The real reveal: Home vs. Road

[ivanvamp]

This is like one of the most stark home-road splits I've seen the Pats have under Belichick.

Home:
- 6-0
- 33.5 points per game
- 446.7 yards per game
- 19.7 points allowed per game
- 337.8 yards allowed per game

Road:
- 3-4 (4 games worse in the loss column)
- 23.3 points per game (10.2 points worse)
- 353.9 yards per game (92.8 yards worse)
- 25.0 points allowed per game (5.3 points worse)
- 402.1 yards allowed per game (64.3 yards worse)

So....

- At home they're +13.8 points per game. On the road they're -1.7 points per game.
- At home they're +108.9 yards per game. On the road they're -48.2 yards per game.

This team, more than any other in recent memory, needs home field in the playoffs. I don't think they're getting the #1 seed barring a sort of miracle, but if they can get the #2 seed, they get the bye, then hopefully be in good shape to win in the divisional round, and make it to the AFCCG. And KC could lose in their home game in the divisional round, that would be the hope.

 

[mcmurtry86]

Small sample bias

The talent is the same regardless of where they play

None of the places they have lost on the road have been incredible HFA in terms of noise. Shouldn’t be a factor

 

[PittPatriot]

Small sample bias

The talent is the same regardless of where they play

None of the places they have lost on the road have been incredible HFA in terms of noise. Shouldn’t be a factor

This team likes playing at home...but seems to lose its footing on the road.

 

[Mack Herron]

Small sample bias

The talent is the same regardless of where they play

None of the places they have lost on the road have been incredible HFA in terms of noise. Shouldn’t be a factor

Actually, the difference between home and away records as great (or greater than) the Patriots' disparity would occur due to "small sample bias" (chance) fewer than 3 times in 100, meaning the difference is statistically significant and unlikely to be due to "small sample bias." The players were the same home and away, but their performance was not.

 

[TomPatriot]

So then why do they play poorly in the road?

 

[Kontradiction]

This just means they're closer to the 2009 team than they are any of the Super Bowl winning squads. They're not mentally tough which is quite a surprise given who is coaching the team.

 

[Mark.]

This just means they're closer to the 2009 team than they are any of the Super Bowl winning squads. They're not mentally tough which is quite a surprise given who is coaching the team.

That 2009 team was so frustrating to watch. This team seems to lose focus- like the last play yesterday and Brady taking a sack before the half. I read he thought they had a timeout. How does Brady not know info like that? Not sure BB gets this team more mentally tough. Wouldn't want to be at practice this week.

 

[Kontradiction]

That 2009 team was so frustrating to watch. This team seems to lose focus- like the last play yesterday and Brady taking a sack before the half. I read he thought they had a timeout. How does Brady not know info like that? Not sure BB gets this team more mentally tough. Wouldn't want to be at practice this week.

Earlier this week, I posted to expect a lot of uncharacteristic errors by this team in Miami. It just usually seems to play like that. That play would qualify as one of them. Gost suddenly missing chip shots would qualify as another. The coaching staff as a whole prepping for a Hail Mary with a gimpy TE given that field position and the fact that they were playing against a gimpy QB would be another.

 

[Tony2046]

So then why do they play poorly in the road?

I don't know but a few thoughts have crossed my mind:

1. Muddy field minimizes speed and quickness advantages?

2. They need to start staying in Holiday Inn Express when on the road?

Strange game. The defense sacked the QB 5 times but gave up a ton of rushing yards. The offense put up a ton of yards and 33 points but only 6 in the second half. Special teams came up with some nice plays including two blocked punts but missed putting up 4 points on the board.

Ehh. We're on to Pittsburgh I guess. If this team puts ever puts it all together on the same day they can beat any team. Let's hope they do that sometime this season.

 

[Mark.]

Earlier this week, I posted to expect a lot of uncharacteristic errors by this team in Miami. It just usually seems to play like that. That play would qualify as one of them. Gost suddenly missing chip shots would qualify as another. The coaching staff as a whole prepping for a Hail Mary with a gimpy TE given that field position and the fact that they were playing against a gimpy QB would be another.

Man, I hate it when you're right.

 

[BelichickFan]

1. Muddy field minimizes speed and quickness advantages?

The Patriots are neither fast nor quick so this should be to our advantage.

How the hell we won @Chicago I have no idea but this team is an embarassment on the road, they weren't even competitive @Jax, @Det, @Ten and they aren't good teams.

Maybe this past game (at least they were competitive) will shock them into playing better for this last regular season road game but right now they are awful on the road.

 

[sean10mm]

This just means they're closer to the 2009 team than they are any of the Super Bowl winning squads. They're not mentally tough which is quite a surprise given who is coaching the team.

I mean, the 2009 team had the same coach, too.

Coaching only takes you so far. At some point you need enough front 7 players who aren't soft at the point of attack and who won't get clowned on the most basic kinds of misdirection over and over again.

Having any speed there is also helpful.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Actually, the difference between home and away records as great (or greater than) the Patriots' disparity would occur due to "small sample bias" (chance) fewer than 3 times in 100, meaning the difference is statistically significant and unlikely to be due to "small sample bias." The players were the same home and away, but their performance was not.

Interesting. How do you calaculate this?

 

[Mack Herron]

Interesting. How do you calaculate this?

Statistics 101. There are even on line calculators:
Z Score Calculator for 2 Population Proportions

 

[Tony2046]

The Patriots are neither fast nor quick so this should be to our advantage.

How the hell we won @Chicago I have no idea but this team is an embarassment on the road, they weren't even competitive @Jax, @Det, @Ten and they aren't good teams.

Maybe this past game (at least they were competitive) will shock them into playing better for this last regular season road game but right now they are awful on the road.

The Pats have speed in the secondary and elite speed on the offense. But yes they haven't been good on the road.

 

[captain stone]

Simple explanation for the home/road disparity:

They're finesse, gutless front-runners.

 

[BelichickFan]

The Pats have speed in the secondary and elite speed on the offense. But yes they haven't been good on the road.

Elite speed on offense? No they don't. They are below average in speed. Dorsett is the only one who maybe has elite speed and he rarely plays. Gordon, Edelman (he is quick, I'll give him that), Hogan, Gronk, the RBs, none of them are fast let alone elite with regards to speed.

The secondary has some speed but also a lot of aging slow (McCourtey times two, Chung and also Harmon who was never fast).

This is a slow team.

 

[Tony2046]

Elite speed on offense? No they don't. They are below average in speed. Dorsett is the only one who maybe has elite speed and he rarely plays. Gordon, Edelman (he is quick, I'll give him that), Hogan, Gronk, the RBs, none of them are fast let alone elite with regards to speed.

The secondary has some speed but also a lot of aging slow (McCourtey times two, Chung and also Harmon who was never fast).

This is a slow team.

Jason McCourty - 4.3

Devin McCourty- 4.4 and was clocked recently at 22 mph which the fastest time measured this season by a ball carrier.

Gilmore 4.38

Dorsett- 4.26

Patterson- 4.42 - A big, tall WR with speed.

Edelman - 4.51 and quick.

Josh Gordon?? - I don't know. 4.4 - 4.5 ? Another big, tall WR with speed and great hands.

White - 4.57 and quick. Great hands.

They're not a slow team in the secondary or in the receiving corp.

But you're right. They haven't played well on the road.

 

[tasmlab]

I'm not sure if the losses to Lions and Jags told us much about the team (no Gordon or Edelman, September games), and it took a miracle (the media's word, not mine) to lose to Miami.

But yea they will have to play great on the road if/when the playoffs require it.

 

[mosi]

Simple explanation for the home/road disparity:

They're finesse, gutless front-runners.

Ouch. A bit harsh.