The Wells Report violates Gas Laws and, therefore, is rejected.

[tom.kordis]

I just sent 2 emails to the Pats' organization.

This post is simple, straightforward & to the point.

The next one lays the theoretical & experimental justification for the first.

To: Pats Organization
From: Tom Kordis


Just to be absolutely clear with you …

The Wells Report FAILS on its own lack of merit.

It does not matter one iota whether the Patriots did or did not let air out of their balls. (Although we both know the answer to that question.)

1. The simple, single fact of using the Wells Report asserted values for T1, P1, T2 & P2 PROVES that it is wrong. Incompetent.

2. It is wrong because it produces a Pressure Lapse Rate (∆P / ∆T) of 0.028 psi / °F.

3. And the entire scientific & engineering world knows that this value is simply wrong.

FULL STOP.

You don’t have to into any more detail than printing out sentences 1, 2 & 3 above, in order to prove that the Well Report belongs in the trash.

You can share this with anyone you wish.

 

[tom.kordis]

To: Pats Organization
From: Tom Kordis

I strongly believe that I have the solid PROOF, mathematical proof, that the Wells report is wrong. Just simply wrong.

We know it has to be wrong.

Here it is, in a nutshell:

1. We KNOW, from your experiments & mine, that the Pats balls deflated exactly the right amount, as demanded by physics & Mother Nature. There is NO way around this statement.

2. We KNOW, if we believe the referees measurements (and I do believe them!) that the Colts’ balls deflated by a lower amount. While their measurement technique was sloppy and the data may have been absolutely (i.e., measured against calibrated standards) inaccurate, the data is relatively (i.e., comparatively between the Pats’ balls & the Colts’ balls) accurate.

3. We KNOW that, in order for the Colts’ balls to have deflated less, the temperature difference that they experienced had to be less. There is no way around this.

4. We KNOW that both sets of balls equilibrated to very close to the same final temperature. This is simply because the outdoors, the grass, the rain, the balls being thrown, dropped etc. is a much better thermal reservoir than sitting anywhere in stagnant air at any temperature. Any differences in internal temperature between individual balls (due to non-use, different amount of use, etc) are going to be relatively small, and will not explain the gross, large difference in pressure loss.

5. The combination of 2., 3, & 4 leads to only one conclusion: The temperature of the air inside the Colts’ balls must have been less, significantly less, 11° to 13°F less, than the temperature of the Pats’ balls when they were gauged before the game.


So we’ve been looking at this backward.
The issue is not “Why was the pressure drop in the Pats’ balls so high?"

The real issue is, “Why was the pressure drop in the Colts’ balls so low?"

There’s only one answer: the temperature drop in the Colts balls was lower than expected.

The rest of this is:

1) Proof that the pressure drop in the Pats’ balls was correct.
2) A calculation of what was the temperature of the air inside the Pats’ balls.
3) A calculation of what was the real temperature of the air inside the Colts’ balls.
4) A solid proof that the Wells Reports assumptions, methods & results are simply wrong.
__

Here is the mathematical proof, using the data taken from the Wells Report itself) that proves that (the temperature in the Colts balls was lower than Exponent Labs assumed):

As we all know:

P1 / T1 = P2 / T2

P2 = P1 * (T2/T2)

When we run the numbers, using the following starting P1 & T1, and the final temp T2:
P1 = (12.5 psig + 14.7) psia = 27.2 psia
T1 = (74°F + 460)°R = 534°R
T2 = (49°F + 460)°R = 509°R
we get, that the resultant pressure MUST BE:
P2 (theoretical) = 27.2 psia * (509°R / 534°R) = 25.9 psia = (25.9 psia - 14.7) psig = 11.2 psig.
This is right, according to theory.

When we run the experiment, we find a slighter greater pressure drop, and a slightly lower final pressure.
P2 (experimental) = 11.0 psig.

We’ve all tentatively concluded that the soaking of the leather causes the balls to swell slightly, thereby lowering the final pressure. That’s probably the main factor, certainly not the only factor, if one wants to create a PhD thesis out of it.

But it really doesn’t matter here what the exact reason is: "Experiment Trumps Theory."
And this is exactly how real engineering works: theory gets you close, experiment gets you home.

Everything about the theory & our experiments is correct.
And is exactly as a technically savvy person would expect.
__

From the above numbers, we can calculate the Pressure Lapse Rate (PLR), which equals the change in pressure divided by the change in temperature: ∆P / ∆T = (P2 - P1) / (T2 - T1)

Theoretical PLR:
PLR = ∆P / ∆T = (11.2 - 12.5) psig / (49°F - 74°F) = 0.052 psi / °F

Experimental PLR:
PLR = ∆P / ∆T = (11.0 - 12.5) psig / (49°F - 74°F) = 0.052 psi / °F = 0.060 psi / °F.

Note that we used the theoretical P2 (11.2 psig) in the first calculation, and the experimental P2 (11.0 psig) in the second.

You’ve seen all of these numbers before, if you’ve managed to stay awake thru any of my previous epics.

__

So, here is the cross check & validation of our numbers for the Pats balls:

We can do a little algebra on the Pressure / Temperature equation (2nd one from the top), and come up with:

P2 = P1+ (PLR * ∆T) = P1 + (PLR * (T2 - T1)).

P2 = P1 + (PLR * T2) - (PLR * T1)

T1 = ((P1 - P2) + (PLR * T2)) / PLR

T1 = T2 + (P1 - P2) / PLR

T1 = T2 + (∆P / PLR)

This last equation does exactly what we want. It allows us to calculation the starting temperature of the air inside the ball, knowing the pressure difference (which we get from the official’s records), the final Temperature (T2 = 49°F) and the Pressure Lapse Rate (which we know from experiment, and which does NOT change).

Let’s check the starting temperature of the air inside the Pats’ balls:
(* Note: in doing these calculations, since we are measuring differences instead of absolute values, we can use psig & °F, unlike before, where we had to use psia & °R. I encourage you to repeat these calculations using psia & °R. You’ll see that you get the same answers.)

T1 = 49°F + [(12.5 - 11.0) psig / 0.060 psi/°F] = 49°F + (1.5 / 0.06)°F = 49°F + 25°F = 74°F. Exactly as expected, the air inside the Pats’ balls had equilibrated to room temperature.
__

Now let’s check the temperature of the air inside the Colts’ balls, when they were measured before the game:

Using The Numbers In The Wells Report:

T1 = T2 + (P1 - P2) / PLR

T1 = 49°F + (13.0 - 12.3 psig) / (0.06 psi/°F) = 49°F + 11.7°F = 60.7°F

This is INCONTROVERTIBLE.!
This is correct.

The Pressure Lapse Rate is NOT a variable.
__

This is prima facie proof that the air inside the Colts’ balls, whose temperature nobody ever measured, was colder than room temperature. In fact, it was clearly in the low 60’s.

And I believe that I know exactly what caused it.
__

But, we can take one step further:

The Wells Report also gives us values from which we can calculate a Pressure Lapse Rate:

According to the Wells Report, they have established - by legal edict - the Colts' balls to be the “gold standard”, the “control”.

Assuming that the air inside the colts balls had time to equilibrate to room temp, as the Report asserts, then the Colts balls Pressure / Temperature performance shows a Pressure Lapse Rate of:

[Corrected Locker Room Temperature:
The Exponent Labs portion of the Wells Report uses the following:
Pre-game locker room temp: 67 - 71°F.
Game temp: 48 - 50°F
Half time inspection: 71 - 74°F.

I have no idea why they use different temps for "before game" and "at half time", but we'll use their numbers.

I found out, just today, that the correct number, per the Pats organization, is 71 - 74°F.]

So let's re-do the calculation, using the Wells Report numbers.

PLR = ∆P / ∆T = (13.0 psi - 12.3 psi) / (69°F - 49°F) = 0.035 psi / °F.


While better, THIS PLR IS WRONG.!!!

[Note: Using the numbers that the Exponent Labs should have used, T1 = (71 + 74)/2 = 72.5°F, we get PLR = 0.030 psi/°F. Still wrong.]

Added for clarity: Remember, the correct number for wet footballs is PLR = 0.060 psi/°F.

There is no way that any footballs (or soccer ball, volley ball, basketball, etc) ever used in any game ever played, at any level of competition, ever exhibited the Pressure Lapse Rate claimed (indirectly) in the Wells Report.

There is no way in the engineering or scientific world to justify the Wells Report's Pressure Lapse Rate to anybody, for any reason.

This is junk science.
__

(...)

All of the above is correct.

You can show it to anybody that you want.
You can call a press conference & announce it, as far as I am concerned.

And I will stand up in front of Mr. Well, Dr. Marlow & Exponent Labs, and try not to laugh as they try to defend this wrong number.
__

The only thing left to this tale is to figure out why the temp in the Colts balls was so low.

I believe that I know why. But we’ve got to run an experiment to prove it.

(...)
__

FINAL IMPORTANT NOTE:

The fact that the wells report is wrong does not depend on us being able to figure out why the temp of the air inside the Colts’ balls was so low.

The Pressure Lapse Rate that is inherent in the Wells Report’s numbers (but that they don’t mention) is alone sufficient to throw that report into the trash.

There is no scientifically valid defense for using that number.

And you’ll further note that, the instructions of Wells’ legal office to “use the Colts’ balls as a control” is, in essence, simply a verbose way of telling them to “use that scientifically unjustifiable PLR”.!

The Wells Report will never hold up to scrutiny.

[Edited, 5/8/15 8:35 pm PST, in deference to literary & personal sensitivities.]

 

[tom.kordis]

By the way, I invite critiques of the above from technically accomplished individuals.

I'd request that any poster here bring Engineers, Physicists, etc., who they know/believe are interested in this issue, to this thread to discuss this issue.

It is much more important that we get this correct, than we get it quick.

If I've blown an equation here, or missed a value, I'll be really disappointed, but not shocked.
(OK, I'm lying. I'll be shocked & embarrassed. This is trivial, remedial stuff.)

But anyone is capable of making a mistake.
Right Dr. deGrasse Tyson?
And Right, me.

So, this is exactly why one publishes all of their assumptions, their numbers & their calculations. There are enough people who are math & science literate that, if I've made an error, then they'll point it out. And we'll fix the error & move on.

So, everyone, let's hold a Gathering of the Geeks. Invite your friends.

I am, right now, absolutely convinced that the Wells Report is Junk Engineering, and belongs in the trash.

Let's see how the Geeks rule.

Let's see if I end up in humiliating embarrassment.
Or if Mr. Wells, Mr. Karp, Mr. Reisner, Exponent Labs, Dr. Marlow & Mr. Goodell do.

I am confident.
I've got a Ringer in my corner.
And she's a cast iron *****.

 

[Fill-Up-Rivers]

Okay...So then why were the Patriots employees discussing letting air out of the balls ? and why did Brady not want his text message history looked at ?

I get what you're saying about the physics behind Mother Nature playing its part, But did Mother Nature have the Patriots equipment guy dissapear with the game balls and take them into a room?

I didn't know Mother Nature could do all of this

Here's another dig with Brady's own shovel .....LoL

 

[tom.kordis]

Okay...So then why were the Patriots employees discussing letting air out of the balls ? and why did Brady not want his text message history looked at ?

Sorry to have to say this, Fill, but you're seeming to be awfully slow on the uptake.

I don't give a flying fart what ANYBODY said to ANYBODY else. I don't care about the dark places that your conspiratorial little mind runs to because of the oh-so-damning fact (in your & Wells' fertile imaginations) that someone who goes into a ONE-TOILET bathroom ... locks the door.?!

I don't care about the Pats/Indy game. I don't care if that game never happened.

All of this crap above doesn't change one iota any of the calculation & the results that I laid out above.

Which PROVES that the Wells Report used junk engineering, and provably false assumptions. And that their verdict of "Guilty" is explicitly derived from, & dependent upon, those false assumptions.

If you want to talk about the calculations & methodologies that I brought up in the first two posts, you're welcome to discuss them here. If you are going to go off on tangents, like faxes & text messages, please take them somewhere else.

I get what you're saying about the physics behind Mother Nature playing its part, But did Mother Nature have the Patriots equipment guy dissapear with the game balls and take them into a room?

And to be honest with you, Fill, you do NOT get what I'm saying about the physics & Mother Nature. Otherwise, you wouldn't be asking these dumb, irrelevant questions.

Allow me to demonstrate:

This is a much better question:
How did an equipment guy going into a bathroom, or anything that Tom Brady or the equipment managers wrote to each other, change the laws of the physics of gasses?

Read the following slowly & try to get it thru you noggin: The pressure that was recorded in the Pats' balls at half time was exactly the correct pressure that the laws of physics dictates they should have had.

Read it several times. Often enough so that you can recite it from memory.

Now, if the ball boy let air out of the balls while he was in the bathroom, then the pressure in the Pats balls would have been LOWER THAN what was was recorded.

Further, if you "got what I wrote", you'd realize that the CORRECT question to ask is not "why was the pressure in the Pats' balls so low?" but rather "Why was the pressure in the Colts' balls so high?"

The answer, the demonstrable answer, to that question is that the temperature of the air inside the Colts' balls was way low (around 62°F) when their pressure was checked before the game.

Every single observation made about any of these balls is explained by that one fact.
And that fact is proven by the numbers in the Wells Report.

Now, "WHY was the temperature in the Colts' balls 62°F & in the Pats' balls 74°F?"

THAT would have been a good questions.

"Text messages, bathroom breaks, etc."
Not so much.

 

[Fill-Up-Rivers]

Bottom line is that Brady lied and he has made this a lot bigger than what it is right now !

Why lie if there wasn't anything to hide ? Are you saying Brady didn't lie ? The proof he lied is there

You can keep dropping your credentials and keep over typing to defend Brady all you want...That's not going to help him and the outcome of the verdict.

Also did you watch that interview ? Wow LoLoLOL...Any person who can read body language can tell you that he was really uncomfortable...He tried to put in a smile but you could tell he wanted to pull a Latrell Spreewell and choke Jim

 

[Ken Canin]

By the way, I invite critiques of the above from technically accomplished individuals.

Haven't looked at it closely, but the idiosyncratic grammar, punctuation and capitalization are unhelpful.

In English, only capitalize the first letter of proper nouns and the the first word following a period. Never write words in the body of the text in UPPERCASE unless it's for a ransom note. Most people don't take seriously text containing a bunch of words in all caps for no apparent reason.

 

[tom.kordis]

@Ken Canin,
Ken, you have your style. I have mine.

I will read your messages and do my best to interpret.

"... with a bunch of words in all caps for no apparent reason ..."

Wrong.

When speaking, I can emphasize the key concept verbally.
When writing, that's not possible. Hence capitalization or bolding.
In every case, the bold or capitalized words are key concepts.

Style vs. substance.
Part of that substance is trying to help people understand what I'm writing.
Emphasis helps.

If you find that my stylistic distractions outweigh the substantial content, don't read my posts.

 

[tom.kordis]

Bottom line is that Brady lied and ...

Bottom line, Fill, is that it's useless talking to a mule.
Good bye.

 

[Pats2000]

I'm not good at math. i can't verify those equations... but I am here laughing at Fill's inability to even grasp the concept of what you're trying to get across. That like just like when you have a time and distance traveled you can calculate velocity, you can see how much temperature al the football should lose over a period of time. Fill, physics doesn't lie. It governs the interactions in our universe. Which is why your sound like a moron right now.

 

[Fill-Up-Rivers]

So if Brady gets suspended what will you guys say and think ? The Patriots front office is already preparing for the worst and is expecting a hefty suspension.

And to everyone asking me what my reaction/reply to all your comment's is.......Well, It's only been 30 hours so I haven't had much time to digest them fully, But when I do...I will be sure to let you guys know

 

[ChoWZa]

I appreciate the OP and I follow but I'm not in a position to confirm it. The Patriots balls dropped by the expected amount, the Colts' balls used as control must have been filled at a lower temperature when measured before the game is the only scientific explanation as to why they did not drop so much. Does the Wells report actually refer to the Colts balls as control? I don't even think you need to go as far as you did to scientifically dismiss the report. We're missing too many variables (temperature of the air in the balls as measured pre-game). The only ones that were close (or exactly) as expected were the Patriots' balls. Even if the Colts' balls were considered the control, there were only 4 which would lead to errors simply based on sample size.

If the air in the Patriots' balls were hotter than normal when given to the referees you would expect the drop to be more significant. As far as I know there is no rule against handing in the balls at specific air temperatures, is there? Given that the Colts' were involved in a sting operation I would expect them to hand in balls with lower temperature to make the Patriots' air pressure drop to seem more significant. Surely in the months the Colts had to plan this they could have consulted one halfwit physicist to help them come up with that scheme.

Furthermore without documenting the air temperature and pressure when handed to the referees, there is no way to validate or invalidate half time measurements. For that reason alone the whole scientific basis for the accusation must be discarded, without even getting to the point that the Pats balls dropped by exactly as much as the formula predicts.

 

[12ScotlandPats12]

Does nobody get it yet?
Although i have read and (pretty much) understood the gas laws it makes not one shred of difference. Even if the Pats took Tom.Kordis with them to the N.F.L. tomorrow and they accepted his findings and even dropped the whole deflategate affair they would wait until something else came along. we already have had spygate. To me after looking deeply into both affairs the Pats are the ones who will always get the ****ty end of the stick. Why?
They are good, they are successful and they are if not the best then one of the most successful franchises ever. The end result? Hatred.
Just take soccer in England. Manchester United won everything for years and were generally hated by everyone apart from their own fans. The difference is there is not a billion rules you can break in soccer and so they were never accused of anything. In football however the rule book is nearly endless. Thus most teams in the N.F.L. are balanced on a knife edge with a lot of them. Do other teams get into trouble for videoing offensive coaches signals? No. Do other teams get into trouble for under inflated balls (gas laws aside for the moment!)? No. Why? The N.F.L. is worried about the superbowl becoming a one team thing. They are worried that the Patriots organization becomes bigger than them. So the team in question has to be discredited. They are not bothered about Bill Belechicks reputation or TomBrady being the best Q.B. ever.
Whilst the Patriots continue to be successful the N.F.L. will continue to pick faults with everything they do.
The Patriots can do one thing in response :- Keep being the best. Keep winning. and show Goodall that no matter what he throws at them they will not be cowed.
Here's to the superbowl 2015 winners and another M.V.P. to Tom Brady
Keep The Faith

 

[pdangle]

Bottom line is that Brady lied and he has made this a lot bigger than what it is right now !

Also did you watch that interview ? Wow LoLoLOL...Any person who can read body language can tell you that he was really uncomfortable...He tried to put in a smile but you could tell he wanted to pull a Latrell Spreewell and choke Jim

If he is so definitely guilty, don't you think he wouldn't voluntarily do an interview that usually only makes a person come out looking worse. No, this is the action of an angry innocent man trying to clear his name despite knowing that doing so probably isn't the wisest move in the end. But that's what an innocent man does.

 

[eom]

I took a little science, and I understand the relationship between temp and pressure, but I won't be able to decipher this with a translator?

could you dumb it down a little?