decent pass blocker and competent at releasing out of the backfield when he has no one to block, he'll help make the Pats more dangerous and hard to predict based on formation.
- Michel had one negative carry (he was hit 3 yards deep in the backfield, and one carry for no gain (2nd and goal from the 1, looked like he was in and might have been overturned to a touchdown if challenged). He was also hit in the backfield on one of his one yard gains.
- Of Michel's 5 carries in the 4th quarter, 4 of them counted as successes by success rate standards. And the one that didn't was one yard short.
- Of those fourth quarter carries, I already mentioned the two out of the shotgun (a first down on 2nd and 5 and the touchdown), but his 3 yard run on 1st and 10 at 3:23 was nice work that anyone who doesn't think he's a tough or decisive runner should go back and rewatch it. To someone who's just looking at the stat sheet it's 'just' a 3 yard run, but in reality 3 guys had shots at him in the backfield. He ran through 2 of them and carried the third guy for 3-4 yards, setting up a far more manageable down-and-distance that would have played a much bigger role in icing the game if Brady hadn't missed a wide-open White 2 plays later.
- Shaq Mason doesn't get nearly enough respect on this forum. I saw some posts last night of people suggesting that he wasn't living up to his new contract, but the guy is all over the field. His mobility and proficiency in space jumps off the screen every time I go back and rewatch, the guy is a monster. The aforementioned Michel reception at the start of the 2nd quarter was sprung by Mason getting outside and removing Geathers from the play. With a less athletic guard there's a good chance that play gets stopped for a loss. Also, on Michel's TD, Mason pulled and created the hole that Michel ran through by taking out Najee Good. I'd suggest that Michel should treat Mason to a nice steak dinner or something, but with their salary disparity under Mason's new contract probably not.
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