The 2013 Prospect Thread

[Snake Eyes]

The new guy Joe Kruger

Joe Kruger vs BYU (2012) - YouTube

Very nice, he's got a nice jump off the line and is a handful for the O-linemen.

 

[manxman2601]

But Mackenzie says he sucks. :bricks:

I'll tell you what I see in him which I don't like, and I saw it again in the Fiesta Bowl. When he rushes the passer, he only tries to speed rush the OT which means that he flies pass the QB but can get so far downfield that sometimes he's out of camera shot. Nick Perry did the same sort of thing in video I saw last year. Didn't like it then either. That's not necessarily a bad thing in and of itself, but I think that'll lead to some struggles in the NFL a) because QB's release quicker and he needs time to get back up to the QB and B) because NFL LT's will be able to sustain the block for longer. It also means that OC's can take advantage of the huge space he creates.

As a DE I'm not all that keen on him. as a 3-4 OLB I rate him slightly higher because he can at least drop into coverage. You wouldn't want him setting the edge though. As a 4-3 OLB, I think he's much much better because the assignments better suit his skillset; rush the passer, drop into coverage, chase down runners.

 

[manxman2601]

Sorry Manx, Joyner is NOT declaring.

https://twitter.com/Warchant_DC/status/286958770754551808

That's fine. Actually hoped he'd go back. In my mock for next year.

 

[mayoclinic]

Nice write up on Kent St. OL Brian Winters:

Kent State left tackle Winters set to begin pursuit of NFL career following GoDaddy.Com Bowl - The Record Courier

 

[mayoclinic]

Where would you play him Mayo?

He won't be a DE at the next level but he will be able to neutralize a dominant TE in the passing game.

As a DE I'm not all that keen on him. as a 3-4 OLB I rate him slightly higher because he can at least drop into coverage. You wouldn't want him setting the edge though. As a 4-3 OLB, I think he's much much better because the assignments better suit his skillset; rush the passer, drop into coverage, chase down runners.

I agree, I wouldn't use him as a full time line person. He doesn't have the strength or edge setting ability, and bulking him up to 275# or so would take time and would probably impair his fluidity. His best asset is his movement in space, and he's probably best as a 4-3 SLB. NE Patriots' Draft compared him to Mathias Kiwanuka, and that's probably not a bad starting point, though Jordan is much more fluid. I'd use him in space and move him around, drop him back. Put him on the line on occasion, but only situationally.

My problem with Jordan is that I've always loved his skill set, but I'm not sure that I would use a 1st round pick on him. Top 50, certainly. But I tend to want a more "complete" player in the 1st Then again, Seattle used a top 15 pick on Bruce Irvin, so it all depends on how a team sees value. There's no doubt that his skill set can create mismatches, and that may be enough value.

 

[manxman2601]

So do you think Minter may bump Ogletree down a few spots? Ogletree is a more freakish physical talent, but Minter is more of a pure physical ILB for a team like the Ravens looking to establish an inside presence. The Bears could look at Ogletree as an Urlacher replacement, but they've pretty much said that they want to establish their offense.

Dane Brugler has Minter going 29th to Houston in his most recent mock. Neither Brugler nor Rob Rang have Ogletree going in the 1st round. Interesting.

2013 NFL Mock Drafts - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

I agree, I wouldn't use him as a full time line person. He doesn't have the strength or edge setting ability, and bulking him up to 275# or so would take time and would probably impair his fluidity. His best asset is his movement in space, and he's probably best as a 4-3 SLB. NE Patriots' Draft compared him to Mathias Kiwanuka, and that's probably not a bad starting point, though Jordan is much more fluid. I'd use him in space and move him around, drop him back. Put him on the line on occasion, but only situationally.

My problem with Jordan is that I've always loved his skill set, but I'm not sure that I would use a 1st round pick on him. Top 50, certainly. But I tend to want a more "complete" player in the 1st Then again, Seattle used a top 15 pick on Bruce Irvin, so it all depends on how a team sees value. There's no doubt that his skill set can create mismatches, and that may be enough value.

I quoted these two together because I think they're similar in nature. for the same reason you're not keen on taking Jordan in the first, I'm sort of there on Ogletree too. The reason why I have Minter ranked ahead of Ogletree is that Minter is a MLB, wither in a 3-4 or 4-3. He can play every down and is the main guy in the LB corps. Ogletree probably doesn't have the strength to play MLB in the NFL and will get lost playing in the box. He's a WLB in a 4-3 at the NFL level. I think he's a player you can get creative with and use him on most downs but you don't want him as a key component at stopping the run. He's a playmaker and his athleticism is outstanding but not great value as a first round pick for the Pats.

So whilst Jordan and Ogletree are very different prospects, they are also very similar in their respective values to the Pats.

 

[mayoclinic]

Dion jordan is going to be well out of reach come Draft day.

I quoted these two together because I think they're similar in nature. for the same reason you're not keen on taking Jordan in the first, I'm sort of there on Ogletree too. The reason why I have Minter ranked ahead of Ogletree is that Minter is a MLB, wither in a 3-4 or 4-3. He can play every down and is the main guy in the LB corps. Ogletree probably doesn't have the strength to play MLB in the NFL and will get lost playing in the box. He's a WLB in a 4-3 at the NFL level. I think he's a player you can get creative with and use him on most downs but you don't want him as a key component at stopping the run. He's a playmaker and his athleticism is outstanding but not great value as a first round pick for the Pats.

So whilst Jordan and Ogletree are very different prospects, they are also very similar in their respective values to the Pats.

I've sort of seen it that way. I also wonder whether those kind of playmakers - like Bruce Irvin last year - have more value to a team with most of its pieces already in place looking to add a versatile, athletic guy who can create mismatches, than to a team needing a core building block.

The Pats have most of the foundation pieces in place, assuming Talib stays. Adding a "wild card" like Ogletree or Jordan who can create mismatches wouldn't be a bad thing.

 

[mackenzie45220]

http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/3980/screenshot20130103at742.png

He plays nickel corner all the time. I'm shocked you didn't know that.



Like I said, it's difficult.



Werner plays on the across from the RT, Nixon is the LT vs Florida St.

Still, 106th O-line

 

[mackenzie45220]

What site has that kind of stat breakdown?

I looked at game logs, and looked at O-line rankings on the NCAA website, and did it myself

 

[mackenzie45220]

http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/3980/screenshot20130103at742.png

He plays nickel corner all the time. I'm shocked you didn't know that.



Like I said, it's difficult.



Werner plays on the across from the RT, Nixon is the LT vs Florida St.

I haven't finished the Stanford game, but I didn't see him play it in the first quarter.
Actually, come to think of it, I'm not 100% sure I saw Stanford come out in a 3 receiver set in the first quarter. That may have something to do with it.

 

[mackenzie45220]

I'll tell you what I see in him which I don't like, and I saw it again in the Fiesta Bowl. When he rushes the passer, he only tries to speed rush the OT which means that he flies pass the QB but can get so far downfield that sometimes he's out of camera shot. Nick Perry did the same sort of thing in video I saw last year. Didn't like it then either. That's not necessarily a bad thing in and of itself, but I think that'll lead to some struggles in the NFL a) because QB's release quicker and he needs time to get back up to the QB and B) because NFL LT's will be able to sustain the block for longer. It also means that OC's can take advantage of the huge space he creates.

As a DE I'm not all that keen on him. as a 3-4 OLB I rate him slightly higher because he can at least drop into coverage. You wouldn't want him setting the edge though. As a 4-3 OLB, I think he's much much better because the assignments better suit his skillset; rush the passer, drop into coverage, chase down runners.

That's pretty much what I see from him. The only thing he knows how to do is speed rush. I don't think he's a viable pass rusher until learns how to use a swim move or anything just to be a counter to his speed rush. I agree about his abilities in coverage, but I don't think he's that great against the run either. His instincts are very poor and he can't create any penetration against the run

 

[mackenzie45220]

Doing my horizontal board. 2nd Round looking pretty good. Would be nice to get a 2 for Mallett and a cond'l pick. Have 12-15 guys I like for 3rd too. I don't rank them, just where I think they will be picked. For example, I don't like any of the qb's. But, you know some of them will be picked. And, I know some of the guys haven't declared yet either. Nowhere near final but maybe something like this right now;

Round 1
QB - Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson
RB - None
WR - Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Hunter
TE - Tyler Eiffert
OT - Luke Joeckel, Taylor Lewan, Eric Fisher
G - Chance Warmack, Jon Cooper
C - None

DT - Star Lotulelei, J. Hankins, J. Jenkins, S.Richardson, Jesse Williams and Shariff Floyd
DE - Bjorn Werner, Demontre Moore, Dion Jordan, Ezekial Ansah and Sam Montgomery
LB - Jarvis Jones, Manti Te'o, B. Mingo and A. Ogletree
S - Eric Reid and Matt Elam
CB - Dee Milliner, Xavier Rhodes and J. Banks

Round 2
QB Matt Glennon, Tyler Bray and Aaron Murray
RB G. Bernard and L. Bell
TE Z. Ertz
WR T. Austin, T. Williams, R. Woods and C. Patterson
OT O. Aboushi, L. Johnson
OG D. Thomas, L. Warford
C B. Jones

DT - Sylvester Williams, K. Short
DE . Margus Hunt, Alex Okafor and C. Lemonier
LB - K. Greene, Arthur Brown, S. Skov and K. Minter
S - K. Vaccarro, TJ McDonald and T. Jefferson
CB - D. Amerson. J. Poyer and L. Ryan

Baker's Dozen Not Picked
R. Nassib - QB
M. Ball - RB
Denard Robinson - RB
M. Wheaton - WR
S. Bailey - WR
Q. Patton - WR
B. Winters - OL
D. Carradine - DE
G. Hodges - LB
C. Thomas - LB
B. Rambo - S
P. Thomas - S
M. Trufant - CB

Definitely believe Kawann Short needs to be in the first round

 

[mayoclinic]

Definitely believe Kawann Short needs to be in the first round

I certainly hope so, just not for us.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Definitely believe Kawann Short needs to be in the first round

DL is pretty fluid. I downgraded S. Williams and Short a little because of age. 25 and 24 in their rookie years. But, I can see them being picked ahead of Floyd and Montgomery. Same with Margus Hunt, he will be 26. Okafor could move up too. Strong position. No superstars. But, quite a few pretty good players. Overall, a pretty deep draft on the defensive side of the ball.

 

[mackenzie45220]

Just wrote about Rontez Miles. Enjoy.
Rontez Miles- 2013 NFL Draft Scouting Report - NFL Mocks - 2013 NFL Mock Draft, Fantasy Football, NFL News, and NFL Mock Draft Databases

 

[Huckleberry1]

Just so people know the "basis" of my comment on Dion Jordan. I like the Draft and read up on the prospects but i don't watch much college football and don't believe you-tube gives any insight whatsoever. I have limited information that comes from other people, much of which is just the redundant scouting reports. Most of my information comes from Draft scout, which i have only begun to look at. So IN NO WAY do I know much of anything, if anything, only what i have read about these prospects. I honestly have no idea how well Dion Jordan has played for oregon and based my comment on Jordan on the dynamic in the draft process where great athletes rise during the lead up to the draft, whereas players who are really good football players with a ton of film to back that up tend to drop if they don't have the athleticism of other prospects. Numbers play during the lead up to the draft imo. I don't agree with it but i see it every year. So when kid like Jordan starts as high as he does, and is likely to have really good combine and workout numbers, then they almost always go up the board, unless there is a serious gliche along the way.

I love the Draft and looking at at he prospects and talking about them but when it comes to actual knowledge i have none, and don't pretend to be any kind of expert on any of these guys. That doesn't mean I don't have players I want the Patriots to either take or pass on, I always do (Lavonte David eg...), I just don't give myself any credibility on these matters.

 

[mackenzie45220]

Just so people know the "basis" of my comment on Dion Jordan. I like the Draft and read up on the prospects but i don't watch much college football and don't believe you-tube gives any insight whatsoever. I have limited information that comes from other people, much of which is just the redundant scouting reports. Most of my information comes from Draft scout, which i have only begun to look at. So IN NO WAY do I know much of anything, if anything, only what i have read about these prospects. I honestly have no idea how well Dion Jordan has played for oregon and based my comment on Jordan on the dynamic in the draft process where great athletes rise during the lead up to the draft, whereas players who are really good football players with a ton of film to back that up tend to drop if they don't have the athleticism of other prospects. Numbers play during the lead up to the draft imo. I don't agree with it but i see it every year. So when kid like Jordan starts as high as he does, and is likely to have really good combine and workout numbers, then they almost always go up the board, unless there is a serious gliche along the way.

I love the Draft and looking at at he prospects and talking about them but when it comes to actual knowledge i have none, and don't pretend to be any kind of expert on any of these guys. That doesn't mean I don't have players I want the Patriots to either take or pass on, I always do (Lavonte David eg...), I just don't give myself any credibility on these matters.

I'm just like you when I have to write a scouting report on a guy with an injury history. I watch 300 games a year, but that doesn't make me a doctor. I try so hard to be humble

 

[mackenzie45220]

Just so people know the "basis" of my comment on Dion Jordan. I like the Draft and read up on the prospects but i don't watch much college football and don't believe you-tube gives any insight whatsoever. I have limited information that comes from other people, much of which is just the redundant scouting reports. Most of my information comes from Draft scout, which i have only begun to look at. So IN NO WAY do I know much of anything, if anything, only what i have read about these prospects. I honestly have no idea how well Dion Jordan has played for oregon and based my comment on Jordan on the dynamic in the draft process where great athletes rise during the lead up to the draft, whereas players who are really good football players with a ton of film to back that up tend to drop if they don't have the athleticism of other prospects. Numbers play during the lead up to the draft imo. I don't agree with it but i see it every year. So when kid like Jordan starts as high as he does, and is likely to have really good combine and workout numbers, then they almost always go up the board, unless there is a serious gliche along the way.

I love the Draft and looking at at he prospects and talking about them but when it comes to actual knowledge i have none, and don't pretend to be any kind of expert on any of these guys. That doesn't mean I don't have players I want the Patriots to either take or pass on, I always do (Lavonte David eg...), I just don't give myself any credibility on these matters.

One thing you should know about YouTube; I have several TiVo's, so I don't usually need to use it, but there are videos made by draft geeks which show a certain player during every play he is in during a game, for good and for bad. You can actually learn something about a player in a video like this.
Zac Dysert vs Ohio State (2012) - YouTube
Every pass Dysert attempted against Ohio State. The good ones, and the bad ones (most are good, Dysert might be my favorite quarterback of the class, supporting cast is hilariously bad)

 

[Huckleberry1]

One thing you should know about YouTube; I have several TiVo's, so I don't usually need to use it, but there are videos made by draft geeks which show a certain player during every play he is in during a game, for good and for bad. You can actually learn something about a player in a video like this.
Zac Dysert vs Ohio State (2012) - YouTube
Every pass Dysert attempted against Ohio State. The good ones, and the bad ones (most are good, Dysert might be my favorite quarterback of the class, supporting cast is hilariously bad)

I think those who actually watch the games and players closely have more information but the problem is that unless they actually understand every scheme and corresponding assignments they really don't have any idea of what player's were asked to do and what they did. Where footage does give insight is direct 1/1 match-ups where you can see if an OL or DL was owned by there corresponding player. Unfortunately I think what too often happens is people who pay attention to the draft come away believing they actually know better than the team scouting departments on draft day, and that imo is complete and total crap. There are a number of posters here for instance who insist they could do a better job than Belichick and you simply cannot be more deluded than that.

 

[mackenzie45220]

I think those who actually watch the games and players closely have more information but the problem is that unless they actually understand every scheme and corresponding assignments they really don't have any idea of what player's were asked to do and what they did. Where footage does give insight is direct 1/1 match-ups where you can see if an OL or DL was owned by there corresponding player. Unfortunately I think what too often happens is people who pay attention to the draft come away believing they actually know better than the team scouting departments on draft day, and that imo is complete and total crap. There are a number of posters here for instance who insist they could do a better job than Belichick and you simply cannot be more deluded than that.

I read about 10 coaching books every offseason. I don't know as much as Belichick, but I'm as good as anyone on the internet. It's tough to get a feel for certain zone coverage schemes when the camera only shows one side of the field (the side the ball went to), but I have a fairly good understanding of what's going on