Who Is Sony Michel?

[Triumph]

Sony had 3 big runs totally 63 yards.

34
14
15

10 carries were 3 yards or less.

Not trying to cause butthurt. Just pointing out some facts for the think tank to ponder while patting themselves on the back.

 

[Galeb]

Not trying to cause butthurt. Just pointing out some facts for the think tank to ponder while patting themselves on the back.

How many of those short runs were on the goal line?

 

[JackBauer]

How many of those short runs were on the goal line?

What a stupid argument (his, not yours): "If you take away his best plays, he wasn't very good!"

 

[jah]

It's strange how his play style is so much more power and less finesse based than it was in college. Good because we need the former element more desperately than the latter but would still like him to play faster and quicker. Ball security has been surprisingly great.

I still think I was right a couple weeks ago when I said it's a stupid idea to rely on him and nobody else as the team's source of rushing yards. I don't understand why that pissed so many of you off.

 

[Froob]

We probably still need another back? Probably any ole Mike Cloud will do. Preferably one that can play special teams. I think they probably regret cutting Bolden with the Burkhead injury, but **** happens can’t really predict that.

 

[TB_Helmet]

Not trying to cause butthurt. Just pointing out some facts for the think tank to ponder while patting themselves on the back.

This is pretty weak analysis. An RBs average YPC is always a result of a distribution of all plays. For instance Todd Gurley was dominant in week 1 against the Raiders, yet half of his carries were also 3 yards or fewer. My guess is that this happens widely around the league. You can’t just take away the big plays that increase the average and use that to criticize the player.

 

[TB_Helmet]

Here’s a good article on the subject. It’s from 2009 but I doubt it’s changed that much. One important note is that the median YPC of almost every RB is 3. So a RB success is almost entirely defined by big plays (not including receptions, pass protection, etc).

Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Comparing Running Performance

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I think it's fair to use some sort of expected success rate when looking at YPC (a RB who goes -1, 1, -3, 2, -4, 0, 50 isn't generally the kind of player you're looking for), but not taking into account context (goal line, short yardage, 6 or 8 man box, etc) means that it's impossible to praise or to criticize a player for putting up 3 yards on most runs.

Michel is a good player who is only getting better. He should put up over 1000 yards rushing, and I think he'll integrate into the passing game a bit more as time goes on -- in fact, I suspect we'll see about 1400 total yards from scrimmage and around 10 touchdowns by the end of the season.

 

[JackBauer]

You can’t just take away the big plays that increase the average and use that to criticize the player.

Triumph says hold my beer.

 

[Nunchucks]

I think the shorter runs will get better as he gets more acclimated to the pro game. He still doesn't look quite right, but I feel like he is getting it.

 

[Ring 6]

Welcome to the sport of football. No rb gains 4 yards on every carry to get an average of 4 yards per carry.
Where you have to consider long runs as skewing the numbers is for example when a rb gains 100 yards on 20 carries and one of them was 85 yards.

In the case of Michel aside from his 34 yard TD he had 17/64 which is 3.8 per carry which is excellent for any rb with his best run removed.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Here’s a good article on the subject. It’s from 2009 but I doubt it’s changed that much. One important note is that the median YPC of almost every RB is 3. So a RB success is almost entirely defined by big plays (not including receptions, pass protection, etc).

Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Comparing Running Performance

Yeah, people who think it's some kind of indictment of Michel that has a lot of carries for 3 or fewer yards just fundamentally misunderstand how the NFL run game works. Even at Adrian Peterson's best most of his runs were for less than 4 yards.

 

[Kdo5]

I'm really liking Sony thus far. I thought he had a rough go of it in the Lions game but has played well in the rest of them. So far I wouldn't say he looks like any kind of game breaker but there's nothing wrong with that. As long as he makes our running game something that needs to be taken seriously by defenses that's good.

 

[TB_Helmet]

Yeah, people who think it's some kind of indictment of Michel that has a lot of carries for 3 or fewer yards just fundamentally misunderstand how the NFL run game works. Even at Adrian Peterson's best most of his runs were for less than 4 yards.

Right. The stats show that almost every RB in history has just about exactly half of his carries above 3 yards and exactly half below. If you’re complaining about the ones that go for below 3 yards then you’re just focusing on the negative for no reason. The thing to be worried about is if the half that are above 3 yards rarely go for much more than 3 or 4.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I think the shorter runs will get better as he gets more acclimated to the pro game. He still doesn't look quite right, but I feel like he is getting it.

Agree. I think health-wise hes getting there.

I remember an interview with Emmitt Smith he did after his rookie year (dating myself here) with I think Irv Cross. It might be on YouTube. He said physically he felt fine and he was OK with the offense. He knew the plays and the blocking scheme just fine. He said his biggest challenge was adapting to the speed of the defenses. How quickly DTs and DEs hit gaps shocked the hell out of him. He likened it to facing Outland Trophy winners at every position. How quickly LBs and strong safeties filled running lanes and screamed sideline to sideline was like deer running at him (he used to hunt I guess). He went on to say playing RB is kinda like being a baseball pitcher. You don't always want to hit the hole a full speed. Sometimes you do, but if you have an over aggressive D,a stutter step is a Rbs change up that can throw the entire run defense off and a running lane presents itself.

There is no doubt Sony has raw physical talent. The question is can he adapt and play fast, but not hurry.

 

[luuked]

I think it's fair to use some sort of expected success rate when looking at YPC (a RB who goes -1, 1, -3, 2, -4, 0, 50 isn't generally the kind of player you're looking for), but not taking into account context (goal line, short yardage, 6 or 8 man box, etc) means that it's impossible to praise or to criticize a player for putting up 3 yards on most runs.

Michel is a good player who is only getting better. He should put up over 1000 yards rushing, and I think he'll integrate into the passing game a bit more as time goes on -- in fact, I suspect we'll see about 1400 total yards from scrimmage and around 10 touchdowns by the end of the season.

That is the thing that gets lost in all this "short yard" nonsense. If he manages to squeeze 3 yards out of something where another RB would have been caught in the backfield or for no gain this is still a big plus.

In what situation would you rather have second down ? 2nd & 7 or 2nd & 11 ?

Unfortunately there is no way to model "expected yards" in a play in any sensible way.

 

[BradyFTW!]

That is the thing that gets lost in all this "short yard" nonsense. If he manages to squeeze 3 yards out of something where another RB would have been caught in the backfield or for no gain this is still a big plus.

In what situation would you rather have second down ? 2nd & 7 or 2nd & 11 ?

Unfortunately there is no way to model "expected yards" in a play in any sensible way.

I went back and watched every Michel carry against the Dolphins earlier this week, and IIRC there were only 3 where he got less than 3 yards, didn't get a first down, and wasn't hit in the backfield. And one of those was an outside run that went for 2 yards because he ran out of space after Cannon got beaten off the line and forced him to take a bad angle to the sideline.

 

[Kontradiction]

It's strange how his play style is so much more power and less finesse based than it was in college. Good because we need the former element more desperately than the latter but would still like him to play faster and quicker. Ball security has been surprisingly great.

I still think I was right a couple weeks ago when I said it's a stupid idea to rely on him and nobody else as the team's source of rushing yards. I don't understand why that pissed so many of you off.

I think he has a pretty good combo of both. He can juke you out of your jock in the open field and lower his shoulder to run through you if he has to.

 

[Tuck]

I'm impressed with him so far. Great speed, lateral movement, quickness and all that but the thing that stands out the most is, at impact, he usually makes the defender wish he wasn't in on the tackle.

 

[1960Pats]

This thread was one where the squeaky wheels got the most grease.