Idle thoughts - the "tip your hat and call me daddy" edition

[patfanken]

Sorry about the delay in getting this out. I took my weekly sojourn to Foxwoods on Saturday and got myself down so badly that it took me until 9:30am on Sunday to even glimpse getting even. So by the time the game was over I took a nap and the next thing I knew it was almost noon on Monday.

It wasn't pretty. In fact it was down right UGLY for a great part of this game. There is lots of blame to throw around and I will get to that in the breakdown, but I want to point out that this loss is just ONE game early in the season to a VERY good team, on the road. They laid an enormous egg. However they did show a lot of fight, especially in the second half when they came very close to clawing their way back into a game they had no business hanging around it.

Over the course of a long season their WILL be bad games. Occasionally you manage to win one or two of them. However when you are on the road and against a good team, the margin of victory becomes incredibly narrow. While they did make a few plays, they also made too many mistakes that cost them any chance to get back into this game.

ADVERSITY is a great character builder and a necessary one as a team creates its identity. So on a positive note, I felt the team passed its first test in the way it kept on fighting through the adversity. They played hard throughout the 2nd half. So while the knee-jerk hot takes of this game will feature the "this is the beginning of the end" dynamic; I would opine instead that this is just one game of 16 regular season battles, and this team shouldn't be judged on what happened on Sunday, but rather on how they RESPOND to that ass kicking, and the next couple of weeks will go a long way to telling that story.

So let the Felgers', Tomases' and Borges' have their fun this week. Over the last 20 years they haven't had many moments to raise their strident voices.... and I doubt they will have many more opportunities this season. But regardless, it is time to take a deep breath and get this breakdown over with. GOD we are spoiled, lets deal with the crap that every other team has to go through as quickly as we can and be done with and get on to the Lions .

1. QB - Another game where Brady throws for almost a 70% completion rate (68.5%), and a 111 QB rating and the narrative of the game will be, "what's wrong with Brady". Well there is NOTHING wrong with Brady. Given the pressure he was under and other factors that we will discuss later, Brady was FINE. He certainly wasn't great. He missed some guys, and frankly for a rare moment, he wasn't the best QB on the field this Sunday. The REAL story at QB, in fact, wasn't Brady at all, it was Blake Bortles. He was magnificent, especially in that first half, where he was almost perfect. Every decision was correct, and every throw was right on the money. If this is what the Jags are going to get from this kid, then the Jags are going to be a tough out for EVERY one they play.

2. OL - Well for all the praise they got last week, it was not good this week. For all the crap they are likely to get for their pass blocking, the more hidden issue was the run blocking, imo. For the 2nd week in a row there was VERY little running room for whomever the Pats gave the ball to. Granted a lot of that has to do with how well the Jags front 7 played, but it was a rare play where any RB got 2 yds down field before they got hit. NOT GOOD. I'll wait until the film comes out, but in particular, it seemed to me that I saw David Andrews wind up BEHIND the LOS of more runs than I'd like. Is HE a problem in the run game?

I'll wait to see the stats geeks, give the hits, and pressures stats out, but they aren't going to be good. Let us hope that when we look back on this game, we will find that it was the low point and it all started to get better from here, Isn't that what the Pats are all about.....getting better?

3. RB's - When your best RB averaged 3.7ypc, it wasn't a good day for the RB's. But that being said, I Liked what I saw from Sony Michel. He ran hard and decisively in his first real action of the season. That was about all you could ask from a guy who missed the majority of the pre-season. But as we mentioned above, there wasn't much open space for them to run to yesterday.

BTW- We now have 2 guys (Burkhead and Michell) who we know will run hard and get some yards after the catch, there should be no need to ever give the ball to James White again on a running play, except for the occasional draw play. I know he only carried it 4 times, but that was about 3 times too many.

4. Receivers - Dorsett continued to prove to be steady and reliable. I would like him to be used more on deeper routes. I remember him beating coverage deep on at least one route that Brady overthrew a tad on. But again, Brady was rarely given the time to comfortably throw the deep ball on Sunday. Hogan made a few plays as well after being a virtual no show for the opener.

But the guy I want to talk about is Patterson. I really want to see this kid featured more. I love it when he gets his hands on the ball. He runs hard and with the quickness and abandon you wouldn't expect from a tall WR type. Granted his catch and fall down was an ugly play, it happens. He's another guy I would like to see utilized down field more, especially in the middle.

And as for Gronk, he got covered well by various combinations of Jags, and THIS time those doubles were executed very well. It was as simple as that. My only complaint was that he didn't get thrown to enough. He was getting grabbed (as usual) a lot, and I wonder if we could have gotten some flags

Telvin Smith was a binky of mine when he came out. To my mind he is the prototype of the SS/LB type that is necessary for defenses to have in this uber-passing game. Shazeir comes to mind as another guy like that and the one armed kid Seattle picked was my binky this year for that role. So yes it was very frustrating to watch Pats LB's being left in the dust by various combinations of RB's and WR's, but I really don't blame the players. They are what they are. What we do need is to find and develop a player to fill that role. Clearly it is difficult to find that kind of guy and I know that they are looking for him. The guy with 3 names the Eagles stole from us was another attempt to fill it. I really like what I saw from him that preseason. Too bad that stash job didn't work.

5. Defensive overview - Well that SUCKED. It certainly didn't help that Bortles had a career game, but I was concerned that it never got better as the game went along. One of the hallmarks of this long run was that over the course of the game, the defense would get better from quarter to quarter. I didn't get the sense that this was the case for this one. Did you?

A lot was made from the media and by fans about the different look the Pats D showed from Patricia to Flores. It looked more "aggressive", and of course everyone was happy with the "more aggressive" look they saw in the first game. Well let this be a lesson on WHY we haven't been all that aggressive over the years. We showed more 5 and 6 man rushes than I've seen in a long time, and for the most part, the defense PAID dearly for that aggression. I'm not sure whether it was a bad design, or the early loss of Flowers, or simply the matter of great decision making and execution by Bortles and the Jags; but way too often those 5 and 6 man rushes were turned into first downs.

6. Front Seven - You know my perception of the pass rush was that the DL was getting some decent initial push off the LOS, but it never QUITE got into Bortles' face often enough to disrupt his rhythm. No one seemed to stand out as a success or a problem in the rush, though it was clear that the Jags were attacking Davis on the run to great success. It is so hard to isolate what went wrong form the couch in front of the TV, and so easy to wait a few days when you can have the film guys break it down for us. So I won't try to guess what went wrong, but it WILL be important to get to this week's film review to get some of those answers so we can see how (hopefully) we fix it going forward.

b. Still waiting to see when Hightower will be removed from the milk carton.

7. Secondary - I didn't think the secondary played all that badly DESPITE all the yardage that got put on it. In this case, I thought it was more the Jags execution than bad play by the Pats. There were a LOT of completed passes that were the result of great throws and good designs than bad coverage. A lot of completed passes into tough coverage. It seemed that only later in the game when the Pats were taking even more chances did there seem to be guys running wide open.

b. This secondary has been so dependable over the last few years, that it will interesting to see how they try and replace Patrick Chung, one of the most underrated players in the league.

8. General observations. 77% was the stat that stood out to me as the one that typified this game. That 77% was the 3rd down conversion rate (10/14) That is TEN times the Pats had a chance to get their offense on the field and FAILED to do so. So if there is anything we want to figure out WHY, it is this. Christ, 5o% is a bad number and 33% (which is what the Jags got) is just barely OK. This is what tells the story of this game.

b. On a positive note, the Pats only committed 2 penalties, so you can say the overall team discipline improve substantially.

c. Think about this, in a game where the Pats were completely outplayed and outclassed after the first half, by the beginning of the 4th quarter they were a strip sack away from at worst, making that a one score game and a nail biting 4th quarter.

d. There were 3 disturbing plays that stood out for me in this game. One was the long TD run that finally put the game out of reach. It killed me to see so many missed tackles. Second was the offside on the punt that wasn't taken advantage of that ended ANY chance the Pats had to get back in the game. That was a mental lapse that Romo pointed out so well. Finally, it pissed me off that we were even punting in that situation at all. WHY weren't we going for it on 4th and an inch. What was the point of punting at all. Who cared if we didn't get it at that point. What were your "disturbing plays".

Summary:

Bad game against a good opponent. The bottom line all the breast beating we are about to hear this week will be soon forgotten, just like the noise after the KC game last season. So while all the issues we saw are real and need to be dealt with by this staff, we have to remember that this is the NFL and its how you finish and NOT how you start a season.

 

[oldrover]

Excellent post, sir! Yes, there are problems that need to be addressed, but I too thought there was a lot of fight to this team... they kept battling despite the injuries and a few bounces not going their way.

And a special tip of the cap to you, sir, for posting so soon... I can only imagine the prep work you needed for this... mine would have looked like this...

 

[VectorPrime]

Hightower scares me because he looks either hurt or, god forbid, washed up.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Get YAC, stop YAC. We did neither, and that must change.

 

[luuked]

1. QB - Another game where Brady throws for almost a 70% completion rate (68.5%), and a 111 QB rating and the narrative of the game will be, "what's wrong with Brady". Well there is NOTHING wrong with Brady. Given the pressure he was under and other factors that we will discuss later, Brady was FINE. He certainly wasn't great. He missed some guys, and frankly for a rare moment, he wasn't the best QB on the field this Sunday. The REAL story at QB, in fact, wasn't Brady at all, it was Blake Bortles. He was magnificent, especially in that first half, where he was almost perfect. Every decision was correct, and every throw was right on the money. If this is what the Jags are going to get from this kid, then the Jags are going to be a tough out for EVERY one they play.

You put it better than I ever could Ken. But that's pretty much it.

The Jags media is calling it Bortles best career game:

 

[Pats2000]

Yeah on the the running backs. It seemed like except for one run by Michel and one run by White. If the running backs made it past the DL they were hit immediately by the Jags LB or Safety. Amazing play by their Defense. Another thought, they handled Gronk extremely well. It seemed like they played him single man and gave zone coverage assist and their communicatino on passing Gronk off was on point. So up to 3 different guys could be tasked with Gronk at any given play.

Although there was one play where Gronk was definitely held and should have been a flag that was caught on replay. I'm sure that was happening all game, but they let it go like they normally do.

It seems like Patterson is actually useless in the passing game, he's a gimmick guy. I don't think his route skills ever really converted into anything and he couldn't even catch a pass in the flat without falling over. If he stayed on his feet that was a first down.

We need Edelman back and some better posession guys. I think this receiving group will get better over the course of the season, but we really only have Hogan and Dorsett as receivers. I don't know what to call Patterson, they weren't even using him for punt return duty until Chung went out. He seems like kid of a wasted roster spot, unless they think he can progress throughout the year. Maybe it's time to see if we can bring Josh Gordon in. I would rather have him out there running consistent go routes than Patterson doing I don't know what.

Our Defense was ill prepared and it looked like they often lost track of the Running backs and Rowe got abused this game. That seems to be the trend. Tough catch to defend on the TD over Gilmore's head, I don't blame him for that. Defense also took some terrible angles this game and had YAC issues, which seem to be a carry over from the Superbowl.

Defensively I don't see how this unit is going to defend against great East to West offenses like this. They historically have had issues and they don't seem to have an answer for the quick crossers and Wheel routes that have killed us over the last few years. Schematically it seems like some teams have our D figured out.

Anyway, it's one game, but it's a game that's very indicative of the challenges we've faced with similar to the Eagles and other fast offenses. They outplayed us, fair and square and we didn't have the offensive ponies to get back in the game even when our D did create opportunities.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Thanks for the great write up as usual, Ken. Disturbing coaching decisions:

1. Not going for it on 4th down, as you already referenced. I have no idea why you give the team virtually a zero percent chance of victory when you have the most successful short yardage QB in league history. They waived the white flag.

2. The offensive decisions leading up to that play were atrocious. I get that Jacksonville is especially good in obvious passing situations, but the Patriots were forced to throw for some chunk yardage to stay in the game and instead went with dump offs way short of first downs, praying James White would get unrealistic yards after catch. Most disturbingly, they seemed to be designed plays rather than reads at the line.

3. Not sure if this is on Brady or McDaniels, but when the offense is struggling at halftime, it becomes Gronkowski or bust. Either you start throwing him some contested balls to open up the offense (which usually works) or die by too much reliance on guys who can’t consistently win matchups. Didn’t even seem like any designed plays to get him open.

4. It was hot, but it was also clear the pace was too slow all game. The offense would have been much better in a no huddle. Even if the 4th quarter down multiple TDs they were running the play clock down within five seconds. I thought they are the best conditioned team in the league, and that’s how you neutralize a pass rush. Jacksonville appeared to have punched themselves out but Patriots played my into the low tempo and didn’t take advantage.

5. You’re down big and get a kickoff from midfield, and the percentages don’t tell you try for an onside kick? You deserve a horrible result like a whole 25 yards of field position (when an onside kick would have gotten you 10 anyway.). Not sure if that was even the worst decision of the game in not trying an onside kick. The last kickoff was right in line with the decision to punt: waving the white flag.

6. Belichick, McDaniels, and Brady are always totally out of sync and play/coach scared in Miami and this reminded me of thise games. I think it’s more to do with the coaching. They seem to have some woeful game plans. Watching Michel get the ball on five straight plays without success brought back nightmarish flashbacks of Steven Jackson and losing HFA due to some inexplicably bad and predictable paycalling. I give Jacksonville credit, but I’ve seen them to the exact same thing against bad Dolphins defenses. Something about playing in the humidity makes them a lot worse.

 

[luuked]

Not going for it on 4th down, as you already referenced. I have no idea why you give the team virtually a zero percent chance of victory when you have the most successful short yardage QB in league history. They waived the white flag.

But I guess you can always try to get in an argument with Ernie about probabilities.

 

[Clonamery]

But I guess you can always try to get in an argument with Ernie about probabilities.

Who knew BB would hit the cliff before TB?

 

[luuked]

It was hot, but it was also clear the pace was too slow all game. The offense would have been much better in a no huddle.

Can't go no huddle if you are forced to play Patterson extensively like we were. He would limit the amount of callable plays considerably.

 

[luuked]

Watching Michel get the ball on five straight plays without success brought back nightmarish flashbacks of Steven Jackson and losing HFA due to some inexplicably bad and predictable paycalling.

Except that didn't happen the same way that those mythical 3 runs in a row also didn't happen.

 

[zydecochris]

Thanks for the great write up as usual, Ken. Disturbing coaching decisions:
6. Belichick, McDaniels, and Brady are always totally out of sync and play/coach scared in Miami and this reminded me of thise games. I think it’s more to do with the coaching. They seem to have some woeful game plans. Watching Michel get the ball on five straight plays without success brought back nightmarish flashbacks of Steven Jackson and losing HFA due to some inexplicably bad and predictable paycalling. I give Jacksonville credit, but I’ve seen them to the exact same thing against bad Dolphins defenses. Something about playing in the humidity makes them a lot worse.

Good point, I think some of the worst games I've seen the Patriots play were early in the year in the heat and humidity of Miami, for some reason or another the Patriots just don't handle that well. I don't think it is conditioning, they are a supurbly conditioned team. BB is well known for preparing his team for numerous playing conditions (e.g., wetting the ball to simulate slippery footballs, etc.), maybe it just isn't possible to simulate the heat and humidity of Mid September Florida.

 

[Hyped]

Comments:

a.) Oh, how I have missed "Idle Thoughts" over the years.....good write up PFK...especially after an all nightery chasing your money at Foxwoods....been there before .

b.) I think Gostkowski's missed 55 yarder really changed the game a lot. Had he made that...we would have been down 2 scores most of the game and still in it after the strip sack.

c.) Happy to see Michel out there...he looks like a difference maker.

d.) Yes, on using Patterson more.

e.) Defensively, we really need to do something about those rub routes...I think it's time to go back playing some zone D.

f.) We really need Hightower to be....Hightower....

g.) And to be honest...I am starting to question how much we are paying Devin Mc. I love Devin, but for what we are paying him...he needs to be a difference maker.

h.) I don't mind handing it off to White. He did not have that many carries and wasn't enough space to run anyway, but we need to keep defenses honest.

i.) The loss yesterday reminded me a lot of the 2010 loss in the divisional round to the Jets. The D was taking away the mid/deep part of the field and daring us to go underneath and to march down the field. In those situations, it would be more helpful to be playing with a lead....and to play some defense too!

j.) Our first half drives: Missed FG, Punt, Punt, and FG. Jacksonville's drives: TD, TD, punt, and TD before the half. Make one more FG....and limit the Jags to a FG before half time and the score would be 17-6 going into half time...a big difference.

 

[everlong]

1. The game plan on both sides of the ball was pretty much the same as the AFCCG where you were lucky to win. On offense I get it to a point. You've traded Cooks, you don't have DA or Edelman and you're down Cannon. On defense playing it safe didn't work the first time and it worked worse this time. You have to put pressure on Bortles.

2. They only lost by 11 in a game where it seemed like a lot more. On the positive side give the Patriots Edelman, Cannon and Gordon (if he can keep his head on straight) and this would be a different matchup.

3. The defense wasn't good but it did turn the Jags over twice and the offense squandered those chances.

4. The three play calls on the series where they kicked the FG from inside the 10 were so frustrating, conservative and unimaginative after such a great drive. So frustrating.

5. I think I could have missed that long FG as bad as Ghost and then kicking it in the EZ from the 50...awful.

6. I agree with IIB on going for the onside kick from the 50 in that spot. That's a no brainer. I also agree with him on the no huddle or at least a faster pace.

7. The short yardage play where they motioned Gronk to the left side of the formation, did anybody in America nevermind the Jaguars defense not know where that was going? That was the spot for play action. The Jags totally would have bit on that. Just look at the second Hogan TD where they faked a bubble screen to the same side. Why not more misdirections like that?

8. The Jags with all of their yapping are a team that could contend with the Sqeelers and the Ratbirds quickly in the most hated category because their players think they deserve every call and chirp all day.

9. Edelman is a guy who would have gotten in their heads.

10. Please Josh Gordon take the drugs the doctor prescribes not the kind you buy on the corner.

 

[borg]

My 2 cents...

In 2017, with a roster full of younger players Belichick must have had a lot of confidence in given the team's recent successes, BB essentially took a pass on that year's best draftable talent and instead bought himself a WR from the Saints and selected only 4 players from that draft, beginning in the 3rd round.
From the 2014, 2015, 2016, & 2017 drafts, NE has ONE player left on their roster who was taken in either the 1st or 2nd round...Malcom Brown
In 2018....I see a roster half full of JAGs, other teams castoffs, and players typically spotted on cellar dweller teams. In current form, NE's WR roster could be the least impressive grouping in the NFL forcing Brady to choose RBs as his most reliable receiving tool.
And today, BB is spending more draft capital on scraps from the worst team in professional sports.
To say that NE's personnel "experts" have failed epically to field a competent WR corp is a massive understatement.
23 and counting...
2 that belong in the NFL
1 that deserves a starting spot....as a #3
And a new guy with 2 strikes and zero discipline
Edelman is part of the solution but his presence will not absolve the total failure by the suits

I guessed a 10-6 record before the season started and I see no reason to adjust up.
The roster is unimpressive
The depth issues in certain groupings are glaring
I've watched a ton of football the past two weeks and I can't help but compare NE's athletes to the rest of the league. Pass rushers, WRs, RBs, LBs, DBs, OL.......and NE's talent underwhelms in comparison. BB and Brady are the great equalizers....but....it is not enough.

Now.....a glass half full moment.
Living in Florida and understanding the effects of the broiling summers here, I was impressed NE didn't wilt completely during the oppressive heat yesterday. Such heat not only effects the body but the mind as well. And NE stayed strong physically and mentally for 4 quarters. I give them credit and their fortitude gives me some hope.

The total inflexibility of the NFL....requiring players and fans to endure oven temperatures during the late southern summers is mind numbing. I've sat in Pro Player (or whatever they call it each new year) when it was 110+ degrees on the field and just as bad in the stands. Why the NFL won't allow these teams night games Saturday, Sundays and Mondays through the end of October is ....par for the course.

Note......my opinion of NE's roster has been consistent since training camp and not based on one loss.

Note 2...I agreed with Ramsey's sentiments on how to cover Gronkowski. DBs have the speed and agility that DEs and LBs don't typically possess to cover the big guy. The real issue for teams is if they have an extra DB to deploy on a TE. Given NE's league worst WR corp and zero fear of deep shots, Jacksonville had sufficient man power and executed the perfect Gronk defense. Edelman's arrival will give teams more to think about. More hope

Note 3: NE needs to stay healthier than in any other year.....another great equalizer....but an awful lot to ask

 

[Lavictoire]

I look at this game as our early smash in the face game to bring them to reality about how much they need to do. Also, this is still preseason.

 

[fxmallon]

Given that this was 41 year old Brady's most oppressive heat index game by far (and at times he looked wasted sitting on the bench), I was expecting a grinding 19-17 type game. So I was truly pissed at that first very wide 55 yard field goal miss, which immediately set up a quick Jag TD, and set the tone for a much more wide open game dominated by the Jags.

The second terrible turning point was of course the strip fumble which was the the second such game-killing play in the last 3 Pat games. I was thinking "never again Tom" and sure enough two games later it happens. It's so painful to see when it's your own quarterback, esp one in the middle of one more incredible comeback.

The other big negative was that old familiar Pat song--no pressure on the QB. I kept thinking we needed some speed freak on the outside to make a damn bee-line right at Bortles, but that never happened. Why, given our prowess, does this team give the opposing QB more time to pass than its own QB gets? It can be depressing. Was the first week a fluke?

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

c. Think about this, in a game where the Pats were completely outplayed and outclassed after the first half, by the beginning of the 4th quarter they were a strip sack away from at worst, making that a one score game and a nail biting 4th quarter.

1. Van Noy is CLEARLY turning his back and walking away when Austin Seferian-Jankins committed a total f*cking cheap shot, pushing Van Noy and causing him to fall backwards onto the ground. Van Noy is lucky not to have been injured, the officials should have called a penalty and the NFL SHOULD at least fine Seferian-Jenkins.

2. Furthermore, Calais Campbell committed exactly the kind of blatant, playground cheap shot late hit on Tom Brady, which should have been called, and could have easily injured Brady, and likewise SHOULD result in a fine from the league, but won't because the NFL is too stupid.

Second was the offside on the punt that wasn't taken advantage of that ended ANY chance the Pats had to get back in the game. That was a mental lapse that Romo pointed out so well. Finally, it pissed me off that we were even punting in that situation at all. WHY weren't we going for it on 4th and an inch. What was the point of punting at all. Who cared if we didn't get it at that point.

OMG, Bill's gonna be pissed this week about that off sides. That was brutal. I agree, we shoulda gone for it. But Bill's got a ton of material, and I do not see any reason we can't do what we always do: learn from our mistakes, work hard, and improve. We're on to Detroit.

 

[DarrylS]

Great take as usual PFK...

My assessment is that the Pats were not as well prepared for the Jags, and did not make any noticeable adjustments..

The O play calling lacked imagination, and handing the ball off on 1st down with no tangible results was predictable for the fan and for the Jags..

Bortles had an excellent game, Brady did also... but the expectations of Brady is that he will deliver some superhuman, comeback effort every week and that is not expected of usually pedestrian Bortles..

Tony Romo gets on my nerves, less is more...

The Jags are a very good team, but we have seen very good teams early on.. lets see what they look like in week 17...

The coverage of Gronk was excellent, but when the Pats only features only one great receiving threat that task becomes easier.. if Gordon works out Gronk may be the best beneficiary of that move..

This week will give myself respite from the nattering nabobs of negativity on the Radio.. sure they will beat the whole "Patriots Way" is being cast aside, but the media often forgets they authored the "Patriots Way" and have never heard to Mr. Kraft or BB refer to that description...

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The second terrible turning point was of course the strip fumble which was the the second such game-killing play in the last 3 Pat games. I was thinking "never again Tom" and sure enough two games later it happens. It's so painful to see when it's your own quarterback, esp one in the middle of one more incredible comeback.

Is there any quarterback in the NFL who can avoid getting strip sacked from time to time? The QB is just getting into his windup and about to release the ball when a 320 pound defensive lineman with arms like trees swats as hard as he can at your wrist, and it may be physically impossible to prevent the job from jarring loose. I don't see Brady's ball protection as the problem on either of those plays. His pocket awareness is much, much better than most, if not all, other quarterbacks in the league, and he is great at sensing danger and getting rid of the ball quickly or tucking it in taking a sack. Sometimes it is just inevitable, though. I think that "never again" is not realistic or fair for any quarterback when it comes to forced fumbles.

I agree with the rest of your post.