What Are Belichick's Draft Priorities

[NormZauchin]

Which, exactly?

Buy a car from a Fitzgerald dealership.

 

[Chevrolet]

Probably the most accurate post in this thread.

The thread projects BB drafting for need, but he doesn't do that, he drafts for value. That's why so many PatsFans get angry, they just don't understand how BB evaluates players. Sure, some times need and value overlap, but most of the time those who don't understand how BB drafts will end up angry because they can't get their head around anything but drafting for need.

I googled a bit and the best article I could find on BB's draft philosophy was Bill Belichick & draft philosophy which features Mike Lombardi who was on BB's staff here and in Cleveland back in the old days.

The best quote:

I think we should be very skeptical of any reports of BB trading up in the top five or top ten to grab a QB. It'd be totally against his draft philosophy and against the idea of falling in love with one player.

Another good quote, from When it comes to pre-draft evaluation, Patriots' scouting formula different than most which is a poorly formatted article but has a LOT of insight on how the NE scouting/drafting system operates:

And we just saw some great tweets:



Note how this is not "We need a TE", this is "How would this TE fit into our system" and "What value do we think this TE will provide versus some other player at some other position".

When BB is on the clock he may need a TE, but if they only have No. 3 or No. 4 TEs on the board as ranked by how they fit into his system and there's a No. 2 or No. 1 safety, he's going to get that safety.

Or if he's sitting at a high draft pick and all the players on the board aren't rated highly in his system and he feels he can get them at a lower pick, he's going to trade down and try to get extra picks at the correct value for the player.

A lot of draftniks say "Is Player X is the best TE available in the draft?" whereas BB is asking "Do we think Player X will be a starter in his third year in our system?". It's a much more challenging question that BB asks.

This must be 100% true, because under BB's drafting system no one will have any clue about who he is going to draft because he does not draft for positional need and other than the scouts ...no one will know what specific traits for the Patriots he values highly. This fits very we'll with the concept that draft gurus like McShay and Kiper have no clue what he is looking for.

It also explains why he does not like to draft in the top 10, because he does not want rookies making that much cash.

 

[Scotty]

On a lighter note I see that BB has been on an IT crash course....can you imagine the announcement "and with the 23rd pick the New England Patriots select.
"......silence.......Bill are you there.....hello .....then a voice in the background "stupid thing , which button do I press.....Ooops did I select a special teams player......d*** thing

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

He assembles the best secondary in the league but you think he doesn't know how to evaluate DB's, and your evidence is that unlike you, he makes mistakes. Right.

Ryan Fitzpatrick's Magical Final Drive Defeats Patriots

I guess you forgot about this.

The "best secondary in the league" couldn't stop Ryan Fitzpatrick and a 4-11 team from basically ending their season.

Much like WR, BB is very good at evaluating talent already in the NFL, the guys he has brought in to play secondary have been outstanding, his draft picks however, have been mostly reaches that did not pan out.

 

[BTTA]

Buy a car from a Fitzgerald dealership.

In many of their MD dealerships, there are small monitors in the lobby playing a loop that's promoting my wife's nonprofit. She joined me during one of the visits in February. It was weird for me, her, and the staff to have her walk in to the lobby while a video of her speaking was playing on that screen. The staff was actually doing the "celebrity over the shoulder hesitation look" when they walked by. It was hilarious.

 

[BTTA]

Ryan Fitzpatrick's Magical Final Drive Defeats Patriots

I guess you forgot about this.

The "best secondary in the league" couldn't stop Ryan Fitzpatrick and a 4-11 team from basically ending their season.

Much like WR, BB is very good at evaluating talent already in the NFL, the guys he has brought in to play secondary have been outstanding, his draft picks however, have been mostly reaches that did not pan out.

The fact that you were greatly disappointed doesn't increase the impact of a single anecdote in evaluating the overall trend.

Sometimes I think half of humanity's problems would be solved if we could eliminate decisions about strategic and long term issues based on a recent highly emotional experience of them.

 

[mgteich]

.

It also explains why he does not like to draft in the top 10, because he does not want rookies making that much cash.

???

Please list all the times Belichick has had a top 10 pick, and support why you think he doesn't use those picks. As I recall, Belichick used top 10 picks to draft McGinist, Seymour and Mayo. When he had a 14th (not quite top 10), he traded up to 13 to get Warren.

Belichick doesn't like to have a top 10 pick because it usually means that we've an unsuccessful season.

 

[Chevrolet]

???

Please list all the times Belichick has had a top 10 pick, and support why you think he doesn't use those picks. As I recall, Belichick used top 10 picks to draft McGinist, Seymour and Mayo. When he had a 14th (not quite top 10), he traded up to 13 to get Warren.

Belichick doesn't like to have a top 10 pick because it usually means that we've an unsuccessful season.

BB did not draft Mcginest!

The Mayo pick he actually traded down 3 spots from 6 to 9

He will not trade UP into the top 10. If he were to have a top 10 pick he probably would keep it

 

[mgteich]

BB did not draft Mcginest!

.

my bad

 

[mgteich]

BB did not draft Mcginest!

The Mayo pick he actually traded down 3 spots from 6 to 9

He will not trade UP into the top 10. If he were to have a top 10 pick he probably would keep it

So, you now accept that the patriots and Belichick would use their top 10 pick if they had one.

You're down to the belief that if the patriots would never trade into the top 10. So, you believe that if the patriots were within easy range of the top 10, say 11-15, we would reject moving up, even for a blue chip player he really wanted. IMO, there is ZERO evidence to support this assertion. And, I certainly don't believe that Belichick holds this view.
======
NOW, for the 2020 draft, since we are at 23, I suspect that Belichick that doesn't think that any player would be worth the draft ammunition it would take to move into the top 1o.

 

[mgteich]

Just BTW, if Tua were available at 10 (or even at 8), I would think at least a third of the posters here would favor sending our 2020 1st, 2021 1st and a 3rd or two to move up (the alternative being 2 firsts, a 2021 2nd and a 2020 3rd).

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Bill drafts a prospect when value meets need. If you can't see that after 20 years Idk what to tell you. If you don't think need is factored in, you're either not paying attention or think it's a bad thing from the narrative that "drafting for need is a bad thing". Literally every GM, every round, every year, drafts for need.

 

[mgteich]

Bill drafts a prospect when value meets need. If you can't see that after 20 years Idk what to tell you. If you don't think need is factored in, you're either not paying attention or think it's a bad thing from the narrative that "drafting for need is a bad thing". Literally every GM, every round, every year, drafts for need.

I strongly agree. Let us say that the highest rated player is a CB. We would NOT draft a corner at 23. Of course that is because CB's are demoted in value on Bill's 2020 list.

 

[Bill Lee]

This must be 100% true, because under BB's drafting system no one will have any clue about who he is going to draft because he does not draft for positional need and other than the scouts ...no one will know what specific traits for the Patriots he values highly. This fits very we'll with the concept that draft gurus like McShay and Kiper have no clue what he is looking for.

It also explains why he does not like to draft in the top 10, because he does not want rookies making that much cash.

You might want to open this tweet and look at the typewritten notes BB gave to his scouts in 1991:



You can almost hear BB's voice when you read them.

I'm sure some things are different now 30 years later, but then again, some probably are not.

 

[Uptown]

K
ST
S (2)
LS
OL
TE

In that order

 

[NormZauchin]

Just BTW, if Tua were available at 10 (or even at 8), I would think at least a third of the posters here would favor sending our 2020 1st, 2021 1st and a 3rd or two to move up (the alternative being 2 firsts, a 2021 2nd and a 2020 3rd).

Not me. Cost would be too high, even if there was not a question of his recovery from the hip injury. If Stidham falls on his face, as some posters here expect, our draft position next year will be considerably better than 23. It might even be top ten. In the meantime, we will have shored up a position like linebacker or interior defensive line with this year's first rounder. If Stidham performs well, we will have found our quarterback of the future and the pick(s) would have been wasted.

 

[mgteich]

Not me. Cost would be too high, even if there was not a question of his recovery from the hip injury. If Stidham falls on his face, as some posters here expect, our draft position next year will be considerably better than 23. It might even be top ten. In the meantime, we will have shored up a position like linebacker or interior defensive line with this year's first rounder. If Stidham performs well, we will have found our quarterback of the future and the pick(s) would have been wasted.

I don't know about Tua, but if we aren't planning to compete for the playoffs, then we should trade or cut those who aren't part of the future (e.g. Sanu, Chung and Edelman).
To me, not even having competition for Stidham signals not wanting to really compete this year.

 

[Uptown]

 

[Ivan]

Just bored a couple of weeks from the draft. I suspect that Belichick's priorities for our early picks (first 3 rounds) are different than for many posters here.

MY GUESS (not even counting QB which is a possible 1st round pick)
LB
EDGE
OT
TE
IOL
WR

Personally, putting TE on the list is a hope that Belichick drafts a TE.

if Murray is on the board I take him. It would be really hard to do better at #23

 

[NormZauchin]

I don't know about Tua, but if we aren't planning to compete for the playoffs, then we should trade or cut those who aren't part of the future (e.g. Sanu, Chung and Edelman).
To me, not even having competition for Stidham signals not wanting to really compete this year.

It all turns on Stidham. He has a year of experience calling the signals in practice, often with the first team offense against the best secondary in the league. The learning curve is the steepest in the rookie season. I think it would take an extraordinary talent to come in and displace Stidham as the likely number one QB based on training camp and preseason competition, particularly this year, when camps and the preseason are likely to be dramatically shortened. In the meantime, a good first round pick at, say linebacker, will strengthen the defense and relieve whoever starts at quarterback of having to put up 30 points per game to win.