What Are Belichick's Draft Priorities

[denverpatsfan]

They will trade down for some marginal players that would be still available. No Pro Bowlers drafted in years tells you all you need to know. Shameful. Bobby Grier would do better!

 

[Bill Lee]

What's going to happen:
1. Trade out of the first, into the second, fourth, fifth, and pick #199.
2. Take a CB, S, and RB with first three picks.
3. Pick a QB at #199.
4. Sign three TE's as UDFA
5. Sit back and watch the media and Patsfans explode

Probably the most accurate post in this thread.

The thread projects BB drafting for need, but he doesn't do that, he drafts for value. That's why so many PatsFans get angry, they just don't understand how BB evaluates players. Sure, some times need and value overlap, but most of the time those who don't understand how BB drafts will end up angry because they can't get their head around anything but drafting for need.

I googled a bit and the best article I could find on BB's draft philosophy was Bill Belichick & draft philosophy which features Mike Lombardi who was on BB's staff here and in Cleveland back in the old days.

The best quote:

Bill is very analytical. Bill is all about not falling in love with a player. Bill is looking at value. He wants the correct definition of the player and the correct value of the player. When he determines that, then he understands where he can move around in the draft [with trades]. ... His whole approach is value -- 'if I trade down, I get better value.' But the key component as to why he's traded down all these years was the rising cost of rookie draft picks. He did not want to bring somebody into his locker room that was going to be in the top 5 payroll of his team.

I think we should be very skeptical of any reports of BB trading up in the top five or top ten to grab a QB. It'd be totally against his draft philosophy and against the idea of falling in love with one player.

Another good quote, from When it comes to pre-draft evaluation, Patriots' scouting formula different than most which is a poorly formatted article but has a LOT of insight on how the NE scouting/drafting system operates:

"They give their scouts a clear set of guidelines in what they are looking for," according to Dan Hatman, who has worked as a scout for the Giants, Jets and Eagles and now is the chairman of scouting development at The Scouting Academy. "In talking to scouts from New England, it might be the only team that I'm aware of with an internal scout school, for lack of a better term. "When they go out on the road for evaluations, they are given a very specific set of player profiles. They are not giving players grades by rounds like other teams. Instead, they look at how guys fit into their roster."

And we just saw some great tweets:



Note how this is not "We need a TE", this is "How would this TE fit into our system" and "What value do we think this TE will provide versus some other player at some other position".

When BB is on the clock he may need a TE, but if they only have No. 3 or No. 4 TEs on the board as ranked by how they fit into his system and there's a No. 2 or No. 1 safety, he's going to get that safety.

Or if he's sitting at a high draft pick and all the players on the board aren't rated highly in his system and he feels he can get them at a lower pick, he's going to trade down and try to get extra picks at the correct value for the player.

A lot of draftniks say "Is Player X is the best TE available in the draft?" whereas BB is asking "Do we think Player X will be a starter in his third year in our system?". It's a much more challenging question that BB asks.

 

[Chevrolet]

On the defensive side, clearly the emphasis will be at LB and the DL. On offense there is no question that TE needs to be addressed, and since this is such a deep draft at WR, and we have so many mid to late round picks, I'm sure we will pick up help there.

Elsewhere, Bill has drafted a QB at some point of the draft in almost every year, so drafting one from the 3rd round on would be no surprise.

I think we are OK at RB and the OL, so I don't see an early pick on the OL, UNLESS we release Cannon at some point before the draft. If that happens I wouldn't be surprised to see us go OT in the first, though it wouldn't be my first choice.

I expect Bill to want to get into the 2nd round by moving one of the 3rd round comp picks, plus a 4th in the 2o21 draft.

In my perfect world I'd love to see us go DL, TE, LB with our first 3 picks

I agree with your assessment. This year is unique because there are so many glaring holes in the team and therefore opportunities for rookies and UFA to get significant playing time.
Frequently BB drafts for upcoming need in the next 1-2 years (e.g. positions where a high profile player is expected to leave or current starters are getting long in the tooth).

Agree that LB is a critical positional need given Hightower's age and Van Not leaving. Desperately need an athletic rangy tough player. Would love to see Murray from Oklahoma

DT and DE end are critical needs also- with Shelton and Malcolm Brown gone and Lawrence Guy getting older a stud big body DT is a huge need

TE- obviously a big need area. Still hoping we could trade for Nkoju on the Browns as a stop gap measure. No one wirth taking in the first 2 or 3 rounds in my view

K- yes I would take Blankenship with a third rounder if he is still there

Safety- Need to inject some youth here

WR- this draft is SO deep. We need a Julian replacement and would look for a slot receiver in later rounds (e.g. Proche)


The only positional groupings we are set for time nbeing are OL and RB

 

[mgteich]

To me, the biggest question mark is at OL. And this is certainly the biggest priority question mark.

With QB, we are very likely to draft a QB; the question is how high. But that is only one pick. We are almost locked to pick one WR in 3rd or 4th, and perhaps one later. Again, this isn't a big question mark.
=============
AT ONE EXTREME
We extend Thunk. We think that Cannon is OK for a year or two. Everyone else is healthy. We'd need the usual couple of midlevel picks.

starters: Wynn, Thuney, Andrews, Mason, Cannon
backups: Eluemanor, Froholdt, Cajuste, Ferentz/draftee, draftee OT
=============
To the degree that this doesn't happen, there are relatively easy fixes. If Thuney is traded, there is plenty of can money to bring in a vet and have cap money needed for various things. If Cannon needs to go, his cap money can be used to pay for a vet.

The issue is whether an early pick needs to be used on the OL (before the 4th).

 

[captain stone]

...K- yes I would take Blankenship with a third rounder if he is still there...

Surely you can't be serious...3rd-round picks are for Real football players.

 

[Chevrolet]

Surely you can't be serious...3rd-round picks are for Real football players.

Look what Justin Tucker does for the Ravens. If he could be 2/3rds the player Tucker is he would be worth the price. But you are probably right...3rd is a bit high but maybe a fourth or a fifth

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Unless you are joking this is a terrible take and just flat out wrong.

Asante Samuel
Eugene Wilson
Ellis Hobbs
James Sanders
Brandon Meriweather (did not live up to the late first round hype but did have a 9 year NFL career)
Darius Butler
Patrick Chung
Devin McCourty
Tavon Wilson (yes, overdrafted but has had a very solid NFL career, much better the majority of the DBs drafted his year)
Logan Ryan
Duron Harmon
Darryl Roberts

Keion Crossen (TBD)
Joejuon Williams (TBD)
Ken Webster (TBD)

This list obviously doesn't mention the multiple undrafted free agent CB hits.

Have there been some bad misses? Sure...Dowling, Cy Jones, Richards (if not draft far too early, would be considered a "hit" just for his special teams talent)...but the same could be said for every single team in the NFL. BB's ability to spot and draft/sign young DB talent is as good as anyone in the league, especially when he does not have the luxury of picking a "sure thing" in the first 15-20 picks of the first round.

He literally just traded his 2nd rd DB pick from the 2018 draft before the beginning of the 2019 season for a 6th rd pick! How horrible drafting is that? Plus he traded up to make that pick. But don't worry he traded up again last year to select another CB in the 2nd rd who didn't play and is now most likely looking at a suspension!

2016 2nd rd on Cyrus Jones
2015 2nd rd on Jordon Richards

BTW he has already traded Crossen away too.

And this is the sword you want to fall on?

 

[Clonamery]

I think the only draft priority that BB should consider is making @captain stone happy for once.

 

[captain stone]

Look what Justin Tucker does for the Ravens. If he could be 2/3rds the player Tucker is he would be worth the price. But you are probably right...3rd is a bit high but maybe a fourth or a fifth

You do know the round in which Tucker was drafted, don't you?

 

[sean10mm]

So looking at the Patriots draft history at WR from 2000-present, there's Deion Branch, Julian Edelman, and then a yawning abyss.

Just yikes. Belichick is obviously great overall, but what a glaring blind spot that is.

 

[Patsgofor4]

He literally just traded his 2nd rd DB pick from the 2018 draft before the beginning of the 2019 season for a 6th rd pick! How horrible drafting is that? Plus he traded up to make that pick. But don't worry he traded up again last year to select another CB in the 2nd rd who didn't play and is now most likely looking at a suspension!

2016 2nd rd on Cyrus Jones
2015 2nd rd on Jordon Richards

BTW he has already traded Crossen away too.

And this is the sword you want to fall on?

I intentionally noted that there have been some bad misses, and specifically listed some examples, in an attempt to avoid an obvious response like yours. I should have known better than to trust the reading comprehension of some posters.

Once again, despite a few major flops, which every team has at every position, he has had very good success in drafting DBs since he has been picking the groceries for the patriots. It may not seem that way if somebody started following the patriots 4 years ago.

Crossen was traded because of the quality and depth of their DBs....The defensive backfield Assembled by the coach/GM who some posters feel has no eye for DB talent. They were not going to be able to fit him on the 53 man roster and they knew that they had no chance to slip him onto the practice squad, so they acquired an asset for him. They found a useful CB from a small school and drafted him in the late seventh round. The following season they traded him for a sixth round pick. If you consider that a failure, you kind of lose all credibility.

PS. "How horrible drafting is that?"
Fun proper English and sentence structure are.

 

[captain stone]

So looking at the Patriots draft history at WR from 2000-present, there's Deion Branch, Julian Edelman, and then a yawning abyss.

Just yikes. Belichick is obviously great overall, but what a glaring blind spot that is.

There's also David Givens, but other than those 3...crickets...

 

[Kasmir]

He literally just traded his 2nd rd DB pick from the 2018 draft before the beginning of the 2019 season for a 6th rd pick! How horrible drafting is that? Plus he traded up to make that pick. But don't worry he traded up again last year to select another CB in the 2nd rd who didn't play and is now most likely looking at a suspension!

2016 2nd rd on Cyrus Jones
2015 2nd rd on Jordon Richards

BTW he has already traded Crossen away too.

And this is the sword you want to fall on?

He assembles the best secondary in the league but you think he doesn't know how to evaluate DB's, and your evidence is that unlike you, he makes mistakes. Right.

 

[captain stone]

He assembles the best secondary in the league but you think he doesn't know how to evaluate DB's, and your evidence is that unlike you, he makes mistakes. Right.

"Best secondary in the league"...Right... Ask Fitzy what he thinks of the Best Secondary in the League...

 

[BTTA]

"Best secondary in the league"...Right... Ask Fitzy what he thinks of the Best Secondary in the League...

I continually forget to ask Fitzy for his thoughts on things. Just the other day, I made a stock trade completely blind of his views. I did by a car from a Fitzgerald dealership here in Maryland recently, however.

 

[Kasmir]

"Best secondary in the league"...Right... Ask Fitzy what he thinks of the Best Secondary in the League...

You're right, that was hyperbole. This should be better "He assembles what is widely regarded to be the best secondary in the league"

Then again, I'm not sure if you really have a problem with hyperbole.

 

[NormZauchin]

I continually forget to ask Fitzy for his thoughts on things. Just the other day, I made a stock trade completely blind of his views. I did by a car from a Fitzgerald dealership here in Maryland recently, however.

As did I, a number of years ago.

 

[BTTA]

I continually forget to ask Fitzy for his thoughts on things. Just the other day, I made a stock trade completely blind of his views. I did by a car from a Fitzgerald dealership here in Maryland recently, however.

As did I, a number of years ago.

Which, exactly?

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Don't think we'd take an interior OL with our 1st pick either.
.

I think a center could be a possibility, given we don't know the health of Andrews at this point...maybe someone like Cesar Ruiz?

 

[scott99]

We literally have NOTHING at TE. For an offense that ALWAYS succeeded when they ran a 2 TE offense, with TEs that can actually catch the ball and be weapons, this is obviously the biggest need.

It may not be the best TE class, but there are TEs in this draft that can turn this offense into a good to great offense again. Watch ANY good offense, and the TE is always the QBs security blanket, especially a young QB. They MUST come out of this draft with at least one GOOD pass catching TE. This offense will not succeed without it (see last year)

Also, this team MUST draft an explosive WR that can scare defenses. A Denzel Mims type, Chase Claypool, one of those types. If Jalen Reagor is available, jump all over him. This offense can’t compete with the KCs and Baltimores of the AFC if they don’t have explosive weapons.

The biggest weakness on this team is lack of explosive weapons. They ****ed up last year by trading up for their yearly round 2 DB bust, instead of staying put and double dipping at WR, or grabbing a WR & a TE. Mecole Hardman and DK Metcalf were selected in our original spots in round 2 last year. Hardman was exactly who this offense needs. There are a few similar players in this years draft, they need to correct last year’s ****up.