I am not trying to look past an opponent but I wanted to get an honest view of the kind of offense the Patriots would be up against. Clearly this will be a pretty tough defense for the Patriots to face even if you think their numbers are inflated. So if the offense has trouble the question is how likely is the defense to keep them down to a low enough number to win. I thought it was pretty likely before looking at the Jaguars all that close. Now that I have looked closely I realized I was wrong. This offense is very likely not to be just contained below a certain threshold but COMPLETELY shut down if not given help by bad defense, too many untimely penalties or defensive points/turnovers in short fields. That sounds like a very disrespectful thing to say about an offense that ranked 5th in PPG at 26.1 and 6th in YPG at 365 YPA and just put up 45 points on the Steelers. Oddly enough though it's actually true. Here are the numbers. I went game by game and looked at all their scoring drives. Every point they scored. I took out defensive/ST scores, scores caused by short fields and scores caused by huge offensive plays (mostly runs but some passes too) of 40 yards or more. I didn't worry about the beneficial penalties they got. All offenses get those and I am not going to be concerned with how stupid their opponents were.. I am aware all offenses benefit from defensive scores and short fields to a degree but I can't compare every single offense and it is clear the Jaguars benefited a tremendous amount from these. To make up for this I gave them credit for every PAT they missed to add some points they should have gotten. Here is the game by game. 1) Texans - scored 30 and 16 were legit 2) Titans - scored 16 and should've had 17 missed PAT. 14 were with 10 minutes left down 27 though 3) Ravens - scored 44 and 23 were legit - one of their best offensive days. 4) Jets - scored 20 and 10 were legit. 5) Steelers - scored 30 and 9 were legit 6) Rams - scored 17 and 10 were legit. 7) Colts - scored 27 and 20 were legit 8) Bengals - scored 23 and 16 were legit 9) Chargers - scored 20 and 10 were legit 10) Browns -scored 20 and 6 were legit 11) Cards - scored 24 and 10 were legit 12) Colts - scored 30 and 30 were legit (best offensive game of the year for them) 13) Seahawks - scored 30 and 9-16 were legit (I was torn on how to grade this one) 14) Texans - scored 45 and and 21 were legit 15) 49ers - scored 33 and 31 for legit (though 14 of those happened really late against prevent and 1 on a short field due to a successful onside kick. You could argue they did worse) 16) Titans - scored 10 points and and 3 were legit. p1) Bills - scored 10 point and 10 were legit. Maybe 3 not though... Kinda a short FG drive. p2) Steelers - 45 points scored and 28 were legit.. Then again you could argue they scored on Pitt early before they realized they had to actually play a football game and the 2 late scores were aided by a tossed up prayer pass for 40-something and a 40 yard short pass that should have only gone for 5 yards or nothing if played better. Anyway the if you run all the "legit" points you get between 15.5-14.33 PPG offensively. Keep in mind some of those points were against teams that have arguably already given up on the year and some were very late vs prevent. Perhaps you might think their offense preformed poorly cause they faced a hard defensive schedule. Actually it is the opposite. In opposing defensive PPG they faced the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL. They continually faced some of the easiest defenses the NFL had to offer. The point is this. If the Patriots offense and STs doesn't help the Jags O and the D doesn't give up cheap easy chunk plays (A staple of this D) it is very possible to argue the Jags might be hard pressed to get to double digits.