NFL GAME DAY DISCUSSION Week 15 pre-game thread: Patriots vs Colts

[Zuma]

 

[Nunchucks]

Nickel is our base

Yes, but I suspect they will play with 4 dbs. Due to the Colts offense. Are you being obtuse on purpose?

 

[Ring 6]

Yes, but I suspect they will play with 4 dbs. Due to the Colts offense. Are you being obtuse on purpose?

Are you? Our base defense is 5 dbs. Indy’s base offense is 3 wide. We aren’t going to commit to covering 3 wide with 2 corners and 2 safeties. We NEVER do.
If we intend to strengthen the run D we do it by playing 3 300 lb + DL along with 3 LBs and a safety in the box.
It’s what we do.

 

[Mack Herron]

I count 10 DBs on the roster. Just a matter of time till he unveils the 1-10.

 

[patfanken]

Belichick this morning:

I really like this tweet. Given the choice Bill would always rather line up in a 3-4 That's why Henry Anderson was signed. He can play the 3-4 DE. To be effective you need 3 big strong guys who can hold the point of attack against double teams. Wise is certainly willing and sometimes effective, BUT at 270lbs he just can't do it CONSISTENTLY enough.

BTW- This has been a largely healthy season relatively speaking. However the injuries to Anderson and White in particular were painful. Imaging having a guy like James White available for Mac all season. We've rarely passed the ball to RB's all season and White was a guy who averaged 5 or 6 targets a game by himself. We've missed that. Anderson, like I mentioned above was supposed to give the Pats a strong presence at the 3-4 DE. He's been gone all season. And don't forget the 7 game absence of Trent Brown.

 

[patfanken]

Are you? Our base defense is 5 dbs. Indy’s base offense is 3 wide. We aren’t going to commit to covering 3 wide with 2 corners and 2 safeties. We NEVER do.
If we intend to strengthen the run D we do it by playing 3 300 lb + DL along with 3 LBs and a safety in the box.
It’s what we do.

We CAN play a base 4 DB secondary because both Philips and Bryant have CB quickness enough to cover a slot receiver. And I think while Dugger might not have the straight line speed to cover a receiver deep, he also has great short area quickness

Also while the Colts are strong on the OL and RB, they are not blessed with earth shattering WR talent. While we have been very effective playing zone a lot the past few weeks because our rush has been so successful, against this OL, I wouldn't be surprised to see us go back to a lot more man coverages. One because I don't see us getting to the QB as much as we recently have, and two, because this is a receiver group that we CAN play more man and get away with it.

Also, Don't forget that Dugger is an IMPACT player for our defense. When he isn't in there the defense loses a lot of its flexibility as well a guy, like Kevin Byard, who can make multiple plays on the LOS AND in the secondary.

Wentz ISN'T the kind of QB who can move a team down the field on 10-14 play drives WITHOUT the running game gaining most of the yardage. Wentz in a statement claimed that the Colts WILL run the ball successfully against the Pats. Frankly, I don't doubt they will.....to some degree. It's just how you define successful. Normally if a team ran the ball for around 120 yds you'd call that a good day for the run game. If that's what the Pats give up on Saturday, then Bill would call that a successful day....for the defense.

If the Pats give up around that number then the Colts are going to need at least 250 to 300 yds in the passing game to win this game. If they give up that many passing yds, then they deserve to lose this game

On the other hand, the Colt defense is good and they have the advantage of home field piped in sound. But they aren't THAT good that they can shut down the Pats run game any more than the Bills did. But I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Mac have a 300 yd game using a lot of play action passes and the TE's a lot more.

In the end, after all this talk about the run and passing game numbers, the only REAL number that is going to matter in the end, like most games, is the TO ratio. If its -2 or worse, we are going to lose. If its even or better, then a win is in the offing.

 

[sb1]

Protect the football. If we're careless like earlier in the season the Colts WILL take advantage of that. Their defense has not been shut out yet for getting turnovers in a game. Averaging 2 1/4 forced turnovers per game.

 

[Vindicate]

Protect the football. If we're careless like earlier in the season the Colts WILL take advantage of that. Their defense has not been shut out yet for getting turnovers in a game. Averaging 2 1/4 forced turnovers per game.

Thanks for the turnover stats, I didn't realize they were that prolific.

Looks like their secondary is more suspect than their defensive line, based on a quick look at those yardage #'s.

Where do they create those turnovers? Ball hawk secondary or punchy dline?

 

[Ring 6]

We CAN play a base 4 DB secondary because both Philips and Bryant have CB quickness enough to cover a slot receiver. And I think while Dugger might not have the straight line speed to cover a receiver deep, he also has great short area quickness

Also while the Colts are strong on the OL and RB, they are not blessed with earth shattering WR talent. While we have been very effective playing zone a lot the past few weeks because our rush has been so successful, against this OL, I wouldn't be surprised to see us go back to a lot more man coverages. One because I don't see us getting to the QB as much as we recently have, and two, because this is a receiver group that we CAN play more man and get away with it.

Also, Don't forget that Dugger is an IMPACT player for our defense. When he isn't in there the defense loses a lot of its flexibility as well a guy, like Kevin Byard, who can make multiple plays on the LOS AND in the secondary.

Wentz ISN'T the kind of QB who can move a team down the field on 10-14 play drives WITHOUT the running game gaining most of the yardage. Wentz in a statement claimed that the Colts WILL run the ball successfully against the Pats. Frankly, I don't doubt they will.....to some degree. It's just how you define successful. Normally if a team ran the ball for around 120 yds you'd call that a good day for the run game. If that's what the Pats give up on Saturday, then Bill would call that a successful day....for the defense.

If the Pats give up around that number then the Colts are going to need at least 250 to 300 yds in the passing game to win this game. If they give up that many passing yds, then they deserve to lose this game

On the other hand, the Colt defense is good and they have the advantage of home field piped in sound. But they aren't THAT good that they can shut down the Pats run game any more than the Bills did. But I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Mac have a 300 yd game using a lot of play action passes and the TE's a lot more.

In the end, after all this talk about the run and passing game numbers, the only REAL number that is going to matter in the end, like most games, is the TO ratio. If its -2 or worse, we are going to lose. If its even or better, then a win is in the offing.

Phillips will get torched covering WRs man to msm and gas literally never done that here.
How are you playing 4 DBs with Bryant in there? Benching both Dugger and Phillips?
Wentz has more yards more TDs and about the same # of passing first downs as Jones (139 to 142).
We never have ( in many years) and simply won’t play 4 dbs against 3 wides.

 

[TheRainMaker]

ESPN First Take thought this game was tomorrow night. 2:00 mark.

 

[sb1]

Thanks for the turnover stats, I didn't realize they were that prolific.

Looks like their secondary is more suspect than their defensive line, based on a quick look at those yardage #'s.

Where do they create those turnovers? Ball hawk secondary or punchy dline?

Good question. Maybe both? Top 5 in INTs in the league. They also lead the league in fumbles recovered (14) - that's as many as their forced fumbles so maybe a bit of luck there too.

Like with any fast aggressive defense like the Colts I think they can be had attacking the edge instead of the interior...

 

[sb1]

Et tu Vinatieri? I know more of his career was as a Colt than a Patriot but...dang.

 

[sb1]

Dude....

 

[Wax Frog]

I count 10 DBs on the roster. Just a matter of time till he unveils the 1-10.

Just once before I die I want to see an 11 man blitz

 

[Ring 6]

Just once before I die I want to see an 11 man blitz

You came close on Harris’ TD run against the bills.

 

[catent]

Thanks for the kicks … but banging the anvil for those deflategate sacks of sh*t, in a game against the Pats? Hard pass.

Take care, Adam.

 

[Pats2000]

The colts are running the same offense as the eagles when the eagles won a super bowl against us. Hopefully bb has answers now that he did not have then!

The only reason the Eagles won that superbowl is because a) the Patriots forgot how to tackle that game, they had the Eagles receivers behind the 1st down marker on 3rd down multiple times that game and couldn't finish the tackle, and b) Folk played out of his mind. The dude did not miss a throw at any level on the field that game. Throw after throw was on a dime. That had to have been the single best game he ever played.

I don't think Wentz plays anywhere near as good as Folk played that game, and the Pats know how to tackle this season.

 

[Pats2000]

Nearly all our players traveled on the bye week, so now I'm holding my breath on the Covid front. Covid really going to be the wild card for the remaining games for all teams (more so in the Northeast, Midwest and Southwest right now). When Omicron arrives (guess mid-January) we'll see renewed big outbreaks in the South too, as immunity from infection (or vaccination unless recently boosted) won't protect against getting it (may not be severe though with luck).

Here is a current map of per capita cases, which is what is relevant from perspective of NFL.

Omicron is here, by mid january it will have 1/3 of the country the way it's moving.

 

[Pats2000]

I don't think they'll like the results of that. The Titans made him one dimensional and he threw for 310 yards and 2 TD's.

 

[Pats2000]

The team you SHOULD be afraid of is the rampaging Chiefs. The Ravens are a one trick pony. They are very good at that trick, but its all they have. No plan B for them and that is their weakness. Also they are a game behind us now.

There are only 2 teams with the same record as us. The Chiefs who have more loses in the conference, and the Titan whom we beat.

I still don't think the Chiefs offense is clicking, outside of the Raiders who have turned into a dumpster fire, who have they point any real points up against?