We will see. For some reason I have the feeling the Bucs will win. i haven't looked at the game at all but here are the first thoughts with popped into my mind
1 - No Eric Fisher against that outside pass rush is deadly.
2 - The Bucs ability to stop the run is real and will be a factor. While I don't value the run much, it isn't entirely not valuable.
3 - Brady was on such a hot streak going into the NFCCG, and finally it ended. He got the mistakes he was due for out of the way. That's good.
4 - People underestimated the Bucs D all playoffs. They should know now that it is substantially better than KC. And that difference will matter.
5 - Mahomes hasn't thrown a pick or had a fumble in the last 2 playoff games, and they played subpar to average Ds in both. He is due to make a turnover or two, and the jump in opponent ability may help that happen.
6 - You can talk about Hill and KC's speed and watch the tape all you want, but you need to experience it first hand. The Bucs did and that will help them be more ready this time.
7 - The Bucs will be healthy and the WRs still haven't had close to a clean game all playoffs. Which is odd cause they had them before. They are now way over due for a non-multiple drop game. I very much believe in the 'due' factor when it comes to betting propositions involving people.
8 - KC just had their best game of the year. It is unlikely they rise to that level again.
9 - Arians appears to be stepping back and letting Brady cook. There was too much of the run-run-pass early but they got away from, which did them well to end the half. That is a good thing. They won't beat KC running into a brick wall on first down.
10 - The HFA for the Bucs will be real. Not so much by the elements or crowd noise, but mentally. They have won 3 road games to get here. They will be home and will finally feel some of that pressure and tension that popped up on the road leave, and feel like they can play their best. KC has played at home twice and now the feeling of going on the road might be odd for them. I see this as more a mental than physical thing. The Bucs will come into this game feeling good, but not arrogant, and looking for revenge for that last home loss, Which is the last game they lost this year before their run. I believe in the 'revenge factor' IF you have a team with the proper make up. The Bucs have it. GB didn't. The Bills didn't. I think it is a very human X factor sports people underestimate. The old 'we got the superbowl in OUR HOUSE'. We are not going to let this team BEAT US TWICE IN OUR HOUSE!. I think there is something to that with this team.
