Who Is Sony Michel?

[BradyFTW!]

That is the thing that gets lost in all this "short yard" nonsense. If he manages to squeeze 3 yards out of something where another RB would have been caught in the backfield or for no gain this is still a big plus.

In what situation would you rather have second down ? 2nd & 7 or 2nd & 11 ?

Unfortunately there is no way to model "expected yards" in a play in any sensible way.

I just went back and watched all of Michel's carries this week. A few notes:

• Of Michel's 17 carries, 9 were 'successful' according to Football Outsiders' success rate stat. A 52.9% success rate is solidly good; before last night Michel's success rate on the season was 41%, and 52.9% would make him 10th in the league. Granted, this sample size is way too small to make any real proclamations: 1 more yard on his last carry and he's at 58%, which is elite territory. One fewer yard on the carry before that and he's at 47%
• Michel mostly ran out of obvious running formations, either as a single back or in the I formation. But he had two carries out of the shotgun in the 4th quarter. One at 11:37 that got 5 yards on 2nd and 4, and of course the other was the 34 yard touchdown at 7:15. He also had a nice pass block earlier in the game on a completion to Gronk, and on the first play of the 2nd quarter he and White lined up on either side of Brady in the shotgun and Michel had a nice 13 yard reception. Michel and White were both open, but it looks like Brady went to Michel first because he had the blockers. Smart play by the Pats, I think McDaniels was playing on the fact that the Colts weren't going to take Michel seriously as a receiving option (and for good reason).
• I'm optimistic that all of the above points suggest that the Pats may be more comfortable with Michel after the time he missed, and are starting to give him a more expansive and varied role. He was extremely effective running out of the shotgun last night, so if he can remain at least a reliably decent pass blocker and competent at releasing out of the backfield when he has no one to block, he'll help make the Pats more dangerous and hard to predict based on formation.
• Michel had one negative carry (he was hit 3 yards deep in the backfield, and one carry for no gain (2nd and goal from the 1, looked like he was in and might have been overturned to a touchdown if challenged). He was also hit in the backfield on one of his one yard gains.
• Of Michel's 5 carries in the 4th quarter, 4 of them counted as successes by success rate standards. And the one that didn't was one yard short.
• Of those fourth quarter carries, I already mentioned the two out of the shotgun (a first down on 2nd and 5 and the touchdown), but his 3 yard run on 1st and 10 at 3:23 was nice work that anyone who doesn't think he's a tough or decisive runner should go back and rewatch it. To someone who's just looking at the stat sheet it's 'just' a 3 yard run, but in reality 3 guys had shots at him in the backfield. He ran through 2 of them and carried the third guy for 3-4 yards, setting up a far more manageable down-and-distance that would have played a much bigger role in icing the game if Brady hadn't missed a wide-open White 2 plays later.
• Shaq Mason doesn't get nearly enough respect on this forum. I saw some posts last night of people suggesting that he wasn't living up to his new contract, but the guy is all over the field. His mobility and proficiency in space jumps off the screen every time I go back and rewatch, the guy is a monster. The aforementioned Michel reception at the start of the 2nd quarter was sprung by Mason getting outside and removing Geathers from the play. With a less athletic guard there's a good chance that play gets stopped for a loss. Also, on Michel's TD, Mason pulled and created the hole that Michel ran through by taking out Najee Good. I'd suggest that Michel should treat Mason to a nice steak dinner or something, but with their salary disparity under Mason's new contract probably not.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Not trying to cause butthurt. Just pointing out some facts for the think tank to ponder while patting themselves on the back.

Not trying to cause butthurt, but the only thing that post demonstrates is that you've failed to comprehend one of the most basic elements of the sport. Something to keep in mind before you pat yourself on the back too hard.

"But the vast majority of his carries went for 3 yards or less" is a 'criticism' that applies to every RB in modern NFL history. The vast majority of everyone's carries go for 3 yards or less, it's just a dumb hot that comes exclusively from people who don't understand what they're watching but want to complain anyway.

And also, the weird implication that getting 3 yards is a problem in its own right is misguided at best. Go watch his runs at 13:55 in the first quarter and 3:23 in the 4th quarter. Both went for 3 yards or less, but both were excellent carries. The first one converted a key third down on what ended up being a touchdown drive and the second one involved breaking two tackles and carrying a guy 4 yards to avoid a negative play.

 

[Triumph]

How many of those short runs were on the goal line?

Against a depleted Indy defense 3 run plays were more than 50% of his yardage.

Signs were encouraging last night when Sony got in space. Along the LOS not so much.

 

[Triumph]

Triumph says hold my beer.

Jack Butthurt.

 

[TB_Helmet]

Against a depleted Indy defense 3 run plays were more than 50% of his yardage.

Signs were encouraging last night when Sony got in space. Along the LOS not so much.

I assume you're just trolling with this because it doesn't look like you're even pretending to read any of the data that BradyFTW, Andy, or I are posting but I'll try again. In football, a few carries will contribute a large percentage to the total (and therefore average) rushing yards that an RB gets.

If you take Todd Gurley's top 12 carries this year (3 run plays each over four games) you find it adds up to 42% of his total rushing yards (not 50% but still the same point you're making especially considering a sample size of 1 game for Michel).

Todd Gurley 2018 Plays | Pro-Football-Reference.com

In 2017, 732 of his 1300 rushing yards came on 48 carries (again, 3 plays per game). That's over 50%. Same as Michel last night.

This is how statistics work.

 

[Ring 6]

I assume you're just trolling with this because it doesn't look like you're even pretending to read any of the data that BradyFTW, Andy, or I are posting but I'll try again. In football, a few carries will contribute a large percentage to the total (and therefore average) rushing yards that an RB gets.

If you take Todd Gurley's top 12 carries this year (3 run plays each over four games) you find it adds up to 42% of his total rushing yards (not 50% but still the same point you're making especially considering a sample size of 1 game for Michel).

Todd Gurley 2018 Plays | Pro-Football-Reference.com

In 2017, 732 of his 1300 rushing yards came on 48 carries (again, 3 plays per game). That's over 50%. Same as Michel last night.

This is how statistics work.

40 of his 79 this season have been for 3 or less.
Zeke Elliot 38 of 73 for 3 yards or less.
Saquan Barkley 34 of 56
Deion Lewis. 22 of 41
Alvin kanara 34 of 55
David Johnson 36 of 56
Melvin Gordon 31 of 54
Beast mode 38 of 68

Those are the first 8 I looked up and I’m sure that is plenty to prove the point.
Always good to teach people football.

 

[Galeb]

Against a depleted Indy defense 3 run plays were more than 50% of his yardage.

Signs were encouraging last night when Sony got in space. Along the LOS not so much.

You answered a completely different question than the one I asked. Can't help but wonder why.

 

[JackBauer]

Jack Butthurt.

Cringe

 

[ZoisKing]

Haven't read through the thread, but its pretty cool to see Michel fifth in the NFL in rushing yards.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Sure, he hasn't looked like the second coming of Walter Peyton but, from the eye test, it's odd that a Patriot fan would not see this rookie's play and not feel optimism.

It was good to see him getting plenty of time off the field too. He is a rookie and keeping him from hitting that rookie wall is important. We need Sony doing what he is doing now also doing it in December. And as the passing game gels, hopefully, and wears D's down, Sony's chances for solid yardage should expand in second halves of games.

 

[BTTA]

Against a depleted Indy defense 3 run plays were more than 50% of his yardage.

Signs were encouraging last night when Sony got in space. Along the LOS not so much.

You may be the only Patsfan poster who uses a selfie for their avatar.

 

[doesntmatter1]

Sony is what I have dreamed of for years: a home run threat. Hopefully he progresses and doesn't get stopped in the backfield so much but his speed and power have been impressive. I have seen countless plays throughout the years where we would open up a massive hole where the back would gain no more than 5-6 yards and I would look around the league and see other teams' running back turn similar holes to 20+ yard runs. Blount would rip off a few long ones from time to time, but it wasn't often enough and he was one dimensional. I think Sony is as close to Dillon as we are going to get.

 

[Triumph]

I assume you're just trolling with this because it doesn't look like you're even pretending to read any of the data that BradyFTW, Andy, or I are posting but I'll try again. In football, a few carries will contribute a large percentage to the total (and therefore average) rushing yards that an RB gets.

If you take Todd Gurley's top 12 carries this year (3 run plays each over four games) you find it adds up to 42% of his total rushing yards (not 50% but still the same point you're making especially considering a sample size of 1 game for Michel).

Todd Gurley 2018 Plays | Pro-Football-Reference.com

In 2017, 732 of his 1300 rushing yards came on 48 carries (again, 3 plays per game). That's over 50%. Same as Michel last night.

This is how statistics work.

I am going to wait before I start dancing on the roof over Sony.

Im glad that he busted off those long runs. The fact remains that the Colts defense was already banged up and they lost more players during the game.

 

[Triumph]

You may be the only Patsfan poster who uses a selfie for their avatar.

Not me.

But Im going to visit some folks like that today in Topeka. Friends of Jack Bauer is what they are.

 

[Triumph]

Sure, he hasn't looked like the second coming of Walter Peyton but, from the eye test, it's odd that a Patriot fan would not see this rookie's play and not feel optimism.

It was good to see him getting plenty of time off the field too. He is a rookie and keeping him from hitting that rookie wall is important. We need Sony doing what he is doing now also doing it in December. And as the passing game gels, hopefully, and wears D's down, Sony's chances for solid yardage should expand in second halves of games.

He reminds me of a Kevin Faulk like player at this moment.

So the 2nd half of games comment fits.

 

[Triumph]

You answered a completely different question than the one I asked. Can't help but wonder why.

4 of his rushes were 1st and goal.

22%. Not exactly bolstering your point that Sony was running into a brick wall for the better part of the game. I realize that Sony is likely not a goal line RB. I dont see the power like a Blount or Fornette. Not right now anyway.

 

[italian pat patriot]

Too early but he looks really good...i think he has then potential to be our best rb since a lot of time

 

[ZoisKing]

The results Sony is having on a rush by rush basis seem pretty standard for running backs as a whole. Most running backs will have some good runs, then some that get stuffed. AD is considered one of the best ever and he got stuffed a lot. That home run ability and ability to convert short runs to move the chains is what separates the good from the mediocre.

 

[primetime]

Against a depleted Indy defense 3 run plays were more than 50% of his yardage.

Signs were encouraging last night when Sony got in space. Along the LOS not so much.

This is a strange post for a guy stumping for Nick Chubb a few nights ago after he had 2 huge carries and a bunch of short ones this season.

The distribution of yardage for running backs tends to be highly skewed, and the majority of runs go for under 4 yards. It's why the mathematical mean of yards per carry doesn't tell you all that much; that success rate metric is a better option but still imperfect.

 

[mgteich]

Who is Michel?

a player who is not allowed to be injured